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checklist34 (99.80)

10 bagger bazaar

Recs

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October 15, 2009 – Comments (15)

I am absolutely amazed to report that its recently occured to me that I have some 10 baggers. 

BZ, GNW, CEM (now in bankruptcy as cemjq.pk), GGP (also now in bankruptcy as something insane), TCK, and LVS.  A couple call options are also 10 baggers but those don't really count I guess. MGM and TCK calls have run 10x ++ in the time i've owned them. 

MCGC is likely to wind up one, ACAS and ALD still have some chance in the fullness of time.  XL, HIG, ASH and CNO have a good chance (i did  not buy the bottom in CNO, congrats to everybody who did), PNX has at least some chance even if it is a disaster.  A couple other call positions have a chance also.  LEE and MNI have a chance.  ODP has a good chance.  TNL has a shot. 

Being more optimistic, RJET has some chance (i did catch the very bitter bottom for some shares), JOEZ may make it. 

And if I hold a long time or a big bull market breaks out ...

Thats how insane this crash and rebound have been.  I was down 25% at once point overall, down on every single stock I ever bought except GRNB and RRGB (I've since sold RRGB).  Everything else I ever bought I was down on at one point, often by alot, often by a whole lot.  10 months and 6 10 baggers (not on all shares of any of those BTW, just on some shares). 

Crazy stuff. 

And the market is still down 30% from where it was almost 10 years ago.  More if you view it in other currencies. 

Crazy, crazy stuff.

I would like to offer for anybodies consideration, including my own:  are we sure that bearishness (provided one has a long term perspective) is warranted here?  The S&P is down what?  50% in Euro's in the last 9ish years?  30% in dollars?  In history, ever, has that been a bad long term entry point?  The only precedent is the great depression.  Even in the 70's there wasn't a point when stocks were this much lower than at some point so long in the past.  To counter that, ... in 2000 the market was at an unprecedentedly high valuation after an unprecedented bull run. 

If markets tend to confound popular belief...  whats the one thing nobody expects?  an ongoing bull and new highs, a strong economic recovery, and all of that.  I'm not predicting we'll get any of those, i'm just observing that, historically, the marmket is still notably downbeaten. 

 

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 16, 2009 at 12:53 AM, Momentum21 (98.18) wrote:

why aren't you making any picks lately? cmon man...get in the game. : )

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#2) On October 16, 2009 at 12:59 AM, awallejr (80.10) wrote:

Well I keep saying it depends on how you look at the market, from the top down or the bottom up.  I take the former view.  While stocks have risen alot since March, many are still down alot nevertheless.  Profit take, sure, but we still have alot of upside potential assuming no unforeseeable catastrophe. 

Ultimately the market is cyclical.  Always has been, and no reason to think it won't continue to be.  It becomes a question of "degree."  I think we are at the early stages of a cyclical uptick, but that is my opinion.  I don't think it will be robust, but I think if emerging markets are beginning to concentrate on improrving their own standards of living, that should help the markets overall.  I do have stagflation concerns more than inflation/deflation, but who knows.

I've given plenty stock/option play advice during this rally.  I don't know if anyone listened to it, aside from Sean67 heheh, but I continue to maintain the best play is the oil/commodity/high dividend yield thesis.

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#3) On October 16, 2009 at 1:40 AM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

Good old "10 bagger" stocks and options. My by far largest position is a long position in a few different plain vanilla (mostly out of the money) call options on EMC. Those high beta stocks you mention were not really in need of additional leverage.

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#4) On October 16, 2009 at 1:45 AM, ozzfan1317 (79.39) wrote:

I made 40% on a couple of my stocks however I have started looking at more small caps now. Congratulations hope you have a few more.

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#5) On October 16, 2009 at 2:46 AM, LakerSteve (< 20) wrote:

So many stocks, so little free cash.  If anybody has the stomach for gambling on a penny stock, take a look at Eco-Safe Systems USA.  I'm not associated with the company or anything (this definitely isn't a pump and dump thing) but I saw a news story on the company at the beginning of the year and I've since been buying shares in small bunches.

Basically, they manufacture and install water treatment systems that disinfect water by ozonating it.  This kills bacteria like ecoli and other viruses and toxins like salmonella and botulism.  The technology is simple but the applications are endless.

I'm hoping for a 10-50 bagger.  Think I'm crazy?  Take a look at the website and let me know...

http://www.ecosafesystemsusa.com/index.html 

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#6) On October 16, 2009 at 2:59 AM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

Momentum, a few reasons I guess.  The first and most important is that I am simply not quite sure what to do from here in real life or on th eCAPs game.  The screaming bargains that vertiably abounded earlier in the year don't exist any longer...  And I took over the management of my own portfolio (in real life) in the crash to buy screaming bargains.  The results have been breathtaking, but...

today there aren't many "good lord this is a sure bet" bargains as far as I can tell.  Also, I've never done research on a stock just for the CAPs game, and in real life the only moves i've made lately are to short a fair number of CNO puts, and shorted a ton of RIMM puts and went long a ton of RIMM calls, all for jan 2011.  So I guess I could green thumb RIMM. 

I guess I knew what ot do early in the year when the market was crashing, but today I'm just honestly not sure exactly what to do.

And, frankly, I think waiting for big, nasty, "obvious" bets and betting big on them is going to be more my style in the future than making many bets for the short term.  And as such...  I may not have all that many CAPs game picks going forward.

I may start a new portfolio and attempt a long/short strategy.

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#7) On October 16, 2009 at 3:03 AM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

Porte, the MGM calls had, for a moment, a bit of irrational pricing so I bought them instead of shares.  The TCK calls were bought after they announced a solution to their debt situation and the stock popped to the 8-9ish range.  I bought a large number of calls and shorted the same number of puts.  At $9 this presented leverage on what I judged to be a certain bet:  that TCK would go much higher than $9. 

In each case I made mor emoney that way than I could have otherwise.

But generally, yes, its sensible to limit this type of position to something like RIMM where it isn't likely to double but its highly likely to move higher one day. 

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#8) On October 16, 2009 at 3:27 AM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

thanks ozz :)

steve, there isn't any info about eco-safe systems on yahoo at all.  does it have business, like revenue and book value and all?

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#9) On October 16, 2009 at 3:50 AM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

awall, I have a tleast one holding that was your advice (yours and portes), ATPG.  I haven't read anything about it i just bought some deep in th emoney calls on you guys recommendation.  I did miss it when you first presented the idea to me, to my own loss.  It was a fantastic idea then (at $7ish).

I will fax the "checklist blew it by not listening to me" papers if you fax them over.

The market is cyclic and we are now in an already fairly long secular bear that began in 2000.  looking back on the DJIA since 1929...  We have a long secular bear lasting 12ish years from 1930-1942, somewhere in there. 

We then had a long secular bull lasting from 1942ish to the mid/late 60's.  20-25 years.

We then had a very long secular bear lasting from the mid-late 60's until 1982.  15ish years.  This saw the DJIA lower at one point in 1982 than it had been at one point in 1964.  18 years with no progress (today we're only at 12). 

And then the spectacular bull market that ran from 1982 up to the nasdaq bubble. 

And then the miserable decade that began with the popping of the nasdaq bubble. 

Its interesting to note that the DJIA went FAR higher in 2007 than it did in 2000 but the S&P didn't.  Those blue-chips were largely neglected during the nasdaq frenzie of the lat e90s. 

looking at the S&P 500, ... the bear cycles look shorter and the bull cycles longer, but this isn't a precise excercise so we won't worry about that.

So historically the bull cycles have run 15-25 years and the bear cycles have run 10-15. 

It follows that this bear cycle may have a little more, um... time left on the clock.  That doesn't mean we'll have another crash necessarily, but w/o any ecnomic analysis and just a look at how long the bad cycles have lasted in the past, it seems like if march 2009 was the end of this one, it would be on the short side.

Thats part of why I wonder if at some point here one should make an exit or at least a change to low-beta blue chip divi stocks...  Because, just simply looking at how long the bear cycles have lasted in the past, it seems like we may have another round and mayb eone more chance to buy a crash or a prolonged slow slump or something.  Maybe the way 1979 followed 1974.  No real crash, but the market had sputtered sideways for a while and gotten cheaper than it had been in, say, 1975.

I got nothing.  So far my recent beraishness has not paid off and I am nicely underwater on some of my hedges.  oh well, lol.

 

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#10) On October 16, 2009 at 9:35 AM, bothisellhigher (29.56) wrote:

For the last year I have been solidly in the bull camp.  Gold in particular...and have made more than a couple of pieces of eight investing in AUY...so of course it has become dear to me. 

I sold everything and went to cash two days ago...my thinking is that 1100 S+P is just about it...then the correction everyone has been talking about begins...?...taking gold and silver and everything else under for awhile...as per Good Vibe's analysis, the strengthening dollar will presage the downturn...and that seems to be happening now...I lasted all of one day in cash...a touch on the antsy side and yesterday threw it all at ZSL (shorting silver) and was astonished at how well it did...My gut instinct is that Good Vibe has this downturn nailed...I plan to short it (precious metals, and bank short ETF's) and jump back into gold (AUY) when it ends. 

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#11) On October 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

My target for the year was also S&P 1100, sellhigher.

I'm not in a position to go to all cash, however, for a variety of reasons.  I do hold a great number of hedges.  Frankly, I wouldn't bet too big on a profound downturn, so far earnings have been mixed, not horrible.  And in BAC's loss there is the foundation for future earnings upside in the large loss reserve build.

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#12) On October 17, 2009 at 12:19 AM, awallejr (80.10) wrote:

You see the potential too in BAC .  Good.  I said elsewhere the Merrill Lynch merger will help it down the road.  Buy this stock on the pullbacks if you have a greater horizon than  one week.  Or sell 2011 puts. 

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#13) On October 17, 2009 at 6:37 PM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

hey awall, i agree with your ideas.  in-the-money 2011 calls are also a nice buy on a pullback.  not alot of time premium in them and gives modest leverage.  I don't like buying calls at or above th emoney as I just don't like being long time decay.

BAC is one of my biggest positions and while i'd like to say that I bought it at the bottom, I didn't.  I took the position largely in the $10 range in june/july.  about 1/2 shares and about 1/2 long calls at $5 and short puts at $10. 

 

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#14) On November 03, 2009 at 8:35 PM, LakerSteve (< 20) wrote:

Hey Checklist,

I just noticed you asked about financial info for ESFS.  Well...that seems to be the rub for many of these small companies.  However, I don't think it's because they're hiding anything - you can read their year end audits on there website:

http://www.ecosafesystemsusa.com/certifiedaudits.html 

If you do some digging around there is some very compelling info/news out there.

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Eco-Safe-Systems-Usa-Inc-1069745.html 

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Eco-Safe-Systems-Usa-Inc-1065004.html

We all know there is no such thing as a sure thing but I feel pretty confident this company isn't going bankrupt any time soon.  And at .13 per share who knows what can happen...

 

-Steve K. in L.A. 

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#15) On December 21, 2010 at 4:05 PM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

update, wound up down on GRNB, or part of the position, in the end anyway

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