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alstry (35.64)

10% to 20% Unemployment VERY SOON!!!!

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November 20, 2008 – Comments (10)

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bank of New York Mellon Corp. said late Thursday it is cutting 1,800 jobs, or about 4% of its worldwide workforce.

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- First-time claims for U.S. unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since 1992, a sign the labor market is deteriorating as the economic slump deepens.

We are already over 6% unemployment.  Companies are shedding 4-10% of their workforces without blinking an eye.  You are reading about it everywhere now....but few are connecting the dots.  Many businesses are shutting down completely.  The pace of layoffs is increasing and likely to keep increasing for the foreseeable future and slowdown begets further slowdown.

Fewer and fewer are paying taxes leaving a much bigger burden on those that can pay taxes.  Trillion dollar deficits will be commonplace.

We are just beginning to lose control as evidenced by the stock market.  Now even Paulson is calling this a once in a hundred year event. 

Just get in your lifeboat and all will likely be fine.....espeically if you bring along your favorite drink and a few people that you enjoy partying with.......

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 20, 2008 at 8:04 PM, Tastylunch (29.41) wrote:

That I agree with Alstry, especially if you use U6 data which suggest we are already there. I still think 35-50% unemployment is not very likely at all. I would think the gov't would go on a hiring spree if unemployemnt hits 13-15%. iF 35-50 that were to ever happen I don't think the US would survive intact. I think you'd have an overthrown gov't before that happens.

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#2) On November 20, 2008 at 9:12 PM, GNUBEE (24.99) wrote:

Oh yeah Alstry, like you've ever been right about anything :D

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#3) On November 20, 2008 at 9:17 PM, Knobee (< 20) wrote:

I don't think the US will be able to survive 25%....

My primary investments:  Silver, Gold and Lead (in reverse order)

BTW, GNUBEE -- cool name.  :)

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#4) On November 20, 2008 at 9:29 PM, melkboer2008 (< 20) wrote:

Those who voted for "Change" will find out that is all that will be left over of their 401k. Just a little change.

 

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#5) On November 20, 2008 at 9:48 PM, Slipswitch (< 20) wrote:

The US has a skilled workforce, welll educated population, respect for the law and property rights, etc.  We also have a gov't that is trying to fix the problem.  We will come out with some bruises, but stronger than before. 

6% unemployement is not as awful as it sounds when you realize that about 4-5% is normal.

 The deficits will not hurt us for a while, as deflation is a bigger danger.

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#6) On November 20, 2008 at 10:29 PM, hansthered0 (< 20) wrote:

Denial is the first stage slips....oh yeah....everything is juuuust fine right al?

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#7) On November 21, 2008 at 12:02 AM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

The natural unemployment rate has commonly been defined between 6%-7%. We have been spoiled over the last 10-12 years.

Look for business opportunities in the rubble. Just because a conglomerate or major organization can't run a business profitably does not mean a small business can't do it.

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#8) On November 21, 2008 at 10:49 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.99) wrote:

GS agrees with Alstry:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081121/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_research_goldman_1

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#9) On November 21, 2008 at 11:10 AM, rookie02 (61.03) wrote:

GS Is reaching for handouts from the government while criticizing thier economic planning.

 

Goldman Sachs takes 12B bailout, gives 14B exec bonus

i dont really believe a word from em...

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#10) On November 21, 2008 at 5:07 PM, jgseattle (33.00) wrote:

I think unemployement can reach 10%+ but if it gets much more than that we are in big trouble.  Why.

If people are not comfortable with their jobs they do not spend, which is ok with me but our economy is 70% consumptions.

This extends to housing.  The statisitic with the best corelation to housing prices is employment.  So if we get 10%+ unemployement the current mortgage crisis is just the start!

 

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