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Dividends4Life (43.19)

10 Under-Valued Dividend Stocks

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January 11, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: JNJ , MSFT , WMT

By many measures, 2010 was a great year for dividend growth stocks. There were far fewer dividend cuts and fewer companies that failed to raise their dividends at the expected time.  From a valuation standpoint dividend stocks performed quite well, with many income portfolios outperforming the S&P 500.

The down side to this is that great values are harder to find. However, that is not to say they aren’t still out there. Of the 198 stocks I track, only 29 (15%) are trading below my calculated fair value, up from 7% this time last year. Here are some of the more interesting ones…

Becton, Dickinson and Co. (BDX) provides a wide range of medical devices and diagnostic products used in hospitals, doctors’ offices, research labs and other settings.
Fair Value: $109.88 | Recent Price: $84.73 | Yield: 1.6%

Owens & Minor, Inc. (OMI) is a leading domestic distributor of medical and surgical supplies to the acute care market, a health care supply chain management company, and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) supplier of testing and monitoring supplies for diabetes.
Fair Value: $35.94 | Recent Price: $29.56 | Yield: 2.4%

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) is the largest retailer in North America. The company operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club, and International.
Fair Value: $63.69 | Recent Price: $54.56 | Yield: 2.2%

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is a diversified life science company and is a leading maker of drugs, nutritional products, diabetes monitoring devices, and diagnostics.
Fair Value: $55.43 | Recent Price: $47.82 | Yield: 3.6%

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is a major consumer products company that markets oral, personal and household care, and pet nutrition products in more than 200 countries and territories.
Fair Value: $91.57 | Recent Price: $79.79 | Yield: 2.5%

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a leader in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer products industries.
Fair Value: $70.24 | Recent Price: $62.82 | Yield: 3.4%

Walgreen Company (WAG) is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues, this company operates more than 8,000 drug stores throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
Fair Value: $43.77 | Recent Price: $39.32 | Yield: 1.50%

Medtronic Inc. (MDT) is a global medical device manufacturer with leadership positions in the pacemaker, defibrillator, orthopedic, diabetes management, and other medical markets.
Fair Value: $41.34 | Recent Price: $37.41 | Yield: 2.4%

Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) underwrites a broad array of personal and commercial coverages. These insurance coverages are marketed primarily in the Eastern and Midwestern United States.
Fair Value: $41.10 | Recent Price: $37.39 | Yield: 3.6%

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the world’s largest software company, develops PC software, including the Windows operating system and the Office application suite.
Fair Value: $28.55 | Recent Price: $27.98 | Yield: 2.3%

I calculate Fair Value weighing The Mid-2 Price and the NPV MMA Price. The wieght depends on where we are in the cycle. Currently it is weighted as 25% Mid-2 price + 75% NPV MMA price. The Mid-2 Price considers four fair value calculations, Avg. High Yield Price, 20-Year DCF Price, Avg. P/E Price and Graham Number, the highest and lowest fair values are excluded and the remaining two calculations are averaged to calculate the Mid-2 price. The NPV MMA Price is where the NPV MMA value equals the NPV MMA target.

Needless to say, we need to consider a lot more than just valuation when making a stock purchase. As dividend growth investors, I would argue that dividend fundamentals are more important than valuation. As long-term buy and hold investors, we can over-come paying too much for a great stock with time. However, time is unlikely to help a fairly valued stock with poor dividend fundamentals.

Full Disclosure: Long OMI, WMT, ABT, CL, JNJ, MDT, HGIC. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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