January 06, 2008
– Comments (5)
CAUTION: Make sure you are sitting down, this is very shocking to see a politician with intregrity and brains:
Is that Ron Paul? Pardon me for sounding ignorant but I have listened to him on the radio but have not yet seen him on television.
Yes, that is Dr Ron Paul speaking at the GOP NH debate. He has some other / better videos on youtube.com.
That is funny. Beating a dead horse....
Saw on the news this morning that the fastest-growing, (percentage-wise), contracts on the options market are for rights to buy oil at $200 a barrel. (This was on Bloomburg Morning Call.) They said that they polled the options traders and that none of them actually expect oil to get to $200 a barrel, but that this was a cheaper way to play oil than the futures market. The announcer said according to their poll that the traders actually think that oil for the year will average about $75 a barrel. (Of course, they also stated that in 2006 they polled the traders and they thought that oil in 2007 would average about $60 a barrel, when in fact it averaged about $75 for the year, so the traders are often wrong.)
Ron Paul does make a good point, (often made by others and stated by me on this website), that threatening Iran will tend to push up oil even higher, and if we actually attack Iran, then $200 a barrel oil is not that far fetched, (and might even be understating the price appreciation potential). It will be interesting to see if Ron Paul can do reasonably well in New Hampshire as he did reasonably well in Iowa. Tomorrow will tell.
Thank you for the reply. I saw the article also on Bloomberg about $200 oil. I just posted on on a previous blog that Saxo Bank is predicting $175 oil? But the reason for the $200 oil might be the news from the middle east:
"(Reuters) - Five Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats provoked three U.S. Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route off the Iranian coast, over the weekend, CNN reported on Monday."
If Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz we will have $200 oil. We do not want to go to war with Iran and we do not want $200 oil.
I think Ron Paul has a decent chance. The other cannidates are awful and if the economy tanks RP will be the best choice.