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alstry (36.19)

1.01.10 Concentric Contraction.......The Government Crash

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December 09, 2009 – Comments (7)

Spain's outlook cut to negative by S&P

Spain joins a growing list of nations like Greece, Dubai, Iceland, Ireland, Bulgaria, Ukraine, North Korea, Venezuela and many more including practically every city, county and state in America facing massive finanicial crisis......

Alstry started warning you about the Government Crash about a year ago....it is now upon us.

We knew it was coming on 9.09 when many U.S. agencies were out of money.......just as Alstry's score resumed its upward trend

We started to feel it on 11.10.9 when cities, counties and states initiated massive layoffs and cuts

On 1.01.10...it happens as nations and governments around the world start going broke

It is not the end of the world, simply the end of the world as you know it.

Expect governments to start confiscating assets like Venezuela seizing banks

Expect taxes to rise dramatically as tax receipts evaporate all over the world like England imposing a 50% tax on bankers' bonuses this morning....just 50% more to go......but the more convulsive part will be rising sales, income, and property taxes in America as incomes and values implode.

Expect tensions between nations and peoples to escalate as economic convulsionis force nations to take extreme actions.

My guess is a new digital currency is being developed......it might be backed by cap and trade credits or some sort of digital gold.....I highly doubt the physical metal will be the collateral behind the currency.....but that doesn't mean you shouldn't own some as a hedge in case it is utilized.

We are about to enter the most iteresting period in world economic history.......

The only thing for sure is it will  be convulsive....if you own a home in a ski resort area or other vacation home....you should not be surprised if its value drops 80-90% on a dollar adjusted basis.  It is simply getting too expensive, especially for former high income earners, to maintain more than one home...even if they own it free and clear.

As Alstry says....don't fear...prepare....it is now here and you have been warned....let's figure out some creative ideas to proceed into the Alstrynomic Digital Age as the Industrial Age shuts down.

 

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 09, 2009 at 9:48 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"My Hard Top was called in April at 8300 with a 10% margin of error....factoring the decline in the dollar which I admittedly misjudged, I am still well within my top on a dollar adjusted basis"

LOL - this is the kind of stuff that makes you the punching bag.  It's such a ridiculous assertion.  I'm still waiting to see all 10 of your followers agree with that call.  Not gonna happen.

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#2) On December 09, 2009 at 9:52 AM, alstry (36.19) wrote:

JD...as electrical demand collapses....1.01.10 gets closer and closer........

Alstry missed the dollar collapse....we are not all perfect

But some Alstrybaters are simply horrible caps players........and you, I want to thank you for devoting so much of your life to following Alstrynomics...you are one of my most faithful.

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#3) On December 09, 2009 at 11:42 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

LOL - Caps score does not a successful investor make.  If you followed your top call in real life there is no doubt that you'd have taken huge losses. So for you to continue to claim your top call was correct is silly.  You didn't follow your top call in real life and continue to claim that the call was right.  THAT IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF WHAT YOU REPRESENT - ALLLLLLL TALK!!!!!!! NOOOOOO ACTION!!!!!!

Although I'm lacking in caps score, One thing that I've got, that you'll never have, is my word.  I've always kept my word.  You, though, have publicly displayed your disdain for keeping your word.  That's why it's difficult for anyone reading your blather to take you seriously.

You should thank me for being there for you.  Without me you'd have no one to talk to.

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#4) On December 09, 2009 at 11:51 AM, UKIAHED (38.54) wrote:

"My Hard Top was called in April at 8300 with a 10% margin of error....factoring the decline in the dollar which I admittedly misjudged, I am still well within my top on a dollar adjusted basis"

Alstry missed the dollar collapse....we are not all perfect

You called 8300 on April 30.  The dollar index was 84.546.  The dollar index today is 76.02.  That would be a change of 8.53 which equates to 10.01%.  You gave yourself a 10% margin.  So - this is a 20.01% margin when the dollar change is added.  This would mean that the Dow should rise to a max of 9960 to stay within your margin of error (20.01% above the 8300 call).  It is currently at 10308.  You are outside your margin of error by 4.18% of DOW move.  This equates to an incremental error of 20.89% (24.19%  error over call vs expected error of 20.01%).

Just adding my .10 contribution to the holidays.  Have a great day

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#5) On December 09, 2009 at 11:56 AM, alstry (36.19) wrote:

Actually as I am writing this comment I am trading and talking on the phone at the same time.......

As Alstry has always said...most of one's net  worth for the average investor should be in cash and a some metals as a hedge....and if you want to surf the tsunami....have fun with a bit.

A cash position is outperforming the market by about 40% in the past couple years....substantially outperforming most mutual funds over the same time period.  Metal positions is up about 30%, beating most equity funds by over 70% over the same time frame.

As far as equity calls.......CAPS scores is where its at within the confines of this game and surfing the tsunami...but you should always be very careful when you surf a tsunami....as your score clearly demonstrates......

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#6) On December 09, 2009 at 12:02 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

#4 - LOL!  Excellent comment!

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#7) On December 09, 2009 at 12:25 PM, alstry (36.19) wrote:

Uki,

As you know things can overrun a bit on the top side and the bottom side.....

The dollar did drop to 74 and the Dow did rise to 10,500......

When making top and bottom calls,  nothing is set in stone, especially hard top calls.....super top calls at 14,000 are much stronger but not always perfect either...

That is the beauty of investing, you only have to be mostly right to be a winner....and based on Alstry's score, since he started blogging, he has a pretty good mostly right rate.

Now we begin the government crash.....this one will scare the heck out of most people around the world......I can almost assure you on that one.....and very likely to start escalating before 1.01.10 as Alstry's score has started rising since 9.09

Happy Holidays to you and yours.

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