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dpdoor (< 20)




July 08, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: SBUX , GE , AA

The dow could easily hit 10500 since the consumer is spending more lately. The little bit of good news after months of bad news often causes a rally. The problem is the Commercial and Industrial sector is just now experiencing the recession that we felt last year.

Also, the length of the recession is weighing on China.

So as the consumer finally is starting to spend, the big money making Commercial and Industrial business are just know finishing their old contracts; with little new work on the board.

Although the small business will finally do OK. The big rich guys are going to experience what we did over the last year.

When the dow hits 10500 I plan on selling 50% of the stocks I own and going short on some of the business that represent the gluttony of the boom time.

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 08, 2010 at 6:24 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Why Dow 10,500?  200-day is around 10,360.  Short term, I don't believe we'll get back above the 200-day.  If we do get above that level, and get to 10,500, we'll pass the short-term high from a couple weeks ago and we might have more upside from there...unless the upcoming earnings reports are mostly bad.

I don't really trust the positive consumer spending reports.  Consumer sentiment is down, retail numbers are down, tax receipts are down, consumer borrowing is still falling, wages are not increasing, etc...  Small businesses are failing in large numbers in my area.  Short term, I don't know if we reach 10,500, but I'm betting against it.

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#2) On July 08, 2010 at 8:22 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

In our business we are seeing a lot more consumer spending. The most in 6 months. But the Industrial suppliers are dead in the water

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#3) On July 08, 2010 at 8:48 PM, Varchild2008 (85.12) wrote:

I see positive positive positive things in China....

I see the following:

1)  Many companies that have entered into China, hired, and built a good business there are now being forced to pay workers more..... More $$$$ in labor's pockets mean bigger consumer spending in China.....

2) American companies and the world over view China as the place to expand their businesses......

Companies like (F) Ford haven't even scratched the surface o the potential in China....  China is in a cyclical bull market that could last a total of 20 years and probably started around 1999 - 2000.   Meaning we have a good decade perhaps of China Growth before we see any real weakness there...

Look at this way....  As more companies look to China for growth.... That's more JOBS for the population.... Population is still on the rise inspite of Chinas Anti-Child policy it carried to reduce population size.

3)  China's improved behavior towards their currency is hugely bullish on Exports for all countries that export to China...

That is 3 huge points....  More Jobs + Higher Wages  + Steady Long Term Economic Growth Generated by Foreign Companies Entering the Market Place  =   HUGE Bull Market Economy trend that could last for quite a long time to come.

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#4) On July 08, 2010 at 8:59 PM, Mstinterestinman (< 20) wrote:

I see us going back up from here my price target by year end is still dow 12,000 were still very close to levels we saw in 1998 ..A bear market cant last much more than 12 years right? Not promising Dow 20,000 at the end of this next decade but 16-18K seems realisitic by 2020 I focus on whatmy portfolio will look like ten year from now not tomorrow.

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#5) On July 08, 2010 at 9:32 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

I agree with 1998 but the average dow was 8500 and it was a strong growing year. I don't see going over 10500 for the next few years; but who knows. I feel tomorrow we will have some sell off since we will be getting second qtr reports next week and q2 may not have been so hot. But out here in socal I am seeing lots of new cars and customers spending, the fear is less evedent but the $200000 in extra home equity is gone for good. China got rich off our boom time and it is gone. I do like ford though and is my heaviest stock. (went light end of today though to look for more bargains on it late friday)

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#6) On July 15, 2010 at 2:48 AM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

dow hit 10436 by wsj chart on Tues. Wed high was 10424, the first time in this rally that it did not beat the previous day.

G20 is refusing help to Ford, (among others) US gov is not going to help states, China is slowing, we are not going to recover for 5 years,

Ford hit 15% below it's target price, the only thing left is for Ge to hit 15.50 and or one spike up and we are ready for dive.

I am usally within 1% of my target prices and we are within 1%,

I have started my selling and started my short buys.  Not sure if I should wait for a good spike up, I had estimated july 23 as the dow would hit 10500 but I am getting anxious.

I really like my Ford and next year I think GE will do well but it may be best to go safe.

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#7) On July 15, 2010 at 2:42 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

Market droped over 100 points today, I luckly made some good moves and made money today. I have reduced my possitions by 50%. Yesterday I added 33% short. After a 7 day rally I picked the right day to make these moves.

I have a buy order for ford at a low price for friday, I hope we will get a Ford rally next week in anticpation of their q2 report.

Even if the maket goes to 8500 it will have bounces on the way.

The stocks I have are not the largest in their field but the best run and not greedy. Smaller is better, cars are cool, the true value is what the company could be sold for.

Radio shack is better then Best buy for example. No one would buy best buy but someone would buy RSH.

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#8) On July 17, 2010 at 1:32 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

We got what I was looking for, Thursday afternoon (7/15/10) spiked up, the next pre-market GE hit 10.50, and the slide started.

Now instead of looking for a good report from Ford the market will be worried about how the scare in Europe hurt car sales.

Since the slide has started there is no stopping it until we hit 8500 (maybe 8800). The good thing is now the big money can get in and we can rally for the November Elections.

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#9) On July 28, 2010 at 8:52 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

Well, as I wrote above I estimated the dow would be at 10,500 on July 23, 2010 ;  I missed it by one day.  It went over 10,500 for 2 days then today closed lower. It looks like it could crash. This is a good thing, it will give those investing in fixed income to get into the market and make some money. I't has to come down to a cheep price. Like 8800, so they can all get in. If the consumer spends a lot we will see 10750 in three months, if they stay flat the market will stay down around 9600, if they continue to slowly improve but do improve I see it going to 10500 again.

I am 60% short (sbux, sso, and a little dia) 40% long with NTWK and some Ford and a little GE,  I sold most of my ford at 12.5 and ge at 16.05. and will not buy in with out a major drop. Not a little drop I mean like ge at 12.4.

If the market does not give some good deals  I will close my short possitions and just stay mostly in cash cause the stock market sucks, even though I doubled my 2007 investment it still sucks.

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#10) On August 25, 2010 at 10:33 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

from 10500 it over shot to 10700 but now is at 10000, I would say I was right and with in days, but once again missed by 200 points. I think the dow will still go to 8800 but not for a few months. I expect a rally for the nov senate electons starting Sept 7. up to 10440 mabe up form there for a while but will not hold. so far almost all my predicitions have been whith in 200 points and usally with in 2 weeks, but some are off by 2 months. Never the less It makes me a lot of money.

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