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alstry (35.76)

11.10.9 Time????

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November 08, 2009 – Comments (14)

THE PUBLIC SECTOR, RESPONSBILE FOR HALF OF GDP, IS NOW SPIRALING DOWN..... 

Tax receipts to the Federal Government are evaporating despite government running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit. 

States are running out of money.  Some delaying payment of tax refunds due to declining revenues.  Others firing workers, shutting down offices, and selling state assets.

Cities and Counties facing similar finanicial stresses and firing workers as well.

AND TAX RECEIPTS DECLINING FURTHER.....

Due to cutbacks in health care spending hospitals are suffering revenue declines and firing workers.

Schools and universities have started cutting large numbers of workers.

Many public pensions are basically bankrupt.

NEVER BEFORE HAS OUR GOVERNMENT BEEN SO LARGE.....AND NEVER HAS ITS FINANCIAL CONDITION BEEN WORSE THAN NOW!!!!!!!

PRIVATE SECTOR SIMPLY SHUTTING DOWN DESPITE GOVERNMENT STIMULOUS.

Auto Sales Down 50%

Residential RE Consturction Down 75%

COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION COMING TO A GRINDING HALT!!!!!!!!

The state bird of Nevada, the construction crane, is on the endangered species list.

... there are nine commercial projects of consequence under construction off from the Strip in Southern Nevada. Once most of those projects wind down early next year, there’s not much in the pipeline and development will essentially cease ... the long-range outlook ... is that there won’t be another major casino project built on the Strip for another decade. ...

What is happening in Nevada is reflective of the entire nation....as we end out the year, there will be very few commercial projects under construction.

Real Estate, Autos, Finance, Construction, and related Manufacturing is central the private economy.

Personal and Business bankruptcies are skyrocketing as more and more lose their jobs, suffer significant income declines, and businesses shut down......

PRE CLINTON UNEMPLOYMENT NOW OVER 20%!!!!!!!!!! with a very negative outlook ahead.

By the end of the year, our private economy will be a small fraction of what it used to be......revenues to government will continue to evaporate to levels simply too low to sustain our nation's infastructure.

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 08, 2009 at 10:21 AM, oshiri (< 20) wrote:

Mornin' Al . . .

     At a time when the deficit is approaching $2,000,000,000,000 (that's $2 trillion - a 2 followed by 12 zeros) and the "officially acknowledged" unemployment is over 10%, why, oh why, is the focus on the spending of an additional $1.2 trillion, of money the government does not have, to take over our healthcare?

     The only thing that should matter to the congress, the white house, the governors, the mayors, and everyone is job.

     You can count on one hand those crazy Libertarian congress-people that actually dare to say that destructive restructuring is necessary.

     _sigh_

     So we sit and wait for the government to spend more money they don't have, and watch helplessly as our once great country spirals toward a final reckoning.

     I'm tired and spent Al. There are simply too many people on the dole here, so only a small minority cares about what's actually happening.

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#2) On November 08, 2009 at 10:26 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

Without a private economy generating profits and taxes, how will we be able to fund government and health care??????

Laguna Honda & San Francisco General Hospital - 600 Layoff Notices

American Red Cross in Connecticut - 22

City of San Jose - 43

City of Concord - 7

Wausau School District - 40 opt to Retire or 50 Layoffs

Summa Wadsworth-Rittman Hospital Closed Maternity Ward

Miami County Incarceration Facility - 28 Jobs Lost

Ohio - Layoffs Force City Jail to Close

City of Palatine - Layoffs to Balance Budget?

Alvord Unified School District - Layoffs Coming?

Update: Lewis County - 27 Layoffs Possible

Holyoke Soldiers Home - 10

Topeka Unified School District 501 - Layoffs Very Possible

Update: Chippewa County - 6 or 7 Layoffs

Lewis County - Possible layoffs?

Update: Ameren - Job Cuts Grow to 300 

Regence BlueCross Blue Shield - 400

City of Escanaba - 8

Cooley Dickinson Hospital - 20 to 25

Duke University - 400 so Far, More to Come?

Indiana Schools Warn of Funding Cuts - Layoffs Possible

Alabama State Agencies Laying off

Update: City of Elyria - Probably 15 Officers

City of Perris - Layoffs but How Many?

Neenah Common Council Approves City Teamsters Union Layoffs in 2010

City of Ukiah approved - 21 Layoffs

City of Henderson - Layoffs Likely

Schuyler County - 12 Layoffs Possible

Summit County - Plans 45 Layoffs Next Month

Washington Parish Sheriff's Office - 20

City of Lorain - Layoff Notices this Week

San Francisco School Secretaries Facing Layoffs 

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#3) On November 08, 2009 at 10:40 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

Oshi....

The crazy time will be once America wakes up from its slumber and learns that practically all of the stimulous $$$ was simply directed to a few banks and a bunch of welfare recipients while much of the private industry in America is gone.

I am not aware of any source that truly aggregates, distills, ans synthesizes the shutting down of America.

Right now our cities, counties, and states are running out of money and relatively few are even aware as bankers are basking in billions of taxpayer provided bonuses????

Between now and the early part of next year....factoring the slowdown in commercial construction, the massive layoffs to the public sector including health care and education, and already announced private sector layoffs and shutdowns...

Maybe at that point America will wake up and realize that their Alstry nightmare was really reality.

Remember, revenues are evaporating against an unprecedented level of debt.  Much of that debt is still on the books.  The debt is the assets of our retirement accounts and financial institutions that is only just beginning to default.  We have only just felt the first wave of the credit crisis, the second wave of the tsunami is the one that really does the damage.

In reflection...it is interesting how so few really have an appreciation for the dramatic cuts going on.  In fairness, what I have found is once someone loses their job or business, perspective changes dramatically.

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#4) On November 08, 2009 at 10:46 AM, oshiri (< 20) wrote:

Got another one for you Alstry . . .

Ten employees at Fairview/University of Minnesota Medical Center were told to reapply for six job. My sister, an RN for 25 years, just became one of the four that will lose their job on December 31st . . .

Merry Christmas indeed!

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#5) On November 08, 2009 at 11:06 AM, danteps (30.00) wrote:

Yep - it's time to make more money.  That's what investors with seasoned temperment have been doing for months as this blogging nuisance continues his monthly predictions of the apocolypse.

Buffett, the greatest investor from a nominal perpective in the history of human civilization, just made his biggest investment yet on the future of the United States.  Are there bumps ahead?  Yes, of course.  The U.S. economy has never been perfect and never will be. 

The internet and the Motley Fool allow attention seekers to post repetitive nonsense.  My worry is that novice investors will believe in this drivel.  Please don't . . . we don't want folks missing opportunities and losing money.

Anyone can ignore a whole pile of facts and type "job loss" in Google.  That's not investing advice, that's attention seeking by a disturbed person.

So everyone is warned, after 11/10, there will be 12/12 or 1/1 or someother fictitous date to address.     

 

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#6) On November 08, 2009 at 11:48 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

9.09 actually occured in 3.09 when you knew our banking system was insolvent and banks were allowed  to lie about the value of their assets.

No self-respecting lawyer ever sets a date that he doesn't know the answer before hand.

When banks are allowed to lie but citizens are forced to tell the truth....you have a pretty good idea what happens next.  By 9.09 the FDIC, FHA, and Pension Guaranty were out of money.

But it's OK, that has happened before right???  NEVER.

And they were broke while govenrment was running a massive UNPRECEDENTED deficit AND allowing banks to lie....could you imagine where things would be if the truth was actually applied to accounting and government was fiscally responsible????

My guess is not a chance in your case.

I told you by 11.10.9....you would start to feel.  If you talk to just about any controller of any city, county, or state in the union (save maybe North Dakota), I think most would say this is unquestionably the most difficult financial crisis ever faced and the outlook is even worse.

We are now feeling layoffs in schools, universities, hosptials, police and fire departments, cities, counties and states ALL ACROSS THE NATION.  States are delaying tax refunds compensating for declines in revenues for August and September.  October is a LOT WORSE!!!!!!!

We havn't even begun to feel the full extent of the fallout.....we are simply feeling the early stages.....and we are still running an unprecedented deficit and conditions are crashing.

Imagine what happens when we can't run a deficit anymore....and unemployment keeps accelerating.....and businesses keep shutting down.......

I know it is hard for you to believe that much of your finanicial portfolio is simply a ponzi scheme induced by a massive government deficit, fraudulent financial accounting, and a stock market manipulated by a few high frequency traded computers supported by credit default swaps.

At some point, the party runs out....right now it is running out for tens of millions of Americans losing their jobs and watching their wages slashed.  What is different this time is that they are staying unemployed for lengths of time never seen before......

How this plays out is anyone's guess......but thinking that buying a railroad is betting on growth is potentially the furthest thing from reality.  In a high oil price environemnt, trucking will be destroyed and rail might be the only way to cost effectively move goods.....so even if the GDP crashes 50%-60%.....rail could grow.....it is just that most everything else dies.

You think Buffett is an idiot????  Why do you think he is firing thousands of workers at most of his other business......he KNOWS exactly where things are going.

 

 

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#7) On November 08, 2009 at 12:02 PM, oshiri (< 20) wrote:

Dano . . .

     There are plenty of things to invest in besides the stock market. Pointing out problems in today's economic/political culture is not a nuisance, it is paramount to seeing what is happening in total reality that the rah-rah press seem unable or unwilling to do -- to connect the dots.

     Yes, you and most CAPS players have a very different view, but you always come back to read/rec Astrynomics because in the back of your mind you know we have major problems and are hoping to make your money before the house of cards falls.

Good luck . . . 

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#8) On November 08, 2009 at 12:20 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

In all, more than one out of every six workers — 17.5 percent — were unemployed or underemployed in October. The previous recorded high was 17.1 percent, in December 1982.

Oshi,

As the market has climbed, the PE of the S&P is now OVER 100 and the market continues to climb as revenues decline, earnings shrink, and more and more lose their jobs....and few even notice that all of this is happening while running an unprecedented and unsustainable deficit.

Reminds me of the Dot.Com boom.....everyone knows it is a bubble....AFTER the bubble pops.

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#9) On November 08, 2009 at 12:51 PM, AvianFlu (50.69) wrote:

danteps:

I can tell you why Buffet bought Burlington Northern railroad. Buffet is sitting on a huge pile of cash. He knows massive inflation is coming because of deficit spending and money printing. He has said so in public (ie: unchecked greenback emissions comments). He knows he needs to convert his pile of cash into actual assets before the pile of cash becomes worth a lot less. A railroad line is a substantial asset.

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#10) On November 08, 2009 at 1:52 PM, danteps (30.00) wrote:

Avian:

When I have a free moment, I post on the Narcissistic One's repetitive attention seeking ramblings to warn naive folks about listening to the village idiot.  I care about people / investors.  I have never once recommended one of the ramblings and wonder how many of the recs are from the Narcissistic One or from others.  I invest money for a living (we have nearly $1.5 billion under management), so I understand the challenges that folks face when optimizing a portfolio.  My hope is that the Motley Fool will educate and inform people, not be a forum for someone’s ego.  Unfortunately I don’t have the time to cogently address the lunacy, because I am in the business of investing and producing superior returns for those that have trusted me with their capital.  One thing I have learned is that you can’t win an argument with an egomaniac or an insane person.  It’s like teaching a pig to sing.  It wastes my time and irritates the pig.

I have met Mr. Buffett and followed him for years. I doubt he bought BNI simply as an inflation hedge or because he was sitting on a pile of cash.  That is remarkably simple analysis.  Mr. Buffett has experienced far more market cycles than any of us and through his apprenticeship with Ben Graham understands that their are ups and downs with the U.S. economy.  The threat of apocolypse to our economy is highly remote and simply a way for folks to garner attention.

Invest and make money or grab attention.  Whatever floats your boat. 

 

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#11) On November 08, 2009 at 2:37 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

The arrogance of complacency is only exceeded by the ignorance of failing to accept reality...it will be interesting to see which fact actually plays an influence:

1.  A $2 Trillion Dollar deficit accompanied by evaporating tax revenues and corporate sales?

2.  A 20% plus unemployment rate and massive layoffs likely ahead?

3.  A rapid drop in incomes never seen even in Warren Buffett's long investing career?

4.  An underfunded/bankrupt pension system never the likes of which America has seen?

5.  Over One Quadrillion Dollars of Credit Default Swaps/Derivitives that Warren Buffett has called financial weapons of mass destruction?

6.  A reported P/E on the S&P that has never ever ever been close to this high?

7. Tax Revenue decline that even eclipses The Great Depression.

8. A Government that constitutes over 50% of GDP consumption that is rapidly running out of money.

9. A banking system lying about its solvency?

10. A broke FDIC, FHA, and Pension Guaranty?

We could go on and on and on......

And some people think what we are going through remotely resembles anything that has existed in the last 100 years?

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#12) On November 08, 2009 at 2:53 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

In case you want to summarize the above, never before in modern American History has our nation been insolvent.  Not even in Mr. Buffett's lifetime.

Further, when times were tough, never did we resort to outright monetization simply to keep the illusion of a moving economy....that was reserved for banana republic's to suffer the consequences.

Finally, over the past 10 years, we morphed into a domestic consumer economy that was primarily driven by leveraged real estate....now that real estate is dead....the consumer is not too far behind and can't serve government or bankers profitably.

Until we restructure...nobody has a clue where this is going. 

Even Alstry.  How we restructure is still up in the air.

When government is out of money.....you have no idea what politicians are going to do to keep their jobs and power.  Right now they are handing everything to the bankers.

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#13) On November 08, 2009 at 4:25 PM, 119862913 wrote:

8.7.6...5.4.3...2.11.2...1.2.3...4.5.6...7.8.9...10.11.12

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#14) On November 08, 2009 at 11:25 PM, Rasbold (93.12) wrote:

...and people were a hell of a lot more self sufficient back then, too.

They knew how to, you know, build things, grow things and fix things. We are wholly dependant. When that machine breaks down......dude. It is going to hurt.

...and the Food Stamp stats? You wouldn't believe how broke you have to be to get food stamps. I know firsthand. It is draconian. You almost have to be homeless, even with a family.

Things are clouding up pretty quick.

 

 Good Luck, and May Your Dow Never Jones!

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