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alstry (< 20)

11.10.9...No Jobs No Recovery



November 06, 2009 – Comments (5)

10.2% U3 Unemployment Rate

17.5% U6 Unemployment Rate

22.0% J. Williams Adjusted Unemployment Rate

30-40% Alstrynomic Functional Welfare Adjusted Unemployment Rate

We are at over 20% unemployment rate and we still have not contemplated the 16,000 job losses at Merck, the 8000 job losses at J&J, the 7,000 job losses at

September and October Tax receipts are coming in much lower than expected forcing cities, counties, and states to take drastic actions to reduce costs in including massive job cuts.

In America, our economy is driven by domestic consumer consumption.......and there is no Bigger consumer than our government.....and with revevnues to our government evaporating....any potential for recovery is IMPOSSIBLE SINCE GOVERNMENT SPEND IS 50% OF GDP!!!!!!.

Where the BIG PROBLEM sets it is we are losing massive numbers of jobs despite running a $2 TRILLION DOLLAR deficit....approaching 20% of our contracting GDP.  With $2 Trillion dollars sloshing around, we should be growing at unprecedented rates.  Deficit spending is why health care and education is maintaining relatively better than other areas of the economy.

Our private economy used to drive revenues to our government which in turn spent back into the economy.  But now, the largest components of our private economy are in the depths of an unprecedented DEPRESSION.

Auto Sales DOWN 50%.

New Home Construction DOWN 75%

Commericial RE Sales DOWN 50%.

Commerical Construction Grinding to a HALT after 11.10.9.........

Architects facing 60% unemployment

Travel DOWN 25% and deteriorating.....

Production in our nation was focused on the above industries.  The above were HUGE drivers of revenue to government that ONLY NOW are really being felt by MASSIVE government cut backs at every level.  An issue going forward will be the massive debt burdening our cities, counties, states, schools and revenues decline decisions between servicing that debt and paying employees will be central.

In America, an economy that is no longer production based and producing very little based on its a service economy....our economy is jobs, primarily jobs, and really jobs is what drives income, spending and tax receipts.

I am not sure how job growth can be a lagging indicator when jobs are the source of revenues in a service economy.  Now that we are about to lose millions of government jobs due to evaporating tax receipts....any outlook for growth seems illusory under the current structure.

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 06, 2009 at 9:48 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

I am curious how much of the stimulus went to government coffers. It does not feel like anything is different in my bubble except my sales are way down. The feds got a piece and created new beauracracies, the states got a piece and increased their payrolls, then the cities got some and did not lay off anyone. All the money did was to keep government workers employed for another year.

It will be interesting how we organize when we have less services- will we become more dependent or more independent. When potholes need to be paved or parks cleaned- will people step up around their community or lobby for the federal governments benevelance. I personally think on a micro scale americans are good people and we will help our neighbors out.

I wonder if the stimulus would have worked out better if the congress sidestepped the banks and corporations and said we will hold the line at 8% unemployment by doing massive works projects and paying people flat non-union rate of $10.00 an hour? No trillions to the bankers or industries, and not paying a wage that you can get rich on- but it seems that having lots of people doing nothing is a bad idea or just giving people money away to people who do not work.

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#2) On November 06, 2009 at 9:53 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

What Fools fail to appreciate is much of the profits being generated by the S&P is simply investment banks betting on whether debt will default or not.

There is very little profit being generated in traditional business these days.

And when Wall Street is both the Agent and the Principal in the SWAP transaction, they get to be on the winning side of the bet every time.....and your pension is generally the loser.

My guess is America will wake up one morning and see that most of their cities resemble Detroit....and ask this better than expected????

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#3) On November 06, 2009 at 10:12 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

That goodness for Discovery Channel DISCA

I saw one show of the most densly populated island where the villagers go out in boats they have used for hundreds of years to fish while the village grows tarrow. They seemed more happy than the rest of us.

I think you woud like the show "the colony" on discovery. each week the group of professionals (who are smarter than 99% of the US population) have to achieve certain goals. Purify water, fish the la river, steal supplies from hospitals, decide whether to kill their goat or use it for milk, steal food from homeless, make electricity, and use flame throwers to keep marauders on bikes from stealing their supplies.

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#4) On November 06, 2009 at 10:27 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

That village has a system and America has its own system.

What we are analyzing is the disruption of a system....not the quality relative to each other.

Any massive disruption of a system causes massive convulsions to those your example a tsunami would be relevant.

In our system, if our form of money and exchange became a Ponzi scheme.....the revelation of that to the population would equally be as convulsive.

My guess is that our politicians and bankers are trying to figure out a way to reveal that to the that will play out will be the convulsion.

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#5) On November 06, 2009 at 10:55 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

Its hard for me as an observer to believe that our elected leaders have a clue as to what you are talking about with a proposed $1.4 trillion dollar healthcare, or cap & trade... unless that is part of the plan.

Also- you make an interesting point. Lets says that small island with 100 people we are discussing in the above was hit by a tsunami & whatever they held as having the most value- lets say their boats- were destroyed in an instant. What would they do? Migrate? Cut down trees on their small island to build new boats? get a reality show on CBS?

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