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catoismymotor (37.10)

11,517

Recs

8

November 15, 2012 – Comments (12)

Hello All,

I think were are halfway through a 15% correction that started in late October. I think we'll see the DOW bottom close to 11,517 before the middle of January *IF* the Fiscal Cliff/Norm/Sam/Woody is averted.

I know I'm just another Joe Schmo without an MBA on TMF spouting off. But I like to think I am close to correct about this. If I'm wrong I'm not out anything. And if I am correct I get to toast myself and feel smug for half a day.

Toodels!

Cato

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 15, 2012 at 4:20 PM, ChrisGraley (30.06) wrote:

I personally think that we are 25% of the way to a 30% correction.

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#2) On November 15, 2012 at 7:13 PM, awallejr (82.78) wrote:

Chris that isn't a correction that is a crash. There are a lot of stocks oversold as it is and Uncle Ben is still pumping the market.

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#3) On November 16, 2012 at 12:43 PM, ChrisGraley (30.06) wrote:

yeah, a crash is pretty much what i am expecting.

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#4) On November 16, 2012 at 5:20 PM, awallejr (82.78) wrote:

What would be the catalyst?  Because as long as Uncle Ben is pumping the system and keeping interest rates way low there is no reason that I can see absent any black swan event.

There are a ton of MLPs, BDCs and REITS giving people great entry points right now.

 

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#5) On November 16, 2012 at 10:03 PM, ChrisGraley (30.06) wrote:

Despite popular opinion around here, the stock market being pumped full of money is just a false sense of reality. Combine that with a slow down in Europe and China and an extra tax burden in the US and Dorothy will soon see what's behind the curtain.

If Romney would have been elected, it would have slowed it down a bit, but it would have still happened.

Printing money isn't free and the bill is coming. 

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#6) On November 16, 2012 at 10:22 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

dorothy, pull back the curtain and i will show you my junk, and your little dog toto too, loo.

 

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#7) On November 16, 2012 at 10:30 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

frankly, I am wishing for a crash in the stock market.  It would give me buying opportunities.  If it goes the other way, it would be tepid, and probably less than the inflation rate.

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#8) On November 16, 2012 at 11:26 PM, awallejr (82.78) wrote:

Well whether you think it false or not, the money has been  printed.  And as I submit we are starting to see the housing market improve.  You have mortgage rates at mind boggling low rates and could still go lower.  As long as Congress leaves those mortgage/tax deductions alone for the vast majority this sector will continue to improve.

Where else is there to even get a decent return?  Certainly not your local bank.

I will just throw a bunch of names out there.  They are all generating solid returns with great current entry points.  Going as low as you predict  would be tantamount to seeing March 2009 again  And that just isn't happening in the forseeable future.  The conditions simply aren't the same.

Take advantage of the tax selling.

SDRL, PVR, PSEC, HTGC, GGN, JPS, MPW, MMLP, BBEP, BWP, AGNC, NLY, ARCC, BX, FIG, NCT, CQP, ETP, ARLP, VE just to list a few.

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#9) On November 17, 2012 at 8:59 AM, ChrisGraley (30.06) wrote:

There are still thousands of foreclosed properties that the banks are holding and haven't put on the market yet. We aren't even close to a recovery in real estate. Just drive down your own street and count the number of empty homes with no real estate sign out front.

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#10) On November 17, 2012 at 3:11 PM, awallejr (82.78) wrote:

On my block? None.  In Detroit probably plenty.  But the direction has changed from dropping to starting to climb ON NATIONAL AVERAGE.  I am in the business.  In the NY area in certain towns houses get scOoped up after only being on the market for days.

As Porte would do, here are a bunch of links:

1) http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=housing%20starts&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CD4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2012-10-17%2Fhousing-starts-in-u-s-surged-in-september-to-four-year-high.html&ei=I-2nUPj4FeXo0gHlooBQ&usg=AFQjCNE5WNOoWjTzUWDZ0BTe2hVnavPa4g

2) http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=existing%20home%20sales&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFgQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2012-10-19%2Fsales-of-u-s-existing-homes-declines-amid-limited-supply.html&ei=--2nUPHxLOSs0AG42oHQDA&usg=AFQjCNE0fquCR0UZVH0KhQiCVWyp0kBgnw

3) http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=home%20sales%20prices&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CGIQqQIwBA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.latimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Frealestate%2Fla-fi-home-prices-20121114%2C0%2C3680420.story&ei=Xe6nUKqUCKiY0QGM3IHoBw&usg=AFQjCNHt59eOfSq0KglImm3cvY-Lweua9g

How Sandy will impact the market I can't say but that has implications mainly for NY/NJ.

Accept it or not but the data IS improving and actually could start to impact GDP more and more over time.

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#11) On November 18, 2012 at 5:37 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.75) wrote:

Cato, I am farting in your general direction.

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#12) On November 27, 2012 at 8:59 AM, catoismymotor (37.10) wrote:

HCG, your father smells of elderberries.

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