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starbucks4ever (97.54)

14000 call still on track

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June 01, 2009 – Comments (8)

The first 6 months have not been kind to my Jan 1 prediction of Dow 14000 by the end of December. And yet, having considered all pros and contras, I now have more confidence in my call than I did 6 months ago. The tables have turned, and the dynamics of the bear market of 2008-9 is now being replayed in reverse. When we see a top, 97% of players will have turned into permabulls. Too many people shorting what seemed to them like an overpriced market have forgotten that under every point of the Dow from 6000 to 14000 there lies buried a very bright short trader who understood just how overpriced the market was back then. 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 02, 2009 at 12:11 AM, jstegma (29.41) wrote:

That prediction is a loser.  

You got a little too bullish and you pooped in your pants.  There's no reason to defend youself about it and pretend it was a good idea.  Just admit the mistake and move on.

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#2) On June 02, 2009 at 12:25 AM, starbucks4ever (97.54) wrote:

jstegma,

I remained moderately bearish or neutral until 9200, when I saw that Asians simply have no clue about how to decouple themselves from Bernanke's hands in their wallet. When I realized that China and Japan were giving away their reserves to save us, I said that despite all the Obaminations we have, the trend is still bullish. Turns out I was 6 months early. Still it's much better to be 6 months early and bullish than to be 6 months late and bearish. 

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#3) On June 02, 2009 at 12:34 AM, BradAllenton (31.73) wrote:

14K on the dow would be created only by massive inflation. There is nothing bullish about that, it would be a disaster.

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#4) On June 02, 2009 at 2:02 AM, speedybure (< 20) wrote:

That is honestly a pipe dream, valuations don't support a 14k prediction. Even using aggressive growth estimates, making a case for dow 9000 in real terms is stretching it. How are you going measure this anyway? If you made the prediction on Jan 1 then you will have to keep GM in the index as opposed to what will replace it. Anyway, of you really believe the dow is worth 14k, then the hang sang is probably a 5 bagger minimum, therefore it wouldn't make sense to buy the dow in the first place.

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#5) On June 02, 2009 at 2:07 AM, goldminingXpert (29.56) wrote:

Pass me the crackpipe--I need some of what you're smoking.

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#6) On June 02, 2009 at 2:21 AM, starbucks4ever (97.54) wrote:

Come on, speedybure, when was it that the Dow traded at a fair valuation? Only in November and then again in March, and after that you'd have to go all the way back to 1982. Now, as a short, it's YOUR margin account that GS/PPT is after. They've already raided the longs' positions and now they want to make their profit on both sides of the trade. 

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#7) On June 02, 2009 at 8:32 AM, rofgile (99.43) wrote:

A prediction of DOW 14000 is as bad as a prediction of DOW 5000 by year's end.

If the DOW is going to 14000, what kind's of % gains to the companies making the index have to get to?  

For example, my MTW stock was at $55/share when it was DOW 14000.  Now its at $7/share (which is near several month high point).  To get back to valuations it had at the DOW 14000 - this stock would need to have a 600% increase.   Bank stocks also have gotten knocked down, and are not going to have multiple hundreds of % increases.  Etc. 

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#8) On June 03, 2009 at 2:53 AM, speedybure (< 20) wrote:

zloj:

True that, I still think one more nominal low could be in the cards, depending on how long the public can remain ignorant and believe in this *hit fiat money system. 

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