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alstry (35.28)

Inflation/Deflation....Depression for Sure

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May 12, 2009 – Comments (13)

Housing prices still falling at the fastest pace on record...right after falling for the fastest pace on record.....does that mean housing is falling faster and faster???  At this rate, if we fall a little further, there were be no place left to fall......no wonder Greenspan sees housing bottoming out at some point.....so does Alstry.....remember, just before smashing into the ground and bursting into a ball of fire....and plane only has to fall inches before crashing into the ground.

Tax revenues to CA falling 30, 40 and 50%...CA's General Fund revenues evaporating.  Same with tax revenues to the Federal Government.  As you know, a relatively small percentage of the population pays most of the taxes in America...at this rate...we could soon tax those that can pay taxes 100% of their income and still have a deficit.

Credit is about to be cut off to 1,000,000 small business in the next few weeks.  Millions more citizens have had or about to have credit cut off or reduced.  Any thoughts about the fallout from that?????

With unemployment/underemployment approaching 20%.....and millions of kids off of school soon and no jobs.....restlessness could be a serious problem as we enter summer months.

With tax revenues evaporating, credit being cut off to millions of Americans, jobs being cut, wages being slashed, and fewer and fewer companies hiring, exports decreasing, foreclosures increasing, home prices crashing....Alstry is beginning to think its party time.....right after you prepare....

Prepare for 30-50% unemployment.

Prepare for credit being cut off.

Prepare for home prices dropping to 1980 levels.

Prepare for your wage/income to be cut 10-70%.

If none of the above happen....at least you were prepared.

My suggestion, in the mean time....hug your children, make love to your spouse...two or three times if you are so inclined, invite your neighbors over for a beer, smile at a stranger walking by, and be empathetic to the millions upon millions of Americans who are lonely, homeless, jobless, and looking for love in all the wrong places.

It's tough out there and getting tougher......my job is to give you a heads up as to what may  be coming that few have the capacity nor the inclination to do......let's hope Alstry is dead wrong.....but Alstry seriously doubts it.....Alstrynomics is all about being right.

Soon everyone will be calling the current downturn a Depression.....at this point....the only question is how do we prepare for something we have never experienced before??????

 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 12, 2009 at 11:11 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

DETROIT – Chrysler LLC plans to fire up to 800 of its 3,200 dealers on Thursday, a lawyer seeking to represent the dealers said on a conference call.

800 Dealers and probably around 25,000 to 50,000 jobs...

Again there is nothing fun about this....but few are putting the pieces of the puzzle again.

Prepare.

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#2) On May 12, 2009 at 11:28 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Alstry's BIG concern is social unrest from frustration....

ArcelorMittal is facing increasing worker protests around the world, including a violent confrontation during an annual shareholder meeting Tuesday in Luxembourg, as frustration mounts over plant shutdowns and the reluctance of the world's biggest steelmaker to commit to reopening idled facilities.

Luxembourg....you gotta be kidding me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 12:57 AM, awallejr (83.81) wrote:

No replies ;(  Well considering your favorite U6 was "only" 15.8, I have to laugh at your "approaching 20%" comment.  Technically yes I suppose, since it went from 15.6 to 15.8, but no less accurate than if you said approaching 99%.  Keep on spinning.

I also do believe GE is opening up a new facility in upper New York creating, omg, 350 NEW jobs.

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 1:00 AM, FastTradinOutlaw (< 20) wrote:

So what if house prices are falling.  A lot of people cannot afford houses this should be a good thing.  By trying to raise prices you are screwing people really bad.

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 1:02 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

awa,

you are getting so close to zero on your CAPs score.....remember....just keep telling yourself I am important, Alstry likes me, and I know I can do it....

repeat three times:

I know I can...I know I can....I know I can....

Remember, Alstrynomics is all about helping CAPs players score more points....I just wish I could help you.

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 1:02 AM, awallejr (83.81) wrote:

P.S., also your 10-70 % wage cut is kind of a BIG spread no?  You like covering all your bases.

 

As for home prices dropping to 1980 prices maybe in a very select area, like p;arets of Michigan.  But trust me that will never happen in New York, where I have experience.  You can short sale double those prices easy if you wanted to.

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#7) On May 13, 2009 at 1:03 AM, awallejr (83.81) wrote:

p;arets = parts.  Scotch makes me a sloppy typer.

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#8) On May 13, 2009 at 1:07 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

awa,

referring to your #6 to avoid confusion...not sure if you posted again  

Know...unlike you I like scoring a lot of points on CAPs and being accurate in my representations.

Different jobs are sustaining different wage reductions...

For example...Real Estate Agents and Mortgage Brokers have commonly seen their incomes drop 50-70%.  Airline Pilots and Auto Workers have seen their incomes drop 40-50%.  Waitstaff, Hotel Workers, and Technology Salespeople have seen their incomes drop 10-30% and more....

Hopefully, that clarifys the wide range......just like to be accurate.....as you know...Alstrynomics is all about being right.

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#9) On May 13, 2009 at 1:21 AM, awallejr (83.81) wrote:

That isn't being accurate, that's covering an incredibly wide range.  Yeah some sectors got hit hard, but look at the reason why.  Housing bubble burst meant all that excess employment had to be shed.  Many other areas saw increases, nurses for example.  In fact we have a shortgage of them and are covering that shortgage through immigration (India, Russia, Phillipines being popular places for recruitment).

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#10) On May 13, 2009 at 1:51 AM, uclayoda87 (29.20) wrote:

I was planning to retire in Santa Barbara in 5 to 10 years.  At this rate of property value declines I should be able to achieve my goals.  I would also have enough money left over to install solar paneling, banks of Li batteries and sink a well, since by then the utility companies in CA would all be bankrupt.

And there won't be any traffic problems for my plug in electric car, since gasoline won't exist there anymore and most of the people would have left to find food and employment in some other state.

 It would just be like "Hotel California"

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#11) On May 13, 2009 at 2:05 AM, cbwang888 (25.97) wrote:

I ordered a Round Table pizza and saw their medium pizza price jump from 15.99 to 19.49. That is 20%+ increase. Check the oz of skippy penut buffer, the new container shrunk. People who buy pampers for their babies know they are now selling less count box for the same price......

Deflation? No. It is only liquidation for raising cash for some troubled firms like GM autos... 

USD is steady going down and that means inflation in US.

 

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