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1st quarter 2009 retail sales are going to be bullcrap

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March 13, 2009 – Comments (2)

January retail numbers have been readjusted and are now up 1.8% compared to december, while feb. numbers also show an increase compared to january.

Most likely first quarter retail sales are going to show as an improvement compared to fourth quarter sales.  Everyone is going to use this data and call it a sign of the bottom.

 

DO NOT BELIEVE A WORD OF IT!

The only reason january and feb. sales are up is that people purchased gift cards in november/december to give to people as christmas gifts.  Due to accounting rules these gift cards can not be counted as sales until they are redeemed.

The improvement in jan/feb is only due to the accounting rules and does not reflect an increase in purchasing power.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 13, 2009 at 3:34 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

As a bookseller I can tell you that is exactly what happened and people waited for the sales on top of that. But you have to trade the up side and let the market go up and then fall again.

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#2) On March 13, 2009 at 3:49 PM, cubanstockpicker (20.63) wrote:

let them pump it up, I will short too after the pump. every bag coming out BBYs are the size of a grocery bag, not enough big ticket items being sold. Maybe if they moved the small stuff to the empty or closing CC stores it could help reduce costs.

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