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alstry (35.76)

20% Unemployment...In the Bag????

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June 16, 2008 – Comments (10)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The McClatchy Company said Monday it plans to cut about 10% of its workforce, or 1,400 full-time equivalent employees, citing "today's difficult advertising market." In a separate statement, McClatchy also said it May total revenue fell 15.1% on year and its advertising revenue was down 16.6% on year. It added that the declines in print advertising were partially offset by a 12.9% gain in online advertising revenues in May 2008 compared to May 2007.

 

Almost everyone is reducing workforces.  Hearing about 10% cuts is becoming more and more frequent.  Many businesses are shutting down completely!!!!!

Again, 20% unemployment by the time Barak is elected may even be conservative....we are over 25% of the way there and that doesn't even count those that have been unemployed for over six months...do you know any of those people??????

One morning, maybe we will all wake up and say...wow!!!!

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 16, 2008 at 10:33 AM, abitare (99.44) wrote:

alstry,

You maybe one of the only people more bearish then me? But you have to remember, many of the first people to get laid off are here illegally and may not get counted in you unemployment numbers.

 

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#2) On June 16, 2008 at 10:43 AM, Gemini846 (89.12) wrote:

Actually I live in Florida and I don't personally know anyone who wants a job that doesn't have one.  I sent people to 3 seperate job fairs representing over 40 local companies who need qualified people now.

Whether or not Americans want more hand outs and entitlement programs is up for grabs (I'm betting they do). It's only a matter of the dems making sure they are stupid enough to pay for it w/out letting on.

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#3) On June 16, 2008 at 11:06 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

For someone that lives in Florida, you have little perspective of what is going on in your state.

Why don't you look at Florida's recent sales tax receipts.

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#4) On June 16, 2008 at 11:13 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

abit,

It is not that I am more or less bearish than anyone....it is simply I look at the data and draw conclusions.

Many businesses and industries are laying off workers in record numbers right now.  Revenues are shrinking accross the board for even more.

If you sales are down you must contract...if interest rates and oil keep rising....we as a nation will shut down completely....for a while until we restructure.

Many many families simply can't afford the over $10K per year hidden tax punching them in the face every day with higher food and fuel prices.  And if they have no access to their home equity, we are going to see lots more bodies in the street.....SOON!!!!!!!

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#5) On June 16, 2008 at 11:23 AM, leohaas (93.60) wrote:

"It is not that I am more or less bearish than anyone....it is simply I look at the data and draw conclusions."

Alstry, you ARE one of the top bears, definitely on this blog. We are nowhere near 20% unemployment. That is just your opinion of where we will be in about half a year.

Sure, businesses are laying off people. Certain industries are down the drain. But that is nothing else than capitalism at work. At some point, the pendulum will swing back as part of the business cycle. That's the way it has always been. 

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#6) On June 16, 2008 at 11:36 AM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

We are much closer than you think to 20%unemployment.  If we utilized methods applied in the 70s, we could be over 10% right now!!!!

I havn't even addressed the issue of functional unemployment-people working but not earning enough to make a subsistance living.

I interview business owners, bankers, lawyers, ect...all the time....very very soon America will appreciate the actual stress its under.

Remember, those that were driving over the bridge were not aware of the distress until the support beam failed.....one support beam brought down the entire bridge.

 

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#7) On June 16, 2008 at 12:45 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

It would be interesting to see an analysis of unemployment based on the 70s data.  Do you have any links for such?

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#8) On June 16, 2008 at 2:43 PM, jsthwrth (94.96) wrote:

Per BLS "Alternative measures of labor underutilization"  for May 2008

U-6: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers:

Non-seasonally adjusted: May 2008=9.4%

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and
  are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,
  have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those
  who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.  For more information, see "BLS
  introduces new range of alternative unemployment measures," in the October 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.  Updated population
  controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Just thought I'd throw that out there.

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#9) On June 16, 2008 at 5:39 PM, Ferrari321 (24.08) wrote:

For what its worth... I'll take the other side of the trade on your 10%+ unemployment call at year end. Don't get me wrong though, I am bearish but I just dont think we will see the UER double in 6 months...would love to hear your thoughts on how we get to 10% UER.

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#10) On June 16, 2008 at 6:33 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

How about reversing the BLS birth death adjustments simply to get us to 10%.

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