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stocksracer (39.94)

2008 - Stock Market Predictions

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December 31, 2007 – Comments (7)

Here are my 2008 stock market predictions:

Here are the sectors that I predict to be UP in 2008:

1) Financials  (Individual picks: Citi, Merill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America)

2) Water (Look for ETFs such as PHO, CGW to beat SP500)

3) Home Builders will start bouncing back as well

4) Materials and Agriculture ( Global demand will continue to rise the demand)

5) Telecom:  (Global demand is still the reason)

6) IT Market: Beaten most of 2007, will see a bounceback here.  Excellent profit margins, will learn to cope with falling dollar.  My pick INFY.

7) Last but not the least: Emerging Markets.  I do not think they are done by any means.  The steam may be off a bit, but still they will beat the SP500 handily in 2008.

 Sectors that will be DOWN in 2008:

1) Health

2) Utilities (may be down or barely manage to beat SP 500)

3) Transportation (May be down due to rising costs overall)

 Other general calls:

I am still bearish on Dollar.  Gold will be a good place for 2008.

Here are few direct picks: 12/31/07

Technology: AAPL $ 99, ANSS $ 41.5, ANST $ 25.5

Agriculture: Multiple picks here: CF $ 110, TNH $ 151, AG $ 68, DE $ 93

Materials: PCU $ 105, FCX 102, Gold ETF

Financials: C $ 29.5, BAC $ 41.4

Housing: PHM $ 10.5 , ITB $ 17.5

Emerging Markets: VIP $ 41.9 EJ $ 24 INFY  $ 45.3 FXI $ 171.5  IFN: $ 62.5  (India and China will be hot)

I would like to hear from you and why you agree or disagree with me.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 31, 2007 at 7:03 PM, collegeeducated (48.54) wrote:

I agree with you on Apple.  I agree with you on emerging markets.  (add Russia to that list as well).  Don't forget about China Mobile for both a technology and China pick.  Telecom big, I like that pick.  I pick T, VZ, VOD.

I disagree on financials and homebuilders.  I think that the financials will turn before the homebuilders will, but that all of the writedowns and bad news must pass before the volaitility will stop.  We have no clear news signifying that we are done or even close to done with an assessment of the writedowns and/or when things will start to pick up instead of stagnating or declining. 

People are saying that gold will go up in 2008 in fact I have not heard one person say that it will go down in 2008.  Add oil to that list.

Out of all of the hot places that are providing huge returns from commodities to global markets, etc. one or more are bound to disappoint.

I say the homebuilders and financials will remain sectors to avoid for now and agriculture will disappoint.

 

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#2) On December 31, 2007 at 8:33 PM, dwot (40.93) wrote:

1) Financials  (Individual picks: Citi, Merill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America)

Citi and Merill Lynch are fighting for solvency and their credit problems will likely continue for the next couple years.  I believe Bank of America stayed away from the riskiest mortgages but I am not so sure they will recover this year and I'm not sure about Goldman Sachs.

2) Water (Look for ETFs such as PHO, CGW to beat SP500)

Water is good.  I haven't looked closely as how to invest in water, but water is at critical levels and those with water will do so much better. 

3) Home Builders will start bouncing back as well

No way, half will go bankrupt. 

4) Materials and Agriculture ( Global demand will continue to rise the demand)

I think the world economy will slow, not food, but materials. 

5) Telecom:  (Global demand is still the reason)

Not sure. 

6) IT Market: Beaten most of 2007, will see a bounceback here.  Excellent profit margins, will learn to cope with falling dollar.  My pick INFY.

I think too much money has already looked to the IT market to be rescued. 

7) Last but not the least: Emerging Markets.  I do not think they are done by any means.  The steam may be off a bit, but still they will beat the SP500 handily in 2008.

I see to many things with emerging markets that I think they will have a pull back as they have to sort their economies out with respect to what a slowing global economy means.  I think they don't do so well next year, but recover quickly. 

 Sectors that will be DOWN in 2008:

1) Health - agree

2) Utilities (may be down or barely manage to beat SP 500) - If I was in the market I think this might be a safer place.

3) Transportation (May be down due to rising costs overall) - a huge hit, slow down and rising costs.

Gold will be a good place for 2008 - for Americans... 

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#3) On January 02, 2008 at 12:01 PM, edwjm (99.87) wrote:

I agree with you on heath care.  This may have been 2007's most overhyped sector.  Yes. there is a demigraphical advantage, but that is no secret.  It is well known and fairly reflected in prices.

 

I fear you optimism on financials and homebuilders is premature. 

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#4) On January 02, 2008 at 6:56 PM, stocksracer (39.94) wrote:

Collegeeducated, dwot, edwjm, thanks for your feedback. 

I have recently talked to VP Channel for Mutual Friends (happens to be my very good personal friend) and gained quite a good insight on how they buy.  Hence is my optimism on Citi.  Also, I believe the citi's management is fresh now and looks prime to handle thier current crisis.  Hence, Citi being my pick.  Financial sector is surely under my watch and I believe after first quarter writedowns are done, they will only have exceeding earnings expectations to go on for a atleast a few quarters.  It will be the turn around story of 2008... Currently they are writing down everything they can get their hands on.  However. not all the loans they write-down are going to be bad ones!  Some will surely be repaid and hence additional money in future quarters.  The games these folks play......uggh. 

Housing may take a little longer.. I am not suggesting people dump all their position at once on housing and I am not calling it a bottom either right now.. but I believe 2008 will be a turn-around year for housing.  I do not predict the SP500 to have a great year.. just an average one. 

I am an accumulator... never buy all at one position.  So, in bottom fishing I think we are pretty close on Financials, so starting to accumulate (over a long term perspective) may be a good one to do here.

See the action in Gold today!! Gold surely looks like the sentiment to be in for 08.

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#5) On February 04, 2008 at 12:57 AM, stocksracer (39.94) wrote:

Currently I am tracking a portfolio with my individual tickers as mentioned above, with $ 1,000 in each stock.

 Here is my first month performance:

Mine: - 5.09%

SP 500: - 4.97%

So, currently I am losing to the SP 500

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#6) On December 24, 2008 at 9:42 AM, bappulahiri (< 20) wrote:

Hahahahaha.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHA

 

No, really.

 

HAHAHAHHAA

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#7) On December 24, 2008 at 9:48 AM, bappulahiri (< 20) wrote:

OK, more  seriously now, let's review your picks:

Citi: -78.6%

Merrill Lynch: -79.6%

Goldman Sachs: -64.7%

BoA: -69%

No, I can't do any more - I'm laughing too much.....

 

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