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Melaschasm (70.03)

2012 Predictions Mostly Accurate



January 03, 2013 – Comments (0)

1.  The S&P ends the year around 1400.  I was wrong.

2.  My CAPS score ends the year above 500.  No surprise that I was wrong, there is a reason I use an asset allocation model for my real portfolio.

3.  Real Estate prices bottom in 2012.  I was right

4. Real Estate prices finish the year with at least three consecutive monthly YoY increases.  I was right

5.  The unemployment rate stays above 7% all year.  I was right.

6.  Core inflation for the year will be between 3 and 4 percent.  I was wrong

7.  Crude oil will mostly stay in the $80 to $120 range this year.  I was right

8.  US Interest rates will not change much this year.  I was right

9.  The Euro will still be the currency for most of Europe a year from now.  I was right

10.  Being long S&P 500 will be more profitable than being long gold.  I was right.

Total score for the year:  70% right, 30% wrong.  I am very surprised that the S&P 500 had such a bad year.  

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