2012 Predictions Mostly Accurate
1. The S&P ends the year around 1400. I was wrong.
2. My CAPS score ends the year above 500. No surprise that I was wrong, there is a reason I use an asset allocation model for my real portfolio.
3. Real Estate prices bottom in 2012. I was right
4. Real Estate prices finish the year with at least three consecutive monthly YoY increases. I was right
5. The unemployment rate stays above 7% all year. I was right.
6. Core inflation for the year will be between 3 and 4 percent. I was wrong
7. Crude oil will mostly stay in the $80 to $120 range this year. I was right
8. US Interest rates will not change much this year. I was right
9. The Euro will still be the currency for most of Europe a year from now. I was right
10. Being long S&P 500 will be more profitable than being long gold. I was right.
Total score for the year: 70% right, 30% wrong. I am very surprised that the S&P 500 had such a bad year.