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June 13, 2009 – Comments (32) | RELATED TICKERS: FA.DL , SIEGY , N


This is a test, this is only a test.  

This is a test of the Fools Advisor SKY is/isn't Falling Network  FASIN. Also short for Fasten Your Seatbelts and Hug Your Knees.   This is only a test. It has only been ran on a Saturday to minimize confusion.  Fools should be out enjoying the weather, watching/playing sports, spending time with family, counting their money, building thier bunkers, buying C-rations, calibrating their options calculator or whatever Fools do when not on CAPS.

If this had been  Portefeuille    or one of his many alias that helped propel him to the top TEN then you would have been alerted by: " ... " in the title and not ***     Be advised that if you are alerted by Portefeuille or one of his ali then you need to read the post carefully and then discard it. Saving it to your "following" tab will only cause confusion as it will be indistinguishable from his other blogs with the exact same title and outdated in a short time.

If this had been a Class 5 SKY IS FALLING Alert, you would most likely have been alerted to Alstry for an Alstrynomics update.  Do be careful here as well. With an average of 4 blogs per day, you must be careful to ensure you are reading the correct alert.  If you aren't sure howver, it's not a big deal as they all start to sound the same after a few blogs.

You might also have been directed to Abitare for an equally dire, but more understandable blog.

For equally BEARISH, but not nearly so gloomy news, and often news you should know, you may have been directed to Dwot a long time CAP's favorite who has been bearish, but not bitter.

For ugent Elliot Wave Analysis (EWA) you would have been directed to Goodvibe4Ever's community.  Be careful here. Look at the information or guidance, but don't try to understand it unless you have weeks to invest. Should you wish to learn EWT then you would be directed to  RussWild a patient teacher with excellent basic tutorials.  EWT is very useful, but if you receive an emergency alert, time may be short.  Be advised as well that Eliott Wave Analysis in a recession is very volitile.  It attempts to predict what may have happened, use archaic Roman Numerals and One, Two, Three, X's (tic-tac-toe), to divine what just happened and then predict what might happen.  The odds are that by the time that you find the blog, the information, the swish of the tea grounds, MARs, and the market have moved on, most likely contrary to the prediction, but never fear the 1,2,3, A, B, C's (and X) will be adjusted accordingly.

WARNING.  The Goodvibe4Ever community's latest forecasts are often hid in a shroud. You may enter, but be very careful.  The CIL is THIRD Dimension where great minds lurk to interpret the charts.  There is a mix of astrology, pathology, theology, investology, ETFology, particularly FAS/FAZology, Foolology, etc. To my knowledge there is no Alstryology, so in some regards there is comfort in this third dimension.

For additional EWT you may be directed to Binve  while similar to the GV community, the discussion behind the EWT is clear and explained to those who have trouble with their ABC's.

For general Technical Analysis, or interpretation of the trends, you might be directed to Goldminingexpert  Goldmining is his specialty, but making market calls is another specialty worthy of a read. Of late GMX has been bearish, with the markets screaming to January 1st levels. While some see this as a natural correction from the overdone March 9th lows, others believe it is too much, too fast, to be healthy and a correction is needed.

For an example of how being Bullish at exactly the right time (March 9th) can be for your portfolio, and an example of a use of bullish ETF's you might have been directed to UltraLong  His meteoric rise in three short months to the number 2 CAPs Slot has been a shining example of Market Timing and leveraging ETF's. While the odds of timing the market nearly perfect on a Bull or Bear call is slim, UltraLong just may have done it.  Of course some meteors follow set patterns and some come crashing down. Will a bear market extinguish the flame....stay tuned, maybe UltraShort will rise.

For an astrology update, you may have been directed to Kstarich. Gold, Silver, and oil are specialties inclined to drift with the planets in a never ending variety of induced influence.

For a good read, often non-investing, but full of useful info you might have been directed to Mary953.  Mary is one of my all time favorites and I learned the most from her when the market was at it's worse. Mary, unfortunately Blogs all to rarely, especially at tax season, but has some great blogs in her archive for new players.

There are many more CAP's players that you might be alerted to in the event of an emergency. 

There are many "specialists", such as GMX for miners.  Another example is  zzlangerhans and aracer for biotechs and pharmaceuticals.  When they disagree I have to dig in with DD or stay away. When they agree then look out. (Check out BDSI on Monday).   And many others.

 Bull, Bear, TA, EWT, Astrology, Specialist Gurus, multi-profile wizards, etc. Please be advised that none of these CAP's players have all (any) of the answers. IN most cases, they are real people behind the facade.

There are many more that you could directed to in an emergency. Please add your favorites and when we should be alerted to them in the comments below.

The CAP's community is the greatest in the world. Any comments above are all in fun.  While you may disagree with some, (most, okay all), thier blogs are open for the world.  Don't ridicule what you don't understand, start your own alerts blog if you have other views. Add to, take from, give back to, just don't try to break our community. It takes a diverse community to entertain and cover all the investing bases. WE as a community are ready to share our opinions, sometimes very generously and always openly.  If an actual SKY is FALLING emergency occurs then you can trust that we have it covered!

TSIF  (The SKY isn't Falling).

(My opinion, I have lots of them as well, mostly wrong, but I think this one is correct, although we might get a thunderstorm soon).


32 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 13, 2009 at 6:49 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

I can't believe I left out hypnotoad. I'm sure I left out hundreds of worthy alert bloggers, but I should never have left out HypnoToad  Rumor has it that Hypno only comes out when times are dire and rests when times are good. Unfortunately of late there is no rest for Hypno, although it appears he recently too a well deserved vacation or had to climb out from under the lilly pad when he overshot for a fly. 

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#2) On June 13, 2009 at 11:04 PM, goldminingXpert (28.89) wrote:

This is seriously the GREATEST BLOG POST EVER. I loved it and have recced it.

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#3) On June 13, 2009 at 11:11 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

GMX!  Don't tease me like that!  :)

 Everydayinvestor writes the greatest blogs!  You're reminding me that I left him out!  I hope he gets settled into Michigan and gets his bunker set up without any issues.  Hopefully he will keep checking back in!

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#4) On June 13, 2009 at 11:19 PM, goldminingXpert (28.89) wrote:

Please be advised that none of these CAP's players have all (any) of the answers. IN most cases, they are real people behind the facade.

There are many more that you could directed to in an emergency.

I am available to dispense advice in cases of emergency. I am also, in fact, a real person. However, my advice may be somewhat limited... however, if you're feeling desperate, give me a holler. Even if you don't reach me, my voicemail says it all, "Buy JAG, buy WNR, buy BWP, for the loveofgod buy JBLU and for pete's sake short everything else. GO NOW! SHORT! SHORT! SHORT!" (this advice may (hopefully) change when a bull market begins.)

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#5) On June 13, 2009 at 11:25 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

ah, hope the pessimistic one is ensrined in a glass case but there is an ax in case of emergency, lol.  hope my aim is true....

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#6) On June 13, 2009 at 11:39 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

gmx, I am not against you, and you are true when you say nobody has the answers


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#7) On June 14, 2009 at 1:06 AM, Evlampius (24.00) wrote:

ha! that is a good read! thanks TSIF

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#8) On June 14, 2009 at 2:17 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.59) wrote:

I got a good laugh from this, rec #15 from me


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#9) On June 14, 2009 at 4:25 AM, walt373 (99.88) wrote:

Great post.

Someone should make a list of the experts in all the different industries (like zzlangerhans and aracer). Would be very useful.

Everydayinvestor has the most logical blogs I've read on CAPS.

You forgot TMFDeej, he posts a lot of good stuff too.

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#10) On June 14, 2009 at 4:51 AM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

#9 tmfdeej is also one of the multi-profile wizards,


Do I have multiple accounts?  Sure.  I've said so multiple times over the past several months.  Lots of people do, like "positive" this or "negative" that etc...  I play around with different portfolios like my uber bull portfolio megank12 or my dollar is doomed portfolio manntetra.  I don't have a dozen of them floating around out there.  How in the heck would one even manage that many?  Perhaps I should label them TMFDeejMegaBull or TMFDeejDollarDoomed to make them clearer.


(from comment #10 here)

so is goldminingxpert (see this post).

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#11) On June 14, 2009 at 9:24 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

I certainly did leave off a few. Add them in!

Portefeuille, I do apolgize as I realize at least one area that I clearly mis-spoke. I believe you have 3 in the top ten, not one. Hard to tell as that top 10 has become a little volitile in this bull (bull/bear) market and I can't keep up with whose/who for secondary players.  

Maybe you should have CAPs label some SECDollarDoomed.  Short for "Secondary" and then FOOL could keep all accounts that start with SEC off the standings.  SEC stands out as well. Hijacking it to mean Secondary would give it much more value than the worthless agency that carries the same name!

I'm not making a call either way. I'm here to learn and have some fun and hopefully those who see a blog title " ... " will know its from you no matter which profile you are blogging from! :)

At any rate, those who can keep up with multiple accounts have my respect for their ability to handle them. If they ever perfect a cloning machine there are more than a few people that we need to keep out of it!!!!

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#12) On June 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

I believe you have 3 in the top ten, not one.

It is one (portefeuille) in the top 10 but I do not really care about the top10. I suggested separating "primary" from "secondary" players here.

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#13) On June 14, 2009 at 9:42 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

Got it Port, I hadn't had my coffee yet this morning. I'll get the intravenous plg in shortly!  It was 10 of your players in the top 100.  So 10% of the top 100!!!    I believe you have a lot of picks common to several of your profiles, so much for the star rating system that's weighted on top players!   Fool-on!

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#14) On June 14, 2009 at 9:48 AM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:


I do not want to "crowd out" other players or be "crowded out" by other secondary players. I do want to keep them alive, but maybe they could be taken out of the ranking systems. Maybe add a button to "include/not include" secondary players, default being "do not include secondary players" ...

top lists are nonessential but since "Americans love top tens" ...


(from that post I mentioned)

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#15) On June 14, 2009 at 9:52 AM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

... , so much for the star rating system that's weighted on top players!

Maybe they should exclude the calls made by "secondary players" from the calculation of the "star ranking system". I am not sure whether that improves it, but I can see why that might be considered.

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#16) On June 14, 2009 at 10:08 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

Got it Portefeuille! Unfortunately there have been some great suggestions in blogs that seem to get lost in the noise. I know Jake has some under consideration.  I think that FOOLS should have a CAPs Player DAY, somewhere in the US. Maybe Hawaii...:)   (Those from other countries could send a clone or two, the US needs the tourist business for our economy).

WE could have a forum, beam it in from several locations and give the FOOLs some live discussion, preferably over an open bar that FOOL paid for. After all, our pitches and blogs help keep the community alive.   ALL FOOLS Day.  It could be on April 1st instead of FOOL buying GM or some other bad investment, but that seems too far away. Mabye Halloween.  Maybe if they hoopla'd it up between then. 

We could have some investment classes, meet the "FOOLS", top fools could sign autographs, souvineers, etc.

Thanks again for clarifying.

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#17) On June 14, 2009 at 10:12 AM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

no problem!

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#18) On June 14, 2009 at 12:42 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

floridabuilder2  : Home builder specialist.  Doesn't blog as much as he use to for various reasons.  However, his "archives" are an excellent example of how a sector can start diversing.  His calls of "good" vs. "bad" home builders, all who would struggle in a recession, but which might survive has been spot on.  Calls for consolidation and mergers have started to happen.  Most home builders use to move as a group on economic data, but are starting to separate.

Banks, in a similar manner do not all move as one now.  Look for this type of segmenting to occur in other sectors.

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#19) On June 14, 2009 at 3:50 PM, FreundInvesting (28.85) wrote:

I'm sad I wasn't included. But that's ok, I don't speak too often.

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#20) On June 14, 2009 at 6:06 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

No Freund, you're extremely quiet compared to the others that made the first pass. You're blogs, however, are concise and to the point. I think your call for S&P down to 350 by June 2010 is the lowest I have seen. I know you have a good feel for small business, but your call of 350 without the dire addition that  80-90% of us will be ZOMBULATED, or something similar, to wake us up,  gets lost by the 50 new blogs per day. (45 if you exclude alstry). Some bloggers have you 30-100 per month. But, it's quality, not quantity, so keep it up! 


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#21) On June 15, 2009 at 12:55 AM, Tastylunch (28.76) wrote:

LOL that was hilarious!

didn't realize that's what TSIF stood for.

TMFSinchiruna is huge oversight though, sould probbaly include him your next blog

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#22) On June 15, 2009 at 3:31 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

TSIF, Dude that is awesome! Thanks for the shout out man :) Rec from me for sure!

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#23) On June 15, 2009 at 6:33 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna is probably the best known blogger here on CAPs.  He was THREE years old when he started on CAPs. The above alerts were issued in the event of dire emergencies, but for stability TMFSinchiruna would be a good alert to hold onto for general use.  News you can use, charts, international alerts, Christopher covers the gambit with about 20 blogs per month.  If getting ZOMBULATED every day becomes to much, a dose of Chris is a good antidote for some useful normalacy. Also look for his articles on the Motley Fool Investing board. Unlike the hundreds of others that FOOL publishes on almost every stock in the world to get FOOLish attention to our community, Christopher's have some real meat behind them.  Christopher's CAPs score is not always at a peak because he's a "low beta" player. He's also to hyped on silver and gold, (IMNSHO) but his day will come!

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#24) On June 15, 2009 at 6:45 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

TastyLunch alerts would most likely direct you to a tasty delicacy for big fat red thumb.  Tasty searches out those delicious morsels of company's that are usually pretending to be something they are not.  A main course on Buffet or the SEC can also be tossed in for your balanced dining.  Some would say picking PK and OB stocks that are mis-valued or overhyped is "gaming" the system. You can learn a lot from a TastyLunch selection. Rather than just piling on, (aka dogpile), one should do some DD and read the 10Q's and balance sheets on these companies, read up on paid shills (pumpers and dumpers), and get a feel for how this works.  Many PK stocks are good foreign companies with a US PK listing and worthy of a green thumb, some OB stocks are companies just getting started. OB stocks, however, do not have the regulatory oversite, (for what it's worth), that the main boards do.  Tasty finds some where the CEO is on his forth pump and dump or where patents are farces.  Playing them on CAPs is sometimes fun and is educational, but be careful.  Some OB stocks in particular BITE.   (MXFD.OB, GORO.OB) 

Many are VERY Tasty!

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#25) On June 15, 2009 at 10:06 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

My blog apparently hit a nerve with Goodvibe. I presented BINVE and RUSSWILD as others who present EWT. If you want to follow Goodvibe's blogs and examples, please see his archive of blogs.  The link to his latest third dimension doorway and his call out of me for poking fun at EWT is HERE.

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#26) On June 16, 2009 at 12:41 AM, Tastylunch (28.76) wrote:


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#27) On June 16, 2009 at 12:47 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:


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#28) On June 16, 2009 at 6:07 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

This is clearly all in good fun and a great post TSIF : )

I'm not sure why GoodVibe took it so personally but he has poured a tremendous amount of effort into "Fool" and many of us are very grateful for the advise.

It's probably worth pointing out that the reason he uses the "third dimension doorway" chat room is so his posts don't dominate the "Fool" home page.

LOL, "This is a test of the Fools Advisor SKY is/isn't Falling Network  FASIN."

Very funny Post!!!

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#29) On June 16, 2009 at 9:09 AM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

Thanks IIcx!  I know GV works very hard and I truly meant no disrespect. I'm an equal opportunity satireist!  I'm sure it is because he is working so hard and has put a lot of pressure on himself. He truly wants everyone to do well.  It's been a few tough months and the volitility is tough on everyone!  I have also cautioned in the past to posters such as one 16 year old who lost $20K that FAZ/FAS are not good "investing" tools and not a good place to put "everything",  pushing GV's friction point.  My timing on FASIN seems to have also hit when some other less flattering EWT blogs that I had not seen were active.

Yes, the third dimension allows much faster communication!  The lag of the Fool system to type, review, post and refresh stifles dialogue and minimizes interaction. The Third Dimension is clearly superior for an active community.  I think it limits the number of FOOLS who find the door and dare to enter, but word will get out eventually.



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#30) On June 16, 2009 at 9:33 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the great reply TSIF,

I completely agree about the 3x ETFs and GV has also warned everyone about trading them. He usually posts rules on his blogs warning new members to do their own research before investing and to share charting/not to use his approach blindly. I remember the 16 year old who threw in the towel after the loss but I don't remember him posting in GV's blog before announcing the losses.

GV has taken a lot of unnecessary flack since he started the EW blogs and a lot of people blindly dismiss TA. No idea why since TA is a common tool in every major investment firm.

The Chat Room is fun but I prefer the blog. Check out Google's Wave application when you get a chance. It's absolutely amazing.

Looking forward to your next post. 

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#31) On June 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM, TigerPack1 (33.61) wrote:

That about covers CAPS, in a "nutshell."

I am glad I was not included, as wild animals cannot be cornered without some serious claw lashings.

I try to make picks that flow with the markets, and are just a step or two ahead of everyone else, without upsetting the universe's or CAP's equilibrium.  My best ideas and trades hit before the "average" investor realizes what's going on, then I take my marbles and run without much fanfare or hoopla in the confusion and fog of CHANGE (the attack)... 

There are only about 10 CAPS members left to be successfully hunted down, and I have already taken out 99.98% of all players in a little under a year.  The last several know their names and I will attack when they least expect it, from the shadows on Wall Street at a time of my determination.

My best explanation of CAPS is that it is a large poker game, where you can see everyone else's hand well before the next card is drawn.  If you are good at raw statistical constructs and can "picture" short-term investor changes in behavior and activity using decades of trading experience in the markets, you will do quite well. 


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#32) On June 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

TigerPack   is "misnamed" in that this one typically hunts alone. He sneaks up, hits his prey, and is gone, disappearing into the wind and hiding on the tundra waiting for the next victim. He is content with expanding his territory slowly, but steadily until......

TigerPack should also be feared  for his intelligence. For almost a year he studied under Confucius, learning his trade.

If this had been an actual alert, you would have had NO Warning.....

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