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September 27, 2009 – Comments (13)

Many people remain bearish on the US economy. Very good interview on CNBC by Julian Robertson.

The US will face Armageddon when the Japanese and Chinese stop buying US treasuries. I personally would rate US debt as junk, but for some reason it is still yielding a very low rate. The budget deficit and the Fed's balance sheet are exploding on top of a monstrous current account deficit. The intrinsic value of the dollar is zero. Sell your dollar holdings before the sheep stop accepting them.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/09/julian-robertson-us-may-face-armageddon.html

 

To all the silly people talking about deflation, I will answer your question. We will have deflation if the asset class you are holding is gold, silver and other foreign currencies. Some equities included. 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 27, 2009 at 8:52 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Yes, a nice video. I also posted it yesterday. It is somewhat hidden in comment #40 here.

Here it is with a transcript.

Julian Robertson: Markets Will Pay the Piper

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#2) On September 27, 2009 at 9:35 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Julian Robertson: Markets Will Pay the Piper

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#3) On September 27, 2009 at 11:45 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.72) wrote:

Interesting that he is worried about the debt and the economy but that he supports Cap and Trade.  He was never asked what he thought Cap and Trade would do to the economy or how higher taxes would affect the US manufacturing.  He thought we needed more savings and production, but the policies that he supports would work against these goals.

He is right about the debt and our foreign dependence.

His view of copper going down in an inflationary environment was confusing.

I didn't find him as internally consistent as Schiff, Rogers or Faber.

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#4) On September 27, 2009 at 1:03 PM, kaskoosek (53.16) wrote:

Buying puts on long term treasury is interesting.

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#5) On September 27, 2009 at 2:00 PM, uclayoda87 (29.24) wrote:

  Long TBT or short TLT?  The bet may be right but the timing is critical.  Too early and you lose all the bet, like FAZ and SKF in the last few months.

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#6) On September 27, 2009 at 2:19 PM, kaskoosek (53.16) wrote:

I'm also short jnk to be honest.

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#7) On September 27, 2009 at 10:33 PM, DarthMaul09 (29.72) wrote:

Thanks for the tip on jnk, another red thumb to add to my CAPS collection.

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#8) On September 27, 2009 at 11:25 PM, tonylogan1 (28.15) wrote:

If you are confident in rates going up...

1. short TLT, much better than long TBT.

or

2. save cash and dont buy a house (or sell the one you have)...

rates going up will drive down prices

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#9) On September 28, 2009 at 2:03 AM, uclayoda87 (29.24) wrote:

I'll short TLT in CAPS when rates start going up.  In real life I'll buy CEF on a price correction.  When investors start leaving the bonds, they have to go somewhere.  Gold or silver funds may be the beneficiary, especially if investors begin to fear inflation and the dollar index returns to its downward path.

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#10) On September 28, 2009 at 2:17 AM, kaskoosek (53.16) wrote:

tonylogan1 

do not save cash.

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#11) On September 28, 2009 at 2:24 PM, Tastylunch (29.29) wrote:

well not US cash anyway

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#12) On September 28, 2009 at 6:16 PM, uclayoda87 (29.24) wrote:

Canadian Gold Maple Leaf.

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#13) On October 04, 2009 at 1:24 PM, Teacherman1 (55.68) wrote:

As a former banker (many years ago) there is one thing I remember very clearly; when you advanced a loan past a certain amount, the borrower was in charge, because you couldn't afford to pull the plug.

Perhaps there is a certain similarity with our lenders i.e. Japan and China.

There is also the consideration that if they do something to drastically and suddenly bring the U.S. economy to a resounding crash, they have in effect "killed" their biggest customer.

Just a thought.

 

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