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goldminingXpert (28.62)

33 Hours: Do You Know Where Your Puts Are?



September 27, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , IWM , DIA

We're just a day away from there being no bailout as the markets open Sunday. (Futures and Asia) The market ridiculously pumped itself up last week off rumours of a government throwing money in a foreclosed-on toilet plan. This plan appears to have died a well-deserved death. Now we are up more than 500 points off the rumours of these shenanigans, plus the market is badly overvalued. So at minimum, we take off those 500 points, plus some selling momentum adds in a couple hundred points. Once we punch through Dow 10,000, the selling pressure is going to get harder. While my Dow target has been 9,900 for this year, we could get all the way down to Cramer's 8,300 call for the Dow this autumn. Do you know where your puts are?

P.S. the bailout delays the crash for a week or two... the dow is fundamentally worth 8,000... bailouts will fail until stocks are valued correctly... stocks have to drop 25% to make the market priced right, 40% to get true bargains... voting for a bailout is just equal to selling your grandchildren to the sex slave trade. 

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 28, 2008 at 12:07 AM, StatsGeek (28.50) wrote:

As much as I hate it, the bailout will get passed.

Cramer said that July 15 was the bottom, so it must be true.

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#2) On September 28, 2008 at 2:12 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Read the latest newsletter and learn something.

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#3) On September 28, 2008 at 2:24 AM, daayoo (< 20) wrote:

If Cramer said we are going to 8300 then you know that we will never reach that level. Cramer is the best contrary indacator on earth!!

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#4) On September 28, 2008 at 2:30 AM, FleaBagger (27.52) wrote:

But we're not the ones voting, and our "leaders" have repeatedly proved more than willing to sell our grandchildren to the sex slave trade, as you so delicately put it.

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#5) On September 28, 2008 at 2:54 AM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

if there is no bailout by Monday--the market plunges regardless. The clock is ticking. 15 hours until futures open. 29 hours until pre-market trading gets going on Monday.

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#6) On September 28, 2008 at 9:37 AM, Terok1313 (29.55) wrote:

You don't really think congress is going to put off their campaigning (vacation) time any longer than they have to, do you?

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#7) On September 30, 2008 at 11:48 PM, terminusaquo (< 20) wrote:

I know that it's an awful lot of fun to make comments like, "voting for a bailout is just equal to selling your grandchildren to the sex slave trade" but how about some rational arguments to support the linguistic histrionics?  Do you believe that home prices will be lower in one, two, and three years from where they now languish?  Do you conclude that collateralized mortgage assets, currently marked-to-a-market that is anything but a market, will not appreciate to a level that reflects reality, albeit a dark reality, rather than the current collective anaphylactic shock?  Why so?  We should all hold ourselves accountable to the seventh-grade expectation of backing our arguments with supporting evidence, which, if not statistical, is at least anecdotal.     

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