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TMFAleph1 (94.95)

4 Predictions for 2011

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9

December 29, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: JNJ , CSCO , EBAY

My four predictions for 2011. I guarantee you'll disagree with at least one of them!

Alex Dumortier

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 29, 2010 at 9:11 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

hello tmf i just watched a video on TGB stock website on the what now video and the tgb dude was blabing along and blurted out that copper was going to drop and gold also to 900 bucks like he was talking in a manner that led me to  believe this is ordained by the market manipulators. go to tgb website and watch the video. it's like they already know the game plan

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#2) On December 30, 2010 at 1:30 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I agree with the first two.  #3 is possible and #4...I don't really care.

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#3) On December 30, 2010 at 1:44 AM, TMFAleph1 (94.95) wrote:

@TMFBabo

Ha! To tell you the truth, I don't much care about #4, either, but the topic popped into my head because there has been so much buzz around the company.

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#4) On December 30, 2010 at 11:35 AM, silverminer (31.45) wrote:

ragedmaximus,

You misunderstood Mr. Hallbauer's statement.

He is referring to mining industry consensus estimates for long-term gold and copper prices. By necessity, the mining industry is extremely conservative with long-term price assumptions, and that $975 gold / $2.50 copper assumption he referenced is actually way ahead of most recently completed gold / copper projects which were developed using approximately $800 / $2 price assumptions. It would take a few more years of these elevated prices for project assessments to start using, say, $1,200 gold as a long-term base case scenario.

He did not say that copper and gold would drop.

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#5) On December 30, 2010 at 11:51 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Alex, I think Facebook's kind of like the Tiger Woods scandal stuff - we don't really want to hear about it, but we all clicked on the stories anyway when they were published just to see what was going on.

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#6) On January 05, 2011 at 7:11 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Always like to see your beginning of the year picks and predictions, MarathonMan! 

Guess if there's one thing I disagree on, it's the idea that the 'market is overvalued' and that 'large caps are more undervalued than small caps.'  

I think large caps are more obviously undervalued (due to the safety factor); but small caps are probably more undervalued overall (market overestimating risk).  Of course, things differ sector to sector, but particularly in banking, I think small cap US banks are still extremely undervalued in the aggregate and it will take some strong hints of a recovery before investors really begin to get comfortable with them again.  Whereas, investors have already become semi-comfortable with the big banks.


The strange things about us ... it seems like we're more likely to disagree on larger macro stuff, but our actual stock picks end up being similar more often than not.  Starwood (HOT), Massey (MEE), Netflix (NFLX), and even one of my favorite companies, Red Hat (RHT) --- are amongst the stocks that I believe are overheated.   Likewise, homebuilders (PHM, DHI, LEN), insurers (GNW, etc.), banks, and some select energy plays are amongst the companies that I believe are the best buys right now. 

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