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4 Real Money Trades



October 29, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: GNK , AOBC , IVAC

So after sitting in 70% cash and 30% mostly international stocks since August, I have decided to start buying up a few positions again.

The positions I purchased are:

GNK - I am always a sucker for these bulk water transportation companies....  BUT I just love these fundamentals.  I can make a pretty sound argument for a fair price being about $30 for these guys....  Not sure when that will happen though...

IVAC - Like the trend in their quarterly data, I don't think its unfair to suspect a price of around $15/share for them.   

ORN - Strong fundamentas, good yearly revenue growth.  I expect 25$ price.

SWHC - Wanted to own something somewhat interesting.  This company seems to be mispriced based on its fundamentals.  Also, my new sentiment tool indicates that this company may see some strong upward movement within the next month.  I think they deserve a 9$ price, but I dont think that is going to happen anytime soon.

As usual, I evaluated all these stock based on my fundamental tool which ranks them against 4,000 other stocks on 10 different indicators.  I feel better about the economy now than I did in August (not a lot better, but better), and was ready to put a little back in. 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 29, 2010 at 4:38 PM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

Seems like GNK and IVAC are pretty cyclical - highly responsive to the health of the economy.  I guess IVAC could be a buyout candidate, given WDC and STX's large cash hordes.

How does your technical tool like GNK, EXM, etc.?

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#2) On October 29, 2010 at 4:52 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

 Sitting on your cash and deciding now Is the time to jump back In ?   Glad to see you back,but confused on your timing. Is this because you are bullish On the stock market In general,or are these stocks that you like In any market environment ?  :)   TS

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#3) On October 29, 2010 at 6:18 PM, anticitrade (98.95) wrote:

MegaEurope -

Thanks for the insight on GNK and IVAC.  My models DCF focus tends to pick buyout candidates.

Technically it's not technical analysis, so I am assuming you are using the word "technical tool" in the same way I just used it..... the first time.

The DCF of GNK is vastly superior to that of EXM.  If you ignore the DCF you could probably justify a price of 7-9 for EXM, which isnt near the potential I see in GNK.

Topsecret10 - I am not really getting back in now because I love the current market.   I think these stocks are pretty decent in any market.  I chose them because I dont see much downside risk (based on their historical ranges).  All the macro stuff I look at suggests slow improvement (except the housing market which I think has fundamentally changed).

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#4) On October 30, 2010 at 11:23 AM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

I meant your sentiment tool.  I assume that is technical (meaning related to the price and volume history, not to the fundamentals).

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#5) On October 30, 2010 at 12:37 PM, anticitrade (98.95) wrote:

The concept behind my sentiment tool is to correlate what people are searching for on the internet with stock prices or macro trends (like auto builds).  I have had only limited success with specific stocks, but I am still in a testing phase. 

For GNK it doesnt provide a very strong correlation, and doesnt suggest either a jump or drop in price over the next 2 months.

Not enough search history for EXM..


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#6) On November 01, 2010 at 2:15 PM, mikecart1 (74.84) wrote:

I think you picked a bad time bro.  I see the market taking a hit for the rest of 2010.

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#7) On November 01, 2010 at 5:53 PM, anticitrade (98.95) wrote:

mikecart1 - You may very well be right.  However, I am still 50% cash right now and focused on positions that never really rebounded from the original crash.  So I think my downside is so somewhat limited. 

I think that their are some political moves that could cause a short term upward movement in the market.  We shall see.

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#8) On November 02, 2010 at 3:01 PM, anticitrade (98.95) wrote:

Looks like IVAC saw an 19% jump today.  That was quicker than I expected, but I am planning on holding it for a much longer period than a week.  The others all seem to be doing well....  I believe that the republican takeover will be bullish for the market.

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