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alstry (< 20)

48 Hours



March 12, 2008 – Comments (3)

I am going out on a limb on this one..........but the next 48 hours could be some of the most interesting in a while............I will not do this often but in light of my favorite CAPs player focusing on the next three months, I thought time to step up to the plate and narrow the time frame.

Right now the market thinks that the FED is pouring money into the system,  It thinks that it will cut interest rates 75 basis points next week.  It thinks that the bottom is in place and time to buy buy buy.

In hockey terms, the team is pinching in the corner trying to control the puck.  The problem is that if the puck gets loose and an opposing player gets the puck near center ice, he is home free for the breakaway. 

What if the Fed is not really flooding the system with money?  What if there is no 75 basis point cut?  What if the Fed's new problem is addressing runaway inflation potentially destroying the savings and profitability of American individuals and corporations?   Could the Fed be developing a stealth conscious for the savers of America?  What if the puck comes loose?

Hang on, the next 48 hours could be expolsive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 12, 2008 at 1:49 PM, charlesblazer (30.31) wrote:

Indeed, I have the same feelings and wonder the same thing.  So what do you think will happen if the Fed "only" cuts by 50 basis points?

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#2) On March 12, 2008 at 2:01 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

50 basis points?, right now it is looking closer to 25, if anything.

We are at 155+ Euros, $110 Oil, below 103 Yen with external wage pressures

If we cut much further, many of our elderly will not be able to live.  Right now their are a material number of aged in Florida being forced to leave their homes fully paid for because they simply can't afford insurance and property taxes. 

Pretty soon, there will be many more people being called elderly.

The fed must do something to stem the devaluation of the dollar or we will have a bunch of indigent retired folks in America. 

Right now, a 1000 to 1500 point decline over the next 48 hours is not out of the one knows for sure but we will see.

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#3) On March 12, 2008 at 4:55 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.33) wrote:

Ivy calling for 20-25% drop in existing homes and 10% more in new homes. Has a hard time seeing the glass half-full. 

Foreclosures at accelerated pace in 2009...

I don't understand how should could positive on any HBs now. Why not have all HBs at Sell - this Market Perform, Market Underperform is BS.  Are the ratings supposed to be relative to other builders or relative to the overall market (i.e. S&P).  Do you know?

Thanks for the link to the interview. 


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