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XMFSinchiruna (27.97)

5 Years in the Life of a CAPS Blogger

Recs

38

November 30, 2012 – Comments (39)

I've been pretty slammed lately, between my latest trip to Mexico to tour First Majestic's mines, and authoring some research reports for the Fool, but I definitely wanted to mark the occasion this evening of the fifth anniversary of my blog here on CAPS.

No plans for a retrospective here. Instead, just a few words about some of the moves I've made lately. I've initiated a major position in Molycorp near the recent 52-week low, and I'm very excited with the potential here. The price here is pretty astonishing just as the mine is coming online, and I expect the company's brilliant acquisitions to come to life as this product moves down the company's value-added supply chain.

I've sold my entire stake in Kimber Resources. As many of you know, I had been a holder of these shares for many years (since 2006 I think), and I continue to wish the company well in realizing some value for Monterde. But after speaking at length with some extremely knowledgeable folks with direct knowledge of the deposit, the absence of any buyout interest for the stock now makes more sense to me. It's not that the deposit has gone unnoticed, but rather that it's been examined and passed upon. I hope the company scores a home run, but I no longer retained sufficient expectation of such an outcome to retain my large holding. 

I keep adding more Claude Resources and Sabina Gold & Silver.  Also Major Drilling, Dolly Varden Silver, Argentum Silver, Etc. 

Just curious... I've kind of ceased posting all my articles here as I used to do with some regularity. Are most of you finding my articles all the same? And do you use the "More Articles" link next to my name in any article to locate the rest of my recent pieces?? Thanks for letting me know!

Still so much to report on my First Majestic trip. Please stay tuned.

Thanks to you all for making my first 5 years as a CAPS blogger such a rewarding and worthwhile experience. I look forward to the rest of the journey to $3,500 gold. 

39 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 30, 2012 at 11:00 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Sinchi,

I haven’t had any problem finding your articles.

Congratulations on your five year “anniversary”!

I am literally richer because of it.

Thanks for all you do.

Best Wishes,

Sky

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#2) On November 30, 2012 at 11:23 PM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Kind of curious if your "Alexandria" position has changed.

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#3) On November 30, 2012 at 11:24 PM, whereaminow (42.76) wrote:

Congratulations!

You're a great researcher and I appreciate all the insight you've provided.  The nature of forecasting is going to lead to ups and downs.  Your best days are ahead of you.

David in Liberty

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#4) On November 30, 2012 at 11:32 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.76) wrote:

Hi Sinch,

Just curious... I've kind of ceased posting all my articles here as I used to do with some regularity. Are most of you finding my articles all the same?

Actually, I was able to find your articles much easier when you posted the links here.

Cheers.

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#5) On December 01, 2012 at 12:07 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

#2) On November 30, 2012 at 11:23 PM, awallejr (86.53) wrote:

 

Kind of curious if your "Alexandria" position has changed."

 awallejr,

F. Y. I.: 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alexandria-drills-116-50-m-151646415.html

 

Alexandria Drills 116.50 m Grading 0.43 g/t Au and 0.24% Cu at Akasaba West

11/29/12

Eric Owens, President and CEO, said, "The importance of these holes is that they confirm broad mineralization and continuity in the West Zone and extend the mineralization deep below our last holes. We are also pleased by the strong copper values received. These results show that we have not yet reached the limits of the deposit and that more potential to enlarge it remains. Accordingly, we will continue to conduct step-out drilling to determine the size potential of the project, and are confident that we will continue to show positive results."

 

Sky 

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#6) On December 01, 2012 at 8:20 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

Awallejr,

My Alexandria position remains as it has been ... My largest equity holding. The market began to give a little overdue love during the last, brief run-up for gold. The current retracement is purely a reflection of broader market dynamics, IMO.

I am very impressed with the amount of drilling the company has completed this year, and obviously the results have been extremely solid. The West Zone brings copper into the equation... An interesting development.  

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#7) On December 01, 2012 at 8:25 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

I'm sorry to hear that. Do me a favor, try bookmarking this link in your web browser:

http://www.fool.com/author/1632/index.aspx

If that doesn't cut it, I can try to get back here to post article links, but that's becoming more challenging.

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#8) On December 01, 2012 at 8:27 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

Thanks Sky and DIQ, and right back at you on both accounts! :)

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#9) On December 01, 2012 at 1:55 PM, Speed03 (< 20) wrote:

Many thanks Chris and congrats on your 5 year anniv.....looking forward to continue reading your articles.

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#10) On December 01, 2012 at 1:58 PM, outoffocus (23.59) wrote:

I have no problem finding your articles when I check twitter regularly.  Problem is I dont check twitter regularly.

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#11) On December 03, 2012 at 4:11 AM, ath002 (< 20) wrote:

Sinchi,

 Congratulations and thanks for all your work. I check your articles page regularly, so no problem in seeing your articles.

Any plans to write something about your top 10 shares for 2013 or something along those lines?

Best to you,

Luis

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#12) On December 03, 2012 at 9:03 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

Definitely... looking forward to following up on the success of the Primero Gold pick, while at the same time redeeming myself from that disastrous Scorpio Mining pick. Ugh... that one blew up in my face! 

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#13) On December 03, 2012 at 11:11 AM, kdakota630 (29.81) wrote:

Congratulations on 5 years, TMFSinchiruna.  You are definitely one of my favourite bloggers on CAPS.

To answer your question, no.  Not because I'm not interested in following your articles, but simply because I thought you were posting them all here.  And I definitely noticed a drop off in your posting here.  I was actually thinking about posting a blog of my own simply to ask where you've been and if all was alright with you.

I guess going forward I will have to regularly check out the link you provided above.

Thanks.

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#14) On December 03, 2012 at 10:14 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

#11) On December 03, 2012 at 4:11 AM, ath002 (44.44) wrote:

 

"Sinchi,

Any plans to write something about your top 10 shares for 2013 or something along those lines?

Best to you,

Luis"

 

Report this comment#12) On December 03, 2012 at 9:03 AM, TMFSinchiruna (58.71) wrote:

 

Definitely... looking forward to following up on the success of the Primero Gold pick, while at the same time redeeming myself from that disastrous Scorpio Mining pick. Ugh... that one blew up in my face! "

Sinchi, 

Looking forward to your "list". 

Thanks, for mentioning PPP.  

I have to whittle down my watch list.... 

I recently sold PPP at a nice profit, thanks to you.  I just had a "feeling" it was time to sell when I did.  My decision wasn't analytical, at all.  Just +30 years of flying by the seat of my pants...

I guess that's why I am going to be an assistant for the rest of my stock picking days....

 I am going to reenter into the position (PPP) at some point.  I like the company and management.

It's a good thing the Market doesn't always price securities accurately.  We make money with good D. D., patience and conviction. 

Your Official Web Link Assistant 

Sky 

 

 

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#15) On December 03, 2012 at 10:44 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Hey Sinchi,

You said that you had initiated a large position in Molycorp (MCP).  I know that their stock has taken a beating this year, which by itself can make a stock a tempting target to try to get on the rebound.  But have you done a careful analysis on it?  If you have, I would enjoy having a look at your homework.

 

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#16) On December 03, 2012 at 11:34 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

"It's not that the deposit has gone unnoticed, but rather that it's been examined and passed upon."

Sinch, is there any reason for this though? I would think the low startup costs to get into production and the current resource itself are enough to interest a mid-tier silver OR gold company, no? I can't see why a company like New Gold, Endeavor, First Majestic, etc. wouldn't want to buy them. Also how do you feel about Cardero here? Thanks as always. 

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#17) On December 04, 2012 at 6:24 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

F. Y. I.:

http://www.pelemountain.com/news-release.php?id=734

 

 Pele Mountain Closes Acquisition of Simon Rare Earth Claims, 1800 Metres from Molycorp’s Mine, Surrounded by Its Mountain Pass Property

9/26/12

Long GEM.V,  GOLDF

Sky

 

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#18) On December 04, 2012 at 10:52 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

NOTvuffet,

I would never dream of initiating a major new core equity position without first performing "a careful analysis on it".

Normally, you would have access to only a synopsis of my DD, but in this case you're in luck. I've authored a comprehensive research report on Molycorp that will soon be available through Fool.com. I'll post a link when it's available.

For any interested, my report on Goldcorp is available here:

http://www.fool.com/m.aspx?i=37003810

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#19) On December 04, 2012 at 11:50 AM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Sinchi,

I didn't mean to imply that you would make a major investment without doing your DD.  I could look up the company's financials easily enough, but I am sure that wouldn't tell me the whole story.  I am sure that since you follow these types of businesses so closely, you will probably have knowledge about their operations that would probably be more important in making a decision to buy or not.

Anyway, I appreciate your efforts and look forward to reading your report. 

 

 

 

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#20) On December 04, 2012 at 3:34 PM, rfcapital (< 20) wrote:

Sinch,

 

Any comments on Tyhee? The stock price has been down a lot and just hit 4 cents today?

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#21) On December 04, 2012 at 10:30 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.76) wrote:

Thanks Sinch,

Bookmarked the link and that is working just fine.

Looking forward to your future articles,(and enjoyed reading the ones I missed).

Cheers.

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#22) On December 04, 2012 at 11:03 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.76) wrote:

One more thing Sinch?

I always have questions about LODE from the Comstock area-

http://www.comstockmining.com/news/press-releases

Any insight would be much appreciated.

(more as a learning experience since my shares have long ago been dilluted). 

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#23) On December 04, 2012 at 11:55 PM, hdotmom (< 20) wrote:

Congrats on your success!  True story....when you told one time of all you have done I thought you had to be up in years.  But then I saw your picture on your page and was surprised.  You have done so much, you are very impressive. 

I have you on my favorites for your blog and articles, I just check them both every few days.  I was wondering why you hadn't posted here lately myself but have been keeping up with your articles.  I don't have time to do d.d. and was not successful at it when I tried.  All my research time goes into my son's care.  I know that is not what you want to hear.  But I so appreciate all of your help.  I am a holder as I never know when to sell.  I am an optomist and always think that if I sell I will just be chasing them higher.  I did miss getting out of scropio and others but that's ok as ppp and your other recommendations have more than made up for them.   If it were possible I would pay you to invest for me.  I feel like I should pay you now for all you have done. Like I told you before the only thing before you that I was successful in was copper fox.  Thanks goodness I only invested in a few back then.  If ever in the Cincinnati area I would love to buy you lunch.   

Rose

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#24) On December 05, 2012 at 10:07 AM, FleaBagger (29.37) wrote:

I haven't been on CAPS much in the last two years or so, but I get on just to read your posts (and whereaminow's). You are one of the best, most informative writers in all of Fooldom, and I appreciate everything you do.

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#25) On December 05, 2012 at 10:18 AM, FleaBagger (29.37) wrote:

I almost forgot to ask: what's the story with Cardero (CDY)?

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#26) On December 05, 2012 at 11:27 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

Cardero's severe weakness is a reflection of how severe this met-coal softness has become in the near-term, exacerbated by the company's high-rate of cash burn and resulting overhang regarding subsequent financing needs. The boom cycle for met coal that formed the baseline for my initial outlook for the stock has been replaced by a more muted long-term bullish outlook flanked by this ongoing near-term malaise that sends investment capital fleeing the space.

I personally have not sold a single share, and have added to my position at multiple points during the decline. But the $4 and $5 price targets I used to have in mind must now be dialed back into the $2.50 to $4 range, IMO.

They've invested much effort and capital on Sheini Hills... much more than I thought they would. With any luck, they'll succeed in selling those assets following the pending release of an initial resource estimate there.

Senior management have been big buyers of the stock under $0.60 per share. Other companies within the Cardero group of companies have continued to execute very well, which alleviates the concern I might otherwise have over some of the decisions that have been made by Cardero along the way. By far the biggest shocker for me was their liquidation of those equity investments they had, and the rate at which the resulting funds were already spent.

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#27) On December 05, 2012 at 1:21 PM, rfcapital (< 20) wrote:

Twice I have made a request for an update on Tyhee, yet no response.  I will take that as a sign that you have dumped the stock....

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#28) On December 05, 2012 at 11:42 PM, charliedawgg (< 20) wrote:

Almost an embarrassing question, Sinch...and it doesn't involve a rash...but what is your take on Great Basin's situation? Trading has been halted for almost two months, and all sorts of rumors abound. Do you think shareholders have been...shafted? (forgive the overused and cliched mining joke). Shall I consider my purchase of GBG shares an expensive spanking...I mean lesson? Also, if you're bored and need to burn some of your copious free time (hardy-har-har), I would appreciate a quick comment on Thompson Creek's prospects for 2013.

 I want to, as several others already have, express my extreme gratitude for your selfless insights, opinions, and efforts over the last two years; alas, I am a relative investment/speculation virgin so I wasn't around for your first three years of contributions. As always, cheers and best regards.

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#29) On December 06, 2012 at 9:36 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

rfcapital,

I still own shares of Tyhee, though fewer than I once held. With no identifiable timeframe for upside catalysts, the stock must now be viewed as a particularly long-shot play that demands a lengthy time horizon. That said, gold's move above $2,000 may provide some relief.

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#30) On December 06, 2012 at 9:49 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

Rose, I hope I find myself in Cincinnati some day. :)  On the days when my will to write may be low, I remind myself of the people I know of out there who might gain something valuable from any given piece. And when I do, I think of you, and your son, and any small contribution I'm able to make is reason enough for me to press on. Your story inspires me.

I am sorry about the Scorpio disaster. I look forward to making up for that one with my next round of calls for 2013. :)

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#31) On December 06, 2012 at 9:53 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

charliedawgg, I stopped following GBG some time ago, so unfortunately I can't offer any timely insight there. What a train wreck!

Thompson Creek is incredibly tough to call. It would take a moly rebound to get the cash flow situation back under control, but the outlook for a near-term moly rebound of any significance looks grim at least for the 1st half of 2013. Rest comes down to execution on the construction front, and their ability to draw a line in the sand against any further cost escalation.

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#32) On December 06, 2012 at 10:54 AM, FleaBagger (29.37) wrote:

Thanks! As always, your intelligence for these matters exceeds and informs my own.

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#33) On December 06, 2012 at 5:22 PM, WarminBuffet (21.14) wrote:

Nice job on the Moly Corp, getting it near its 52 week low.  I have a radical suggestion-- how about recommending a good stock to buy RIGHT NOW instead of smugly patting yourself on the back for all to see.  Are you saying Moly Corp is still a good buy after going up 33% from when you bought it?

 

 

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#34) On December 07, 2012 at 8:46 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.97) wrote:

WarminBuffet,

You won't get any favors out of me by slinging insults. Try again.

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#35) On December 07, 2012 at 3:18 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandstorm-gold-acquires-gold-stream-070000121.html

12/5/12

Sandstorm Gold Acquires Gold Stream From Mutiny Gold

"The transaction with Mutiny Gold marks Sandstorm''s first foray into the Australian market which has had very limited exposure to stream financing," said President & CEO Nolan Watson. "The Deflector Project is expected to be a high-grade, low-cost producer and we believe there is significant exploration upside on the property. Australia has a number of excellent assets and we hope this deal is the first of many in the country."

Hmmm……

Sky

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi

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#36) On December 08, 2012 at 6:37 AM, msubulldogs (< 20) wrote:

Hello, TMFSinchiruna,

I really enjoy your blog and read all of your articles with great interest. I have benefitted greatly from your calls on PPP, SLW, and EXK, and have suffered disappointment with you on several others like AUQ, AXU, GPL, and TC. I am hopeful that eventually, these companies will rebound and reach their fair value when the market wakes up. 

Thank you for writing well-researched, informative, and easy-to-understand articles. I look forward to reading your 2013 picks! 

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#37) On December 14, 2012 at 6:17 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

#29) On December 06, 2012 at 9:36 AM, TMFSinchiruna (51.79) wrote:

 

"rfcapital,

I still own shares of Tyhee, though fewer than I once held. With no identifiable timeframe for upside catalysts, the stock must now be viewed as a particularly long-shot play that demands a lengthy time horizon. That said, gold's move above $2,000 may provide some relief."

 http://www.tyhee.com/

 

http://www.tyhee.com/news/01112012Tyheclosesprivateplacement.htm?CategoryID=11&Include=2&SortType=2&SortDirection=2

 

November 1, 2012                            Series 13  Release 20                            TSX Venture: TDC

TYHEE ANNOUNCES FINAL CLOSING OF NON-BROKERED UNIT PRIVATE PLACEMENT AND SENIOR UNSECURED NOTE FINANCING

VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Tyhee Gold Corp. (TSX Venture, TDC) (the “Company”) announces that it has closed a final tranche of its non-brokered private placement on terms and conditions previously announced September 4, 2012.  In this closing, the Company issued 2,500,000 common shares and 2,500,000 common share purchase warrants for aggregate proceeds of $225,000.  Each Warrant entitles the holder to purchase a further 2,500,000 Shares in the Company at a price of $0.125 per Share, exercisable until October 29, 2014.  All securities issued in this closing are subject to a 4-month hold period until March 1, 2013.

 

http://www.tyhee.com/news/15102012Bigskyfollowup.htm?CategoryID=11&Include=2&SortType=2&SortDirection=2

TYHEE NOTES FINAL RESULTS FROM 2012 BIG SKY GEOLOGICAL RECONNAISSANCE & SAMPLING PROGRAM CONDUCTED BY WILLIAMS CREEK 

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (October 15, 2012)

Tyhee Gold Corp. (TSX Venture, TDC) (“Tyhee” or the “Company”) is pleased to note the latest positive results from the geological reconnaissance and sampling program conducted by Williams Creek Gold Limited (TSX.V:WCX) (“Williams Creek”) on the Big Sky joint venture, Yellowknife, NT, Canada. Williams Creek is earning a 50% interest in the Big Sky Property from its Joint Venture partner, Tyhee Gold Corp. (Tyhee News Releases dated September 19 and March 29, 2012.)

**

http://www.tyhee.com/news/10102012PrivatePLACEMENT.htm?CategoryID=11&Include=2&SortType=2&SortDirection=2

TYHEE ANNOUNCES FURTHER CLOSING OF NON-BROKERED PRIVATE PLACEMENT

 VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Wednesday, October 10, 2012)

**

http://www.tyhee.com/news/02102012fileNI43101FS.htm?CategoryID=11&Include=2&SortType=2&SortDirection=2

10/1/12

TYHEE GOLD FILES REPORT ENTITLED “NI 43-101 TECHNICAL REPORT, YELLOWKNIFE GOLD PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA” ON SEDAR TYHEE GOLD FILES REPORT ENTITLED “NI 43-101 TECHNICAL REPORT, YELLOWKNIFE GOLD PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA” ON SEDAR

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Monday, October 1, 2012) – Tyhee Gold Corp. (TSX Venture, TDC) (“Tyhee” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that, further to its news release of August 15, 2012, it has filed a National Instrument 43-101 compliant report entitled “NI 43-101 Technical Report, Yellowknife Gold Project Feasibility Study, Northwest Territories, Canada” (the “Study”) prepared by SRK Consulting, Knight Piésold and Lyntek Inc. out of their Denver, Colorado offices

At a base-case gold price of $1,400 per ounce (“/oz.”) and a projected 4,000 tonnes-per-day (“tpd”) processing plant comprised of a conventional gravity-flotation-cyanide process and incorporating open-pit and underground mining methods on the Ormsby, Bruce Lake, Clan Lake and Nicholas Lake deposits, the Yellowknife Gold Project (“YGP”) is estimated to return a pre-tax net present value (“NPV”) at a 5% discount rate of approximately $216 million and an internal rate of return (“IRR”) of 20% based on initial estimated capital cost of $193 million (including a 10% contingency.)

At the current gold price of approximately $1,770 per oz., the YGP would have a pre-tax NPV of $511 million, an IRR of 34% and a payback period of 24 months.

Sky 

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi

Long Tyhee 

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#38) On December 14, 2012 at 11:40 AM, charliedawgg (< 20) wrote:

OK Sinch, got another quick one for ya...any thoughts on Aussie outfit, Mutiny Gold Ltd (MTYGF)? Thanxx as always, my friend.

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#39) On December 15, 2012 at 8:26 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

#26) On December 05, 2012 at 11:27 AM, TMFSinchiruna (58.69) wrote:

 

"Cardero's severe weakness is a reflection of how severe this met-coal softness has become in the near-term, exacerbated by the company's high-rate of cash burn and resulting overhang regarding subsequent financing needs. The boom cycle for met coal that formed the baseline for my initial outlook for the stock has been replaced by a more muted long-term bullish outlook flanked by this ongoing near-term malaise that sends investment capital fleeing the space.

I personally have not sold a single share, and have added to my position at multiple points during the decline. But the $4 and $5 price targets I used to have in mind must now be dialed back into the $2.50 to $4 range, IMO.

They've invested much effort and capital on Sheini Hills... much more than I thought they would. With any luck, they'll succeed in selling those assets following the pending release of an initial resource estimate there.

Senior management have been big buyers of the stock under $0.60 per share. Other companies within the Cardero group of companies have continued to execute very well, which alleviates the concern I might otherwise have over some of the decisions that have been made by Cardero along the way. By far the biggest shocker for me was their liquidation of those equity investments they had, and the rate at which the resulting funds were already spent."

I am holding my shares.

There is a "political" factor in the U. S., as well.

The President and most Democrats are against coal.  But, I hope they will be smart enough to encourage exports to devloping countries with increasing energy needs like             India and China. 

If not, we may have to wait for another administration to         realize the full potential of the company. 

Sky 

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