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ChrisGraley (29.92)

60 years and 0.5 deg C how and how data and public perception can be manipulated!

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December 16, 2009 – Comments (20)

Whether or not you believe in global warming, everyone can agree on the impact of the hockey stick chart shown here.

This is the chart that shows that big swing in temperature and points the finger directly at man.

We know that man has put much more Carbon into the atmospere in the last 60 years and this chart shows a response in global temperature.

So what would it mean if the chart was bogus? Basically it would destroy any credibility that the IPCC had because this is the only proof that they can offer to show a link between Carbon and warming.

So lets show how bogus that it is! The first thing that stands out is that is uses a cherry picked time frame. So I'll put a link for the entire Holcene period ~ 12,000 years here. That just shows that they took a few liberties with the time frame, it's not a smoking gun.

But here's a smoking gun! They removed some of the data! See whereamInow's post here!

Why did they remove it? Because Briffa used tree ring data and it disagreed with their own temperature measurments over the last 60 years. What did they use for data before they had temperature readings? The same tree ring data that Briffa used! So the data was fine to use as long as it agreed with their climate model. When asked about how the data could be considered accurate for the previous years, they responded that the tree ring data for the last 60 years must have been affected by man made forces and the previous data was without that man-made effect. They never said what those man made forces were. I was really hoping that they would have said that CO2 was bad for trees, but that never happened.

Ok so that's a smoking gun, but it is at least plausible. Can I find more proof that the it might be their own temperature readings that are flawed? How about the fact that satellite readings agree with Briffa and show a small decline in temperature over that time frame! Satellites measure the temperature of the globe as a whole by looking at it's radiation. They should in practice be more accurate than surface readings because we have a large part of the Earth's surface that don't have weather stations. (Including the 70% of the globe that is ocean.)

So the climate gurus are claiming that the satellites are also wrong, but NASA is confident in it's measurements. Read their response here. Not only does NASA defend their measurments, but the do postulate a few reasons why the IPCC's climate model may be flawed. Read the whole page if you can, it's worth it!

Ok, so how can the surface based readings possibly be wrong? Well, first there is a large part of the globe that simply doesn't have weather stations. The stations that they do have tend to be located in large, urban areas. This in itself disturbs the measurments. The Urban heat island effect makes the readings in the urban areas higher than in surrounding areas. Rather than find a flaw in their own data, the IPCC chooses to look elsewhere.

So the 2 trillion dollar question is...

Do you trust the hockey stick chart enough to go into debt for another government scheme?

 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 16, 2009 at 12:29 PM, Icheb (< 20) wrote:

Dude, I love you. Just wanted to tell you that. I don't know that many people who take "our" side.

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#2) On December 16, 2009 at 3:26 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
Didn't you previously agree that the fact of warming was beyond dispute?
"The fact that the world is getting warmer is supported by an array of evidence: multiple reconstructions of the global average temperature anomaly using thousands of weather stations from all the globe, measurements of ocean's heat content, satellite and radiosonde measurements of tropospheric temperatures, decreasing amounts of Arctic sea ice, retreat of the whole cryosphere, poleward movement of species, earlier onset of spring, etc." - lucas1985
"We seem to agree here." - ChrisGraley.

Do we have to deal with moving goalposts, a favorite tactic of denialists?

"what would it mean if the chart was bogus?"

It would mean nothing:
"Let us assume that medieval temperatures after all had been warmer than the present. Even that would tell us nothing about anthropogenic climate change. The famous conclusion of the IPCC, “The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate”, does not depend on any reconstruction for the past millennium. It depends on a detailed analysis of 20th Century data. In fact, this conclusion is from the 1995 IPCC report, and thus predates the existence of quantitative proxy reconstructions like the “hockey stick”.
Climate changes can have several different reasons, and the cause of any particular climate change needs to be investigated on a case by case basis. It cannot be found by looking at one temperature curve. Had medieval climate been warmer than the present, this would probably have been due to some natural cause – perhaps a peak in solar output. That would only tell us that in principle, natural causes can cause warming larger than what we’ve seen in the past decades. But we know that already – one need only go back far enough in time (e.g., fifty million years) to find examples of unquestionably warmer climates than today. However, it would be naive to conclude that the observed strong 20th Century warming therefore also must have a natural cause.
Investigating the cause of 20th Century warming is done in so-called detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g., solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic activity) and the observed time and space patterns of climate change in detail. These studies, with a range of different techniques, have invariably concluded that the dominant cause of 20th Century warming is man-made greenhouse gases.

In the spirit of this article, let’s assume these studies were also wrong, in addition to all of the above. Let’s assume these studies somehow greatly underestimated natural variability in the climate system, so that the “signal” of anthropogenic climate change has not yet emerged from the “noise” of natural variations (i.e., the above-cited “discernible human influence” had not been detected after all). Surely, then we wouldn’t need to worry about global warming, and the world could hold off with the Kyoto protocol?
Unfortunately, that also doesn’t follow. The only thing that would follow in that case is that our data are not yet good enough to prove that anthropogenic climate change is already happening. That would not be so surprising – the expected amount of anthropogenic global warming to date (based on the radiative effects of the greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by humans thus far) is only ~0.5 ºC. It is a small signal that is not easy to detect amongst the natural variability; most of the anthropogenic warming is still to come (the point of conducting science is to give an early warning, rather than just wait until the facts are obvious to everyone).
The main reason for concern about anthropogenic climate change is not that we can already see it (although we can). The main reason is twofold.
(1) Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are increasing rapidly in the atmosphere due to human activity. This is a measured fact not even disputed by staunch “climate skeptics”.
(2) Any increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will change the radiation balance of the Earth and increase surface temperatures. This is basic and undisputed physics that has been known for over a hundred years.
But how strong is this warming effect? That is the only fundamental doubt about anthropogenic climate change that can still be legitimately debated. We climatologists describe this in terms of the climate sensitivity, the warming that results in equilibrium from a doubling of CO2. The IPCC gives the uncertainty range as 1.5-4.5 ºC. Only if this is wrong, and the true value is lower, can we escape the fact that unabated emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to the warming projected by the IPCC.
"



"Why did they remove it? Because Briffa used tree ring data and it disagreed with their own temperature measurments over the last 60 years. What did they use for data before they had temperature readings? The same tree ring data that Briffa used!"
- Tree-rings aren't the only proxy used for climate reconstructions. Other proxies are glaciers, boreholes, lake sediments, corals, stalagmites, etc. All agree:




"So the data was fine to use as long as it agreed with their climate model."
The calibrated data was fine as long as it agreed with thermometers. To understand this, you need to take courses in dendrochronology. Being an armchair pseudoskeptic doesn't put you at the same level of a trained, published dendrochronologist.

"When asked about how the data could be considered accurate for the previous years, they responded that the tree ring data for the last 60 years must have been affected by man made forces and the previous data was without that man-made effect."
They say that anthropogenic influences may or may not be the cause of the divergence problem found in few tree-ring chronologies. Stop misrepresenting scientists.

"They never said what those man made forces were. I was really hoping that they would have said that CO2 was bad for trees, but that never happened."
They said what those man made forces could be: pollution, global dimming, temperature-induced drought stress, changes in the hydrological cycle, etc.

"Satellites measure the temperature of the globe as a whole by looking at it's radiation. They should in practice be more accurate than surface readings because we have a large part of the Earth's surface that don't have weather stations. (Including the 70% of the globe that is ocean.)
So the climate gurus are claiming that the satellites are also wrong, but NASA is confident in it's measurements. Read their response here. Not only does NASA defend their measurments, but the do postulate a few reasons why the IPCC's climate model may be flawed. Read the whole page if you can, it's worth it!"

Satellites agree with land-based thermometers


"Ok, so how can the surface based readings possibly be wrong? Well, first there is a large part of the globe that simply doesn't have weather stations. The stations that they do have tend to be located in large, urban areas. This in itself disturbs the measurments. The Urban heat island effect makes the readings in the urban areas higher than in surrounding areas."
False:
- HadCRU, GISSTemp, NCDC use statistical tools to remove biases (instrumental change, UHI, location change, etc) from temperature records.
- Using only rural stations gives you the same trend.
- The most significant warming is observed at high latitudes, hardly an inhabited place.



"So the 2 trillion dollar question is...
Do you trust the hockey stick chart enough to go into debt for another government scheme?"

So the civilization and biosphere wellness question is...
Do you trust armchair pseudoskeptics with no qualifications whatsoever who base their arguments on long debunked premises, don't hesitate to misrepresent other people's words and are prone to use logical fallacies or do you trust the robustness of the scientific process and the enormous body of knowledge produced by thousands of scientists from all the world in a century timespan?

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#3) On December 16, 2009 at 4:15 PM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

I do agree that we are warming.(Depending on the timeframe that you look at) I don't agree to the extent or that Carbon has anything to do with it. The fact that those hotter climates are dismissed because you're not looking for natural causes doesn't hold water. If you are only looking for 1 particular cause you will eventually find it.

You see the 12,000 year chart that I posted? there is no hockey stick in that chart. The reason why, is that we can't possibly have an effect yet and even if we got to the point where we could have an effect, carbon doubling is a logarithmic function and you have to continuously double the doubling to continuously have the same effect. If they exclude the missing Briffa data due to those factors why don't they exclude the entire length of tree ring data as many of those excuses that you provide could have happened in the last 1000 years as well.

Forcing is a favorite word of yours so why not answer this question. If the increased wator vapor due to forcing leads to increased cloud formation, wouldn't that increase cooling to offset the warming?

I'm not saying it would be an equal offset, but I'm not the one claiming we have a problem before I can prove it either. How can nature and climate changes over time be discarded so easily? Scientists are supposed to have an open mind and aren't supposed to myopically focus on a single source of causation.

Science is supposed to be about facts and not about tricks. The fact that scientists had to hide the Briffa data proves that they felt they had something to hide in the first place.

I'm not gonna invest in a company that has a CEO hiding things on the balance sheet and I'm not gonna trust a science that has it's promoters hiding facts.

 

 

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#4) On December 16, 2009 at 5:16 PM, devoish (98.06) wrote:

ChrisGrayley,

The data in question was not "hidden" though you attempt to manufacture a conspiracy. Briffa never hid the data, openly discussed it why it was removed, made it available to the world and Mcintyre who began reviewing it in 1999.

Water vapor did not increase first, CO2 and temperature did. Water vapor reacted to warmer temperatures and is increasing now and accelerating the warming. Or making things go from bad to worse.

Science is about facts not tricks, stop trying to trick us into thinking that Briffa his his data. He did not.

Lucas1985,

It is worthwhile that you keep posting. You are much clearer than I am.

If I had ten thermometers in the same pot of water, and they all agreed within 1-2 degrees as as the water warmed from 70f to 190f and then from 190f to 220f one thermometer stopped showing changes but the other nine showed matching increases, I would not decide the one overules the nine.

Especially if I had a huge pot of water and the one thermometer was a small forest in siberia

The timeline for these mini-blogstorms is always similar. An unverified accusation of malfeasance is made based on nothing, and it is instantly ‘telegraphed’ across the denial-o-sphere while being embellished along the way to apply to anything ‘hockey-stick’ shaped and any and all scientists, even those not even tangentially related. The usual suspects become hysterical with glee that finally the ‘hoax’ has been revealed and congratulations are handed out all round. After a while it is clear that no scientific edifice has collapsed and the search goes on for the ‘real’ problem which is no doubt just waiting to be found. Every so often the story pops up again because some columnist or blogger doesn’t want to, or care to, do their homework. Net effect on lay people? Confusion. Net effect on science? Zip.

But can it be true that all Hockey Sticks are made in Siberia? A RealClimate exclusive investigation follows:

And yes, RealClimate represents the real experts, the people who have done the studys, on the ground in their boots, in the hot and in the cold.

Here is one of the other thermostats, not from NASA, part of the plot to destroy the economy and far less trustworthy than any blogger...

ChrisGrayey, You are investing In a company that has a blogosphere hiding things from their readers, or at least you are not mentioning Steven Mcintyre's resume when you parade him as the one true expert and tell us he doesn't want to believe temperatures show warming regardless of whether or not glaciers dissappear.

Full disclosure:

Stephen McIntyre is the primary author of the blog Climate Audit, noted for its many articles skeptical of climate change. He is a prominent critic of scientific studies of temperature records of the past 1000 years that show increasing global temperatures. Stephen McIntyre has worked in mineral exploration for 30 years, much of that time as an officer or director of several public mineral exploration companies. "I've spent most of my life in business, mostly on the stock market side of mining exploration deals," he said in 2009.[1]

McIntyre is, according to the Wall Street Journal, a "semiretired Toronto minerals consultant" who has spent "two years and about $5,000 of his own money trying to double-check the influential graphic" known as the "hockey stick" that illustrates a reconstruction of average surface temperatures in the Northern hemisphere, created by University of Virginia climatologist Michael Mann. He does not have an advanced degree and has published two articles in the journal Energy and Environment, which has become a venue for skeptics and is not carried in the ISI listing of peer-reviewed journals.[3]

McIntyre was also exposed for having unreported ties to CGX Energy, Inc., an oil and gas exploration company, which listed McIntyre as a "strategic advisor." [4] He is the former President of Dumont Nickel Inc., and was President of Northwest Exploration Company Limited, the predecessor company to CGX Energy Inc. As of 2003, he was the strategic advisor of CGX Energy Inc. He has also been a policy analyst at both the governments of Ontario and of Canada.

I hope Skeptics who say warming alarmists are in it for the money also consider that resume.

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#5) On December 16, 2009 at 5:53 PM, wolfman225 (69.09) wrote:

I'm not any kind of an expert. Scientific, meteorological, or otherwise.  I do have to pose this:  If the Global Warming (excuse me, Climate Change) alarmists are so secure in their findings.  Why do they delete and/or refuse to allow access to the raw data (see the "Weathergate" emails) to allow for review by the many skeptics?  After all, one of the tenets of a valid scientific experiment is that the results are repeatable by others.  But, as the content of the emails makes blindingly clear, the data fed into the climate models was altered in order to produce the desired result and they have gone to great lengths to refuse FOIA requests by other, equaly credentialed scientists and researchers and have gone to great lengths to have them (and their views) discounted.

If the argument truly is "settled", they should be more than willing to provide the skeptics a chance to hang themselves with their own rope in full view of the world body.

"Consensus" isn't science.  It's political posturing by those with an ax to grind or an agenda to promote.  We need an open and HONEST debate (someone please remind Al Gore about his vow to debate anyone, anytime), with both sides being allowed to present their views w/out the lefties shouting them down, throwing things at them (check out the interview Neil Cavuto did with a reporter who is at Copenhagen), or having their papers blacklisted from the so-called "respected journals".

Don't forget, these are the same people who were ringing the deathknell of the planet due to a upcoming Ice Age when I was graduating high school in the late 70's.  At that time, there were "respected scientists" who were claiming that the ice sheets would cover Canada by the year 2000.

Hmmmm.  Maybe we did TOO good a job averting that disaster?

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#6) On December 16, 2009 at 6:07 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"The fact that those hotter climates are dismissed because you're not looking for natural causes doesn't hold water. If you are only looking for 1 particular cause you will eventually find it."
Tell me what's the relevance of the climate in the Archean.

"You see the 12,000 year chart that I posted?"

Yep. I've linked to it before.

"there is no hockey stick in that chart."
Nope, there's no hockey stick. The graph is constructed to show the stability of the climate in the Holocene. It also shows that we're approaching/surpassing the temperatures of the Climate Optimum, a regional event. The ironic thing is that currently natural forcings push in the cooling direction when at that time they pushed to warm the world. There must be a big forcing counteracting all the current natural cooling and still having an extra push to warm the world.

"carbon doubling is a logarithmic function and you have to continuously double the doubling to continuously have the same effect."
This is accepted knowledge.

"If they exclude the missing Briffa data due to those factors why don't they exclude the entire length of tree ring data as many of those excuses that you provide could have happened in the last 1000 years as well."
Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings? Yes.

"Forcing is a favorite word of yours so why not answer this question"
It's a technical word:
"In climate science, radiative forcing is loosely defined as the change in net irradiance at the atmospheric boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere (the tropopause). Net irradiance is the difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given climate system and is measured in Watts per square meter. The change is computed based on "unperturbed" values, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the measured difference relative to a base period. For radiative forcings for the industrial era, it is customary to take the year 1750 as the starting point. A positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy) tends to cool it. Possible sources of radiative forcing are changes in insolation (incident solar radiation), or the effects of variations in the amount of radiatively active gases and aerosols present."

"If the increased wator vapor due to forcing leads to increased cloud formation, wouldn't that increase cooling to offset the warming?"
Observe the variation in relative humidity in a clear, calm day. As the temperature rises, relative humidity falls. The same amount of water vapor (an approximation) results in lower humidity with higher temperatures. This simple observation is evidence that warm air is capable of holding more water vapor.


Cloud formation offsets the warming up to a point. If clouds completely offset warming (i.e. they act as a thermostat), explain the existence of climate change over the entire history of Earth.

"How can nature and climate changes over time be discarded so easily? Scientists are supposed to have an open mind and aren't supposed to myopically focus on a single source of causation."
Attribution of recent climate change
"Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for relatively recent changes observed in the Earth's climate. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly on the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the upper atmosphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms to which recent climate change has been attributed all result from human activity. They are:
    * increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
    * global changes to land surface, such as deforestation
    * increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.

Attribution of recent change to anthropogenic forcing is based on the following facts:
    * The observed change is not consistent with natural variability.
    * Known natural forcings would, if anything, be negative over this period.
    * Known anthropogenic forcings are consistent with the observed response.
    * The pattern of the observed change is consistent with the anthropogenic forcing.
"

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#7) On December 16, 2009 at 8:53 PM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

I didn't post Archean Lucas, I posted Holocene, but you could go back that far if you like.

Lets pick the ice core measurments for Holocene for demonstration.

That seems like a nice tidy little cycle. Our hockey stick doesn't vary from this cycle. That would mean that the last 60 years is not an anomoly in global climate history. So how can it be said that Carbon is currently having any effect on warming currently?

 Attribution of recent change to anthropogenic forcing is based on the following facts:
    * The observed change is not consistent with natural variability. ***Especially when you cherry pick the time frame


    * Known natural forcings would, if anything, be negative over this period.***Really? A hotter Sun over the last 60 years would  have a negative  effect?

   * Known anthropogenic forcings are consistent with the observed response. ***Especially when you contrive the data in a way to make them consistent and hide the rest.

   * The pattern of the observed change is consistent with the anthropogenic forcing." *** So they know the pattern? What point in history are they using for the pattern?

 Cloud formation offsets the warming up to a point. If clouds completely offset warming (i.e. they act as a thermostat), explain the existence of climate change over the entire history of Earth.

Your group doesn't seem too interested in climate change history. Just the last 60 years! But let's just pick a number. (Say 70%) Wouldn't that make the imagined problem less urgent? 

 It's amazing how people blindly follow this stuff!

 

 

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#8) On December 16, 2009 at 11:48 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"I didn't post Archean Lucas, I posted Holocene, but you could go back that far if you like."
What would be the relevance of the climate in the Archean when Earth was lifeless? The last million years are enough to make an assessment of the magnitude and speed of the current change.

"Lets pick the ice core measurments for Holocene for demonstration."
That's not the Holocene, that's the whole Quaternary (i.e. the Pleistocene + the Holocene). In any case, the ice cores are powerful evidence of the strong correlation between CO2 levels and temperature swings. They also show that we're about to enter uncharted territory, not for Earth but for civilization, mankind and a big chunk of the biosphere.



"Looking over past climate change, scientists have observed a cycle of ice ages separated by brief warm periods called interglacials. This pattern is due to Milankovitch cycles - gradual, regular changes in the earth's orbit and axis. While there are several different cycles, the dominant climate signal is the 100,000 year eccentricity cycle as the Earth's orbit changes from a more circular to a more elliptical orbit (Petit 1999, Shackleton 2000).
The eccentricity cycle causes changes in insolation (incoming sunlight). When springtime insolation increases in the southern hemisphere, this coincides with rising temperatures in the south, retreating Antarctic sea ice and melting glaciers in the southern hemisphere (Shemesh 2002). As temperature rises, CO2 also rises but lags the warming by 800 to 1000 years (Monnin 2001, Caillon 2003, Stott 2007).
How does warming cause a rise in atmospheric CO2? As the oceans warm, the solubility of CO2 in water falls (Martin 2005). This causes the oceans to give up more CO2, emitting it into the atmosphere. The exact mechanism of how the deep ocean gives up its CO2 is not fully understood but believed to be related to vertical ocean mixing (Toggweiler 1999).
When there's more CO2 in the atmosphere, the earth absorbs more heat. Shortwave radiation from the sun passes straight through our atmosphere and is absorbed by the earth. The earth reemits it as longwave (infrared) radiation which is partially absorbed by atmospheric CO2. This is the greenhouse effect. CO2 lets energy in, doesn't let as much get out.
CO2 warming explains how the relatively weak forcing from Milankovitch cycles can bring the planet out of an ice age. It begins with the high southern latitudes (eg - Antarctica) warming and releasing CO2 from the oceans. The CO2 mixes through the atmosphere, amplifying and spreading the warming to northern latitudes (Cuffey 2001). This is why warming in the southern hemisphere precedes warming in the northern hemisphere (Caillon 2003). This is confirmed by marine cores that show tropical temperatures lag southern warming by ~1000 years (Stott 2007).


"So how can it be said that Carbon is currently having any effect on warming currently?"
From the same source:
"Climate sensitivity is defined as how much global temperature increase if we doubled CO2. Studies of past CO2 and temperature records have helped quantify how sensitive our climate is to changes in CO2.
Temperature and various forcings (including CO2) over the past few centuries shows a climate sensitivity between 1.5 to 6.2°C (Hegerl 2006). One study combines the results from various paleontological studies to narrow climate sensitivity to around 2.5 to 3.5°C (Annan 2006). Basically, multiple studies covering many different periods of earth's history confirm that when CO2 is doubled, global temperatures go up around 3°C.
So what does the CO2 lag tell us? The behaviour of CO2 in the past confirms the amplifying effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. Sharp temperature rises in the past indicate how sensitive climate is to change. Our past history shows how our climate is prone to "tipping points" where warming can lead to positive feedbacks sparking a warming effect"


Evidence for man-made global warming:
"   * Our planet is suffering an energy imbalance and is steadily accumulating heat (Hansen 2005, Murphy 2009, Schuckmann 2009, Trenberth 2009)
    * Animal and plant species are responding to earlier springs. Eg - earlier frog breeding, bird nesting, earlier flowering, earlier migration of birds and butterflies (Parmeson 2003)
    * The distribution of tree lines, plants, birds, mammals, insects, fish, reptiles, marine invertebrates are shifting towards the poles (Parmeson 2003)
    * Arctic permafrost is degrading (Anisimov 2006) plus warming at greater depths in the permafrost (Stieglitz 2003)
    * Global sea level rise is accelerating (Church 2006)
    * Antarctic ice loss is accelerating (Velicogna 2009), even from East Antarctica which was previously thought to be too stable to lose ice mass (Chen 2009)
    * Greenland ice loss is accelerating (Velicogna 2009, van den Broeke et al 2009)
    * Glaciers are shrinking globally at an accelerating rate (WGMS 2008)
    * Arctic sea-ice loss is accelerating with the loss rate exceeding model forecasts by around a factor of 3 (Stroeve 2007).
    * The height of the tropopause is increasing (Santer 2003)
    * Jet streams are moving poleward (Archer 2008, Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
    * The tropical belt is widening (Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
    * There is an increasing trend in record hot days versus record cold temperatures with currently twice as many record hot days than record cold temperatures (Meehle 2009).
    * Humans are emitting CO2 at such rates that atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level over the past 800,000 years (Brook 2008). The rate of increase is the fastest in 22,000 years (Joos 2008)
    * Satellites measure less infrared radiation escaping out to space at the wavelengths that CO2 absorb energy (Harries 2001, Griggs 2004, Chen 2007)
    * Surface measurements find more infrared radiation returning back to the Earth's surface (Philipona 2004), specifically at the wavelengths that CO2 absorb energy (Evans 2006)
    * A shift towards earlier seasons (Stine 2009)
    * Lake and river ice cover throughout the Northern Hemisphere are freezing later and breaking up earlier (Magnuson 2000, Hodgkins 2005)
    * Changes to physical and biological systems across the globe are consistent with warming temperatures (Rosenzweig 2008)
    * Cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere consistent with predicted effects of increasing greenhouse gases (Lastovicka 2008)
    * Pitcher-plant mosquitoes are genetically evolving to adapt to shifting seasons (Bradshaw 2001)
    * Distribution of plants are shifting to higher elevations (Lenoir 2008)"


- The whole upper atmosphere is cooling, shrinking and falling.
"Laštovic(ka et al point out that cooling trends are exactly as predicted by increasing greenhouse gas trends, and that the increase in density that this implies is causing various ionspheric layers to ‘fall’. This was highlighted a few years back by Jarvis et al (1998)"
- CO2 levels are the highest in at least 15 million years.
"The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland
Carbon dioxide is a potent greenhouse gas, and geological observations that we now have for the last 20 million years lend strong support to the idea that carbon dioxide is an important agent for driving climate change throughout Earth's history"

- Look at the ice core figures and calculate how much time was needed to rise CO2 levels in 100 ppm which is the same rise we managed to do since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

"* The observed change is not consistent with natural variability. ***Especially when you cherry pick the time frame"
The time frame is not cherry-picked. The internal fluctuations of the climate system average out at about 30 years: the sunspot cycle lasts 11 years, changes in ocean circulation last a decade, the aerosols from volcanic eruptions are washed away in few years. Concluding: any long-term trend should be discernible in 50/60 years of observations and measurements.

"* Known natural forcings would, if anything, be negative over this period.***Really? A hotter Sun over the last 60 years would  have a negative  effect?"
The sun-climate relationship breaks down in the late 70s and it's too small to begin with.

    * Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming"
    * Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
    * Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
    * Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
    * Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century."
    * Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
    * Foukal 2006 concludes "The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years."
    * Scafetta 2006 says "since 1975 global warming has occurred much faster than could be reasonably expected from the sun alone."
    * Usoskin 2005 conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."
    * Solanki 2004 reconstructs 11,400 years of sunspot numbers using radiocarbon concentrations, finding "solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades".
    * Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects."
    * Stott 2003 increased climate model sensitivity to solar forcing and still found "most warming over the last 50 yr is likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases."
    * Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970".
    * Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970".
    * Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend."
    * Frolich 1998 concludes "solar radiative output trends contributed little of the 0.2°C increase in the global mean surface temperature in the past decade"


"Known anthropogenic forcings are consistent with the observed response. ***Especially when you contrive the data in a way to make them consistent and hide the rest."
The net anthropogenic forcing (GHG, albedo, aerosols) is dominated by GHGs so we expect fingerprints of an enhanced GH effect and that's what we find:
- Global event.
- Polar amplification.
- Stratospheric cooling.
- Fall of the ionosphere.
- Decrease in LW emissions at the CO2 absorption wavelengths.
- Increase in downward LW radiation at the CO2 absorption wavelengths.
- Rise of the tropopause.

"The pattern of the observed change is consistent with the anthropogenic forcing." *** So they know the pattern? What point in history are they using for the pattern?"
As I said before, climate scientists look for patterns of an increased greenhouse effect. They also measure other forcings (solar forcing, orbital cycles, volcanic activity, etc) and find them to be too small to have an effect or even pushing for cooling. The only big, sustained forcing left is anthropogenic GHG emissions.


"Your group doesn't seem too interested in climate change history. Just the last 60 years!"




"But let's just pick a number. (Say 70%) Wouldn't that make the imagined problem less urgent?"

70 % of what? Phasing out fossil fuels has other benefits.

"It's amazing how people blindly follow this stuff!"

Couldn't agree more. That's why I've taken my time to study the subject to the best of my knowledge (I have some education in Earth sciences and I understand most of the underlying physics and statistical techniques used). Also, I trust the scientific process to weed out bad data, weak hypothesis and flimsy arguments. The data and arguments of climate science have been picked apart numerous times in the last 150 years and they have stood the most rigorous examinations.

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#9) On December 17, 2009 at 8:44 AM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

OK, are we changing directions here? First you state that all known natural forcings would have a negative effect, but when I pick one like the sun, you then say well yeah it had a positive effect, but not a big one. Well the cumulative of all natural effects would add up. The sun alone would almost enough to knock a tenth of a degree off the already small 0.5 deg C. But that's ok, your group doesn't want to hear about it, so just dismiss it and use the "because I said so!" arguement over and over again. Natural forcings plus any margin of error would make the arguement that Carbon is having any effect rather weak.

I'm glad you posted the graph showing that it has been hotter before. You had a hard time admitting that a couple of posts ago.

The 1000 year timeframe was picked to avoid that very acknowledgement.

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#10) On December 18, 2009 at 12:04 AM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"First you state that all known natural forcings would have a negative effect"
All natural forcings = net natural forcing. A net cooling forcing from nature doesn't mean that every individual forcing is negative. Check the graph of radiative forcings and see their magnitudes and directions.

"when I pick one like the sun, you then say well yeah it had a positive effect, but not a big one."
The weight of evidence points to a small positive solar forcing but there's substantial evidence saying the opposite (negative solar forcing):
 * Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
 * Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
 * Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
 * Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970".
 * Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend."


"The sun alone would almost enough to knock a tenth of a degree off the already small 0.5 deg C."
The solar forcing is small, the warming in the 20th century is greater than 0.5 deg. C



"But that's ok, your group doesn't want to hear about it"

If "my group" doesn't want to hear about natural variability, why do they waste their time measuring solar output, monitoring volcanoes, checking ozone and doing attribution studies?

"use the "because I said so!" arguement over and over again."
Are you accusing me of relying on argument from authority?

"You had a hard time admitting that a couple of posts ago."
Provide evidence. I never dismissed the existence of natural climate change, the existence of warmer epochs in the distant past, the existence of uncertainty over some data, etc.

"The 1000 year timeframe was picked to avoid that very acknowledgement."
The 1000 year timeframe was picked to reflect:
- The abundance and accuracy of proxies.
- A macro-stable climate period relevant to mankind and civilization.
If you want paleoclimatic reconstructions of the deep past, they're available. The deep past provides the following evidence:
- The utmost importance of CO2.
- Empirical constraints to the magnitude of the climate sensitivity.

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#11) On December 18, 2009 at 1:50 AM, whereaminow (27.15) wrote:

450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of  AGW caused Global Warming

A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 1049-1058, December 2007)
- Craig Loehle

- Reply To: Comments on Loehle, “correction To: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies”
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 5, pp. 775-776, September 2008)
- Craig Loehle

A Climate of Doubt about Global Warming
(Environmental Geosciences, Volume 7 Issue 4, pp. 213, December 2000)
- Robert C. Balling Jr.

A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions (PDF)
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 28, Issue 13, pp. 1693-1701, December 2007)
- David H. Douglass, John R. Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer

A critical review of the hypothesis that climate change is caused by carbon dioxide
(Energy & Environment, Volume 11, Number 6, pp. 631-638, November 2000)
- Heinz Hug

A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 13, July 2007)
- Anastasios A. Tsonis, Kyle Swanson, Sergey Kravtsov

A scientific agenda for climate policy? (PDF)
(Nature, Volume 372, Issue 6505, pp. 400-402, December 1994)
- Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen

A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 26, Number 2, pp. 159-173, May 2004)
- Ross McKitrick, Patrick J. Michaels

- Are temperature trends affected by economic activity? Reply to Benestad (2004) (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 27, Number 2, pp. 175–176, October 2004)
- Ross McKitrick, Patrick J. Michaels

- A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data: Erratum (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 27, Number 3, pp. 265-268, December 2004)
- Ross McKitrick, Patrick J. Michaels

Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 13, July 2004)
- David H. Douglass, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer

* An Alternative Explanation for Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere (PDF)
(Submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research, February 2009)
- Philip J. Klotzbach, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Roger A. Pielke Jr., John R. Christy, Richard T. McNider

An assessment of validation experiments conducted on computer models of global climate using the general circulation model of the UK’s Hadley Centre
(Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 5, pp. 491-502, September 1999)
- Richard S. Courtney

Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 27-33, April 1998)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Robert C. Balling Jr, Russell S. Vose, Paul C. Knappenberger

Ancient atmosphere- Validity of ice records
(Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Volume 1, Number 3, September 1994)
- Zbigniew Jaworowski

Are Climate Model Projections Reliable Enough For Climate Policy?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 15, Number 3, pp. 521-525, July 2004)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous? (PDF)
(Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Volume 50, Number 2, pp. 297-327, June 2002)
- C. R. de Freitas

Are there connections between the Earth’s magnetic field and climate? (PDF)
(Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 253, Issues 3-4, pp. 328-339, January 2007)
- Vincent Courtillot, Yves Gallet, Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Frédéric Fluteau, Agnès Genevey

- Response to comment on “Are there connections between Earth’s magnetic field and climate?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 253, 328–339, 2007″ by Bard, E., and Delaygue, M., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., in press, 2007 (PDF)
(Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 265, Issues 1-2, pp. 308-311, January 2008)
- Vincent Courtillot, Yves Gallet, Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Frédéric Fluteau, Agnès Genevey

Atmospheric CO2 and global warming: a critical review (PDF)
(Norwegian Polar Institute Letters, Volume 119, May 1992)
- Zbigniew Jaworowski, Tom V. Segalstad, V. Hisdal

Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change? (PDF)
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 94, pp. 8335-8342, August 1997)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum warming
(Nature Geoscience, Volume 2, 576-580, July 2009)
- Richard E. Zeebe, James C. Zachos, Gerald R. Dickens

Climate as a Result of the Earth Heat Reflection (PDF)
(Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences, Volume 46, Number 2, pp. 29-40, May 2009)
- J. Barkāns, D. Žalostība

Climate Change – A Natural Hazard
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 215-232, May 2003)
- William Kininmonth

Climate Change and the Earth’s Magnetic Poles, A Possible Connection
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 75-83, January 2009)
- Adrian K. Kerton

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics
(AAPG Bulletin, Volume 88, Number 9, pp. 1211-1220, September 2004)
- Lee C. Gerhard

- Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics: Reply
(AAPG Bulletin, Volume 90, Number 3, pp. 409-412, March 2006)
- Lee C. Gerhard

Climate Change: Dangers of a Singular Approach and Consideration of a Sensible Strategy
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2 , pp. 201-205, January 2009)
- Tim F. Ball

Climate change: detection and attribution of trends from long-term geologic data
(Ecological Modelling, Volume 171, Issue 4, pp. 433-450, February 2004)
- Craig Loehle

Climate change in the Arctic and its empirical diagnostics
(Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 5, pp. 469-482, September 1999)
- V.V. Adamenko, K.Y. Kondratyev, C.A. Varotsos

Climate Change is Nothing New! (PDF)
(New Concepts In Global Tectonics, Number 42, March 2007)
- Lance Endersbee

Climate change projections lack reality check
(Weather, Volume 61, Issue 7, pp. 212, December 2006)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

Climate Change Re-examined (PDF)
(Journal of Scientific Exploration, Volume 21, Number 4, pp. 723–749, 2007)
- Joel M. Kauffman

Climate Chaotic Instability: Statistical Determination and Theoretical Background
(Environmetrics, Volume 8, Issue 5, pp. 517-532, December 1998)
- Raymond Sneyers

Climate Dynamics and Global Change
(Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, Volume 26, pg 353-378, January 1994)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Climate outlook to 2030 (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 5, pp. 615-619, September 2007)
- David C. Archibald

Climate Prediction as an Initial Value Problem (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 79, Number 12, pp. 2743-2746, December 1998)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr.

Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill? (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 13, July 2009)
- Catherine Reifen, Ralf Toumi

Climate science and the phlogiston theory: weighing the evidence (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 3-4, pp. 441-447, July 2007)
- Arthur Rörsch

Climate stability: an inconvenient proof
(Civil Engineering, Volume 160, Issue 2, pp. 66-72, May 2007)
- David Bellamy, Jack Barrett

Climate Variations and the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
(Ambio, Volume 27, Number 4, pp. 270-274, June 1998)
- Wibjörn Karlén

CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate: Comment (PDF)
(GSA Today, Volume 14, Issue 7, pp. 18–18, July 2004)
- Nir Shaviv, Jan Veizer

CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 69–82, April 1998)
- Sherwood B. Idso

Cooling of Atmosphere Due to CO2 Emission
(Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, Volume 30, Issue 1, pp. 1-9, January 2008)
- G. V. Chilingar, L. F. Khilyuk, O. G. Sorokhtin

Comment on “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” (PDF)
(Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 90, Number 27, July 2009)
- Roland Granqvist

Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 19, Issue 17, pp. 4276–4293, September 2006)
- H. J. Fowler, D. R. Archer

Cooling of the Global Ocean Since 2003
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 101-104, January 2009)
- Craig Loehle

Dangerous global warming remains unproven
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 1, pp. 167-169, January 2007)
- Robert M. Carter

Differential trends in tropical sea surface and atmospheric temperatures since 1979
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Number 1, pp. 183–186, January 2001)
- John R. Christy, D.E. Parker, S.J. Brown, I. Macadam, M. Stendel, W.B. Norris

Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 13, July 2004)
- David H. Douglass, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels

Do deep ocean temperature records verify models? (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 8, pp. 95-1, April 2002)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Do Facts Matter Anymore?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 323-326, May 2003)
- Patrick J. Michaels

Do glaciers tell a true atmospheric CO2 story? (PDF)
(Science of the Total Environment, Volume 114, pp. 227-284, August 1992)
- Zbigniew Jaworowski, Tom V. Segalstad, N. Ono

Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change assessment (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 88, Number 6, pp. 913-928, June 2007)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.

Does a Global Temperature Exist? (PDF)
(Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics, Volume 32, Issue 1, pp. 1–27, February 2007)
- Christopher Essex, Ross McKitrick, Bjarne Andresen

Does CO2 really drive global warming?
(Chemical Innovation, Volume 31, Number 5, pp 44-46, May 2001)
- Robert H. Essenhigh

Earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration: Impacts on the biosphere
(Energy & Environment, Volume 12, Number 4, pp. 287-310, July 2001)
- Craig D. Idso

Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (PDF)
(Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Volume 12, Number 3, pp. 79-90, Fall 2007)
- Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson, Willie H. Soon

Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 13, Number 2, pp. 149–164, October 1999)
- Arthur B. Robinson, Zachary W. Robinson, Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas

Estimation and representation of long-term (>40 year) trends of Northern-Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: A note of caution (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Number 3, February 2004)
- Willie H. Soon, David R. Legates, Sallie L. Baliunas

Evidence Delimiting Past Global Climate Changes
(Environmental Geosciences, Volume 6, Issue 3, pp. 151, September 1999)
- John P. Bluemle, Joseph M. Sabel, Wibjörn Karlén

Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon
(Nature, Volume 408, Issue 6813, pp. 698-701, December 2000)
- Ján Veizer, Yves Godderis, Louis M. François

Evidence for “publication Bias” Concerning Global Warming in Science and Nature
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 2, pp. 287-301, March 2008)
- Patrick J. Michaels

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics (PDF)
(International Journal of Modern Physics B, Volume 23, Issue 03, pp. 275-364, January 2009)
- Gerhard Gerlich, Ralf D. Tscheuschner

Global Climate Models Violate Scaling of the Observed Atmospheric Variability (PDF)
(Physical Review Letters, Volume 89, Number 2, July 2002)
- R. B. Govindan, Dmitry Vyushin, Armin Bunde, Stephen Brenner, Shlomo Havlin, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber

Global Warming (PDF)
(Progress in Physical Geography, Volume 27, Number 3, pp. 448-455, September 2003)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat? (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 73, Issue 10, pp. 1563–1577, October 1992)
- Patrick J. Michaels, David E. Stooksbury

Global warming and long-term climatic changes: a progress report
(Environmental Geology, Volume 46, Numbers 6-7, pp. 970-979, October 2004)
- L. F. Khilyuk, G. V. Chilingar

Global Warming and the Accumulation of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, pp. 101-126, January 2005)
- Arthur Rörsch, Richard S. Courtney, Dick Thoenes

Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate
(Topics in Catalysis, Volume 32, Numbers 3-4, pp. 95-99, March 2005)
- Chung-Chieng Lai, David Dietrich, Malcolm Bowman

Global Warming: Correcting the Data (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 31, Number 3, pp.46-52, 2008)
- Patrick J. Michaels

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 997-1021, December 2007)
- Keston C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

Global Warming: Is Sanity Returning?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 5, pp. 721-731, September 2009)
- Nigel Lawson

Global Warming: Myth or Reality? The Actual Evolution of the Weather Dynamics
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 297-322, May 2003)
- Marcel Leroux

Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 15, Number 2, pp. 87-98, 1992)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres (PDF)
(Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, Volume 111, Number 1, pp. 1-40, 2007)
- Ferenc M. Miskolczi

Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect
(Environmental Geology, Volume 58, Issue 6, pp.1207-1213, September 2009)
- G. V. Chilingar, O. G. Sorokhtin, L. Khilyuk, M. V. Gorfunkel

Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 6, pp. 1037-1045, November 2005)
- Jack Barrett

How Dry is the Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for Global Warming Theory (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 78, Issue 6, pp. 1097–1106, June 1997)
- Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell

Human effect on global climate?
(Nature, Volume 384, Issue 6609, pp. 522-523, December 1996)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger

Human Contribution to Climate Change Remains Questionable
(Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 80, Issue 16, pp. 183-183, April 1999)
- S. Fred Singer

Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate (PDF)
(Nature, Volume 423, Number 6939, pp. 528-531, May 2003)
- Eugenia Kalnay, Ming Cai

Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Forcing in Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future (PDF)
(Physical Geography, Volume 28, Number 2, pp. 97-125, March 2007)
- Willie H. Soon

In defense of Milankovitch (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Number 24, December 2006)
- Gerard Roe

Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 5, March 2004)
- A. T. J. de Laat, A. N. Maurellis

Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 114, Issue D14, July 2009)
- John D. McLean, Chris de Freitas, Robert M. Carter

Irreproducible Results in Thompson et al., “Abrupt Tropical Climate Change: Past and Present” (PNAS 2006)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 3, pp. 367-373, July 2009)
- J. Huston McCulloch

Is the enhancement of global warming important?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 12, Number 4, pp. 335-341, July 2001)
- M.C.R. Symons, Jack Barrett

Key Aspects of Global Climate Change
(Energy & Environment, Volume 15, Number 3, pp. 469-503, July 2004)
- Ya. K. Kondratyev

Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 177-189, January 2009)
- David H. Douglass, John R. Christy

Methodology and Results of Calculating Central California Surface Temperature Trends: Evidence of Human-Induced Climate Change?
(Journal of Climate, Volume 19, Issue 4, February 2006)
- John R. Christy, W.B. Norris, K. Redmond, K. Gallo

Microclimate Exposures of Surface-Based Weather Stations: Implications For The Assessment of Long-Term Temperature Trends (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 86, Issue 4, April 2005)
- Christopher A. Davey, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 18, Number 3, pp. 259–275, November 2001)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Eric S. Posmentier

- Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties. Reply to Risbey (2002) (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 22, Number 2, pp. 187–188, September 2002)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Eric S. Posmentier

- Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties. Reply to Karoly et al. (2003) (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 24, Number 1, pp. 93–94, June 2003)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Eric S. Posmentier

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years
(Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Volume 95, January 2007)
- Lin Zhen-Shan, Sun Xian

Nature of observed temperature changes across the United States during the 20th century (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 17, Number 1, pp. 45–53, July 2001)
- Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Robert E. Davis

Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Number 18, pp. 2905–2908, September 2000)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 327-350, May 2003)
- Landscheidt T.

Observed warming in cold anticyclones (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 14, Number 1, pp. 1–6, January 2000)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Robert C. Balling Jr, Robert E. Davis

Ocean heat content and Earth’s radiation imbalance
(Physics Letters A, Volume 373, Issue 36, pp. 3296-3300, August 2009)
- David H. Douglassa, Robert S. Knox

Oceanic influences on recent continental warming (PDF)
(Climate Dynamics, Volume 32, Numbers 2-3, pp. 333-342, February 2009)
- G.P. Compo, P.D. Sardeshmukh

On a possibility of estimating the feedback sign of the Earth climate system (PDF)
(Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences: Engineering, Volume 13, Number 3, pp. 260-268, September 2007)
- Olavi Kamer

On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved? (PDF)
(Environmental Geology, Volume 50, Number 6, August 2006)
- L. F. Khilyuk, G. V. Chilingar

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 107, Issue D20, October 2002)
- Olavi Kamer

On the credibility of climate predictions (PDF)
(Hydrological Sciences Journal, Volume 53, Number 4, pp. 671-684, August 2008)
- D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides

On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 16, August 2009)
- Richard S. Lindzen, Yong-Sang Choi

On the sensitivity of the atmosphere to the doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration and on water vapour feedback
(Energy & Environment, Volume 17, Number 4, pp. 603-607, July 2006)
- Jack Barrett, David Bellamy, Heinz Hug

Overlooked scientific issues in assessing hypothesized greenhouse gas warming (PDF)
(Environmental Software, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 100-107, 1991)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr.

Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 21, Issue 21, November 2008)
- Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell

Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems (PDF)
(Technology, Volume 7S, pp. 189-213, 2000)
- Indur M. Goklany

Potential Dependence of Global Warming on the Residence Time (RT) in the Atmosphere of Anthropogenically Sourced Carbon Dioxide
(Energy Fuels, Volume 23, Number 5, pp 2773–2784, April 2009)
- Robert H. Essenhigh

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: an example from eastern Colorado, USA (PDF)
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 22, Issue 4, pp. 421-434, April 2002)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.

- Response to W. Aeschbach-Hertig rebuttal of “On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?” by L. F. Khilyuk and G. V. Chilingar
(Environmental Geology, Volume 54, Number 7, June 2008)
- L. F. Khilyuk, G. V. Chilingar

Phanerozoic Climatic Zones and Paleogeography with a Consideration of Atmospheric CO2 Levels
(Paleontological Journal, Volume 2, pp. 3-11, February 2003)
- A. J. Boucot, Chen Xu, C. R. Scotese

Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 23, Number 2, pp. 89–110, January 2003)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas

Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 112, Issue D24, December 2007)
- Ross R. McKitrick, Patrick J. Michaels

Rate and Magnitude of Past Global Climate Changes (PDF)
(Environmental Geosciences, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 63-75, June 1999)
- John P. Bluemle, Joseph M. Sabel, Wibjörn Karlén

Rate of Increasing Concentrations of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Controlled by Natural Temperature Variations (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 7, pp. 995-1011, December 2008)
- Fred Goldberg

Recent Changes in the Climate: Natural or Forced by Human Activity
(Ambio, Volume 37, Number sp14, pp. 483–488, November 2008)
- Wibjörn Karlén

Recent climate observations disagreement with projections (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 4, pp. 595-596, August 2009)
- David R. B. Stockwell

Recent Global Warming: An Artifact of a Too-Short Temperature Record? (PDF)
(Ambio, Volume 34, Number 3, pp. 263–264, May 2005)
- Wibjörn Karlén

Review and impacts of climate change uncertainties
(Futures, Volume 25, Number 8, pp. 850-863, 1993)
- M.E. Fernau, W.J. Makofske, D.W. South

Revised 21st century temperature projections (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 23, Number 1, pp. 1–9, 2002)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Robert E. Davis

Science, Equity, and the War against Carbon
(Science, Technology & Human Values, Volume 28, Number 1, pp. 69-92, 2003)
- Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen

Scientific Consensus on Climate Change? (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 2, pp. 281-286, March 2008)
- Klaus-Martin Schulte

Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models (PDF)
(Social Studies of Science, Volume 35, Number 6, pp. 895-922, December 2005)
- Myanna Lahsen

Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 71, Issue 3, pp. 288–299, March 1990)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Some examples of negative feedback in the Earth climate system (PDF)
(Central European Journal of Physics, Volume 3, Number 2, June 2005)
- Olavi Kärner

Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2 , pp. 105-121, January 2009)
- Tom Quirk

Statistical analysis does not support a human influence on climate
(Energy & Environment, Volume 13, Number 3, pp. 329-331, July 2002)
- S. Fred Singer

Surface Temperature Variations in East Africa and Possible Causes
(Journal of Climate, Volume 22, Issue 12, pp. 3342–335, June 2009)
- John R. Christy, William B. Norris, Richard T. McNider

Taking GreenHouse Warming Seriously (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 937-950, December 2007)
- Richard S. Lindzen

Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere
(Energy & Environment, Volume 17, Number 5, pp. 707-714, September 2006)
- Vincent Gray

Temporal Variability in Local Air Temperature Series Shows Negative Feedback (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 1059-1072, December 2007)
- Olavi Kärner

Test for harmful collinearity among predictor variables used in modeling global temperature (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 24, Number 1, pp. 15-18, June 2003)
- David H. Douglass, B. David Clader, John R. Christy, Patrick J. Michaels, David A. Belsley

The carbon dioxide thermometer and the cause of global warming
(Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 1-18, January 1999)
- N. Calder

The cause of global warming (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 11, Number 6, pp. 613-629, November 2000)
- Vincent Gray

The continuing search for an anthropogenic climate change signal: Limitations of correlation-based approaches
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 24, Number 18, pp. 2319–2322, 1997)
- David R. Legates, Robert E. Davis

The Double Standard in Environmental Science (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 30, Number 2, pp.16-22, 2007)
- Stanley W. Trimble

The Fraud Allegation Against Some Climatic Research of Wei-Chyung Wang (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 985-995, December 2007)
- Douglas J. Keenan

The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science (PDF)
(Pure and Applied Geophysics, Volume 162, Issue 8-9, pp. 1557-1586, August 2005)
Madhav L. Khandekar, TS Murty, P Chittibabu

The greenhouse effect and global change: review and reappraisal
(International Journal of Environmental Studies, Volume 36, Numbers 1-2, pp. 55-71, July 1990)
- Patrick J. Michaels

The “Greenhouse Effect” as a Function of Atmospheric Mass
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 351-356, May 2003)
- Hans Jelbring

The Interaction of Climate Change and the Carbon Dioxide Cycle
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 2, pp. 217-238, March 2005)
- Arthur Rörsch, Richard S. Courtney, Dick Thoenes

The Letter Science Magazine Rejected
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Numbers 3-4, pp. 685-688, July 2005)
- Benny Peiser

The roles of carbon dioxide and water vapour in warming and cooling the earth’s troposphere
(Spectrochimica Acta Part A: Molecular and Biomolecular Spectroscopy, Volume 51, Issue 3, Pages 415-417, March 1995)
- Jack Barrett

The value of climate forecasting
(Surveys in Geophysics, Volume 7, Number 3, June 1985)
- Garth W. Paltridge

The Way of Warming (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 23, Number 3, 2000)
- Patrick J. Michaels

“The Wernerian syndrome”; aspects of global climate change; an analysis of assumptions, data, and conclusions
(Environmental Geosciences, Volume 3, Number 4, pp. 204-210, December 1996)
- Lee C. Gerhard

Trend Analysis of RSS and UAH MSU Global Temperature Data (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 7, pp. 1087-1098, October 2009)
- Craig Loehle

Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data (PDF)
(Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 98, Numbers 3-4, pp. 351-359, February 2009)
- Garth Paltridge, Albert Arking, Michael Pook

Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 112, Issue D6, March 2007)
- John R. Christy, William B. Norris, Roy W. Spencer, Justin J. Hnilo

Uncertainties in assessing global warming during the 20th century: disagreement between key data sources
(Energy & Environment, Volume 17, Number 5, pp. 685-706, September 2006)
- Maxim Ogurtsov, Markus Lindholm

Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 112, Issue D24, December 2007)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.

- Reply to comment by David E. Parker et al. on “Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends” (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 114, Issue D5, March 2009)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.

Useless Arithmetic: Ten Points to Ponder When Using Mathematical Models in Environmental Decision Making (PDF)
(Public Administration Review, Volume 68, Issue 3, pp. 470-479, March 2008)
- Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, Orrin H. Pilkey

Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making (PDF)
(International Journal of Forecasting, doi:10.1016, May 2009)
- Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon

What may we conclude about global tropospheric temperature trends?
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 6, March 2004)
- John R. Christy, William B. Norris

When Was The Hottest Summer? A State Climatologist Struggles for an Answer
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 83, Issue 5, pp. 723-734, May 2002)
- John R. Christy


An Inconvenient Truth:

An Inconvenient Truth : a focus on its portrayal of the hydrologic cycle
(GeoJournal, Volume 70, Number 1, pp. 15-19, September 2007)
- David R. Legates

An Inconvenient Truth : blurring the lines between science and science fiction
(GeoJournal, Volume 70, Number 1, pp. 11-14, September 2007)
- Roy W. Spencer

Antarctica:

A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 1, January 2008)
- Elizabeth R. Thomas, Gareth J. Marshall, Joseph R. McConnell

Active volcanism beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet and implications for ice-sheet stability
(Nature, Volume 361, Number 6412, p. 526-529, February 1993)
- Donald D. Blankenship et al.

An updated Antarctic melt record through 2009 and its linkages to high-latitude and tropical climate variability
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 18, September 2009)
- Marco Tedesco, Andrew J. Monaghan

Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response
(Nature, Volume 415, Number 6871, pp. 517-520, January 2002)
- Peter T. Doran et al.

First survey of Antarctic sub–ice shelf sediments reveals mid-Holocene ice shelf retreat
(Geology, Volume 29, Number 9, pp. 787-790, September 2001)
- Carol J. Pudsey, Jeffrey Evans

Orbitally induced oscillations in the East Antarctic ice sheet at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary
(Nature, Volume 413, Number 6857, pp. 719-723 , October 2001)
- Tim R. Naish et al.

Past and Future Grounding-Line Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(Science, Volume 286. Number 5438, pp. 280-283, October 1999)
- H. Conway, B. L. Hall, G. H. Denton, A. M. Gades, E. D. Waddington

Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
(Science, Volume 308, Number 5730, pp. 1898-1901, June 2005)
- Curt H. Davis, Yonghong Li, Joseph R. McConnell, Markus M. Frey, Edward Hanna

Arctic:

Actual and insolation-weighted Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice between 1973–2002
(Climate Dynamics, Volume 22, Issue 6-7, pp. 591-595, June 2004)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr., G. Liston, W. Chapman, D. Robinson

Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic Explorers’ Logs Reflect Present Climate Conditions
(Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 84, Issue 40, pp. 410-412, 2003)
- James E. Overland, Kevin Wood

Arctic sea ice thickness remained constant during the 1990s
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Issue 6, pp. 1039-1042, March 2001)
- P. Winsor

Has Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Thinned? (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 15, Issue 13, pp.1691-1701, July 2002)
- Greg Holloway,Tessa Sou

Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 111, Issue C1, January 2006)
- Dmitry V. Divine, Chad Dick

Holocene fluctuations in Arctic sea-ice cover: dinocyst-based reconstructions for the eastern Chukchi Sea
(Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, Volume 45, Number 11, pp. 1377-1397, November 2008)
- J.L. McKay et al.

Sea-ice decline due to more than warming alone
(Nature, Volume 450, Issue 7166, pp. 27, November 2007)
- Julia Slingo, Rowan Sutton

Solar Arctic-Mediated Climate Variation on Multidecadal to Centennial Timescales: Empirical Evidence, Mechanistic Explanation, and Testable Consequences (PDF)
(Physical Geography, Volume 30, Number 2, March-April 2009)
- Willie H. Soon

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 16, August 2005)
- Willie H. Soon

Variations in the age of Arctic sea-ice and summer sea-ice extent
(Geophyscial Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 9, May 2004)
- Ignatius G. Rigor, John M. Wallace

Clouds:

Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 15, August 2007)
- Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell, John R. Christy, Justin Hnilo

Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris? (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 82, Issue 3, pp. 417-432, March 2001)
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, Arthur Y. Hou

- Comment on “No Evidence for Iris” (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 83, Issue 9, pp. 1345–1349, September 2002)
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, Arthur Y. Hou

- Reply to: “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?” (PDF)
(Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp. 99-101, May 2002)
- Ming-Dah Chou, Richard S. Lindzen, Arthur Y. Hou

- Comments on “The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?” (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 15, Issue 18, September 2002)
- Ming-Dah Chou, Richard S. Lindzen, Arthur Y. Hou

- Reply to Comment on “Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?” (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 83, Issue 4, pp. 598-600, April, 2002)
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, Arthur Y. Hou

Radiative effect of cirrus with different optical properties over the tropics in MODIS and CERES observations (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 21, November 2006)
- Yong-Sang Choi, Chang-Hoi Ho

Validation of the cloud property retrievals from the MTSAT-1R imagery using MODIS observations (PDF)
(International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2009)
- Yong-Sang Choi, Chang-Hoi Ho


CO2 lags Temperature changes:

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition
(Science, Volume 324, Number 5934, pp. 1551-1554, June 2009)
- Bärbel Hönisch, N. Gary Hemming, David Archer, Mark Siddall, Jerry F. McManus

“The lack of a gradual decrease in interglacial PCO2 does not support the suggestion that a long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 was the main cause of the climate transition.”

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Issue 5, March 2000)
- Andreas Inderm¨uhle, Eric Monnin, Bernhard Stauer, Thomas F. Stocker

“The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a lag of (1200 ± 700) yr.”

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination
(Science, Volume 291. Number 5501, January 2001)
- Eric Monnin, Andreas Indermühle, André Dällenbach, Jacqueline Flückiger, Bernhard Stauffer, Thomas F. Stocker, Dominique Raynaud, Jean-Marc Barnola

“The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years.”

Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations
(Science, Volume 283, Number 5408, pp. 1712-1714, March 1999)
- Hubertus Fischer, Martin Wahlen, Jesse Smith, Derek Mastroianni, Bruce Deck

“High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations.”

Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming
(Science, Volume 318, Issue 5849, September 2007)
- Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, Robert Thunell

“Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.”

The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka (PDF)
(Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 20, Issue 4, pp. 583-589, February 2001)
- Manfred Mudelsee

“Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3±1.0 ka”

Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III
(Science, Volume 299, Number 5613, March 2003)
- Nicolas Caillon, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Jean Jouzel, Jean-Marc Barnola, Jiancheng Kang, Volodya Y. Lipenkov

“The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”


Coral Reefs:

A critique of a method to determine long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 6, pp. 783-796, November 2007)
- Peter V. Ridd

Bikini Atoll coral biodiversity resilience five decades after nuclear testing (PDF)
(Marine Pollution Bulletin, Volume 56, Issue 3, pp. 503-515, March 2008)
- Zoe T. Richardsa, Maria Begerd, Silvia Pincae, Carden C. Wallace

Coral reef calcification and climate change: The effect of ocean warming (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Number 22, November 2004)
- Ben I. McNeil, Richard J. Matear, David J. Barnes

Reef corals bleach to survive change
(Nature, Volume 411, Issue 6839, pp. 765-766, June 2001)
- Andrew C. Baker


Deaths:


Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States (PDF)
(Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 111, Number 14, pp. 1712-1718, November 2003)
- Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Wendy M. Novicoff

Cold—an underrated risk factor for health
(Environmental Research, Volume 92, Issue 1, pp. 8-13, May 2003)
- James B. Mercer

Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 22, Number 2, pp. 175-184. September 2002)
- Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Wendy M. Novicoff, Patrick J. Michaels

Global Health Threats: Global Warming in Perspective (PDF)
(Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Volume 14, Number 3, pp. 69-75, 2009)
- Indur M. Goklany

Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study
(British Medical Journal, Volume 321, Number 7262, pp. 670-673, September 2000)
- W. R. Keatinge et al.

Seasonality of climate–human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 26, Number 1, pp. 61-76, April 2004)
- Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels,
Wendy M. Novicoff

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming
(International Journal of Biometeorology, Volume 51, Number 2, November 2006)
- Mohamed Laaidi, Karine Laaidi, Jean-Pierre Besancenot

U.S. Trends in Crude Death Rates Due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-97
(Technology, Volume 7S, pp. 165-173, 2000)
- Indur M. Goklany, Sorin R. Straja

Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 23, December 2006)
- Thomas N. Chase, Klaus Wolter, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Ichtiaque Rasool

Floods:

Claim of Largest Flood on Record Proves False
(Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 84, Number 12, pp. 109-109, 2003)
- N. A. Sheffer et al.

Floods, droughts and climate change
(South African Journal of Science, Volume 91, Number 8, pp. 403-408, August 1995)
- W.J.R. Alexander

Human Factors Explain the Increased Losses from Weather and Climate Extremes (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 81, Issue 3, pp.437-442, March 2000)
- Stanley A. Changnon, Roger A. Pielke Jr., David Changnon, Richard T. Sylves, Roger Pulwarty

Nine Fallacies of Floods (PDF)
(Climatic Change, Volume 42, Number 2, June 1999)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr.

No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe
(Nature, Volume 425, Issue 6954, pp. 166-169, September 2003)
- Manfred Mudelsee, Michael Börngen, Gerd Tetzlaff, Uwe Grünewald

Palaeoclimatic and archaeological evidence for a 200-yr recurrence of floods and droughts linking California, Mesoamerica and South America over the past 2000 years
(Holocene, Volume 13, Number 5, pp. 763-778, 2003)
- Amdt Schimmelmann, Carina B. Lange, Betty J. Meggers

Glaciers:

Kilimanjaro Glaciers: Recent areal extent from satellite data and new interpretation of observed 20th century retreat rates (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 16, August 2006)
- Nicolas J. Cullen et al.

Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Fact (PDF)
(International journal of climatology, Volume 24, Number 3, pp. 329-339, March 2004)
- Georg Kaser et al.

Recent glacier advances in Norway and New Zealand: A comparison of their glaciological and meteorological causes
(Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, Volume 87, Issue 1, pp. 141-157, March 2005)
- T. Chinn et al.

The Shrinking Glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can Global Warming Be Blamed?
(American Scientist, Volume 95, Number 4, pp. 318-325, July 2007)
- PW Mote, G Kaser

Very high-elevation Mont Blanc glaciated areas not affected by the 20th century climate change
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 112, Issue D9, May 2007)
- C. Vincent, E. Le Meur, D. Six, M. Funk, M. Hoelzle, S. Preunkert

Greenland:

Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet (PDF)
(Climatic Change, Volume 63, Numbers 1-2, pp. 201-221, March 2004)
- Petr Chylek, Jason E. Box, Glen Lesins

Greenland warming of 1920–1930 and 1995–2005
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 11, June 2006)
- Petr Chylek, M. K. Dubey, G. Lesins

Rapid Changes in Ice Discharge from Greenland Outlet Glaciers
(Science, Volume 315, Number 5818, pp. 1559-1561, March 2007)
- Ian M. Howat, Ian Joughin, Ted A. Scambos

Recent cooling in coastal southern Greenland and relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 3, pp. 32-1, February 2003)
- Edward Hanna, John Cappelen

Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland
(Science, Volume 310, Number 5750, pp. 1013-1016, November 2005)
- Ola M. Johannessen, Kirill Khvorostovsky, Martin W. Miles, Leonid P. Bobylev

Gulf Stream:

Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns
(Nature, Volume 428, Issue 6983, April 2004)
- Carl Wunsch

Hockey Stick: (MBH98)

Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Number 6, pp. 751-771, November 2003)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, pp. 69-100, January 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 3, February 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

“Their method, when tested on persistent red noise, nearly always produces a hockey stick shape”

- Reply to comment by Huybers on “Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance” (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, October 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

- Reply to comment by von Storch and Zorita on “Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance” (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, October 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data (PDF)
(Nature, Volume 433, Issue 7026, pp. 613-617, February 2005)
- Anders Moberg, Dmitry M. Sonechkin, Karin Holmgren, Nina M. Datsenko and Wibjörn Karlén

Comment on “The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years”
(Science, Volume 316, Number 5833, pp. 1844, June 2007)
- Gerd Bürger

Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process: The “Hockey-Stick” Affair and Its Implications
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 951-983, December 2007)
- David Holland

A mathematical analysis of the divergence problem in dendroclimatology (PDF)
(Climatic Change, Volume 94, Numbers 3-4, pp. 233-245, June 2008)
- C. Loehle

Proxy inconsistency and other problems in millennial paleoclimate reconstructions (PDF)
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 106, Number 6, February 2009)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick

Hurricanes:

Are there trends in hurricane destruction? (PDF)
(Nature, Volume 438, Number 7071, pp. E11, December 2005)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr.

Can We Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones? (PDF)
(Science, Volume 313, Number 5786, pp. 452-454, July 2006)
- Christopher W. Landsea, Bruce A. Harper, Karl Hoarau, John A. Knaff

Causes of the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 87, Issue 10, October 2006)
- Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray

Comments on “Impacts of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Scheme”
(Journal of Climate, Volume 18, Issue 23, December 2005)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Christopher Landsea

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 (PDF)
(Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 88, Number 18, pp. 197, May 2007)
- Christopher W. Landsea

Hurricanes and Global Warming (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 86, Issue 11, November 2005)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., Christopher W. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, R. Pasch

- Reply to “Hurricanes and Global Warming—Potential Linkages and Consequences” (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 87, Issue 5, May 2006)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., Christopher W. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, R. Pasch

Hurricanes and Global Warming (PDF)
(Nature, Volume 438, Number 7071, pp. E11-E12, December 2005)
- Christopher W. Landsea

Landscape and Regional Impacts of Hurricanes in New England
(Ecological Monographs, Volume 71, Number 1, pp. 27-48, February 2001)
- Emery R. Boose, Kristen E. Chamberlin, David R. Foster

Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95 (PDF)
(Weather and Forecasting, Volume 13, Issue 3, September 1998)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., Christopher W. Landsea

Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005 (PDF)
(Natural Hazards, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42, February 2008)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., Joel Gratz, Christopher W. Landsea, Douglas Collins, Mark A. Saunders, Rade Musulin6

Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 9, May 2006)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Robert E. Davis

Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
(Nature Geoscience, Volume 1, Number 6, pp. 359-364, June 2008)
- Thomas R. Knutson et al.

Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005) (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 11, May 2006)
- Philip J. Klotzbach

Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 79, Issue 1, January 1998)
- A. Henderson-Sellers, H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S.-L. Shieh, P. Webster, K. McGuffie

Malaria:

Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease (PDF)
(Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 109, Supplement 1, March 2001)
- Paul Reiter

From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age (PDF)
(Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 6, Number 1, January–February 2000)
- Paul Reiter

Global warming and malaria: a call for accuracy
(Lancet Infectious Diseases, Volume 4, Issue 6, pp. 323-324, June 2004)
- Paul Reiter, C. Thomas, P. Atkinson, S. Hay, S. Randolph, D. Rogers, G. Shanks, R. Snow, A. Spielman

Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart
(Malaria Journal, Volume 7, Supplement 1, December 2008)
- Paul Reiter

Malaria and Global Warming in Perspective? (PDF)
(Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 6, Number 4, pp. 438-9. July-August 2000)
- Paul Reiter

Medieval Warming Period – Little Ice Age:

A 700 year record of Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability
(Annals of Glaciology, Volume 39, Number 1, pp.127-132, June 2004)
- P.A Mayewski et al.

Caribbean sea surface temperatures: Two‐to‐three degrees cooler than present during the Little Ice Age
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Issue 20, pp. 3365-3368, Octonber 2000)
- Amos Winter, Hiroshi Ishioroshi, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Tadamichi Oba, John R. Christy

Coherent High- and Low-Latitude Climate Variability During the Holocene Warm Period
(Science, Volume 288, Number 5474, pp. 2198-2202, June 2000)
- Peter deMenocal, Joseph Ortiz, Tom Guilderson, Michael Sarnthein

Evidence for a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ in a 1,100 year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral summer temperatures in New Zealand
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Number 14, pp. 1-4, July 2002)
- E. R. Cook, J. G. Palmer, R. D’Arrigo

Evidence for a warmer period during the 12th and 13th centuries AD from chironomid assemblages in Southampton Island, Nunavut, Canada
(Quaternary Research, Volume 72, Issue 1, pp. 27-37, July 2009)
- Nicolas Rolland et al.

Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China
(Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2-3, pp. 289-297, March 1994)
- De’Er Zhang

Glacial geological evidence for the medieval warm period
(Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2-3, pp. 143-169, March 1994)
- Jean M. Grove, Roy Switsur

Late Holocene surface ocean conditions of the Norwegian Sea (Vøring Plateau)
(Paleoceanography, Volume 18, Number 2, June 2003)
- Carin Andersson, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Eystein Jansen, Svein Olaf Dahl

Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability
(Science, Volume 295, Number 5563, pp. 2250-2253, March 2002)
- Jan Esper, Edward R. Cook, Fritz H. Schweingruber

Medieval climate warming and aridity as indicated by multiproxy evidence from the Kola Peninsula, Russia
(Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Volume 209, Issues 1-4, pp. 113-125, July 2004)
- K. V. Kremenetski, T. Boettger, G. M. MacDonald, T. Vaschalova, L. Sulerzhitsky, A. Hiller

Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 36, Issues 1-2, pp. 17-29, March 2003)
- T. M. Cronin, G. S. Dwyer, T. Kamiya, S. Schwede, D. A. Willard

Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes of the Past 1000 Years: A Reappraisal (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 233-296, May 2003)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Craig Idso, David R. Legates

“Many records reveal that the 20th century is likely not the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climatic period of the last millennium.”

The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea
(Science, Volume 274, Number 5292, pp. 1503-1508, November 29, 1996)
- Lloyd D. Keigwin

The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa
(South African Journal of Science, Volume 96, Number 3, pp. 121-126, 2000)
- P. D. Tyson, W. Karlén, K. Holmgren and G. A. Heiss

The Little Ice Age as Recorded in the Stratigraphy of the Tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap
(Science, Volume 234, Number 4774, pp. 361-364, October 1986)
- L.G. Thompson, E. Mosley-Thompson, W. Dansgaard, P.M. Grootes

The ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ drought recorded in Lake Huguangyan, tropical South China
(Holocene, Volume 12, Number 5, pp. 511-516, 2002)
- Guoqiang Chu, Jiaqi Liu, Qing Sun, Houyuan Lu, Zhaoyan Gu, Wenyuan Wang, Tungsheng Liu

The Medieval Warm Period in the Daihai Area
(Journal of Lake Sciences, Volume 14, Number 3, pp. 209-216, September 2002)
- Z. Jin, J. Shen, S. Wang, E. Zhang

Time scales and trends in the central England temperature data (1659–1990): A wavelet analysis
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 24, Issue 11, pp. 1351-1354, June 1997)
- Sallie Baliunas, Peter Frick, Dmitry Sokoloff, Willie Soon

Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers
(Climate Dynamics, Volume 31, Numbers 7-8, December 2008)
- Håkan Grudd

Tree-ring and glacial evidence for the medieval warm epoch and the little ice age in southern South America
(Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2-3, March 1994)
- Ricardo Villalba

Was the Medieval Warm Period Global? (PDF)
(Science, Volume 291, Number 5508, pp. 1497-1499, February 2001)
- Wallace S. Broecker

“The Little Ice Age and the subsequent warming were global in extent. Several Holocene fluctuations in snowline, comparable in magnitude to that of the post-Little Ice Age warming, occurred in the Swiss Alps. Borehole records both in polar ice and in wells from all continents suggest the existence of a Medieval Warm Period. Finally, two multidecade-duration droughts plagued the western United States during the latter part of the Medieval Warm Period. I consider this evidence sufficiently convincing to merit an intensification of studies aimed at elucidating Holocene climate fluctuations, upon which the warming due to greenhouse gases is superimposed.”


Ocean Acidification:

Elevated water temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase the growth of a keystone echinoderm
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 106, Issue 23, pp. 9316-9321, June 2009)
- Rebecca A. Gooding, Christopher D. G. Harley, Emily Tang

Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Number 10, May 2006)
- Hugo A. Loáiciga

“This paper’s results concerning average seawater salinity and acidity show that, on a global scale and over the time scales considered (hundreds of years), there would not be accentuated changes in either seawater salinity or acidity from the observed or hypothesized rises in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.”

Phytoplankton Calcification in a High-CO2 World
(Science, Volume 320, Number 5874, pp. 336-340, April 2008)
- M. Debora Iglesias-Rodriguez et al.

Permafrost:

Ancient Permafrost and a Future, Warmer Arctic
(Science, Volume 321, Number 5896, pp. 1648, September 2008)
- Duane G. Froese, John A. Westgate, Alberto V. Reyes, Randolph J. Enkin, Shari J. Preece

“We report the presence of relict ground ice in subarctic Canada that is greater than 700,000 years old, with the implication that ground ice in this area has survived past interglaciations that were warmer and of longer duration than the present interglaciation.”

Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 9, May 2007)
- G. Delisle

“Based on paleoclimatic data and in consequence of this study, it is suggested that scenarios calling for massive release of methane in the near future from degrading permafrost are questionable.”


Polar Bears:

Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? (PDF)
(Ecological Complexity, Volume 4, Issue 3, pp. 73-84, September 2007)
- M.G. Dyck, W. Soon, R.K. Baydack, D.R. Legates, S. Baliunas, T.F. Ball, L.O. Hancock

- Reply to response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay by Stirling et al. (2008)
(Ecological Complexity, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp. 289-302, December 2008)
- M.G. Dyck, W. Soon, R.K. Baydack, D.R. Legates, S. Baliunas, T.F. Ball, L.O. Hancock

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (PDF)
(Interfaces, Volume 75, April 2008)
- J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie H. Soon

Sea Level:

Estimating future sea level changes from past records (PDF)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issues 1-2, pp. 49-54, January 2004)
- Nils-Axel Mörner

- Comment on comment by Nerem et al. (2007) on “Estimating future sea level changes from past records” by Nils-Axel Mörner (2004)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 62, Issues 3-4, Pages 219-220, June 2008)
- Nils-Axel Mörner

Geocentric sea-level trend estimates from GPS analyses at relevant tide gauges world-wide (PDF)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 57, Issues 3-4, pp. 396-406, June 2007)
- G. Wöppelmann, B. Martin Miguez, M.-N. Bouin, Z. Altamimi

Global Warming and Sea Level Rise (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 7, pp. 1067-1074, 2009)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

New perspectives for the future of the Maldives (PDF)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issue 1-2, pp. 177-182, January 2004)
- Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Goran Possnert

- Reply to the comment of P.S. Kench et al. on “New perspectives for the future of the Maldives” by N.A. Morner et al.
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 47, Issue 1, pp. 70-71, February 2005)
- Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley

Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
(Science, Volume 308, Number 5730, pp. 1898-1901, June 2005)
- Curt H. Davis, Yonghong Li, Joseph R. McConnell, Markus M. Frey, Edward Hanna
)

Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis, Environmental Stress and Migration Overseas: The Case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka (PDF)
(International Quarterly for Asian Studies, Volume 38, Number 3–4, pp. 353–374, November 2007)
- Nils-Axel Mörner

The Maldives project: a future free from sea-level flooding
(Contemporary South Asia, Volume 13, Number 2, pp. 149-155, June 2004)
- Nils-Axel Mörner

Species Extinctions:

Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions
(Nature, Volume 428, Issue 6985, pp. 799, April 2004)
- Richard J. Ladle, Paul Jepson, Miguel B. Araújo & Robert J. Whittaker

Riding the Wave: Reconciling the Roles of Disease and Climate Change in Amphibian Declines
(PLoS Biology, Volume 6, Number 3, pp. 441-454, March 2008)
- Karen R. Lips, Jay Diffendorfer, Joseph R. Mendelson III, Michael W. Sears


Storms:

Changes in Global Monsoon Circulations Since 1950
(Natural Hazards, Volume 29, Number 2, pp. 229-254, June 2003)
- T. N. Chase, J. A. Knaff, R. A. Pielke Sr., E. Kalnay

Changing storminess? An analysis of long-term sea level data sets (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 11, Number 2, pp. 161-172, March 1999)
- W. Bijl, R. Flather, J. G. de Ronde, T. Schmith

Characteristics of long-duration precipitation events across the United States
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 22, November 2007)
- David M. Brommer, Randall S. Cerveny, Robert C. Balling Jr.

Climate change and extratropical storminess in the United States: An assessment?
(Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Volume 35, Number 6, pp. 1387-1398, December 1999)
- Bruce P. Hayden

Comment on WMO Statement on Extreme Weather Events
(Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Volume 84, Issue 41, pp. 428-428 , February 2003)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

Compilation and Discussion of Trends in Severe Storms in the United States: Popular Perception v. Climate Reality
(Natural Hazards, Volume 29, Number 2, pp. 103-112, June 2003)
- Robert C. Balling Jr., Randall S. Cerveny

Extreme Weather Trends Vs. Dangerous Climate Change: A Need for Critical Reassessment
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 2, pp. 327-332, March 2005)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario
(Natural Hazards, Volume 29, Number 2, pp. 189-206, June 2003)
- R. H. Kripalani, Ashwini Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, M. L Khandekar

North American Trends in Extreme Precipitation
(Natural Hazards, Volume 29, Number 2, pp. 291-305, June, 2003)
- Kenneth E. Kunkel

Scandinavian storminess since about 1800
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 20, October 2004)
- Lars Bärring, Hans von Storch

Seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability of storm surges at Tauranga, New Zealand
(New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, Volume 34, Number 3, pp. 419-434, September 2000)
- W. P. De Lange, J. G. Gibb

Surges, atmospheric pressure and wind change and flooding probability on the Atlantic coast of France
(Oceanologica Acta, Volume 23, Number 6, pp. 643-661, November 2000)
- P.A. Pirazzoli

Trends in precipitation on the wettest days of the year across the contiguous USA?
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 24, Number 15, pp. 1873-1882, December 2004)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Robert E. Davis

Twentieth-Century Storm Activity along the U.S. East Coast (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 13, Issue 10, pp. 1748-1761, May 2000)
- Keqi Zhang, Bruce C. Douglas, Stephen P. Leatherman

Tornadoes:

Normalized Damage from Major Tornadoes in the United States: 1890–1999 (PDF)
(Weather and Forecasting, Volume 16, Issue 1, pp. 168-176, February 2001)
- Harold E. Brooks, Charles A. Doswell III


1,500-Year Climate Cycle:

A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates
(Science, Volume 278, Number 5341, pp. 1257-1266, November 1997)
- Gerard Bond et al.

A Variable Sun Paces Millennial Climate
(Science, Volume 294, Number 5546, pp. 1431-1433, November 2001)
- Richard A. Kerr

Cyclic Variation and Solar Forcing of Holocene Climate in the Alaskan Subarctic
(Science, Volume 301, Number 5641, pp. 1890-1893, September 2003)
- Feng Sheng Hu et al.

Decadal to millennial cyclicity in varves and turbidites from the Arabian Sea: hypothesis of tidal origin
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 34, Issues 3-4, pp. 313-325, November 2002)
- W. H. Bergera, U. von Rad

Late Holocene approximately 1500 yr climatic periodicities and their implications
(Geology, Volume 26, Number 5, pp. 471-473, May 1998)
- Ian D. Campbell et al.

Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model
(Nature, Volume 438, Issue 70695, pp. 208-211, November 2005)
- Holger Braun et al.

The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 97, Number 8, pp. 3814-3819, April 2000)
- Charles D. Keeling, Timothy P. Whorf

The origin of the 1500-year climate cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic records (PDF)
(Climate of the Past, Volume 3, Issue 2, pp.679-692, 2007)
- M. Debret et al.

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 10, pp. 17-1, May 2003)
- Stefan Rahmstorf

Timing of Millennial-Scale Climate Change in Antarctica and Greenland During the Last Glacial Period
(Science, Volume 291, Issue 5501, pp. 109-112, January 2001)
- Thomas Blunier, Edward J. Brook

Widespread evidence of 1500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr
(Geology, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp. 455-458, May 2002)
- André E. Viau et al.

Cosmic Rays:

Solar variability influences on weather and climate: Possible connections through cosmic ray fluxes and storm intensification
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 94, Number D12, pp. 14783-14792, October 1989)
- Brian A, Tinsley, Geoffrey M. Brown, Philip H. Scherrer

Hale-cycle effects in cosmic-ray intensity during the last four cycles
(Astrophysics and Space Science, Volume 246, Number 1, March 1996)
- H. Mavromichalaki, A. Belehaki, X. Rafios, I. Tsagouri

Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships (PDF)
(Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 59, Number 11, pp. 1225-1232, July 1997)
- Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen

- Reply to comments on “Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar-climate relationships” (PDF)
(Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 62, Issue 1, pp. 79-80, January 2000)
- Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen

Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth’s Climate (PDF)
(Physical Review Letters, Volume 81, Issue 22, pp. 5027-5030, November 1998)
- Henrik Svensmark

Cosmic rays and Earth’s climate (PDF)
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 93, Numbers 1-2, pp. 175-185, July 2000)
- Henrik Svensmark

Cosmic rays and climate: The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming
(Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 41, Issue 4, pp. 4.18-4.22, August 2000)
- E Pallé Bagó, C J Butler

Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate (PDF)
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 94, Numbers 1-2, pp. 215-230, November 2000)
- Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays
(Physical Review Letters, Volume 85, Issue 23, pp. 5004-5007, December 2000)
- Nigel D Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

On the relationship of cosmic ray flux and precipitation
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Number 8, pp. 1527–1530, April 2001)
- Dominic R. Kniveton and Martin C. Todd

Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 107, Issue A7, pp. SIA 8-1, July 2002)
- Fangqun Yu

Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection (PDF)
(Physical Review Letters, Volume 89, Number 5, July 2002)
- Nir J. Shaviv

The Spiral Structure of the Milky Way, Cosmic Rays, and Ice Age Epochs on Earth
(New Astronomy, Volume 8, Issue 1, pp. 39-77, January 2003)
- Nir J. Shaviv

Galactic cosmic ray and El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 108, Number D6, pp. AAC 6-1, March 2003)
- Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

Solar Influence on Earth’s Climate
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 107, Numbers 1-2, pp. 317-325, April 2003)
- Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

Toward a solution to the early faint Sun paradox: A lower cosmic ray flux from a stronger solar wind (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 108, Number A12, pp. SSH 3-1, December 2003)
- Nir J. Shaviv

Latitudinal dependence of low cloud amount on cosmic ray induced ionization
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 16, August 2004)
- I.G. Usoskin, N.Marsh, G.A. Kovaltsov, K.Mursula, O.G. Gladysheva

The effects of galactic cosmic rays, modulated by solar terrestrial magnetic fields, on the climate
(Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, Volume 6, Number 5, October 2004)
- V. A. Dergachev, P. B. Dmitriev, O. M. Raspopov, B. Van Geel

Formation of large NAT particles and denitrification in polar stratosphere: possible role of cosmic rays and effect of solar activity
(Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Volume 4, Issue 1, pp.1037-1062, November 2004)
- F. Yu

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp. 484-490, May 2005)
- S.V. Veretenenko, , V.A. Dergachev, P.B. Dmitriyev

On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 110, Issue A8, August 2005)
- Nir J. Shaviv

Cosmic rays and the biosphere over 4 billion years
(Astronomical Notes, Volume 327, Issue 9, pp. 871, 2006)
- Henrik Svensmark

Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds (PDF)
(Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Volume 462, Issue 2068, pp. 1221-1233, April 2006)
- R. Giles Harrison, David B. Stephenson

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 127, Numbers 1-4, December 2006)
- K. Scherer, H. Fichtner, T. Borrmann, J. Beer, L. Desorgher, E. Flükiger, H. Fahr, S. Ferreira, U. Langner, M. Potgieter, B. Heber, J. Masarik, N. Shaviv, J. Veizer

Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges (PDF)
(Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 48, Issue 1, pp. 1.18-1.24, February 2007)
- Henrik Svensmark

Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 3, pp. 353-364, February 2007)
- Charles A. Perrya

Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions (PDF)
(Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Volume 463, Number 2078, p 385-396, February 2007)
- Henrik Svensmark et al.

200-year variations in cosmic rays modulated by solar activity and their climatic response
(Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, Volume 71, Number 7, July 2007)
- O. M. Raspopov, V. A. Dergachev

On the possible contribution of solar-cosmic factors to the global warming of XX century
(Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, Volume 71, Number 7, July 2007)
- M. G. Ogurtsov

Cosmic rays and climate of the Earth: possible connection
(Comptes Rendus Geosciences, Volume 340, Issue 7, pp. 441-450, July 2008)
- Ilya G. Usoskina, Gennady A. Kovaltsovb

Cosmic Rays and Climate
(Surveys in Geophysics, Volume 28, Numbers 5-6, November 2007)
- Jasper Kirkby

Coal and fuel burning effects on the atmosphere as mediated by the atmospheric electric field and galactic cosmic rays flux
(International Journal of Global Warming, Volume 1, Numbers 1-2, pp. 57-65, July 2009)
- Reis, A. Heitor, Serrano, Claudia

Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 15, August 2009)
- Henrik Svensmark, Torsten Bondo, Jacob Svensmark

A relationship between galactic cosmic radiation and tree rings
(New Phytologist, Volume 184, Issue 3, pp. 545-551, September 2009)
- Sigrid Dengel, Dominik Aeby and John Grace

Solar:

80–120 yr Long-term solar induced effects on the earth, past and predictions
(Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Volume 31, Issues 1-3, pp. 113-122, 2006)
- Shahinaz Moustafa Yousef

A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July–August (PDF)
(Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 66, Issue 18, pp. 1767-1778, December 2004)
- Harry van Loona, Gerald A. Meehlb, Julie M. Arblaster

A mechanism for sun-climate connection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 23, December 2005)
- Sultan Hameed, Jae N. Lee

A new pathway for communicating the 11-year solar cycle signal to the QBO
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 18, September 2005)
- Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing
(Science, Volume 325, Number 5944, pp. 1114-1118, August 2009)
- Gerald A. Meehl, Julie M. Arblaster, Katja Matthes, Fabrizio Sassi, Harry van Loon

Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle (PDF)
(Geoscience Canada, Volume 32, Number 1, March 2005)
- Ján Veizer

Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?
(GSA Today, Volume 13, Issue 7, pp. 4-10, July 2003)
- Nir J. Shaviv, Ján Veizer

Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 15, August 2004)
- Gregory C. Wiles et al.

Climate cyclicity in late Holocene anoxic marine sediments from the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex (PDF)
(Marine Geology, Volume 242, Issues 1-3, pp. 123-140, August 2007)
- R. Timothy Patterson, Andreas Prokoph, Eduard Reinhardt, Helen M. Roe

Comparison of proxy records of climate change and solar forcing
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 23, Issue 4, pp. 359-362, February 1996)
- Crowley, Thomas J., Kim, Kwang-Yul

Cyclic Variation and Solar Forcing of Holocene Climate in the Alaskan Subarctic (PDF)
(Science, Volume 301, Number 5641, pp. 1890-1893, September 2003)
- Feng Sheng Hu et al.

Earth’s Heat Source – The Sun (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 131-144, January 2009)
- Oliver K. Manuel

Earth’s Radiative Equilibrium in the Solar Irradiance (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 85-95, January 2009)
- Martin Hertzberg

Eleven-year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 109, Issue D21, November 2004)
- K. Coughlin, K. K. Tung

Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe (PDF)
(Comptes Rendus Geosciences, Volume 340, Issue 7, pp. 421-430, July 2008)
- Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, Elena Blanter, Mikhail Shnirman

Evidence of Solar Variation in Tree-Ring-Based Climate Reconstructions
(Solar Physics, Volume 205, Number 2, pp. 403-417, February 2002)
- M.G. Ogurtsov , G.E. Kocharov, M. Lindholm, J. Meriläinen, M. Eronen, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 97, Number 23, pp. 12433-12438, November 2000)
- Charles A. Perry, Kenneth J. Hsu

Global Temperature Forced by Solar Irradiation and Greenhouse Gases? (PDF)
(Ambio, Volume 30, Number 6, pp. 349-350, September 2001)
- Wibjörn Karlén

Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 7, pp. 1173-1180, March 2007)
- Joan Feynmana

Imprint of Galactic dynamics on Earth’s climate (PDF)
(Astronomical Notes, Volume 327, Issue 9, pp. 866-870, October 2006)
- H. Svensmark

Inference of Solar Irradiance Variability from Terrestrial Temperature Changes, 1880–1993: an Astrophysical Application of the Sun-Climate Connection (PDF)
(Astrophysical Journal, Volume 472, pp. 891, December 1996)
- Willie H. Soon, Eric S. Posmentier, Sallie L. Baliunas

Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River?
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 111, Issue D21, November 2006)
- Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Yuk L. Yung

Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate
(Science, Volume 254, Number 5032, pp. 698-700, November 1991)
- E. Friis-Christensen, K. Lassen

Linkages Between Solar Activity and Climatic Responses
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 2, pp. 239-254, March 2005)
- William J.R. Alexander et al.

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development (PDF)
(Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, Volume 49, Number 2, pp. 32–44, June 2007)
- William J.R. Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe, N Willemse

Long-Period Cycles of the Sun’s Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies
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- M.G. Ogurtsov, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn, G.E. Kocharov, H. Jungner

Millennium Scale Sunspot Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940’s (PDF)
(Physical Review Letters, Volume 91, Issue 21, November 2003)
- Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi Mursula, Katja Alanko

On solar forcing of Holocene climate: evidence from Scandinavia
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Once again about global warming and solar activity (PDF)
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Orbital Controls on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Tropical Climate
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- A. C. Clement, R. Seager, M. A. Cane

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science
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- Frank M. Chambers, Michael I. Ogle, Jeffrey J. Blackford

Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene
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- Gerard Bond et al.

Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming (PDF)
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Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record (PDF)
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Possible geomagnetic activity effects on weather
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Possible solar forcing of century-scale drought frequency in the northern Great Plains
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- Zicheng Yu, Emi Ito

Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations
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Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth’s climate (PDF)
(Journal of Coastal Research, Issue 50, pp. 955-968, 2007)
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Solar activity variations and global temperature
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Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude climate variability
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- Ronald E. Thresher

Solar cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response
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- David C. Archibald

Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate
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- Drew Shindell, David Rind, Nambeth Balachandran, Judith Lean, Patrick Lonergan

Solar Forcing of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation, Earth’s Rotation and Climate (PDF)
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- Adriano Mazzarella

Solar Forcing of Climate. 1: Solar Variability
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Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past
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- Gerard J. M. Versteegh

Solar Forcing of Drought Frequency in the Maya Lowlands
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- David A. Hodell, Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Thomas Guilderson

Solar forcing of the polar atmosphere (PDF)
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- Andrew Mayewski et al.

Solar influence on the spatial structure of the NAO during the winter 1900-1999
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 4, pp. 24-1, February 2003)
- Kunihiko Kodera

Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record
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- George C. Reid

Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature
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- E.W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff, J. Feynman

Solar variability and ring widths in fossil trees
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- S. Cecchini, M. Galli, T. Nanni, L. Ruggiero

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia (PDF)
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 125, Issue 1-4, pp. 67-79, December 2006)
- J. Beer, M. Vonmoos, R. Muscheler

Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth’s temperature
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 8, April 2007)
- H. B. Hammel, G. W. Lockwood

Sun-Climate Linkage Now Confirmed
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 123-130, January 2009)
- Adriano Mazzarella

Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar region
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 14, Issue 5, p. 535-537, May 1987)
- Karin Labitzke

Sunspots, the QBO and the stratosphere in the North Polar Region – 20 years later
(Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Volume 15, Number 3, pp. 355-363, June 2006)
- Karin Labitzke et al.

Sunspots, the QBO, and the Stratosphere in the North Polar Region: An Update
(Advances in Global Change Research, Volume 33, pp. 347-357, 2007)
- Karin Labitzke et al.

Superfluidity in the Solar Interior: Implications for Solar Eruptions and Climate (PDF)
(Journal of Fusion Energy, Volume 21, Numbers 3-4, pp. 193-198, December 2002)
- Oliver K. Manuel, Barry W. Ninham, Stig E. Friberg

Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 14, July 2007)
- Charles D. Camp, Ka Kit Tung

The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection
(Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 88, Numbers 3-4, March 2007)
- Adriano Mazzarella

The influence of the 11 yr solar cycle on the interannual–centennial climate variability
(Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 67, Issues 8-9, pp. 793-805 ,May-June 2005)
- Hengyi Weng

The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late-Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex
(Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 64, Issue 4, pp. 1267–1283, April 2007)
- Charles D. Camp, Ka-Kit Tung

The link between the solar dynamo and climate – The evidence from a long mean air temperature series from Northern Ireland
(Irish Astronomical Journal, Volume 21, Number 3-4, pp. 251-254, September 1994)
- C.J. Butler, D.J. Johnston

The signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 80, Numbers 3-4, pp. 393-410, May 1997)
- K. Labitzke, H. van Loon

The Sun–Earth Connection in Time Scales from Years to Decades and Centuries
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 95, Numbers 1-2, pp. 625-637, January 2001)
- T.I. Pulkkinen, H. Nevanlinna, P.J. Pulkkinen, M. Lockwood

The Sun’s Role in Regulating the Earth’s Climate Dynamics
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 25-73, January 2009)
- Richard Mackey

Understanding Solar Behaviour and its Influence on Climate
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 145-159, January 2009)
- Timo Niroma

Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 113, Issue A11, November 2008)
- Nir J. Shaviv

Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcings of change in earth’s climate? (PDF)
(New Astronomy, Volume 4, Issue 8, pp. 563-579, January 2000)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L Baliunas, Eric S. Posmentier, P. Okeke

Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate
(Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Volume 57, Issue 8, pp. 835-845, July 1995)
- K. Lassen, E. Friis-Christensen

Variations in Radiocarbon Concentration and Sunspot Activity
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 66, Issue 1, pp.273, January 1961)
- Stuiver, M.

Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
(Science, Volume 194, Number 4270, pp. 1121-1132, December 1976)
- J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton

What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 4-5, pp. 913-921, September 1997)
- Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark

Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future?
(Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, Volume 43, pp. 124-127, 2003)
- V. S. Bashkirtsev, G. P. Mashnich


IPCC:

Biased Policy Advice from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 929-936, December 2007)
- Richard S.J. Tol

Crystal balls, virtual realities and ’storylines’
(Energy & Environment, Volume 12, Number 4, pp. 343-349, July 2001)
- Richard S. Courtney

Has the IPCC exaggerated adverse impact of Global Warming on human societies? (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 5, pp. 713-719, September 2008)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

The IPCC Emission Scenarios: An Economic-Statistical Critique
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, pp. 159-185, May 2003)
- Ian Castles, David R. Henderson

The IPCC future projections: are they plausible? (PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 10, Number 2, pp. 155–162, August 1998)
- Vincent Gray

The IPCC: Structure, Processes and Politics Climate Change – the Failure of Science
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 1073-1078, December 2007)
- William J.R. Alexander

The UN IPCC’s Artful Bias: Summary of Findings: Glaring Omissions, False Confidence and Misleading Statistics in the Summary for Policymakers
(Energy & Environment, Volume 13, Number 3, pp. 311-328, July 2002)
- Wojick D. E.

Kyoto Protocol:

A 2004 View of the Kyoto Protocol
(Energy & Environment, Volume 15, Number 3, pp. 505-511, July 2004)
- S. Fred Singer

After Kyoto: A Global Scramble for Advantage (PDF)
(The Independent Review, Volume 4, Number 1, pp. 19-40, 1999)
- Bruce Yandle

Climate Change: Beyond Kyoto
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 5, pp. 763-766, September 2005)
- Anne, Lauvergeon

Climate policy and uncertainty
(Energy & Environment, Volume 12, Numbers 5-6, pp. 415-423, November 2001)
- Catrinus J. Jepma

Clouds Over Kyoto (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 21, Number 1, pp. 57-63, 1998)
- Jerry Taylor

The Role of the IPCC is To Assess Climate Change Not Advocate Kyoto
(Energy & Environment, Volume 15, Number 3, pp. 369-373, July 2004)
- Ian Castles

Time to ditch Kyoto
(Nature, Volume 449, Issue 7165, pp. 973-975, October 2007)
- Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner

Socio-Economic:

Best practices in prediction for decision-making: Lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences (PDF)
(Ecology, Volume 84, Number 6, pp. 1351-1358, June 2003)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., Richard T. Conant

Calling the Carbon Bluff: Why Not Tie Carbon Taxes to Actual Levels of Warming? Both Skeptics and Alarmists Should Expect Their Wishes to Be Answered (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 5, pp. 707-711, September 2008)
- Ross McKitrick

Climate Change 2007: Lifting the taboo on adaptation
(Nature, Volume 445, Issue 7128, pp. 597-598, February 2007)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr, Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner, Daniel Sarewitz

Climate change and the world bank: Opportunity for global governance?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 27-50, January 1999)
- Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen

Climate Policy : Quo Vadis?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 207-213, January 2009)
- Hans Labohm

Climate Vulnerability and the Indispensable Value of Industrial Capitalism
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 5, pp. 733-745, September 2009)
- Keith H. Lockitch

Discounting the Future (PDF)
(Regulation, Volume 32, Number 1, pp. 36-40, 2009)
- Indur M. Goklany

Environmentalism in the light of Menger and Mises (PDF)
(Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Volume 5, Number 2, pp. 3-15, June 2002)
- George Reisman

Free speech about climate change
(Society, Volume 44, Number 4, May 2007)
- Christopher Monckton

Global Warming and Its Dangers (PDF)
(The Independent Review, Volume 8, Number 4, 2004)
- Jeffrey R. Clark, Dwight R. Lee

Global Warming, the Politicization of Science, and Michael Crichton’s State of Fear (PDF)
(Journal of Scientific Exploration, Volume 19, Number 2, pp. 247-256, 2005)
- David Deming

Global Warming: The Social Construction of A Quasi-Reality?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 6, pp. 805-813, November 2007)
- Dennis Ambler

Governments and Climate Change Issues: The case for a new approach
(Energy & Environment, Volume 17, Number 4, pp. 619-632, July 2006)
- David R. Henderson

Governments and Climate Change Issues: The case for rethinking
(World Economics Journal, Volume 8, Issue 2, April 2007)
- David R. Henderson

How Serious is the Global Warming Threat?
(Society, Volume 44, Number 5, pp. 45-50, September 2007)
- Roy W. Spencer

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development (PDF)
(Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Volume 12, Number 5, pp. 755-786, June 2007)
- Indur M. Goklany

Is a Richer-but-warmer World Better than Poorer-but-cooler Worlds?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 1023-1048, December 2007)
- Indur M. Goklany

Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age”? (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 3, pp. 279-302, July 2009)
- Indur M. Goklany

Managing Planet Earth; Adaptation and Cosmology (PDF)
(The Cato Journal, Volume 19 Number 1, pp. 69-83, 1999 )
- Curtis A. Pendergraft

Mitigation versus compensation in global warming policy (PDF)
(Economics Bulletin, Volume 17, pp. 1-6, December 2001)
- Ross McKitrick

Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Number 6, pp. 797-822, November 2003)
- Indur M. Goklany

Rolling the DICE: William Nordhaus’s Dubious Case for a Carbon Tax (PDF)
(The Independent Review, Volume 14, Number 2, 2009)
- Robert P. Murphy

Science and Environmental Policy-Making: Bias-Proofing the Assessment Process (PDF)
(Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 53, Number 4, pp. 275-290, December 2005)
- Ross McKitrick

Scientific Shortcomings in the EPA’s Endangerment Finding from Greenhouse Gases (PDF)
(The Cato Journal, Volume 29 Number 3, pp. 497-521, 2009)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger

Should We Have Acted Thirty Years Ago to Prevent Climate Change? (PDF)
(The Independent Review, Volume 11, Number 2, 2006)
- Randall G. Holcombe

Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade (PDF)
(Climatic Change, Volume 30, pp. 427-449, 1995)
- Indur M. Goklany

The Eco-Industrial Complex in USA – Global Warming and Rent-Seeking Coalitions
(Energy & Environment, Volume 19, Number 7, pp. 941-958, December 2008)
- Ivan Jankovic

The evolution of an energy contrarian
(Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Volume 211, pp. 31-67, November 1996)
- Henry R. Linden

The Government Grant System: Inhibitor of Truth and Innovation? (PDF)
(Journal of Information Ethics, Volume 16, Number 1, Spring 2007)
- Donald W. Miller

The Politicised Science of Greenhouse Climate Change
(Energy & Environment, Volume 15, Number 5, pp. 853-860, September 2004)
- Garth Paltridge

The Real Climate Change Morality Crisis: Climate change initiatives perpetuate poverty, disease and premature death
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 5, pp. 763-777, September 2009)
- Paul Driessen

Turning the big knob: An evaluation of the use of energy policy to modulate future climate impacts
(Energy & Environment, Volume 11, Number 3, pp. 255-275, May 2000)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr., R. Klein, D. Sarewitz
)

When scientists politicize science: making sense of controversy over The Skeptical Environmentalist (PDF)
(Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 7, Issue 5, pp. 405-417, October 2004)
- Roger A. Pielke Jr.

Stern Review:

Climate Science and the Stern Review (PDF)
(World Economics, Volume 8, Number 2, April–June 2007)
- Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland, Richard S. Lindzen

The Stern Review: A Dual Critique (PDF)
(World Economics, Volume 7, Number 4, pp. 165-232, October–December 2006)
- Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland, Richard S. Lindzen, Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson, Robert Skidelsky

- Response to Simmonds and Steffen (PDF)
(World Economics, Volume 8, Number 2, April–June 2007)
- David Holland, Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, Richard S. Lindzen

Is Stern Review on climate change alarmist?
(Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 5, pp. 521-532, September 2007)
- S. Niggol Seo

The Stern Review on Climate Change: Inconvenient Sensitivities
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 5, pp. 779-798, September 2009)
- Sergey Mityakov, Christof Rühl

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#12) On December 18, 2009 at 9:20 AM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

Thanks David,

That should keep the link-master busy for a while.

All natural forcings = net natural forcing. A net cooling forcing from nature doesn't mean that every individual forcing is negative. Check the graph of radiative forcings and see their magnitudes and directions.


Really? You sure you've got all of them? I don't see snowfall, global population increases, orbital varibility, cosmic radation, or cloud formation on that graph and they would all have an effect.

"when I pick one like the sun, you then say well yeah it had a positive effect, but not a big one."
The weight of evidence points to a small positive solar forcing but there's substantial evidence saying the opposite (negative solar forcing):
 * Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
 * Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
 * Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
 * Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970".
 * Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend."


Thank you for admitting that you don't know.

The sun alone would almost enough to knock a tenth of a degree off the already small 0.5 deg C."
The solar forcing is small, the warming in the 20th century is greater than 0.5 deg. C

But half of the century was below normal according to your graph! Are you claiming that warming from below normal is part of the anomaly? It's hard enough to take 0.5 deg above normal as an anomaly at all! Now your challenging regression to the mean?

If "my group" doesn't want to hear about natural variability, why do they waste their time measuring solar output, monitoring volcanoes, checking ozone and doing attribution studies?

They only seem to measure them enough to say that they looked and are dismissing the data.

Are you accusing me of relying on argument from authority?

I am accusing the IPCC of doing exactly that and so are 31,000 scientists.

Provide evidence. I never dismissed the existence of natural climate change, the existence of warmer epochs in the distant past, the existence of uncertainty over some data, etc.

What about the more recent past? Was the medieval period warmer or cooler than it is now? Carefull how you answer.

- The abundance and accuracy of proxies. I laughed out loud when I read that one!


- A macro-stable climate period relevant to mankind and civilization. Uhm, civilization has been around a lot longer than 1000 years.


If you want paleoclimatic reconstructions of the deep past, they're available. The deep past provides the following evidence:
- The
utmost importance of CO2. I must have missed the part of that article, where they explained how we could have 10 times the amount of Carbon that we do now in an Ice Age.


- Empirical constraints to the magnitude of the climate sensitivity. But I thought everything about natural forcings was completely understood? Could the scientists be fallible after all? Don't let the pro GW guys hear you say that or they will be coming after you with pitchforks!

 

 

 

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#13) On December 18, 2009 at 5:09 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@whereaminow,
"450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of anthropogenic caused Global Warming"
You're a total and complete joke It would be good to apply the same skepticism to papers/data/theories doubtful of AGW as you are skeptical of papers/data/theories supporting AGW. I know I'm asking too much of your feeble mind:

- Roger A. Pielke Jr. :
"My attention has just be called to a list of "450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming." A quick count shows that they have 21 papers on the list by me and/or my father. Assuming that these are Hypothesis 1 type bloggers they'd better change that to 429 papers, as their list doesn't represent what they think it does."
- Energy and Environment:
"E&E does NOT appear on the Science Citation Index Master Journal List. The ISI is considered “the” listing of peer reviewed journals, and for the most part if a journal does not appear there, it is not peer reviewed.
Scopus, another journal index, lists E&E as a trade publication as distinct and separate from peer reviewed journals.
There is  no mention of peer-review in E&E’s description of themselves, a pretty significant omission if it actually is peer reviewed.
E&E openly admits to allowing politics to influence editorial decisions (here)"

- Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum warming (Nature Geoscience paper)
"If the additional warming in the past was a response to rising carbon dioxide, then also future warming could be much stronger than anticipated" In other words, the paper is not skeptical of AGW. It's an "alarmist paper" (compared to the consensus view of climate sensitivity) saying that our models may underestimate warming.
- Oliver K. Manuel: A crackpot claiming that the sun is the iron-core of a supernova



So, what's left of this list when we subtract E&E "papers", papers not really skeptical of AGW (the Nature Geoscience paper, Pielke Sr./Pielke Jr. papers and many others), papers known to be wrong, dated papers, mutually exclusive papers (i.e. if you accept some papers as valid, they invalidate a great number of other papers in your list) and crackpot papers? Not much. Contrast this with Oreskes' sampling of 900 papers, reading the 20 Earth science journals with the highest impact factor, etc.

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#14) On December 18, 2009 at 6:53 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"That should keep the link-master busy for a while."
5 minutes of Google and Google Scholar reveal that list to be a load of BS.

"snowfall"
Are you joking, right?

"global population increases"
Err? The collective heat of 7 billion humans is warming the planet?

"orbital varibility"
Negative forcing at this time.


"Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years" - Source.

"cosmic radation"
Already explained

"Thank you for admitting that you don't know."
Whatever. In your mind, if we don't know everything with 100% certainty (impossible in science) it means that we know nothing.

"But half of the century was below normal according to your graph! Are you claiming that warming from below normal is part of the anomaly? It's hard enough to take 0.5 deg above normal as an anomaly at all! Now your challenging regression to the mean?"
Oh dear. Roughly half of the century was below the 1961-1990 average. This is the warmest decade on 150 years of instrumental record. This decade is warmer than the 90s (even counting the super El Niño) which were warmer than the 80s, which were warmer than the 70s.
For the nth time: a long-tern warming (or cooling) trend doesn't end natural, day-to-day, year-to-year variability.

"They only seem to measure them enough to say that they looked and are dismissing the data."

Evidence? If they're dismissing the data, why aren't other scientists collecting their own data about natural forcings and falsifying the "alarmists"?

"I am accusing the IPCC of doing exactly that and so are 31,000 scientists."
Ohh, the Oregon Petition [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] I'm terrified. A fraudulent petition and a review of climatology published in a journal of medicine (which, by the way, is a hotbed of crackpots)

"What about the more recent past? Was the medieval period warmer or cooler than it is now? Carefull how you answer."
- There's no evidence supporting the assertion that the so-called MWP was a global, simultaneous phenomenon.
- There's little evidence supporting the assertion that the hottest temperatures of the MWP were as warm or warmer than current temperatures.

"I laughed out loud when I read that one!"
(¿?) Do you suggest that we have a higher number of quality proxies with high temporal resolution covering the deep past?

"Uhm, civilization has been around a lot longer than 1000 years."

Civilization started in the Holocene. It's at best 10,000 years old. We're now leaving the comfort zone of the Holocene climate.

"I must have missed the part of that article, where they explained how we could have 10 times the amount of Carbon that we do now in an Ice Age."
Nothing new and it doesn't change the big picture: atmospheric CO2 is the main knob of the Earth's climate and the weathering of silicate rock is the main thermostat.

"But I thought everything about natural forcings was completely understood?"
Straw man. We don't know everything with high certainty but we know enough to make accurate predictions and explain diverse phenomena. Ongoing research will perfect our knowledge.

"Could the scientists be fallible after all?"

They're fallible like everyone else. That said, the scientific process weeds out bad data and flawed hypothesis so we get closer and closer to the truth.

"Don't let the pro GW guys hear you say that or they will be coming after you with pitchforks!"
I don't care about what the pro-GW or anti-GW say/think/do, I care about the evidence and the evidence is clear.

1- Oregon Petition. Wikipedia.
2- Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine. Sourcewatch.
3- What if the Oregon Petition names were real? Greenfyre's.
4- Oregon Petition. DeSmogBlog.com
5- Flawed Oregon Petition Rises Again. Richard Littlemore @ DeSmogBlog.com
6- Oregon Petition. Tim Lambert @ Scienceblogs.com
7- Just What is the Consensus on Global Warming? Gary J. Whittenberger @ eSkeptic (the email newsletter of the Skeptics Society)

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#15) On December 20, 2009 at 12:15 AM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

"snowfall"
Are you joking, right?

Well I could have elaborated more, but I meant snowfall in urban areas and primarily urban areas with high elevation. It's pretty well known that the retreating glaciation in the Himalayas is due to the presence of black carbon on the snow pack. A constant snowfall, (even if it is light) would reduce the impact of black carbon or soot by contiually covering it and provide a net cooling effect. Fewer days of snowfall in the same area would allow an increase of the current warming effect.



"global population increases"
Err? The collective heat of 7 billion humans is warming the planet?

Yes, there are 504 billion KG's of humans radiating 98.6 deg F, but other than that we have other anthropogenic forcings from humans that differ from burning fosil fuels. I live in a box that I like to call a house that I heat to roughly 68 deg F. Aside from the fossil fuels burned to heat the house, that box radiates heat if it's colder outside than inside. The car that I drive radiates heat after I turn it off. Someone in a third world country may clear land for his box and while he might the burn wood which really isn't a fossil fuel to heat his box, he is emiting Carbon and radiating heat. He might decide to domesticate animals for food which would cause an increase in those heat radiators as well. Lets say that we can come up with sum magic carbon-free energy to heat our boxes. They will still be hot and will still radiate heat.


"orbital varibility"
Negative forcing at this time.

Wrong! 

An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? A. Berger and M. F. Loutre

Today's comparatively warm climate has been the exception more than the rule during the last 500,000 years or more. If recent warm periods (or interglacials) are a guide, then we may soon slip into another glacial period. But Berger and Loutre argue in their Perspective that with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.

"cosmic radation"
Already explained

As I said before, CERN disagrees

 "Thank you for admitting that you don't know."
Whatever. In your mind, if we don't know everything with 100% certainty (impossible in science) it means that we know nothing.

Maybe it's because of the fact that you keep saying that these factors can be ruled out with absolute certainty?

 "But half of the century was below normal according to your graph! Are you claiming that warming from below normal is part of the anomaly? It's hard enough to take 0.5 deg above normal as an anomaly at all! Now your challenging regression to the mean?"
Oh dear. Roughly half of the century was below the 1961-1990 average. This is the warmest decade on 150 years of instrumental record. This decade is warmer than the 90s (even counting the super El Niño) which were warmer than the 80s, which were warmer than the 70s.
For the nth time: a long-tern warming (or cooling) trend doesn't end natural, day-to-day, year-to-year variability.

You do know what an interglacial is don't you? We are in one right now. It keeps getting warmer until it starts getting colder again. And for the nth time long term is not 50 years  on a global climatic scale nor is the 150 years of instrumental records. Considering the highest solar activity on record for the same time frame and the fact that we are still warming from the Little Ice Age and it's safe to say that we are still in the realm of naturally occurring climate.

 "They only seem to measure them enough to say that they looked and are dismissing the data."
Evidence? If they're dismissing the data, why aren't other scientists collecting their own data about natural forcings and falsifying the "alarmists"?

They do, but the alarmist manual says to simply dismiss them as nuts.

"I am accusing the IPCC of doing exactly that and so are 31,000 scientists."
Ohh, the Oregon Petition [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] I'm terrified. A fraudulent petition and a review of climatology published in a journal of medicine (which, by the way, is a hotbed of crackpots)

Does this remind you of anything? Like the sentence that I posted above?

 "What about the more recent past? Was the medieval period warmer or cooler than it is now? Carefull how you answer."
- There's no evidence supporting the assertion that the so-called MWP was a global, simultaneous phenomenon.
- There's little evidence supporting the assertion that the hottest temperatures of the MWP were as warm or warmer than current temperatures.

Try looking here

 "I laughed out loud when I read that one!"
(¿?) Do you suggest that we have a higher number of quality proxies with high temporal resolution covering the deep past?

No I suggest data that is unmanipuated by Mann and confirmed by his 3 buddies going back at least through the MWP. It's the accuracy thing that really made me laugh out loud! What Mann, Jones and others didn't manipulate by hand, Harry the programmer smoothed out behind the scenes.

"Uhm, civilization has been around a lot longer than 1000 years."
Civilization started in the Holocene. It's at best 10,000 years old. We're now leaving the comfort zone of the Holocene climate.

Only according to that cherry picked time-frame with the manipulated data.

 "I must have missed the part of that article, where they explained how we could have 10 times the amount of Carbon that we do now in an Ice Age."
Nothing new and it doesn't change the big picture: atmospheric CO2 is the main knob of the Earth's climate and the weathering of silicate rock is the main thermostat.

But the faint young sun hasn't been around for every ice age and we have had higher carbon levels than we do now.  Nature can put far more Carbon into the atmosphere than man can at any time that it wants to.

"But I thought everything about natural forcings was completely understood?"
Straw man. We don't know everything with high certainty but we know enough to make accurate predictions and explain diverse phenomena. Ongoing research will perfect our knowledge.

Hopefully you can see my confusion here. On one hand I'm told that you know enough about a forcing to dismiss it, then when I prompt you on something as simple as the sun, you tell me that some data shows a small positive effect and some data shows a negative effect. This means that we really don't know what the effect is, but we are ruling it out anyway. Then I get the "We are all in agreement!" thing. When I post about people who disagree I get the statement that they are "Whack-jobs, crackpots, etc..."

"Could the scientists be fallible after all?"
They're fallible like everyone else. That said, the scientific process weeds out bad data and flawed hypothesis so we get closer and closer to the truth.

Well since these particular scientists are asking me for trillions of dollars that we don't have to begin with, I'd like to see them a little farther along in that process before I commit the money.

"Don't let the pro GW guys hear you say that or they will be coming after you with pitchforks!"
I don't care about what the pro-GW or anti-GW say/think/do, I care about the evidence and the evidence is clear.

Is it as clear as the positive or negative effect of the sun?


 

 

 

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#16) On December 22, 2009 at 6:30 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

Richard Alley's presentation to the AGU fall meeting is now on-line. Worth every second of your time.

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#17) On December 22, 2009 at 10:55 PM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

It's a pretty good presentation, but it seems like he was pressed for time and he glossed over a lot of important stuff in the essence of time.

He was very good at side-stepping carbon forcing though and instead concentrated on the association of carbon with warming, which I happen to agree with. That's a good choice, at least in my eyes, because I do see the same relationship. He freely admits the carbon isn't usually the initial forcing which is refreshing. I've read a couple of his papers before, and I've felt the same way I did after watching the presentation. I feel like he has a lot more info inside his head than he is sharing with the rest of us. It always seems like he's paraphrasing.

Overall, he was better than most of the other carbon alarmists that I've seen.

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#18) On December 23, 2009 at 5:14 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"It's a pretty good presentation, but it seems like he was pressed for time and he glossed over a lot of important stuff in the essence of time."
He didn't miss important stuff. He presented cutting-edge research which provides more evidence supporting the hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 is the main driver (as a forcing or as a feedback) of climate change. He addressed fellow scientists who are well aware of the "missing facts" you point to.

"He freely admits the carbon isn't usually the initial forcing which is refreshing."
What is refreshing? He pointed out what everyone in the field knows: CO2 is a forcing or a feedback to another forcing. Free feel to look over my posts and you'll see the same. Example: the ice ages in the Quaternary where orbital forcing acts as the pacemaker and CO2 delivers the biggest amount of warming.

"I feel like he has a lot more info inside his head than he is sharing with the rest of us."
Ohh, those secretive scientists and their shady plans.

"Overall, he was better than most of the other carbon alarmists that I've seen."
Thanks for the laugh. Alley presented the mainstream views on the carbon cycle, the CO2-temperature relationship and the magnitude of climate sensitivity (3 ºC per doubling of CO2, a bit more if you consider slow feedbacks) which is "alarmist" in your view.


Two more lectures:
- Water, Weather, and Climate in Our Future: What Can We Know? By John C Schaake, NOAA/National Weather Service (retired)
- Arctic Hydrology and the Role of Feedbacks in the Climate System, by Larry D. Hinzman, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

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#19) On December 24, 2009 at 10:50 PM, ChrisGraley (29.92) wrote:

Whoa! Hang on there lucas! I would hate to see what you would have posted if I didn't like the guy!

He did gloss over a lot of important stuff, but he wasn't trying to hide it. He admits in the beginning that he is short on time. Watch the presentation again and pay attention to his slides. he tries hard to say a blurb about each bullet point, but there are a couple of slides he doesn't talk about at all. You can tell that he prepared for a much longer presentation than the time he was allotted. (Not his fault)

Oh please lucas! Carbon is your only forcing! 

Me - What about the Sun?

You - Oh we ruled that out with abosulute certainty!

Me - I show that it is having a large positive effect.

You - We show that it has a negative effect which might be a very small positive effect, but we ruled it out anyway. The Sun really is n't important anyway! We are talking about the Earth getting warm and what could the Sun possibly have to do with that?

As far as the info inside his head, that was actually a compliment. It's pretty obvious at least to me that he has a pretty good grip on the climate process. I wish he could have shared more info from the standpoint of his experiences. It's clear that he was pressed for time though. I didn't see any hidden agenda with him. I was actually hoping that he would open up more than Mann, Jones, Briffa, etc... Those scientists do have a hidden agenda. He wasn't hiding anything, he was just pressed for time.

Lastly, I'm glad that you got a chuckle about me liking Alley. I'm pretty sure that the last thing I heard from him was 2 deg C for doubling and not 3 deg, but I might be wrong on that.

I'm gonna really rock your boat now lucas. I'm gonna postulate that Carbon is not a cause of warming, but an effect of warming. In my opinion, the thing that carbon does really well is that it delays cooling. I'm doing this now because it's Christmas and I really wanted to give you a gift.

Despite my disagreement, I've clicked on every link that you've posted on on my blog. I can't claim to be open minded if I didn't click on each and every one of them. I complained about the amount of links, but I clicked each one because any one of those links could have changed my opinion.

When David posted on my blog, you dismissed all 450 links without really looking at any of them. I would ask that at a minimum, you would at least understand his point of view. You don't have to agree, but you should still research it. Im betting that his warming opinion is pretty close to mine. I'd like to think that when I've posted a link here, you've at least looked at it before dismissing it.

In any case lucas, I wish you a Merry Christmas. 

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#20) On December 25, 2009 at 5:28 PM, lucas1985 (< 20) wrote:

@ChrisGraley,
"He did gloss over a lot of important stuff"
For example?

"Watch the presentation again and pay attention to his slides."
Also pay attention to his speech.

"he tries hard to say a blurb about each bullet point, but there are a couple of slides he doesn't talk about at all."
Because some slides are supportive of earlier points, they don't need separate discussion.

"Oh please lucas! Carbon is your only forcing!"

My earlier post:
"Example: the ice ages in the Quaternary where orbital forcing acts as the pacemaker and CO2 delivers the biggest amount of warming."

"Me - What about the Sun?
You - Oh we ruled that out with abosulute certainty!"

Misrepresentation. Everywhere in this board I talk about probabilistic thinking and how we can't have 100 % certainty in science, specially in complex and chaotic fields such as climatology. Learn to deal with uncertainty.

"Me - I show that it is having a large positive effect."

Yup ::). There's an order of magnitude of difference between the solar forcing (0.2 W/m2) and the net anthropogenic forcing (approx 1.5 W/m2), therefore we can conclude that both are equal in their importance.


"You - We show that it has a negative effect which might be a very small positive effect, but we ruled it out anyway."

Misrepresentation. I said (in other words) that lot of papers using different datasets of solar activity and solar irradiance and different statistical tools can't find any significant contribution of solar forcing to the recent warming. If your mind can't hold contradictory ideas (negative forcing, small positive forcing) at the same time, you are in trouble.

"what could the Sun possibly have to do with that?"

Rhetorical trick. Please show the evidence where I dismiss the role of the sun on the climate.

"I was actually hoping that he would open up more than Mann, Jones, Briffa, etc..."
More open in what sense?

"Those scientists do have a hidden agenda."
- Where's the evidence of this hidden agenda?
- What's this hidden agenda?
- Why didn't other scientists denounce them as being agenda-driven?

"I'm pretty sure that the last thing I heard from him was 2 deg C for doubling and not 3 deg, but I might be wrong on that."

You're wrong on that. Watch the part when he explains that extreme climate sensitivities can't reproduce the paleo evidence and how the consensus climate sensitivity (approx 3 ºC for each doubling of CO2) fits fairly well Earth's climate history, from the recent glacial-interglacial cycles to the deep past.

"I'm gonna postulate that Carbon is not a cause of warming, but an effect of warming."
Yup, carbon is a feedback but it's also a forcing. Are you going to deny radiative physics?

"In my opinion, the thing that carbon does really well is that it delays cooling."
(¿?)
I'm intrigued to know how your hypothesis fits the following facts:
- Ocean acidification.
- Stratospheric cooling (beyond the one caused by ozone depletion) and falling of the ionosphere.
- Abrupt change in the isotopic ratio of oceanic and atmospheric carbon after the start of the Industrial Revolution.
- Decreasing emission of long-wave radiation at the exact absorption spectrum of CO2.
- Polar amplification.
- The warmest decade on 150 years of instrumental record.
- The deepest solar minimum in a century.
- Worldwide retreat of the cryosphere.

"Despite my disagreement, I've clicked on every link that you've posted on on my blog. I can't claim to be open minded if I didn't click on each and every one of them. I complained about the amount of links, but I clicked each one because any one of those links could have changed my opinion."
I congratulate you if you indeed read every link I've posted. However I'm going to suggest something even better: if you're American and live within driving/public transport distance of a college with an Earth science department go there and ask any questions. I'm sure a geophysics/meteorology/climatology professor can dissipate any doubts and help you to see the big picture.

"When David posted on my blog, you dismissed all 450 links without really looking at any of them. I would ask that at a minimum, you would at least understand his point of view. You don't have to agree, but you should still research it."
David didn't post anything new. For those of us who have some experience in the global warming "debate", these tricks are nothing new. This list of 450 papers is poorly constructed:
- Kooky papers (do you believe that the Sun is a ball of iron and a plasma diffuser and not a giant fusion reactor?)
- Refuted/flawed papers (many papers by Spencer/Christy and Svensmark fit this criteria)
- Papers in E&E, a non peer-reviewed social science (i.e. not Earth science) journal with a political agenda.
- Papers not really skeptical of AGW/ACC such as the ones published by Pielke Sr and Pielke Jr (who demanded that both his papers and his father's papers be retired from this list) and the Nature Geoscience paper about the PETM.
- Old papers. Really old papers are likely to be refuted/refined by more recent papers.
- Mutually exclusive papers. If paper A is correct, then papers B and C are flawed.

Do you want to know what happened the last time a denialist compiled a list against the ACC consensus? It was throughly debunked and the unethical activities of denialists were exposed.

"In any case lucas, I wish you a Merry Christmas"
I also wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

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