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+749 Points Today! Ron Paul & Marc Faber on 23 Jul 06. "You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When...."

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July 24, 2008 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: SCC , SRS

Today abitarecatania climbed to #6 in overall points. I am not sure if there is a more sucessful point chaser given the 12 month time frame in CAPS. abitarePERFECT up 800 points today is working on the accuracy abitarecatania lacks.

For the record I think there will be a lot money made/transfered here in the next couple years, as the US reaches a unique point in its history. I think it is very important you pay attention to the geo-political issues, which are driving much of the market today. Many believe FED credit expansion and FED credit contraction caused the Great Depression. It seems we are in the same enviroment, throw in a possible war with Iran and you a sizable financial storm building. Obama  is in Israel. He appeared in the front page of the FT his statement "the world must prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons". I think you had better prepare yourself financially for what he is implying. Iran is not Iraq. The Straits of Hormuz will be closed in the event of a war. Oil may reach $200-400 a barrel. How is that Long position in __________  going to hold up with $10-20 a gallon gas?

Intrade has its predictions for war here: http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true 

Barack Obama Speaking to AIPAC. George Galloways throws in Comments:

Here is some wisdom worth listening to: 

Ron Paul Discusses the Housing Bill 7/23/08 

 

Marc Faber: Fannie, Freddie Should Not Get Aid - P1

 

Marc Faber: Fannie, Freddie Should Not Get Aid - P2 

 

Mish Shedlock has had two great posts worth reading also:

You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When....

"1. Paulson appears on Face The Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system was safe and sound, everyone would know it (or at least think it). There would be no need to say it.

2. Paulson says the list of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation". The reality is there are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac was not one of them until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?

3. In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.

4. Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier's checks. The irony is it makes no sense for customers to pull insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. The second irony is the last place one would want to put those funds would be Washington Mutual. Eventually Washington Mutual decided it would take those checks but with an 8 week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?

5. Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after he said "Financial Institutions Must Be Allowed To Fail". Obviously Paulson is reporting from the 5th dimension. In some alternate universe, his statements just might make sense.

6. Former Fed Governor William Poole says "Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Makes Them Insolvent".

7. Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?"

The list goes to 25, it is worth reading. here

UN Inspector Scott Ritter: Fools would Bomb Iran

Faux News on Iran

 

FYI-Gary Noth has some free posts worth reading here:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north-arch.html

1. Iran’s Pre-Emptive StrikeA Worst-Case

2. Scenario for Obama (and Us)

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 24, 2008 at 7:45 PM, DemonDoug (77.37) wrote:

A possible Iranian strike and subsequent blockade is why I give it a 1% chance of oil going to 500/bbl by 2010.

Otherwise we are guaranteed 200/bbl by 2010.  You can put it in the book and invest accordingly.

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#2) On July 24, 2008 at 11:21 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Oh Aba, There are times I just want to go away to a island some where. I am so angry and yet I must forgive them and call for divine intervention.    Obama saying he would attack terrorists in Pakistan      http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=73474&t=01006952843786714939 Will he embrace Iran and hit Pakistan? .Bush Family Engineered Hitler's & Bin Laden's Rise to Power        Just some interresting facts.   Bush family tree.   Obama related to bush and chaney. Mc Cain related to Laura bush. Brad Pit to bush and brad pit. Clinton to Jolie. Other big-name ancestors
Harrison says the search through family trees also turned up other big-name ancestors of Kerry and Bush. Playboy founder Hugh Hefner is the president's ninth cousin, twice removed, while Kerry can count Johnny Appleseed as his sixth cousin, six times removed. Both the president and the Massachusetts senator can claim ties to figures ranging from Charlemagne to Walt Disney to Marilyn Monroe.Obama's Family Tree Has A Few Surprises Bush, Cheney, Truman Are All Distant RelativesHis paternal grandfather, Hussein Onyango Obama, bragged of chasing away leopards during a two-week trek to Nairobi during colonial rule in Kenya. But -- to his grandson's dismay -- he also worked for white oppressors, first supervising road crews and then working in a white man's home.

While Obama's relatives managed to escape ever being enslaved, many did own slaves themselves, a revelation that his campaign has responded to by saying his ancestors "are representative of America."      Ron Paul : Don't tread on me      Well let me go cry and pray. What else can one do?

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#3) On July 25, 2008 at 7:40 AM, Gemini846 (57.52) wrote:

Good stuff. Not to diminish your acheivement, but didn't you slide off 1500 or so last week (since we all tanked pretty much)?

My cousin just got back from a Ron Paul Liberty rally in DC. I haven't called him yet, but I'm interested to know what they did.

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#4) On July 25, 2008 at 10:42 AM, dwot (69.85) wrote:

Who hoo 800 points!

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#5) On July 25, 2008 at 1:29 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

ALCON,

Thanks for the replies.

DemonDoug 

As you can tell, I think the greater escalation with Iran is the #1 issue you should address before investing. $500 PBL, not out of the equation.

lquadland10,

That bottom Ron Paul video is one of the best. Going off to island? Wouldn't that be great....

Gemini846,

Yep, I fell, but 700 point rally is my record one. 

 

 

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#6) On July 25, 2008 at 1:38 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

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#7) On July 25, 2008 at 1:52 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

 lquadland10,

" If you are not living in a war torn, drought ridden, famine experiencing country you should consider yourself lucky and be thankful every day."

dwot,

It is my record points rally.... :) 

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#8) On July 25, 2008 at 2:04 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

Bush or Batman

 

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#9) On July 25, 2008 at 6:01 PM, Tastylunch (29.20) wrote:

congrats you are en fuego!

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#10) On July 25, 2008 at 6:10 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

Tastylunch,

Thank you. I should point out. One time I post my score last Oct 07? I went from 4000 to 2000 in six weeks. fuego to mucho frio! 

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#11) On July 26, 2008 at 7:47 AM, feiled (26.47) wrote:

The swings in CAPS have just been crazy!  Congrats!

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#12) On July 26, 2008 at 10:53 AM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

Tastylunch,

Thank you. I should point out. One time I post my score last Oct 07? I went from 4000 to 2000 in six weeks. fuego to mucho frio! 

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#13) On July 27, 2008 at 12:04 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Dear Aba, I count my blessings every day and thank god that I don't live in some of those places. I have been to the Amazon Jungle and seen just some of the poverty that is there. The reason I cry is because I can't do more. I disdain the World Bank they should not charge intress. and I by pass that with macro loans,feed the children and Care.It has not changed since I was seven and grew up with these type of pictures only the faces have changed and now I can do a little something about this.  That is what makes me so angry and the fact that Our Government is wasting Trillions on what? Plant a garden. Oh and in the house bill that passed the IRS will have access to everyones credit card transactions if the sennet passes it. Got to wonder why the senet wants to fast tract this bill without debate. Oh the house passed a bill so without looking at it popisy just wants to ram it through. Congrants on your points someday I will be a good trader. Now can you pick out a good stock for me so I can get the little gavel. Fool on my friend.

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#14) On July 27, 2008 at 1:42 AM, McNabRanch (< 20) wrote:

Not to put anyone down, but do you any of the top rated folks here play this game with much real money? I do, more than willing to admit I'm a beginner, but still I certainly don't have the time to put together pages of caps picks worthy of a funds manager. Still, I respect your knowledge and opinions, and learn a lot, which is why I signed up to be a fool. BTW, I hold a lot of SIRI.....what's gonna happen next with that thing?

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#15) On July 27, 2008 at 1:44 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

McNabRanch,

Welcome to CAPS. Thanks for the comment.  

do you any of the top rated folks here play this game with much real money? 

How do you define "much real money"? Many Top Players do trade for a living. I think Tenmile, Everydayinvestor, EPSMomentum etc.... Most of my money is in real estate. Stocks to augment my income.  

I should point out that my CAPS account orginated as a watch list of stocks. I did not intend to "play CAPS".

My CAPS portfolio is 200ish stocks (it is a watch list). My real portfolio is 2-6 stocks at anyone time taken from my watch list. I buy when I am near 100% sure I am right on a position. I would never feel the need to ask anyone advice about a postion once I have made the purchase, because I have done the research and know better then most what to expect.

As you might have noticed, many of the Top Players are Bears. I am bearish on everything, including oil (at this moment in time) . In a Bear market 80% of stocks will decline. Why would I try and wager on the 20% will be? Better to hold cash or go short. I am short the US market.

I wrote of predications on 30 Dec 07. You can take a look. Here is a summary:

2) S&P500 falls 25% from its 2007 high to 1182

4) USDSGD falls to 1.4000, but then rises back to 1.6000 (now 1.6000)

6) At least three of the largest 10 US homebuilders will go bankrupt

7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer

8) Grain Prices to double – again!

9) World oil prices accelerate to $175

10) UK growth turns negative

To your question:

"SIRI.....what's gonna happen next with that thing?"

You should be telling me, you "hold a lot". 

1. Look at that chart/trend: Steady down http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SIRI#chart2:symbol=siri;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

2. Down 5% in the after hours. Down 7% Friday.

3. The US market is heading lower IMO

4. P/E = N/A?

5.  Div & Yield = N/A

6. EPS = --.36 (Negative)

7. Market CAP = $3.3 Billion?

8. Ten year history, low is $0.47

This stock is highly speculative. Why did you buy it? Why hold a lot of it?

I think the overall market is going lower, as credit contracts and people no longer can uses their ATMs (their homes) for cash.

Plus high commodities, high levels of bank insolvency and looming greater war will push the market lower. 

Do I think SIRI is going to be in the 20% that do not decline. Why would anyone think that? Look at the trend?

Plus the stock is highly promoted/discussed on CNBC, which is a big negative IMO. CNBC trys to attact "dumb money" to positions to allow "smart money" unload, just my opinion.  

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#16) On July 27, 2008 at 1:51 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

McNabRanch,

Your portfolio is a case in point of bear market. You have some good companies, but it does not matter in a bear market, because 80% will decline.  

FYI - I also have a portfolio on updown.com 

 

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