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moneymcbags (< 20)

8/19/10 Midnight Report: No work and no pay makes the market a dull buy

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August 19, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: WGO , GM , SPLS

Look out belowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww as the market is falling faster than Eliot Spitzer's pants at the Mayflower hotel.  Investors have finally decided to ignore the marginally good earnings data this quarter which was a lot of bottom line growth with weak toplines and instead pay some attention to macro data which is trending worse than Club Muzique's rating among Chubby Chaser's members (and yes, Money McBags had to do way too much heavy lifting for that joke with not much payoff, but it is what it is).

 

The big news today was that new claims for unemployment were out and were unsurprisingly worse than analyst guesses (though obviously they were surprising to analysts who made those bad guesses, but Money McBags has discounted analyst/economist models moreso than he has discounted Bernie Madoff's advice on investing, Roger Clemens' advice on testifying in front of congress, or Antonio Cromartie's advice on how to practice safe sex).  Analysts predicted that claims would fall by 8k but instead they rose by 12k (or 16k if you are using the ANNOUNCED f*cking number from last week before it was UPWARDLY revised again) since apparently there is no "common sense" function in Microsoft Excel's data pack.  Overall, new claims rose to an even 500k, that is until next week when they are once again revised up in the "hold the shock and hope for no awe strategy" which appears to be backfiring worse than abstinence speeches in Alaskan high schools.  Look, it doesn't take Nostraf*ckingdamus to see that things are getting worse now that the stimulus money has left the economy and the job market remains more touch and go than a dancer at Rick's Cabaret.  Things are getting bad enough that Money McBags predicts a new stimulus package to be announced in the next several months since no politician wants the economy to die on their watch (except for maybe Herbert Hoover and look how that wound up for him).

 

In other macro news, the Philly Fed announced that manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region fell by 7.7% dropping to its lowest level in a year and reaffirming Philadelphia as the Detroit of the East Coast, or the "Armpit of America" if you will.  Analysts guessed that the index would rise by 7% so their guess was better than usual as they were only off by a f*cking "-" sign.  When asked to explain the drop, the Philly Fed spokesman said "Hey, it's Philly.  Anything produced here is going to get stolen anyway so it's a huge deterrent to businesses."  And it wasn't just Philly that showed the economy heading down faster than Jillian Grace on a casting couch, but the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators showed that the only place economic indicators are leading us is in to the sh*tter.  The index was up .1% in July, and was 50% below analyst guesses (see how Money McBags says 50% below to make it seem worse than it was?), as half of the indicators declined including building permits, the money supply, and hope.

 

Finally, the Congressional Budget Office was out today with a revised budget deficit claiming the deficit will now only be $1.34T instead of $1.35T in 2010 as the White House finally hired a plumber to fix the toilets from constantly running.  While that might sound like moderately good news (like learning your rectal bleeding is the result of anal warts and not colon cancer), Money McBags doesn't believe anything the head of the CBO, Douglas Elmendorf, says because Money McBags doesn't trust anyone with a beard.  While the deficit may be a nut hair lower this year, next year's estimate was revised...READ MORE...

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 20, 2010 at 1:58 AM, SCBergman (32.70) wrote:

you are funny

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#2) On August 20, 2010 at 3:48 AM, rhweimer (< 20) wrote:

Scott Grannis over at scottgrannis.blogspot.com has a good take on the unemployment number.

"The story behind today's unexpected rise in claims to 500K is that actual claims didn't fall by as much as the seasonal factors expected. Yes, in the most recent reporting period, claims actually FELL by 22,600, whereas the reported number (seasonally adjusted) showed a rise of 16,000.

I have never believed that week-to-week changes in unemployment claims hold any significant information content, because for one, claims are subject to the vagaries of seasonality and faulty seasonal adjustment factors, and two, the economy rarely changes on a dime, from one week to the next."

Makes sense as the current recession has probably blown previous seasonal adjustment models.  Best to go with the raw data for a while IMHO.

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#3) On August 20, 2010 at 6:16 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I remember watching the Cromartie bit.  He has 4 kids that are 3 or about to turn 3.  Hmm...

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#4) On August 20, 2010 at 2:24 PM, Option1307 (30.26) wrote:

That Facebook thing is hilarious, well not hilarious for you, but the emails are absolutely ridiculous!

For those who haven't seen it yet, take 5 minutes and read it here. Well worth your Friday afternoon!

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