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alstry (35.42)

9.09 & 40% UNEMPLOYMENT IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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August 31, 2009 – Comments (22)

Nobody said the world is coming to an end...America is just broke.

We are running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit.....and much of that is being used to prop up the economy.

We use that $2 Trillion to support 100,000,000 Americans on Welfare, Medicare, Unemployment, Food Stamps etc.....without that defict, many have no alternative source of income.

Then there are the 40-50,000 million Americans who work directly for the government or indirectly....they too depend on that $2 Trillion dollar deficit to for income.

Adding it up, about half the population depends on Government spending for income....and Government can't afford to pay them. 

The $2 Trillion dollar problem is a cash flow issue and not balance sheet....that means just to sustain things just the way they are, we must come up with $2 Trillion dollars each year...year after year.

But as layoffs continue, commercial real estate prices crash, business shut down, the tax receipts to government will continue evaporating.

Evaporating tax receipts are the key....because that means the GAP gets wider and wider and wider...and the more the government cuts....the lower tax receipts go creating a vicious cycle of cutting causing slowing and slowing causing cutting.

Again, it is not the end of the world...but there is no doubt we are broke and nobody has enough money to fill the gap.

If we continue down the same road, banks will tighen further, interest rates will rise and commercial real estate will evaporate in value as tenants will fail and vacate quicker than you will know what happened.

Some think that a 16% unemployment rate is high...but if you add in all those who are not working and on the the government dole...we are now closer to 40%....simply an unsustainable number.

And the strange part is the cutting has really just begun:

Bing said the DDOT cuts will be part of an overall 10% reduction in the city’s workforce he must make to keep the city afloat.

Bing said he will announce the changes Sept. 10, and they will go into effect Sept. 26. Last week, Bing backed off making cuts to DDOT and recalled 113 bus driver layoff notices after Detroiters protested during four days of public hearings.

“These are not going to be temporary layoffs — I’ve got to reduce the workforce in the city of Detroit,” Bing said. “We can’t afford to carry 13,000 employees. We don’t have the money to do that.”

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

What is Benny Bin Laden Planning?

He knows that revenues are collapsing.

He knows that job losses are increasing.

He knows that wages are collapsing.

He knows that tax receipts are evaporating.

He knows that banks are tightening credit to the private sector.

Collectively, the above account for over 90% of the economy.

KNOWING all of the above, he must KNOW that there is mathematically NO CHANCE FOR the economy to be turning around.

Do you think he might KNOW something that might relieve him from accountiblity from the above?

We are getting real close to 9.09 as the anger level rises.

State workers often get caught in the political cross hairs.

Not only are they stereotyped as lazy or incompetent, but because they are paid by taxpayers, their fates become the subject of public debate. When O'Malley sought suggestions from the public for how to cut the budget, respondents repeatedly called for pay cuts or layoffs for state employees.

One respondent wrote: "Lay off the Lieutenant Gov. Don't know him, probably a nice guy, but what does he do? Lay off 1,000 of the employees who make over $100K. Lay off 20 percent of all state employees."

Even after O'Malley's cost-cutting, some political observers say the state work force is still too bloated. They note that Maryland lost 50,000 private-sector jobs in the last year, while state government added about 1,000, according to labor statistics.

"You could probably cut the state work force by 15 percent and no one would even notice," said Christopher Summers, president of the conservative-leaning Maryland Public Policy Institute.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bal-md.furloughs31aug31,0,3151845.story

As private sector workers are getting fired at 50X the rate as public workers...you are starting to see the anger perculate as higher taxes will suffocate the economy.

When many are broke and only giving money to your friends....the outrage can be shocking when the masses finally realize what is happening.

 

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#2) On August 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

looks like a market top, i dumped most os mt stocks, starting to short - will get back in after the correction

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#3) On August 31, 2009 at 10:29 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

The Battle Lines are Being Drawn:

As the Wall Street bankers destroy the private economy by tightening credit and raising rates....more and more Americans will realize that government is taking over their life, liberty and maybe more just to maintain itself. 

From the WSJ:

Growing Government Role Fuels Anger

We are now here....most are dependent on the government to survive...but the government depends on you in its current form......soon a choice will have to be made.

Either you or government in its current form.

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#4) On August 31, 2009 at 10:41 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

PRIVATE SECTOR BEGGING FOR PAYCUTS

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Finding work in this recession takes determination, perseverance and, most of all, sacrifice.

With unemployment as high as 9.4% and job prospects scarce, job seekers are willing to accept as little as half of what they were making before, if it means finding a job.

In a recent survey, 65% of out-of-work respondents reported willingness to accept wages up to 30% lower than their previous compensation. And, 3% and 4%, respectively, said they would accept up to 40% and 50% of prior wages, according to the 2009 Annual Career Fair Survey released by Next Steps Career Solutions.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/28/news/economy/paycuts/index.htm?postversion=2009083113

Over 70% willing to take paycuts between 30-50%. 

Soon you too will realize that it is not the end of the world....simply that America is broke and the longer we take to restructure....the more destruction will result.

oops I forgot...the economic terrorist Benny Bin Laden tells us that the recession is over as he allows his taxpayer bailed out banker buddies to raise interest rates on taxpayers and shut the private economy down.

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#5) On August 31, 2009 at 11:09 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

STATES STILL REFUSE TO ACCEPT REALITY

After more than a week of closed-door negotiations, the Assembly this afternoon approved a pared-down plan for cutting prison spending.

Assembly Democrats mustered the bare minimum majority vote for the measure, and it passed 41-35. It remains at odds with a measure passed by the Senate and supported by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger..

The plan, coupled with gubernatorial actions, would reduce prison spending by about $1 billion, roughly $220 million less than the amount required under the deal reached in July to cure the state's massive budget shortfall.

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2151353.html

Maybe that $220 million required will magically disappear?

It looks like lots more cutting ahead.....if everyone is cutting and cutting and cutting....how can Benny B or any banker economist forecast things are improving????  especially when they are the one's forcing and overseeing the cutting.

 

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#6) On August 31, 2009 at 11:27 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"Over 70% willing to take paycuts between 30-50%"

What a joke! 

Why is this survey such a bad thing?

The answer is IT"S NOT a bad thing.

Although you've twisted the data to make it look worse than it really is,  the logical conclusion is that people would rather be working than not.  And it's about time.... after years of putting our noses up at lower paying work and leaving it illegal immigrants, jobless people these days may be waking up to the reality of what has happened to this country because of our own complacency.

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#7) On August 31, 2009 at 11:29 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

KANNAPOLIS — As many as six people working for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill at the N.C. Research Campus could lose their jobs due to a $1.1 million budget cut.

http://www.salisburypost.com/Area/083109-WEB-UNC-may-lay-off-six-at-Research-Campus-after-budget-cuts

Not a big deal right....whoa baby.....

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – UNC President Erskine Bowles gathered the chancellors from all 17 system colleges in his Chapel Hill headquarters Monday to talk tough about cutting costs.

He wanted them to know he means business when it comes to reducing their bottom line – starting by cutting the fat from the top in the form of about 900 administrative jobs.

http://news14.com/content/local_news/triangle/614032/bowles-instructs-chancellors-to-cut-costs--about-900-jobs/

These are just a couple of the reported cuts at UNC....as the cutting keeps deepening at colleges and universities across  America.

Cites, Counties, Colleges....all slashing workers at unprecedented rates.  These workers are taxpayers and customers.

Alstrynomics estimates at least 5 to 10 million government, university and health care workers will lose their jobs over the next year.  We can already count hundreds of thousands in California alone.

And Benny Bin Laden tells us things are getting better.....what does he know?

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#8) On August 31, 2009 at 11:36 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Why is this survey such a bad thing?

The answer is IT"S NOT a bad thing.

Although you've twisted the data to make it look worse than it really is,  the logical conclusion is that people would rather be working than not.

BINGO...But this is no longer about the people......as people earn less they can no longer afford to service their debt and default driving down the value of assets.....in addition theypay less in taxes.....but government needs MORE taxes.

This is Benny Bin Laden's Zombulator plan....as the private economy is destroyed and can't support government, then Benny B. and Timmy the Torturer will need to take more from you simply to keep the system going.

Why else do you think their banker buddies are raising  interest rates....to create even more defaults silly.

With enough defaults, there is nothing left but for the government and bankers to take all.

Welcome to 9.09.....where the citizens finally learn what is going on and get angry.......really really angry.

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#9) On August 31, 2009 at 11:44 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"And Benny Bin Laden tells us things are getting better.....what does he know?"

He must know something you don't.  Up until now, he's been right and you've been horribly wrong.  Admittedly, I'm in awe of how the economy seems to be like a dream for me right now.  Crowded restaurants, sold out cruise ships, Men's Wearhouse up 3% over the last year with employees having gotten bonuses the last 4 quarters.  Took a nice severance from my last job in May (along with a few hundred other employees), landed a 3 year contract making 30% more.  I'll take this life over anything you claim is currently happening.  It's real.  You're not.

I'm talking about real life.  My real life.  I've yet to see more than 3 other fools here explain how bad this economy as affected them...one of them is SolarisKing, whom I wish the best duing these times... if there are any others I'd like to hear what they are seeing.

In fact, I'd love to hear from other fools about how life around them is actually fairing these days.  What I stated above is what I'm seeing.  I'm not saying it applys to the entire country, but I'm saying that I'm not really "pickin' up what Alstry[comical] is puttin' down"  

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#10) On August 31, 2009 at 11:45 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

IS WAR BENNY'S DISTRACTION AND OUT???????

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. and its allies need to change course in Afghanistan to salvage the faltering war effort and prevent the Taliban from extending their recent gains, the top American commander in Afghanistan warned in a highly anticipated strategic assessment.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal issued a long-awaited security assessment on Afghanistan, noting the Taliban's growing strength and signaling the current U.S. approach is not working. WSJ's Yochi Dreazen reports.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal said conditions on the ground were "serious," but he expressed confidence the war could still be won if the U.S. and its allies better coordinate their efforts and focus more heavily on protecting the Afghan populace from Taliban violence and intimidation.

The grim report will fuel the growing political debate over whether to send additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan. Gen. McChrystal is considering asking the Obama administration for as many as eight brigades of reinforcements, or roughly 40,000 new troops, according to two senior defense officials familiar with his thinking.

THINK OF ALL THE SACRIFICES WE COULD BE ASKED  TO MAKE DURING WAR...GIVE UP PENSIONS, SOCIAL SECURITY, 401KS, IRAS.....AND NOT MIND DOING OUR PATRIOTIC DUTY.

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#11) On August 31, 2009 at 11:49 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

jd,

Soon you will learn government is out of money.....and they will be knocking.....let's see how much they want?

Why do you think Benny is being so nice to you....just like the farmer is to the turkey before Thanksgiving.

Tax receipts are evaporating....and tax receipts NEVER LIE!!!!!!

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#12) On August 31, 2009 at 11:56 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

jd,

This is what Benny Bin Laden's Zombulator is doing to our private economy....cheer it on if you like....lots are already hurting....and the Zombulator is about to hurt a lot more!!!!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Most small businesses are having trouble finding loans and credit lines these days, but auto dealers are in their own special financing hell. Their inventory is expensive, their industry is in shambles, and their largest lenders are in tatters.

"There's been no progress in freeing up credit," says Scott Gorden, principal in charge of dealerships at LarsonAllen, a Minneapolis-based accounting firm that works with 600 dealers across the country "Far and away, it's still the biggest issue faced by dealerships today. If you cut credit to them, they'll be closing. If they can't get the floor plan financing, they will shut down."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/31/smallbusiness/auto_dealers_sba_loans.smb/index.htm?postversion=2009083111

Businesses are shutting down all across the country as we bail out Wall Street and Wall Street cuts off mainstreet.

Keep believing Benny B....I will believe the businessman.

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#13) On September 01, 2009 at 12:00 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

jd,

Here is a little reality for you....soon you will learn that without credit....there is NO AMERICAN ECONOMY!!!!!!!

Todd Gailas, executive manager of AutoMax in Greenville, N.C., is among those who had his financing cut off. Gailas's independent, used-car dealership has sold a variety of brands in the past 10 years, using a $3.1 million credit line from New South Federal Savings Bank, a regional bank based in Birmingham, Ala. On January 27, Gailas received a letter notifying him that his credit line was on "cease and desist" status. The bank gave him 60 days to find an alternative credit source.

"Even though I've had eight previous, perfectly paid loans and I'm the number-one retailer of pre-owned vehicles within 50 miles, I can't get floor plan financing," he says. "They think the loans are toxic, and with all the audits going on, they're not willing to take on that kind of loan."

The SBA has two new initiatives aimed at helping dealers like Gailas. In early May, the agency temporarily stretched its size standard of what counts as a "small" business, a move specifically aimed at making more car dealers and auto industry suppliers eligible for a government-backed loan. The SBA insures up to 90% of qualifying small business loans against default, reducing the risk for lenders.

But the initiative had a major flaw. Although more auto dealers became eligible for the SBA's loan programs, the SBA does not cover "floor plan" loans, the main kind of financing used by auto dealers. A typical floor plan loan is a revolving credit line that a dealership uses to purchase vehicles. As the cars and trucks sell, the dealership pays down the loan.

Without floor plan financing, a dealership can't operate.

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#14) On September 01, 2009 at 12:01 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

If you believe the mainstream media, which by you own words can't be trusted, then you should be scared.  I believe what I'm actually seeing... and what I'm actually seeing doesn't match up at all with your mainstreaming media blitz.

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#15) On September 01, 2009 at 12:06 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

jd,

My friends are small business people, local bankers, attorneys, accountants, physicians, indepedent contractors located across the nation.

What I post from the paper are facts and very reflective of my personal experience from contacts nationwide.  The declining tax receipts are the best independent confirmation.

We are rapidly running out of money in America....and the bankers are cutting us off....as we hand them over trillions.....soon you will understand....we are now into 9.09 on the East Coast.

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#16) On September 01, 2009 at 2:41 AM, awallejr (81.55) wrote:

jd

As an attorney myself, I can't complain.  Don't buy into Alstry's "crap", he has his "agenda" which only he and God knows what.

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#17) On September 01, 2009 at 8:18 AM, JerseyShoreGirl (< 20) wrote:

COULD THIS BE 9.09?   

Israel, Iran and Obama :  Conflict is inevitable unless the West moves quickly to stop a nuclear Tehran.

But unless Mr. Obama gets serious, and soon, about stopping Iran from getting a bomb, he'll be forced to deal with the consequences of Israel acting in its own defense.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203863204574348533106427974.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Must listen!  More info/insight re. grave danger of Iran situation (AUDIO).  This audio is 4 month old and IMO this could play/is playing out.  COULD THIS BE 9.09?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIs2mB9xib0

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#18) On September 01, 2009 at 2:23 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

jd,

For myself and my family, I would also say that things have not changed that much.  However, to ignore the fact that many are struggling right now is ignorance.  I have several friends that are well educated, and earned very good incomes, that are now unemployed.  Some purchased homes within the last few years, and will lose them...creating plenty of stress for parents with homes full of children, and/or children in college.  I have several friends that started small businesses within the last few years that are on the verge of losing everything.  I have a friend that was doing great in real estate up until last year that recently moved his family out of their home out of necessity.  None of these individuals are starving.  Luckily, they all have great families that have stepped up to help out.  However, no matter what you see in your own life, and what I see for my own family, these family's struggles are real.  I'm glad that you are doing well...hopefully you can help out those that are less fortunate...I know I need to do better...

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#19) On September 01, 2009 at 4:25 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

davejh23

I think I'm having problems getting my point across to you, and that's not intentional... as evidenced in another blog where you responded to me - I hope you read my response there as well.

I'm not ignoring the fact that many are struggling.   Unemployment is only one facet of the economic hard times we're seeing right now.  I am trying to  point out that the in my small corner of the world, the three cities in which I spend the majority of my time shopping, eating, working, and entertaining - for the most part the only abnormality seems to be the discrepancy between reality versus what we're being told is happening across the nation. 

I'm personnaly puzzled by sold out cruise ships, packed indian casinos, packed restaurants - mens wearhouse retail sales people seeing bonuses - (now that floored me).... so I wanted to ask if others are seeing what I'm seeing, or are they seeing what I'm being told is happening by this main stream media (including Alstry[nomics]

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#20) On September 01, 2009 at 4:53 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I live in Baltimore,Maryland, home to 2 of the richest counties in America (Howard County and Motgomery County) and there are 2 major cities within an hour(ish) each way-->That being Philly and Washington D.C.

I also work in IT, and within the healthcare industry.  Lets put it this way, my salary has increased even in these hard times.  But it's not all gravy.  A few of my good friends are unemployed and have been for some time.  I also have a few friends who have higher up jobs at the SSA, I hope they don't get cut.  I have seen the fall out of the real estate market first hand being 30% underwater.  Foreclosures are EVERYWHERE even in Maryland...even though we have 3 major cities in such close proximity which = lots of potential jobs.

Maybe in my own little bubble of an existence, I don't feel the recession.  But I see it everywhere.  I like to go out to clubs/bars/lounges in the city.  They are friggin ghost towns the past year.  No one is going out, instead, staying in, throwing parties and saving their money.  People's life styles have changed ENORMOUSLY around me.  Just my 2 cents.  The big picture is what you're losing site of, and what most of the "bulls" are also losing site of.  I don't see things nearly as bleek as Alstry does, but I do see what he's saying.  It's going to get worse before it gets better, I don't care what any of these "better than expected" BS numbers indicate.  That's gotten very old.  I want real, solid positive news...not a spin on the dire straights we are in.

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#21) On September 01, 2009 at 5:42 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

jason...you work in D.C.

90% of D.C. is dependent on Obama spending money he doesn't have....whether it's directly for government or contractors or health care.

Once Obama starts cutting...no place in the nation will feel it like D.C....but for now, things are OK

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#22) On September 01, 2009 at 5:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I work in Baltimore but close enough.  I work for a private company in the healthcare industry, right now, I feel ok with my company...which has grown 5x in the past 8 yrs...I work in IT doing tier 3 IT work (networking/ server administration) and this work is needed every where.

Even if I do lose my job, I have a side business and I do consulting for small businesses for 1/2 the cost of hiring through a large firm.

I'll be ok, I do my consulting as a fall back and contemplated doing it full time.  It's much harder work, so I'll stick with my 9-5.

 but if I'm forced to do consulting again, so be it.  I gotta eat :)

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