Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

alstry (36.12)

9.09 MUCH WORSE than The Great Depression

Recs

29

September 08, 2009 – Comments (22)

There are silly Fools out there that try to compare The Great Depression to "The Great Recession."

WTF is The Great Recession?....we are still at the beginning of whatever we are in as debt is just starting to default moving from sub prime into prime....and prime is much bigger than sub prime.

Sometimes I have to hold back from laughing if it wasn't so pathetic that our nation is so arrogant and indifferent to the import of our massive deficit against a backdrop of evaporating tax receipts.

In The Great Depression, we were a nation with a rising manufacturing manufacturing base with innovative industries and government was a very small percentage of GDP.  Not only that, our government operated surpluses and our citizens had very little debt as conumption was restrained and a much smaller percentage of our GDP.

Just two years into the downturn and we are seeing declines NEVER seen at the worst of The Great Depression such as new home sales down 80% and land values down over 80% in many areas.

TODAY, WE ARE SIMPLY A CONSUMPTION BASED NATION THAT PRODUCED VERY LITTLE RELATIVE TO ITS CURRENT STANDARD OF LIVING.

The joke is we are seeing such distressing results so early in the game AND with government running an unprecedented deficit.  In any con game, so long as the confidence remains, the game continues.  But when trust is gone, the game collapses. 

We are seeing revenues to the S&P already down 17%....unemployment approaching 20%.....and 100,000,000 Americans dependent on government for their monthly check WITH A $2 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT.  You can only run multi trillion dollar deficits and spend on consuption so long before the rest of the world calls BS.

Once that happens, they will demand payment in a different currency as they can just as easily print for their populations to consume as we can.......you can only have a rich uncle support you for so long before he tells you to get a job....or he runs out of money.

The BIG problem is that we have very little to produce that can generate foreign currency relative to our current standard of living.  Our number 1, 2, and 3 exports by container volume is trash.

We have shipped overseas much of our manufacturing edge and now technological edge as well.  The only thing supporting our consumption over recent years has been private borrowing and government spending.  Not that the bankers have cut back dramatically on private lending.....revenues to government have evaporated and massive deficits are the only thing keeping the ship from sinking.

Not too far off, if government keeps running a growing defiict, our currency will be worthless and many Amercans could face very difficult times because most of our vocations support a consumption based economy and not production....even mine as an attorney, or my friends who are doctors, architects, CEOs. accountants, psychologists, tech workers, and professors,

At this point based on current Zombulation policies, barring some miracle new technology, it is not a question whether this will be worse than The Great Depression....it is simply a question of how much worse......as we are already there in a number of mearures even with massive deficits.

9.09 arrives once someone calls BS....the UN sent a warning shot last night......just watch how the rest of the nations jump on board as we move through September.

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 08, 2009 at 6:20 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

SHUTTING DOWN CONTINUES.....

SACRAMENTO -- Six domestic violence shelters in California have been forced to close while dozens more are scaling back services after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger eliminated all state funding for the program that supports them.

Shelters in the Central Valley town of Madera, the Sierra foothill town of Grass Valley and in Ventura County in Southern California have closed. Others in the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles and Bakersfield are on the verge of closing.

Many centers are laying off staff and closing satellite offices that serve remote areas of the state as they cope with the budget cuts. A national domestic violence group describes California's as the deepest cuts to such programs nationwide, even as other states have reduced funding.

In Madera County, officials have turned away six domestic violence victims and eight children since the county's only shelter closed Aug. 7, said Tina Figueroa, the shelter's director. The Martha Diaz Shelter served about 100 victims a year, many of them low-income and with no place else to turn, she said.

"Their only option is the local rescue mission, but they're reluctant to go there because it's a majority of men (who stay there)," Figueroa said. "Also, it's not protected. Anybody could walk in there."

Three families -- mothers and their children -- who were staying at the secret location also were forced to leave quickly when it was shuttered, she said.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Calif-violence-shelters-apf-409966157.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=bb3c80fd6c1cf0e7aeab9b9b30ed5dcf&ccode=rd

NOT THE END OF THE WORLD....SIMPLY SHUTTING DOWN IN 9.09.

Report this comment
#2) On September 08, 2009 at 6:50 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

HOW FAR CAN REVENUES FALL BEFORE PRACTICALLY EVERYTHING SHUTS DOWN?????

ANSWER:  When revenues equal the amount to service debt.

Smith made her comments during the opening of the latest round of budget hearings. Sacramento County is facing a $68 million general fund shortfall in the current fiscal year and officials are proposing to cut almost 380 general fund positions, plus another 25 jobs in public works-funded departments.

Barely two months ago the board passed a $2 billion general fund spending plan for the fiscal year that started July 1. However, several key revenue streams -- property tax, sales tax and realignment funds -- are falling short of expectations...

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2167770.html

It appears like many Fools and analysts, government expectations are simply out of whack with reality.

Report this comment
#3) On September 08, 2009 at 7:00 PM, StrongTrader (< 20) wrote:

Alstry I think a reason why many refuses to accept facts and insead subject themselves to lies and fraud is because they would rather live in bubble land. They are afraid of any news that could potentially change the lavish lifestyle they currently possess. The thought of "Depression" scares them so much they decided to reject it and place their devotions among lies than facts. I appreciate your work Alstry ... awakening intoxicated and mindless drones one blog at a time!

Report this comment
#4) On September 08, 2009 at 7:39 PM, dickseacup (67.00) wrote:

Everything is OK.

Obama is going to be the first President ever to chair the UN Security Council. Given his extensive past experience in foreign affairs, we can all sleep better. Clearly he has plenty of time, energy and attention to devote to the problems of the UN because the problems of the US are well on their way to being resolved. 

Happy days are here again.

 

Report this comment
#5) On September 08, 2009 at 7:47 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

BETTER THAN EXPECTED!!!!!

ONLY 70% OF LAS VEGAS HOME SALES FORECLOSURES

Las Vegas home sales rose above a year ago for the 11th consecutive month in July as investors and first-time buyers -- including many making "cash" deals -- continued to target lower-cost, post-foreclosure properties. The overall median sale price fell nearly 4 percent from June, marking a low point for the decade and ending a brief period in which that price gauge and others had held steady, a real estate information service reported.

Nearly 70 percent of the Las Vegas-area houses and condos that resold in July were foreclosure resales, meaning those homes had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months. That was the same as in June but up from 62.5 percent in July 2008. Foreclosure resales peaked in April at 73.7 percent of total resales, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego. The firm tracks real estate trends nationally via public property records.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2009/09/70-of-july-home-sales-in-las-vegas-were-foreclosures.html

Could you imagine the number of homes that would sell if you paid people to buy homes???? or how few if there were no foreclosures????

Report this comment
#6) On September 08, 2009 at 7:59 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.03) wrote:

Alstry,

Nice to see you finally waking up to the fact that the future of our country rests in the confidence in our currency.  Got gold?  Got silver?

Not that my score reflects brilliance at the momeny, but my suggestion is to close out that IAG pick.  It will only cause you more pain IMO.

JFC

Report this comment
#7) On September 08, 2009 at 8:04 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

FOX getting hunted as the mainstream tunes out and advertisers running out of money.

KTTV's "60-Day Notification" slips are reportedly coming due this week, as 117 staffers at the Fox-owned KTTV-KCOP duopoly are to be laid off as of Sept. 10, according to a KTTV senior editor who posted an open letter to News Corp. management.

With the economy continuing to sputter, the stations are downsizing considerably. One insider said the downsized are roughly half full-time staffers and half per diem freelancers.

http://www.theusdaily.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=838153&type=EntertainmentCeleb

The economy can't be continuing to "sputter"..Benny B tells us the recession is over.

 

Report this comment
#8) On September 08, 2009 at 8:07 PM, motleyanimal (85.87) wrote:

True enough, Sacramento is suffering, even though two massive building projects continue: the billion dollar expansion of the Sacramento International Airport which is experiencing a major reduction of flights and passengers, and Regional Transit Light Rail, where passenger fares contribute less than 25% of revenues, all the rest comes from automobile and gasoline taxes along with federal government subsidies.

There will be much pain here, as roughly half the county health services will shut down. Yet, the beast is finally starving and it may be the only way government is reduced and forced to operate responsibly.

Report this comment
#9) On September 08, 2009 at 8:13 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

The "beast" is 50% of our GDP.....and when the beast can't afford to consume, the GDP implodes as well.....much more than The Great Depression.....add in a historically high amount of debt.......

9.09

Report this comment
#10) On September 08, 2009 at 8:55 PM, wvillegas007 (< 20) wrote:

Alan Greenspan "MARKET CRISIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8244600.stm

Report this comment
#11) On September 08, 2009 at 9:10 PM, Buckaneer (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

 Are you still going to stop blogging if 9.09 passes without a major market drop? Funny thing is, you will be proven correct, just maybe - as some suspected, your timing would be OFF. Initially I thought you'd be correct, but never try to time the markets. NEVER.

Report this comment
#12) On September 08, 2009 at 9:16 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

alstry,

Can you fathom the amount of money you have lost from March 9th to the present?

It's ok to spin in circles on a "wall" in facebook but this is about investing and so far you don't and have lost a fortune pissing on the "Fools" sidewalks.

Many of your points are interesting yet obvious and few are anything more then "Chicken Little" needing a bath with worms?

Just my 2 cents but this is really getting annoying "fool"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IIcx 

Report this comment
#13) On September 08, 2009 at 9:35 PM, russiangambit (29.42) wrote:

llcx, the same point can be made about such people as Schiff and Roubini, for example. Whether they get the market timing right or not doesn't make their macro points any less valid.

If all you need to know is what the market will do the next 24 hours, then , of course, there is not need to read alstry or anybody else for that matter because nobody has a clue. Just follow the momentum and you'll be right more often than wrong.

In fact, I doubt many of  these born-again bulls had a clue that market would rally 6 months straight. May be they had, if they had the right understanding of how powerful money printing can be. But they definitely were not talking about it on national TV . On TV it is all about green shoots.

Report this comment
#14) On September 08, 2009 at 9:47 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

actually russiangambit,

Most of us were reading the March lows and true to form for MF and Caps the small caps set the tone before the March bottom.

Charting a bottom or top is far better then listening to "Fools" rave? Or, is it about something more then investing -- if so why?

IIcx 

Report this comment
#15) On September 08, 2009 at 11:29 PM, rofgile (99.32) wrote:

"9.09 arrives once someone calls BS....the UN sent a warning shot last night......just watch how the rest of the nations jump on board as we move through September."

No, I believe 9.09 is.. tommorrow?

A prediction of Alstrynomics has failed, again.  When you theory is tested as an economics theory it has fallen short.

Macroeconomic indicators continue to show moderation in the decline, moving towards economic expansion in the US during Q3 and Q4. 

-Rof 

Report this comment
#16) On September 09, 2009 at 12:10 AM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

Moderation of decline......that is exactly what happens to a dying human just before they expire.......

Moderation of decline in English means things are getting worse.

As far as economic expansion...with a $2 Trillion dollar deficit and evaporating tax receipts, it can only avoid crashing so long as no one calls BS.....throw in a collapsing consumer and rising unemployment and wage cuts accompanied by exploding bankruptcies......and I would love to see what your indicators are indicating????

Report this comment
#17) On September 09, 2009 at 12:24 AM, theMovement (84.82) wrote:

Haaaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaa, it is 9/9 and you are officially wrong!  Hold on.... catching my breath, laughing this hard hurts.

 Hmmmm, Fed minutes said we're out of the recession.  Inflation will begin to creep in and that debt that you are so scared about will be worth less by virtue of inflation.  Expect 5 to 7% annual inflation, which is not so bad.

 I guess you fall into  the category of leaving your money on the sidelines and then being so upset that you were wrong and missed amazing gains that you go into denial about the greatness and resilience of the American economy and start predicting the destruction of the world.  

It would be impressive if you predicted that recession, but didn't.  You're predicting something that has already happened and is now in the process of getting better.   

Report this comment
#18) On September 09, 2009 at 12:30 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry -

It really is that simple, really.  The market isn't reflecting the reality of what's going on.  There is a massive growing rift between the people that have it all, and the people that have nothing.  So in some sense, things are rosey for some, and horrible with no light at the end of the tunnel for the rest of the peons.

When people wake up and figure out the market is based on momentum (which is stalling), and wake up, get the sleep out of their eyes, and figure out what's truely going on...it will all become clear.

May or may not happen this month, but I think when the FDIC has to be bailed out, that will send shock waves through the county like, "holy ****, the FDIC is out of money!?"

Yea them and every other gov't institution...NOW YOU GET IT! 

Report this comment
#19) On September 09, 2009 at 12:39 AM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

jas,

The FDIC is out of money....

The Pension Fund Guaranty is out money

The Banks are out of money

Pensions are out of money

The Insurance Companies are out of money

If debt was forced to be valued at fair market.....we would all be out of money

It is an interesting social experiment to see so many Fools simply wanting to grasp on to a lie so they can continue to live in the matrix.

 

Report this comment
#20) On September 09, 2009 at 3:55 AM, jester112358 (28.92) wrote:

All those self-confident people who claim to have made a fortune in in the last few months might want to consider this:  insider selling accelerated in the last months rally, going from 33:1 to 66:1 (i.e. 66 dollars worth of shares were sold for each one bought!)  That's right, the people running the companies are selling while the "dumb money iinvestors (see the movement comments) are buying.  The insiders are are going to cash/treasuries, bonds and gold.  You're the bagholder if you've been buying equities, unless you have better "inside information" than those running the companies you're buying.  (Insider selling source info:  The wall street journal)

 By the way, people who kept their entire nestegg in cash or treasuries or gold over the last 10 years have way more capital now than anyone who "invested" in the last 6 month bear market rally.  As the old saying goes, "be nice to the people you pass on the way up because you're sure to see them on your way down"  True in the game of CAPS and in life.   Something for those like to criticize Alstry, who's trying to get the truth about the upcoming deflationary spiral out might want to think about.

 

Report this comment
#21) On September 09, 2009 at 8:48 AM, russiangambit (29.42) wrote:

> Charting a bottom or top is far better then listening to "Fools" rave? Or, is it about something more then investing -- if so why?

My understnading that when people say investing they mean at least 2 year horizon. I have a feeling that all those gains of alst 6 months will be lost in those 2 years.

As for the "raving" on CAPS, it does have more long term horizon because it is about the structural problems on the economy.

If you are trading vs. investing, i.e. your time horizon is from 2 hours to 2 months, they you are better served by other CAPS posters like Goodvibe and binv and others who talk about Elliot waves and technicals and momentum.

I read both, I think both have merit.  In the long run, it is one thing to make fast money, it is another thing to preseve it.

 

Report this comment
#22) On September 09, 2009 at 2:01 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

It was an honest question and I read over the responses with interest.

The idea of investing in the markets is to make money and to support companies that have merit. Merit IMHO comes in a variety of shapes and sizes but the object is to accumulate stock in promising companies.

There are numerous ways to do this but my pick is to buy beaten down small caps that actually make money and sell 2/3 when they spike. 1/3 of the profit supports the gov. and the initial cost is still intact.

The stocks may grow or may decline in the short term but it's largely of no concern because I didn't pay anything for the shares -- they are an investment.

So charting, TA, EWT, etc. are very valuable tools and part of the tactic I choose to use for investing.

Is the idea of sitting around on an investment site like MF and only discussing economic conditions with a negative spin appropriate? Can we get a few insights about investing along with all the reality checks?

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement