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alstry (35.68)

9.09....America MUST become Communist!!!

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September 04, 2009 – Comments (28)

Here is the problem children.....and this is something Alstry has known all the time.

We are now running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit and we must run that deficit in order for America to not fall into the deepest depression in our nation's history.

The problem is that if we took the income of EVERY corporation in America, it would not even come close to $2 Trillion dollars.  You can do the research yourself, total corporate tax receipts this year will come in MUCH LOWER than $500 billion.

Our capitalist system as we know it is simply broke.....our politicians know it, our bankers know it, and soon you will know it.  I promised you you would know it by 9.09 and it is now here.  Everyday the evidence will increase until one day the event occurs.....just like that morning when Madoff's client's learned they were broke.....but this time it will affect an entire nation, and many around the world.

When a nation refuses to restructure and become accountable for its spending, pretty soon the consequences creep up and grab it in the backside.  We are now here....are revenues and earnings are simply too low to sustain the form of government we currently operate......and since most refuse to restructure the economy.....the economy is about to restructure us.

Keep watching the ticker tape....it is just like the patient with pancreatic cancer looking at an EKG....the problem is the only time it is relevant is when the patient is about to die.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 04, 2009 at 9:41 AM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

Maybe this should be formed in a question?????

Will Americans choose Communism or Depression?????

Or will we not be permitted to choose?

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#2) On September 04, 2009 at 9:47 AM, JerseyShoreGirl (< 20) wrote:

Meet Obama's 'Green Jobs Czar,' Van Jones, self-avowed Communist/Radical/Revolutionary..

Green Jobs?  Sounds harmless, right?

After hearing the audio, it seems like 'Going Green Movement' created and hyped up by the left (Al Gore) is really a way to increase our taxes (through Cap & Trade) and to shove a 'whole new system' down our throats ...

As our "suicidal gray capitalist system" (words of Van Jones) crumbles around us daily, as Alstry details so well, the White House is building, piece by piece a shadow govt to usher in a new system ... SLIPPING IN RADICAL KERNALS ... DID YOU HEAR ME?  RADICAL KERNALS into these mega-bills that will irreversably change our GREAT NATION ... and because (according to this audio .. and I paraphrase) "the crisis will get so bad with unemployment, etc., people will accept change."

I URGE ALL OF YOU TO OBJECTIVELY LISTEN TO THIS AUDIO .. REPLAY IT A FEW TIMES IF YOU HAVE TO ..

Obama said himself, "Personnel = Policy" .... if he's surrounding himself by people like Van Jones (and there are many other radicals behind the gates of the WH), do you really think this President will to protect/preserve our nation or dismantle it?

http://www.breitbart.tv/obama-czars-shock-admission-green-jobs-goal-is-complete-revolution-away-from-gray-capitalism/

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#3) On September 04, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Seansonfire (40.26) wrote:

As long as everyone still believes that it is ok to spend more then we have it doesn't matter.  Confindence in the system is the only thing that keeps our fiat monetary system in tack anyway so if you believe it works, it will work.

 It is self fulfilling.

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#4) On September 04, 2009 at 9:53 AM, carcassgrinder (46.15) wrote:

Alstry....

I have been curious about this for some time...and have yet to find an efficient way to obtain the information.  Would you have any idea what percentage of the US GDP is from manufacturing and farming verses the percentage from the financial sector.  In other words...what percetage of our GDP is based on actual work and production...and how much is based on trading pieces of paper and ponzi money growth?  And I would be interested to know how this ratio has changed over the last 100 years.

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#5) On September 04, 2009 at 9:59 AM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

People and government can only spend so long as they have money...now that the bankers have cut off the private economy from credit....money is running out..............FAST.

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#6) On September 04, 2009 at 10:18 AM, mawnck (< 20) wrote:

>>SLIPPING IN RADICAL KERNALS ... DID YOU HEAR ME?  RADICAL KERNALS<<

You're really Sacha Baron Cohen, aren't you.

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#7) On September 04, 2009 at 10:20 AM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

> The problem is that if we took the income of EVERY corporation in America, it would not even come close to $2 Trillion dollars

I don't buy it.  At least, not on Alstry's word alone.  Besides, who says we only have one year to pay the 2trillion off?  It's taken us a few decades to build it up, we can take a little time to pay it down.

Tick tock, Tick tock.  9.09 slips by, more than 10% in now, and nary a hint of the impending financial catastrophe you've been predicting.  What will Alstry do if September just sails on by?  Will he disappear back into the shadows of obscurity that he came from, or will he join the camp of bears who perpetually extend the timeframe of their failed predictions?   I wonder...

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#8) On September 04, 2009 at 10:27 AM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

Channel,

The two trillion is a operating deficit.....it is the deficit for this year alone....and revenues are continuing to shrink as expenses are exploding....that means the deficit is going to INCREASE next year.

Total corporate income tax LAST YEAR was only $314 Billion.  This year it will be MUCH lower as profits have evaporated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget,_2008

If you taxed corporations 100% of profits, it wouldn't come close to reaching $1 Trillion dollars, less the $2 Trillion of the current deficit and likely to grow next year.

Right now the only thing preventing our nation from falling into chaos is the deficit......and we can only borrow for so long before all falls apart.

Soon we as a people are going to have to choose how we restructure this mess.....or you can sleep at night being assured that the mess will restructure you.....one way or the other.

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#9) On September 04, 2009 at 10:32 AM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

Headline vs. Quote:

Headline:

Roubini: "U-shaped" recovery is possible

Quote:

"I think that too many people are hopeful that everything is fine and unfortunately the road ahead is going to be at best bumpy, if not worse," he said.

It appears the mainstream press thinks if you keep telling people things are getting better, even though they are getting worse.....the people will continue to be happy and think things are getting better.

Welcome to the world where perception is now reality regardless what reality actually is...................

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#10) On September 04, 2009 at 10:34 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.55) wrote:

Jersey,

I agree.  Van Jones is one scary dude.

JFC

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#11) On September 04, 2009 at 10:50 AM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (34.58) wrote:

The real question that I have is was this set up on purpose. We are in a position where the options are limited. Today's American's do not want the pain of a heavy recession or depression. Without the pain Government in needed to do all those things that most financial people do not want. What a catch 22.

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#12) On September 04, 2009 at 10:57 AM, 4everlost (30.49) wrote:

Thursday, September 03, 2009 A Truther Czar?... Obama's Green Czar Van Jones Believes Bush Administration Was Behind 9-11

It figures.
Barack Obama's communist Green Czar Van Jones is a Truther.
He believes the Bush Administration was behind 9-11 and signed the official 9-11 Truth Document demanding a further investigation.

To be completely fair, he denies it here:


Van Jones a 9-11 truther—denies it—apologizes for inflammatory ...‎

 

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#13) On September 04, 2009 at 11:06 AM, starbucks4ever (99.53) wrote:

5 days left...The Apolcalypse had better hurry up, otherwise it won't arrive here in time...

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#14) On September 04, 2009 at 11:07 AM, caltex1nomad (< 20) wrote:

I wish you guys would just put on your Nikes and drink the Kool Aid already........Or get in your Bunkers!!!!

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#15) On September 04, 2009 at 11:35 AM, caterpillar10 wrote:

well, i guess you have figured out what joe mcarthy knew all along. don't worry - be happy. operators are standing by w/your instructions - call in take a number and relax!!! twist up a fatty if you like - good news - it's legal now :-) we don't care - were all on welfare. someone will be by to pick up your guns in due course - chill out man, sall'good - bernadine and william will be on CNBC soon to xplain what to do w/the money...just relax.

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#16) On September 04, 2009 at 11:52 AM, GNUBEE (24.57) wrote:

Zloj,

Apolcalypse actually just tweeted, It's running slow (airline cutbacks and all), but is getting a connecting flight from spokane and should be here shortly.

Gaterpillar, the answer is 42.

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#17) On September 04, 2009 at 12:15 PM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

This would be a more persuasive argument if there was an example of a Marxist economy that worked very well. East Germany did the best of any of them and even it was a failure. The rest have been worse.

Remember the old joke? If Saudi Arabia became Marxist, in five years they would be importing sand.

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#18) On September 04, 2009 at 12:17 PM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

A CLASSIC BY BEN DOVER III

As the lone voice of optimistic reason on this naysaying website, it's my responsibility to intervene now and then to set the record straight for the benefit of all those benighted readers who don't consult reputable traditional media outlets like CNBC.

For months now, ZeroHedge (and unfortunately other bloggers and even some mainstream publications) have been warning of an impending commercial real estate meltdown that's supposedly going to crush banks, petrify credit markets, stall the economy's V-shaped rebound, and usher in an epoch of plague, locust, boils and the slaying of every real estate lender's first-born. Yet despite their continuous calls of "timber", the "commercial fake estate" tree refuses to fall. And just like an unheard tree falling in the woods makes no sound, if a borrower fails to repay but no one marks down the loan, there really hasn't been a default.

One of the wolf-crying anti-capitalists at the Wall Street Journal paints a grim picture: $1 trillion in mortgages backed by commercial property that's fast losing value, total losses on core CRE holdings reaching between 11.6% and 15.3%, or $115 billion and $150 billion, and the fact that more than 3,000 banks have more than 300% of their risk-based capital in commercial real-estate loans. And those are among the more optimistic of the pessimists' forecasts.

They also keep harping on certain macro-economic irrelevancies: businesses floundering, revenues flatlining, rents dropping and employees still being shown the door in droves (empty office space that most likely will be used by remaining employees to expand the size of their own offices). But none of those factors bodes badly for CRE. They're all what we experts call "lagging indicators," which means that they look backward instead of forward, and therefore can be safely ignored.

But more importantly, the doomsdayers are making the classic mistake of confusing subjective value with objective value. (Bear with me here even if you don't have an advanced economics degree.) These economic relativists think that a product only has value to the extent someone is willing to pay for it, i.e., to the extent that, in the subjective opinion of some prospective buyer, it has value. But we all know that's not how the real world works. Goods and services have intrinsic value. That's why FASB had the courage to yield to the greater wisdom of Congress and the banking industry and relax mark-to-market accounting. No market exists for CRE loans and CMBS, just like none exists for commercial real estate generally. But that doesn't mean that CRE, and the loans and securities that are derived from it, don't have value. They retain their objective value despite the fact that everyone thinks they're so worthless that they're unwilling to buy them at virtually any price.

A simple example illustrates the principle. Suppose I produce a giant steaming turd. Now if I put that turd up for sale, I probably wouldn't get any offers. Why? Not because my bowel movement is unsaleable, but because no market for it exists. Sure, the relativists will claim that the absence of a market is an indication (if not irrefutable proof) that my feces is worthless, but they'd just be describing its subjective value. Their opinion wouldn't indicate anything about it's all-important objective value. And since I produced the product, I'm in the best position to know its objective value and account for it accordingly.

So, for lack of a more palatable metaphor, the CRE market is analogous to a pile of crap. Just because everyone thinks it stinks doesn't mean it actually does. Because no market for it exists, we'll never know what it's true value is at this moment, which means that CRE lenders should continue to value their legacies at whatever price they subjectively believe they're objectively worth. Later on, that fetid stool I produced might just be used to fertilize a garden, and what seems like worthless shit today might end up smelling like a bouquet of flowers tomorrow. And that's what REITs and banks with CRE loans are doing. They're looking ahead to the brighter future of CRE, where today's turds are tomorrow's tulips.

"High-falutin' economic principles and academic theories are all well and good," the doubting Thomases like Tyler Durden and Contrary Investor will say, "but where's the proof?"

Right here, my scaremongering colleagues.  Exhibit A: The infallible discerner of jewel from junk, quality from crap, and objective from subjective value -- the equity market. Not only have the stock prices of REITs like Kimco skyrocketed since their March lows, they've been getting more equity financing than even Larry Kudlow ever dreamed possible -- a vote of confidence that proves that the credit markets that refuse to re-finance these REITs simply have no testicular fortitude. Why on earth would the stock market pour so much cash into CRE-related stocks if the CRE market were about to collapse like a mall of cards? Remember, there is wisdom in mobs crowds.

Exhibit B:  The best judges of CRE value -- the major banks (along with the interdependent CRE analysts they employ) that have hundreds of billions in loans to CRE players -- have upgraded their outlooks on REITs and enthusiastically underwritten billions in equity offerings to them. The fact that the upgrades come within days (sometimes hours) of the announcement of a new offering and that the proceeds are explicitly earmarked to repay the REITs' loans to the underwriting banks doesn't suggest they're motivated by a glaring conflict of interest. It just means that the analysts' new recommendations are more current, and thus more reliable than their previous negative recommendations.

And who can blame them for seeing the light and becoming more bullish? The CRE market has nowhere to go from here but up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-you-believe-all-negative-hype-about-commercial-real-estate-ive-got-few-thousand-vacant-of

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#19) On September 04, 2009 at 12:27 PM, ozzfan1317 (79.39) wrote:

I sure hope the Apocalypse comes it won't be much fun without streets filled with Zombies and the end of all mankind..lol..;)

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#20) On September 04, 2009 at 12:32 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

#7

From comment #8 on this blog:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=240107&t=01002130057764754273

"If by the end of September, MOAP never matierializes, Alstry will dematerialize into cyber ether."

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#21) On September 04, 2009 at 12:34 PM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

jd,

What you should worry about is what comes up to replace him.....

MOAB.....Mother of All Bloggers?????

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#22) On September 04, 2009 at 2:06 PM, caterpillar10 wrote:

.......thank you for holding & please stand-by...your F.I.N.E. Plan card will be in the mail before you know it! and don't worry! - now that the stress of grubbing for money like a little pig all day is gone forever you'll be using way less healthcare anyway. so, lose that moapy long face there mister and/or missy.... thank you for holding & please stand-by...    

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#23) On September 04, 2009 at 2:36 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.82) wrote:

#8) On August 07, 2009 at 2:05 PM, alstry (99.52) wrote: prose,We have not hit 9.09.I have pretty much said my peace.We have about 50 days left.Going forward I will substantially reduce my blogging as this post pretty much sums things up.If by the end of September, MOAP never matierializes, Alstry will dematerialize into cyber ether.

--------------------------

Have you EVER said anything and kept your word?  On 8/7/09 you said you were going to reduce your blogging.  Yup, since then you've been all the way down to 3 blogs per day which is only a rounding error away from what you were doing up to that point.

I'm not holding my breath that we'll ever be rid of you even if the S&P is double your prediction (555) during your precious 9/9 prediction month.

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#24) On September 04, 2009 at 2:44 PM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

bridge,

MOAP has materialized....can't you see it?  I am off the hook.  You think AZ is selling off the state capital to meet an operating deficit for fun?

We are now broke, and are running out of things to liquidate....but your and my bank accounts are not too far off.

I warned you MOAP is coming....it is now here.

 

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#25) On September 04, 2009 at 3:00 PM, caterpillar10 wrote:

Looks like the they'll need to open some HappyCamps to explain the NewWays to folks that are just not getting it. I hear the Rev. Wright will sitting in for Sean while he's in 'orientation' next week. 

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#26) On September 04, 2009 at 3:03 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.82) wrote:

Wow!  You're claiming victory.  I have now officially seen it ALL.

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#27) On September 04, 2009 at 3:17 PM, alstry (35.68) wrote:

bridge,

You need a little patience baby.......there is still lots of time in 9.09.....even you will know.

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#28) On September 04, 2009 at 4:57 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"MOAP has materialized....can't you see it?"

You're the only one that can see it.  You've guaranteed us that.

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