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kirkydu (93.98)

+936 points REDUX

Recs

5

February 27, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GE , FCX , DBE

While I've been generally bearish for a long time (evidence caps score I suppose), colleagues call me a perma-bear, I think the time for dispair is behind us.  While I don't foresee any major economic rebound in the U.S. anytime soon, I think it is likely we are about to settle into a "nice" stagflation for quite a few years (read my previous blog).  While that is not a sexy thought by any means, for investors it shouldn't be so bad.  I'm not going to go into detail why I think this, as it's out there already if you look around. 

What's important for investors is that enough big investors are seeing the same thing.  In the not too distant future, my guesstinilysis, is that we get a sharp rebound rally by early May.  Something towards 11,000 on the Dow ultimately a year or two out.  Stocks however should maintain a range of about 7000 on the Dow, 700 on the S&P 500 to 11,000 and 1,100 for at least five or six years.  What is likely to have more enduring upside is commodities.  I'll go out on a limb right now and say that those $200 oil/bbl predictions will come true a lot sooner than people currently think, like by 2011-12.

I'm not trying hard to convince you, but I tend to be about right because I listen to the right guys for the most part, so take this for what the price is worth.  If you don't want to listen to me, there are some billionaires who I stole all this from, feel free to say it was them who gave you the ideas.

kirkydu

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 02, 2010 at 12:17 PM, kirkydu (93.98) wrote:

Hmmm, I wonder if the oil prediction comes true too?

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#2) On February 05, 2010 at 1:42 PM, ralphmachio (26.17) wrote:

Wow! Good work! - note to self, listen to kirkydu predictions.  Any Idea how long before we revisit the 7000 range?

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