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TMFMmbop (33.95)

March 2010

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A short list of stocks I want to go down in price...

March 31, 2010 – Comments (0)

Put 'em on your watch list.

WWIN
MICC
HDB
CMG
DHIL
POT
PSMT

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Open Thread: April 15 is a Big Day

March 30, 2010 – Comments (4)

Not because it's tax day, but because that's the day the DoT will decide if China is a currency manipulator or not. I'm working on a column for Thursday about this issue, but suffice it to say in the meantime that I'm not sure if labeling China or not will effect meaningful change, but it will have a significant long-term diplomatic and potentially trade cost for US-China relations -- a cost that I'll say is to high to bear in the name of electoral politics.  [more]

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GoDaddy seeks some credibility

March 30, 2010 – Comments (3)

Far be it from me to believe a company that seeks as much publicity as possible with its pseudo-erotic television commercials (yes, I'll link, but no I won't embed the video), it just seeking to get some additional publicity by following Google "out" of China, but anybody else think the news that GoDaddy is leaving China is a little bizarre?  [more]

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What Europe's Bailout Means for Greece and the Euro

March 26, 2010 – Comments (4)

Well, we knew it would happen, but we didn't think it would happen so fast. But The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Europeans Agree on a Bailout for Greece.  [more]

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Don't You Dare, Europe

March 25, 2010 – Comments (0)

Markets are reacting today to news that Europe is reaching a consensus for a joint effort with the IMF to help Greece, a development we reported on two days ago. Again, we are coming to the conclusion that Greece does have a few outs for its situation, which presents several different investment opportunities. Hopefully, the EU will hold off on acting until we've been able to get our special report -- something we're working on rapidly -- into your hands.  [more]

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Bill Gross Hates Greece. What's He Missing?

March 25, 2010 – Comments (4)

Pimco's Bill Gross wrote in his most recent commentary that there are three conditions for a country to satisfy in order to escape a debt crisis. They are:  [more]

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Joe Meets Starbucks in Greece...and is unhappy about it

March 24, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SBUX

I (Joe here) want to love Starbucks as an investment. I love the coffee, the strength of their brand, and the massive, loyal, repeat customer base who relies on Starbucks for its caffeine fix each morning. To the company's credit, the strategy to throttle back expansion plans was spot-on (albeit belated), and today's news that the company will now pay out a dividend warms my greedy capitalist heart. Starbucks clearly wasn't able to reinevest that cash at value accretive rates for shareholders, so it was nice to see the company finally embrace fiscal adulthood. Hey, at least they beat Greece there.   [more]

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Great Quotes from Today's Meetings

March 23, 2010 – Comments (3)

Here are some quick hits of the great lines from today's meetings (without any editorial comment)...  [more]

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It can't be that easy, can it?

March 23, 2010 – Comments (3)

The Greek debt crisis was sparked when the current administration (elected last October) announced that the country’s budget deficit was actually 50% larger than the outgoing administration had led people to believe (12.7% of GDP compared to 8.5%).  [more]

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Why there just might be investment opportunity in Greece

March 23, 2010 – Comments (1)

We learned an interesting tidbit from some of the brokerages we visited today. While big institutions with investment committees are pulling out of Greece (gunshy from the bank collapses in the US, none of them want to get caught up "in Greece" when the problems here are so obvious), more flexible investors such as hedge funds and private equity are getting ready to pile in. That fact really got our attention. After all, while mutual funds often need to engage in window dressing, we individual investors can do anything we want provided we have a long timeline and the right temperament. With that in mind, some things in Greece are looking a lot more interesting now than they were before we got on the plane over here.  [more]

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On the Odds of an IMF Bailout of Greece

March 23, 2010 – Comments (6)

We told you in yesterday's video that we'd investigate the odds of an IMF bailout of Greece today and all that entails. Well, we did that and in talking with some serious bankers today, we got the odds at zero to if the IMF is involved at all, it will be as part of a broader EU package. In other words, the Greeks think their government is just trying to get the attention of the Germans and actually believe they won't end up needing any IMF help at all.  [more]

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How Could Europe Undo the Euro Anyway?

March 22, 2010 – Comments (3)

Aside from the big thematic stuff that we've already been touching on, there's the significant question about just how a euro country would go about extricating themselves from the common currency anyway. It would be a logistical nightmare.  [more]

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What I Learned Today Flying from DC to Frankfurt to Athens

March 22, 2010 – Comments (3)

To sum up 13 hours in airports and planes this Germany/Greece/EU/euro thing is serious serious stuff. It was the only topic being discussed on the German news as we cleared customers in Frankfurt, and neither the German chancellor nor the Greek prime minister has shown any signs of budging from their positions. For Greece, they believe they deserve help since they are part of the EU. For Germany, they have no interest in bailing out a profligate neighbor that they've been subsidzing for the last decade anyway.  [more]

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3 Must-Reads Before We Depart for Greece

March 20, 2010 – Comments (4)

As many of you know we're taking off for Greece tomorrow in an attempt to figure out how this current financial crisis is going to resolve itself -- and with what ramifications. Before we go, however, we want you to be read up. So check out some of these fascinating Greek reads...  [more]

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China: Beyond the Fundamentals

March 18, 2010 – Comments (0)

Hey, folks. These are my notes on the discussion that kicked off this year's Roth conference (we just returned, which is why the blog has been inactive for a few days). The panel was of very high quality this year, and I thought their observations would be interesting to share.  [more]

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Heading to the Roth Capital Conference tomorrow...

March 13, 2010 – Comments (0)

Among other things, that means blog posting will be intermittent. Check us out at twitter.com/TMFGlobalGains for real-time updates and me potentially fawining over Social Distortion's Mike Ness. I'm a big fan.

Anyhow, should be good stuff. www.twitter.com/TMFGlobalGains 

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Brazil is Really Really Important

March 12, 2010 – Comments (6)

But I had no idea they were this important. From the mouth of President Lula da Silva:  [more]

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What I almost recommended today

March 11, 2010 – Comments (0)

The downside of adivising a newsletter with a fixed publishing schedule is that you don't get to pick the day your pick goes out. This month one of my finalists ran away before we had the chance to write it up.  [more]

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We're Going to Greece! Are We Crazy?

March 11, 2010 – Comments (5)

We announced this morning to Global Gains members that members of the research team will be heading to Greece in a scant 10 days to meet with people on the ground there to get a sense if the government's austerity plan can succeed and if the euro can be saved. This chain of events  has enormous significance for global financial affairs and we want to get the real insights (you won't see many actual Greeks quoted in newspaper reports here).  [more]

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From the library of horrible ideas...

March 09, 2010 – Comments (3)

Harry Smith to have a colonoscopy live on the air. I've bee on The Early Show. Senor Smith is a bit of an egotistical jerk. But this is taking it to new levels.

But let me know how Coffee with Harry's Colon goes if you watch.*

*Not really

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Buffett Buys Georgia Liquor Distributor

March 08, 2010 – Comments (1)

Wine & Spirits Daily breaks the news:   [more]

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Beware Your ARPU Forcast

March 05, 2010 – Comments (4)

We spent some time this week trying to figure out likely ARPU trends in fast-growing emerging markets. Take a look at this chart and you'll see that ARPU (as a percentage of GDP per capita)tends to decline dramatically as a market becomes more developed and more penetrated. Not good for valuations that assume rising ARPU in places such as Africa and India. (Apologies in advance if it is difficult to read.)  [more]

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New Recommended Reads

March 04, 2010 – Comments (1)

Chances are you're aware of the new Michael Lewis book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. If you're not consider this a heads-up to pick it up. I expect it be a good one. Vanity Fair published a fascinating excerpt here, and Michael Lewis will be speaking in Fool HQ during the book tour, so we'll try to get up some notes.   [more]

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This will not go over well

March 04, 2010 – Comments (0)

Two German politicians have now suggested that Greece sell some of its islands to pay down debt. Pretty sure Greece won't respond well to Germany suggesting it reduce its territorial sovereignty.  [more]

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Would You Twitpay me?

March 03, 2010 – Comments (7)

I'm fascinated today after being sent a link to Twitpay. Using it, one can tweet money in exchange for goods and services using PayPal-based technology.  [more]

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US investment reaction to the Chilean earthquake

March 01, 2010 – Comments (1)

Watching the market this morning, investors aren't selling Chile stocks quite to the degree that I thought they would. Here are the major exchange traded names and their performance thus far today:  [more]

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