I just recently read pretty much the only blog I have written since being a member of Fool and was quite proud of how accurate it was now 3 years later. Blogging just isn't my thing and I only wish to do so when I feel so convicted that I must send the message to everyone out of a greater concern for the investing community than any embarrassment to myself. Oil and actually the entire market itsself (a different topic) is a place to AVOID COMPLETELY! I have seen a bunch of posters blog that now is the time to get in with very little basis as to why? Hech with technicals, I mean fundamentally why anyone should get in. To those who say get in now ...
Unfortunately, I differ strongly on this opinion. The price of oil is a commodity and commodities have times of wild swings with wealths lost and won over night. More than any other investment class commodities swing with over exhuberance. Good and currently now BAD!. Looking at a 63 price seems at a very cheap discount to where it was or has been and so I understand the temptation to dive in. However this is a falling knife and here are the reasons why? [more]
Consumer Confidence Just got released at the lowest rating since 2009 and the market is down 100. The European banking and Sovereign Debt Crisis is in full swing with Greek default still looming. GDP was a paultry 1% growth. I have been (albeit wrong) bearish on the yen and Japan for quite a while and the market seems to have taken notice with the worst finance minister now promoted to Prime Minister. This means the last safe haven (Japan) is no longer going to be viewed as so safe which at 250% debt levels and growing I simply reply "Duh!" Emerging market growth is stagnating and as usual the Fed and the debate of QE3 is all wrong (a different discussion). Treasuries are at unreal the world is ending interest rates (10yr below 2.25) indicating smarter better bond investors are signaling market decline. Now the 4/5 year trend of a new recession is in high gear for discussion and the odds have risen dramatically and thus a market sell off. Last week we posted a 4% rise and everyone got excited. Hello people we were at 12,700 (Dow) just a couple of months ago and were at 11455. Gold is stubbornly hanging above 1800 and rising as we speak another indicator of "Gloom and Doom." Even oil is actually quite stubbornly high considering the demand picture and our beloved coffee is up 18% in one month. Now throw in the Middle East turmoil and there is every reason to be bearish on the global economy and our market. Lastly, there is Irene and billions of output as well as productivity lost with FEMA representative of our nations governments (federal, state and counties) fiscal constraints on being able to do anything. [more]
Accuraccy is irrelevant. The only relevance is whether the gains from right out weigh the losses from the wrong.