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Seansonfire (35.23)

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Pandora is Losing out to Spotify and Rhapsody

December 21, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: P , AAPL , AMZN

Pandora Media (P) is a great idea, and provides a great service to the masses. Unfortunately they are losing out to other services that offer either similar music services or a better experience entirely. Spotify and Rhapsody are two of such services that offer the customer the full experience of choosing their own music, building playlists, and listening at their will to literally anything they want. Pandora does not allow you either the flexibility or the depth that either Spotify or Rhapsody offer. Spotify and Rhapsody due have additional monthly fees for streaming music (where as you can listen to an add supported version of Pandora streaming for free) which may prevent people from using Spotify or Rhapsody.

Overall the value provided by Spotify or Rhapsody much exceeds that of Pandora to the customer. For these reasons I see the growth of Pandora falling short of its own projections as well as those of industry analysts which estimate a 40% y-o-y rev growth of the next 5 years.

The ability for any of these music services including Spotify, Rhapsody, and Pandora to make money in these ever increasingly technically proficient population is still a huge question. Major threats from Bit-Torrent sharing, Apple iTunes and Amazon still make these companies revenue streams highly at risk.

As an investor you should never try to buck the trend, and the trend is away from Pandora.  Just from talking to my friends that are huge music buffs, I see the writing on the wall, and it says Spotify wins and Pandora losses.

Short it if it gets up toward $13 a share in the short term.   [more]

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Groupon Vs. United Online: Web 2.0 vs. Web 1.0

February 15, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: UNTD

I have just had one of the worst experiences with customer services that I think I have ever had coupled with one of the best.    [more]

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If the markets were rational they would buy Chinese Small Caps

January 12, 2011 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: ZOOM , NIVS , HOGS.DL

Chinese Small Cap stocks have been subject to an incredible amount of criticism over the last 2 years due to the fact that there has been rampant fraud in Chinese companies that trade on US markets.  I actually invest in small cap Chinese Stocks for the exact reason that most people don't invest in them.  The fact that that there is a fear, and a rational one at that, of Chinese Small Cap stocks committing fraud, which has been documented on several occasions, is the reason why it is a good value to buy Chinese Small Cap stocks.  To understand why I am investing in these stocks you need to follow me through the following evaluation.  [more]

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2011 Small Caps with 50% Upside

January 04, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SOL , KOOL , ZOOM

As I did last year I made a couple of predictions for the year on what Mid/Small Caps would have a spectacular 2010.  If you read my other post here, I summarized how I did on my 2010 picks, which was about +22% on average.  I missed my goal of an average of 50% return for the year in 2010, but I intend to turn the tides and produce 50%+ returns on average for my 2011 picks.   [more]

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2010 Mid/Small Caps Picks Reviewed

December 28, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HOGS.DL , OLED , CLNE

I made some predictions for 2010 for my top Mid/Small Cap Picks with likely returns of 50% or more for the year.  Here is the link to my original post.  [more]

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