After the end-of-year window dressing wears off, like so much Shinola, January will come. There will be a flurry of buying lasting perhaps a week, and then some beige book or similar will come along showing that things are as bad as everyone thought they were, and the bottom will fall out. I believe there will be S+P 700 by March. Sometime in 2009 Dow hits 5000, and the banks - TARPed, unTARPed, whatever - will lead the way.
We're hearing a lot of Congressmen say that GM has to emerge "Leaner and meaner, and more able to compete."
Let me translate: "Middle class people who were promised health care and pension benefits must live to see those promises broken. However, our government will stand firm in not providing universal health care to supplement these broken promises. Meanwhile, every business person knows there is a great deal of value left in GM; GM must be freed of the promises it made to its retirees so that it can compete against countries whose workers receive health care on their government's dime." That is what "reorganization in bankruptcy" really means. Parse carefully, folks; we are in for what may be the biggest of 2008's BOHICA moments. [more]
This was originally posted as a comment to Eldrehad's blog, but it's been kicking around in my head for a while - I think a lot about GM, because I own a *lot* of GM. Eldrehad had said that the US automakers produce an inferior good: [more]
Should've gotten out at 5.