January 06, 2009 –
While logging on to see if any of my picks had changed significantly since I last looked I noticed that I had a new charm; none other than the "No Picks In 90 Days" charm. [more]
August 10, 2007 –
Getting back in now that it is truly outrageously priced. Not that I will ever make up the points I lost on the original thumbs down. But no, the way CAPS values underperform calls is not broken.
Outperform Call:
In at $10 and it moves against you 25%, you lose 25 points.
You get back in when the stock goes against your original call by 50% ($5) and it goes back up to your original outperform value ($10). Final result: +75 points.
Underperform Call:
In at $10 and it moves against you 25%, you lose 25 points.
You get back in when the stock goes against your original call by 50% ($15) and it goes back down to your original underperform value ($10). Final result: +8 points.
Identical stock performance. Identical actions by the CAPS player. Two different results. [more]
July 31, 2007 –
Apparently the opinion of those of us who said AHM was a dog months ago are weighted only marginally higher than those who woke up Tuesday morning the 31st of July and thought, "Wow, the news headlines say they are out of money and can't fund loans." As of this writing the score of a person who made the down pick today before trading opened again, 86.25 - 88.66 and an accurate pick added to the tally. My score, 95.99 and an accurate pick added to the tally. So basically the only difference is 7-10 caps points. (And if this thing goes to zero, that caps point difference will drop even further.) If this had been an Outperform pick under the same scenario, I would be well ahead of the momentum pickers. (At an ever increasing margin as the stock went up.) [more]
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