My reasoning is pretty simple: When Warren Buffett says he's buying stock, all it means is that it's a good market for Warren Buffett to be buying stock. Even if he is right, it may not be a good time for me to be buying stock. And he might not be right.
Buffett didn't say which stocks he was buying. I'm sure he's extremely selective. Are you anywhere near as good at picking good companies as he is? Can you swing the kind of deals that he can? Goldman Sachs and GE are paying 10% dividends to get Buffett's money. [more]
I love the rallies.
I love liquidity.
I love the crashes
I love this market
And all its ups and downs.
Boom de yada, boom de yada,
Boom de yada, boom de yada... [more]
Monday, September 29, 2008: Bailout bill voted down in the House
S&P 500 close: 1106.39
Friday, October 3, 2008: Bailout bill passed, signed into law
S&P 500 close: 1099.23 [more]
I'm making a note here: HUGE SUCCESS!
The bailout bill failed to pass the House. Wall Street's $700 billion subsidy has been shot down for now.
The market's down on the news. Good. Maybe now people will start investing based on who can put the money to the most productive use rather than who's at the front of the line to leech off of the taxpayers. The crash will happen regardless of whether the bailout happens. The difference is who pays for it. I see no reason why the government should pick up the tab for the excesses of reckless companies. [more]
Thank heaven for whisky, cigs, and lolcats. I strongly recommend that you stock up on your coping mechanism of choice for dealing with what's coming.
Yeah, I'm running low on optimism these days. Seriously. If there were an ETF that tracked my level of optimism, shorting it would be an excellent idea. Unless something very interesting happens between now and morning, the market's going to be down big at the open. And this is on top of already being down 10% for the year (all three weeks of it).
I'm pretty sure this is just the beginning.
Much of my negativity towards the future of the market comes from my experience with the tech crash. I made my first attempt at investing back in 2001. The Nasdaq had dropped about 70% from its high and recovered a bit, so I figured it was safe to say we'd hit the bottom of the tech crash. If you look at the chart for the following two years, you'll see why it took me until 2006 to work up the nerve to start investing again.
The lesson: Calling a bottom based on arbitrary numbers is pointless and hazardous to your portfolio. The best you can do is try to figure out what's driving the market down, and assume that the bottom is near once it's no longer a factor. This isn't going to be over until fear wins out over greed and transparency wins out over fraud.
By the way, have you ever seen what happens when somebody actually tries to catch a falling knife? I have. It's not a pretty sight. Unless you enjoy bloodshed and stitches, I strongly advise against it. [more]