I just had an epiphany of sorts. I'm sure some of you thought of this a long time ago and will say, "Well, duh!" If you are one of those people, congrats on being a quick thinker. [more]
The Government has been putting on a grand show vilifying hedge funds. Raising taxes on them, expressing outrage, adding new regulations. [more]
China Calls for New Reserve Currency [more]
It's pretty clear from the tone of a lot of my posts that I'm extremely angry. I wanted to clarify the reason for my outrage. Here it is: [more]
If you like fiction, keep watching CNBC. If you want to understand the truth, take the time to watch this video.
Do you want to be compared some day to the German citizens who blindly supported Hitler as he rose to power, or do you want to be enlightened?
Against my own better judgment, I'm going to predict the market. It's a fool's game but I can't help myself. [more]
Get ready to strain your brain. Here are the rules:
1) Does the company have a lot of debt? (They all do)
2) Is the stock trading above $1.50?
3) Is the market cap above $100 million?
If the answer to all of these is yes, Red Thumb! But aren't rules 2 and 3 simply the CAPs minimum conditions for being able to pick a stock? Yep. [more]
Has anyone noticed that coverage of government policy has gone from about 2% of CNBC's content to 50%? Why is that? Simple -- the free market is dying. The way to make money in the market is to anticipate the government's and the Fed's actions correctly. That's pretty much all that matters now. P/Es? Price to book? PEG ratios? Ha! Ha! [more]
My argument for inflation has always been the same:
1) The government and the Fed will do everything they can to stop deflation
2) The Fed is accountable to no one
3) Therefore the money supply will increase until we have massive inflation
Without government help, C would clearly be worth $0. So every move up means another stake in the heart of the free market, and it means another dollar out of my kid's education fund due to higher taxes. [more]
My CAPS nickname is "StatsGeek," after all. Let's engage in a little statistical exercise, for fun: [more]
I'm going to make a little prediction now. I'm quite certain many of you will skewer me and tell me what a delusional idiot I am. Bring it on! One of the things I love about markets is that I will either be proved right or wrong in time. [more]
I lost $100 betting on a shell game once. I mean that literally. It was so easy to follow which shell the little ball was under. Until they took my money and tricked me of course. After they took my money, it was so easy to see in hindsight that the ball was not under ANY of the 3 shells by the time I picked. Boy did I feel like an idiot. I was much more angry at myself for being so stupid than I was at the scam operators. [more]
I'm really amazed at the continued gullability of investors with respect to the PR that comes out. You trust Ken Lewis? You think he knows what that $1.3 trillion in "long term assets" on his balance sheet is worth now, not to mention what it will be worth in 2 or 3 years? He has no freakin' idea! Remember LEH? Remember BSC? Remember what their venerable leaders said only days before they collapsed? [more]
I have to give the administration credit for orchestrating this rally. A lot of good "news" coming out all at the same time. Obama says buy stocks. Buffet says buy -- again (he's an informal advisor to Obama). JPM, BAC, C -- all profitable! -- if you ignore the incalculable value of trillions of debt and derivatives on their balance sheets. GM doesn't need $2 billion. GE's debt is downgraded less than expected. Just a coincidence? Maybe. [more]
Before I give my reasons, let me make clear that I have no idea what the market is going to do in the short term. Dow 8,000 would not surprise me in the least (well maybe a little). The biggest rallies happen in bear markets. Also, don’t read this if you prefer to remain in denial – you won’t like it. Caveats thus dispensed, here we go: [more]
See the irony in that faux headline?
The shorts are clearly the reason that the stocks of Citibank and Bank of America have been getting destroyed. OMG! Short interest in these stocks is almost 1/2 of 1%!
(I'm not opposed to the restoration of the uptick rule, but I also don't think it means much one way or another)
Anyone who has followed my blogs and stock picks knows that I believe that severe inflation is just around the corner. In the past, I've mentioned these causes: [more]