January 28, 2010 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MKL
Going into their 4th quarter, it looks like my investment thesis for Markel is on target. In their third quarter, the company had an underwriting profit, positive net income, and reported that their book value had increased 23% as compared to year-end 2008. I still think that Markel shares could once again command a price of 2x book value, which would equate to a value of $548 per share today.
January 26, 2010 –
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RELATED TICKERS: DWSN
, OYOG
A cold winter has led to rising natural gas prices, and the credit markets have thawed for Dawson's customers. Could a recovery be far behind for Dawson Geophysical? I think the stock will be out ahead of earnings similar to the way Oyo Geospace rose ahead of results reaching their bottom line. I cover this in more detail on my blog.
January 06, 2010 –
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RELATED TICKERS: CSE
I added a new post on CapitalSource to my blog. I still think this stock should double over the next year and a half or so. As soon as the reserves are done, probably by the second quarter 2010, look for positive earnings to propel this one higher.
December 22, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: OYOG
Back in September, I noted that Oyo Geospace was showing signs of recovering. In their most recent quarter, they noted that they paid down their line of credit to $0, but earnings are still lagging. I expected this. What I didn't expect was for the stock to go from $22 to almost $40 per share. Without any indication that earnings are improving, I think it's time to end my outperform pick on Oyo Geospace. I regret actually not buying when I picked outperform. I thought it might be a little too soon. Now I'm hoping for a pull back to $30 to buy in. I still think this one may work out, but it's gotten too expensive to rely on a possibility. [more]
December 15, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: CTRP
I couldn't have been more wrong about my thumbs down on Ctrip. As I discuss on my blog, I had modeld 25% growth and it looked expensive. I thought the big growth numbers (>25%) were behind them. Last quarter, they proved there could still be some big numbers ahead. I'd hate to buy the stock counting on more phenomenal growth, but I don't want to be short either...
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