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JimVanMeerten (61.86)

April 2010

Recs

2

O'Reilly Automotive -- ORLY

April 30, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ORLY

Financial Tides pick today is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ( ORLY ) a specialty retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories to both ``do-it-yourself`` customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly stores carry an extensive product line consisting of new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, and brake shoes and pads, maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, engine additives and appearance products, accessories, such as floor mats and seat covers.

The company has been on an acquisition tear lately and will soon integrate 1300 CKS, 123 Checkers and 141 Murrays stores into their fold bringing their total to over 3500 stores. All these stores will be rebannered and new inventory will be O'Reilly labeled. They have experienced a 7% increase in same store sales of the O'Reilly stores and a 5% increase is same store sales of the newly acquired stores.

The technical price action in the stock has been impressive. The price has appreciated 17.88% in the last 30 days. Barchart gives it a 100% technical buy rating with all 13 technical indicators signaling a buy. The stock hit 13 new highs in the last 20 trading session. It trades around 49.31 with a 50 day moving average of 42.12,

Wall Street likes it too with 14 buy, 10 hold and no negative recommendations released. Analysts expect the sales to increase 7.10% this year and 7.60% next year. Earning per share after acquisitions are factored in are expected to increase 17.30% this year, 15.50% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth of 16.12%.

Investor sentiment is high with the Motley Fool CAPS members thinking the stock will beat the market by a vote of 210 to 13 with the All Stars in agreement by a vote of 75 to 5. The Wall Street calumniates Fool follows have had favorable articles 13 to 1.

Long term investors should expect this stock to increase to about 56.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.  [more]

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6 auto suppliers to consider

April 29, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: WMCO.DL , CTB , LKQ

Lately I've been watching all the ads on TV and other places in the mass media where Ed Whitacre the GM CEO struts across the scene and brags about how proud he is that GM paid back their TARP loans ahead of time and with interest to boot. Nowhere did I hear a "Thank you". As a taxpayer, I loaned him the money, my taxes funded the tax credit for clunker programs and we the American consumer bought his cars.

It was not his brilliance or the hard work of his management team that turned GM around it was the benevolence of the American taxpayers and consumers, plus a little luck from the problems experienced by Toyota that made all his new sales possible.

Mister Whitacre, my mom always told me that whenever someone does you a favor it would be very rude not to say "Thank you". Since you forgot to say "Thank you", I bet your mom is embarrassed.

I started thinking that if the auto industry is turning around maybe there might be some auto suppliers that might have recent price appreciation and glowing recommendations from Wall Street so I did a little screening and came up with a few that might make sense to consider for your portfolios.

When I look at an industry to mine for gems I usually use 3 yard sticks to get a feel of the likelihood that a stock will increase. The yard sticks are:
1 -- Technical Price Momentum -- Barchart  [more]

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Legget Platt - LEG has a great balance sheet and income statement

April 28, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: LEG

Financial Tides likes Leggett & Platt, Inc. ( LEG ) one of the leading manufacturers of engineered products serving several major markets. Sales and production are focused on residential furnishings, commercial furnishings, aluminum products, industrial materials, and specialized products. The company has facilities throughout North America and in numerous international locations.

The company cut costs, exited unprofitable lines of business and repurchased stock to improve it's financial strength. With a very strong financial position, the company is expected to continue increasing it's dividend as it has done for over 39 years.

Technical price momentum -- The stock has a buy signal on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators. The stock hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and also in 4 of the last 5 sessions. In the last 30 days the stock has appreciated 12.96%. It trades around 24.39 with a 50 day moving average of 21.29.

Wall Street buy recommendations - Analysts have 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations released and expect increased sales and earnings. Sales are estimated to increase 9.90% this year followed by 5.9o% next year. Earnings per share predictions are terrific with expected increases in EPS of 67.70% this year , 24.20% next year and maintain a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of over 15.00% a year.

Positive investor sentiment -- Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think this stock will beat the market by a vote of 119 to 42. The All Stars also vote positively by a vote of 46 to 11.

If you're looking for a financially strong balance sheet and income statement, recent price momentum, a Wall Street following plus positive investor sentiment look at Legget Platt Inc (LEG).

Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure : No position in LEG at the time of publication   [more]

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Cummins -- CMI has new contracts in China, India and Brasil

April 28, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CMI

Financial Tides picks Cummins Inc. (CMI) one of the leading worldwide designers and manufacturers of diesel engines. The company also produces natural gas engines and engine components and subsystems. Cummins provides power and components for a wide variety of equipment in its key businesses: engine, power generation, and filtration.

Recent changes in emissions regulations at the EPA have given the company's new high efficiency engines a sales advantage. New sales agreements in Brazil, China and especially with Tata in India will give the company an opportunity for new sales growth for at least the next 5 years.

Technical indicators from Barchart:

1 - 100% Barchart technical buy signal  [more]

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Autodesk -- ADSK -- strong and properly positioned

April 27, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ADSK

Autodesk ( ADSK) is one of the world's leading design software and digital content companies for architectural design and land development, manufacturing, utilities, telecommunications, and media and entertainment. Autodesk provides design software, Internet portal services, wireless development platforms, and point-of-location applications that empower customers in numerous countries to drive business and remain competitive. This is a very financially strong company and should benefit for increased technology spending when the economy turns around.

Barchart has given this stock a 100% technical buy rating and gets a buy signal from all 13 technical indicators. The stock hit 15 new highs in 20 sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. In the last month the stock has enjoyed an 18.14% appreciation in price. The stock trades around 34.85 with a 50 day moving average of 29.67

Analysts predict increases in sales of 2.20% this year and 6.40% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to increase by 14.10% this year, 27.40% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 15.37% annually.

Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with a vote of 713 to 52 that the stock will beat the market with the experienced All Stars in agreement 292 to 8. The Wall Street journalists Fool follows have given 16 positive articles.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no position in ADSk at the time of publication   [more]

Recs

4

Instead of financial reform how about enforcing the rules we have?

April 26, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: HUN , FELE

I really get upset when people offer suggestions with no thought behind them. Everyone in Washington keeps insisting that to fix the financial markets we need more rules and regulations and a lot more bureaucracy. My idea is that all we need is for the alphabet soup to start doing their job.

Investing in publicly traded companies should be a level playing field. We should all be able to read an annual report, other public filings or press releases and narrow our investments to companies that are having real increases in their sales and earnings. The problem is the alphabet soup did not do their job. Financial statements and press releases were worthless.

Who is the alphabet soup? I'm talking about CEOs, CFOs, CPAs, CFAs, SEC and of course S&P. All these people had a fiduciary responsibility to make sure that the press releases and public filings on publicly traded companies fairly represented the true financial results of the companies they were responsible for.

Over the weekend it was reported that a Moody's analyst and a Merrill Lynch investment banker exchanged emails that negotiated fees and the resultant ratings of securities. Higher ratings and higher fees should not be negotiated. A higher fee for a higher rating is a bribe in my book. If this report is true I think the prosecutors at the SEC should be sending out some applications to become a cell mate for Bernie Madoff.

Any of the alphabet soup that traded their fiduciary responsibility to the investing public for financial gain whether it be a higher salary, more profitable stock options, higher fees or continued employment needs to lose their jobs and receive an indictment. What they have done was not negligence it was out right fraud.

I don't want another committee or more rules, I want the current rules to be enforced. Those that broke them need to go to jail.

Mr. President, you can't give back to the investors the money they lost so how about some satisfaction of knowing that if you broke the rules you will be prosecuted and jailed. Send out the warning. Let's see some pink slips at the SEC and some indictments sent to the rest of the alphabet soup.

On a lighter note in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio I dumped Huntsman (HUN) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 day moving average and replaced it with Franklin Electric (FELE). They make submersible pumps and lately have had positive price action. Analysts are predicting not only increased sales but EPS growth of 34.10% this year, 20.20% next year and 14.00% for the next 5 years.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned   [more]

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Market is extremely strong

April 24, 2010 – Comments (8)

At the end of each week in Financial Tides, I like to clear my head of all the articles and newscasts that have clouded my vision during the week and look at just the facts. I use the data on Barchart to give me the 3 yard sticks to measure the market performance. Then I plan my strategy for the coming week.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing  [more]

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Thanks to Marketocracy, Barchart, MSN Money Central and Motley Fool

April 20, 2010 – Comments (1)

About 5 years ago after 35 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds, closed end funds and ETFs rated top picks by others I decided I could do a better job myself. I was reading Forbes magazines Best of the Web and decided to take their recommendations. In that issue they recommended Marketocracy as one of the top stock market simulation games and Barchart as one of the easiest stock screeners to use.

Soon my funds were getting green stars from Marketocracy meaning that they were beating at least 75% of the other 100,000 plus portfolios rated by Marketocracy. I begin asking questions in the forums and found the M100 guys -- Those top 100 out of 100,000+ to be very honest and giving of their time. A few even encouraged me to enter a contest sponsored by Marketocracy, MSN Money Central and Investor Place Media called the Strategy Lab Open. The winner of the contest would get a chance to be in a Strategy Lab contest against some real professionals on MSN Money Central. I'm not sure how but I won that contest and began writing articles for Top Stocks.

I have since retired and now write on-line columns on Barchart, MSN Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Main Street Investors and my own blog Financial Tides teaching others how to pick and manage their own investments.

This month Marketocracy gave top recognition honors to 3 of my simulated Marketocracy portfolios. They named my Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten Speculative Fund -- (VNSPC) to their M100 . Per their press release:

"M100 members have proven long term track records, and serve as the ambassadors of our top performing members. We have thousands of excellent investors who are beating the market, but only 100 make this list at any given time. These members receive many benefits for their participation in the m100, including free premium memberships, posting privileges on our forums, press opportunities, and cash. Marketocracy pays all m100 members based on the assets under management with our affiliate, Marketocracy Capital Management. "

They also compared simulated funds that had been in existence over 5 years against the top 50 mutual funds with 5 year track records. My Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten New High Fund (VMNHI) beat the #10 rated mutual fund, the Alger Speca A (SPECX) rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick . My fund was created in March of 2005 and has returned 76.36% since inception beating the S&P 500 return of 10.03% by 66.34%. Annualized results were 11.68% for (VMNHI) vs. 1.88% for the S&P 500 so I beat the benchmark by 9.81%.

They also compared my VanMeerten S&P 600 Fund (VMSIX) and found that my return beat the #27 top rated 5 year return of Fidelity's Select Software and rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick, My fund was created in November of 2004 and has returned 71.11% beating the 13.76% return of the S&P500 by 57.35%. The annualized rated of return of 10.44% beat the S&P 500 return of 2.41% by 8.03%.

I'd like to thank Marketocracy for the recognitions and Barchar for the excellent stock screens.

Please join me on my quest to beat the market by reading my blogs on Motely Fool, Barchart, Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Mainstreet Investors and of course my own blog Financial Tides.   [more]

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4

Stop the bus -- I want off!

April 19, 2010 – Comments (4)

The Financial Tide has become the Red Tide. There was a line in the Pogo comic strip: " We have met the enemy....and he is us!" What scares me the most is that all this deficit spending that is going on at the local, state and federal level all has to come from the same pocket book -- mine! I was watching one of the Tea Bagger rallies on TV and a woman had a poster with the picture of a baby and the caption:" I'm only 6 hours old and I'm already $46,000 into debt"

Back in the first quarter of 2007 when the stock market was down and looking like it was going to continue downward for a while, I personally started cutting back. I moth-balled my credit cards and begin to use only my debit cards. If I didn't have the money, I didn't buy it. My government seems to have never gotten the word.

All I hear is how they are considering trimming next years budget. How about this years budget? I've asked my friends that work for "the Man" if they have been asked to cut back. They all say no. They have been told if it's budgeted go ahead and spend it.

Here in Charlotte we are talking about laying off teachers, police, firemen and EMTs but we are still going ahead with highway beautification projects, side walks and even a trolley to a mall that is in foreclosure because they were already budgeted. People are being let out of jail to keep costs at the courthouse down.

Hey you guys in government! Many are unemployed or under employed so income tax revenues are down. Retail spending is down so sales tax revenues are down. Property values are down, people are filing for downward reassessments and foreclosures up so property tax revenues will be down.

When will my government at all levels stop spending like a drunken sailor? Does anyone have the number of the local Tea Bagger chapter?

I'm not sure what I as an individual can do, but I've got to do something. That's my money they are spending. Wait a minute -- They are writing IOUs and signing your name and mine. Did you give permission for someone to sign IOUs for you, I know I didn't.

Can anyone in government give me a definition of "fiscal responsibility". Let's hear your ideas.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.   [more]

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Weekly Market Report -- W/E 4/16

April 17, 2010 – Comments (0)

Each week end on Financial Tides we take time to forget all the TV and newsprint headlines and see what really happened in the market this week. Any of you old enough to remember Dragnet ? Sargent Friday would always say "Just the facts Ma'am" when anyone would ramble on. So let's go to Barchart and get just the facts. We use 3 different yard sticks to gauge the market because no single yardstick is perfect all the time.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks -- Much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Index still positive
1 - Index up on 4 of the last 5 days for a weekly gain of 1.17%  [more]

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Market did great this week

April 10, 2010 – Comments (0)

On Financial Tides I just try to give you the facts not the hype. Another week has passed and the talking heads on the TV were as confusing as ever. Every hour it was a different story -- Oil is up that's why the market is down -- Oil is up that's why the stock market is up -- Since 1933 the market has been more up than down on the 3rd Tuesday of each week. Rather than just try to tell you what happened they over analyze and try to find some explanation no matter how lame. Let's be consistent and use our 3 yard sticks to see where we stand.


Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the much narrower Dow 30
1 - Index was up by 2.49% this week -- That make 3 weeks in a row and better yet 3 months in a row
2 - The Index closed on Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
3 - Index is up 5.60% in the last 30 days
4 - Barchart's 13 technical indicators all signal a buy for a 100% technical buy rating

Barchart Market Momentum -- contains 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stock closing above their own daily moving averages for various time frames -- Good numbers for all 3 time frames  [more]

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Can you mine for gems in sector ETFs?

April 07, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: PEJ

All investors search for the "Holy Grail" of investing: an investment strategy that just can't miss. I know, I've been looking for it for over 40 years and haven't found it yet. I've had to change my strategy several times. I had a new idea recently and decided to try it out. I'd like to share it with you and see what you think.

Here's my idea: Find the sector ETF that is currently having the highest relative strength and try to hand pick the best stocks from that portfolio. It's the Willie Sutton Theory. Willie was a famous bank robber and was asked:"Why do you rob banks?" His reply: "Because that's where the money is!"

If as a group, these are the stocks performing the best then why not search for the gems in the mother lode?

This week the sector ETF having the best relative strength is the Power Share Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ). The fund is a mixture of stocks from restaurants, cruise lines, time shares, to Expedia (EXP), Home Shopping Network (HSNI) and even the World Wrestling Federation Entertainment Inc. (WWE), a basket of discretionary income stocks. A real mixed bag and since they include the word "Dynamic" is guess this is an actively managed ETF.

I used Barchart to make up a sample portfolio of the top 25 stocks in the ETF to see how it would rate and to my surprise I had 22 buy, 1 hold and only 2 sell technical ratings. Every single stock had a positive price appreciation in the last 50 days.

The ETF had a 19.34% return in the last 50 days verses the S&P 500 return of 8.95%. 22 of the 25 stocks beat the Index. The best return was Home Shopping Network (HSNI) at 66.22% and the worst was Starbucks (SBUX) at 7.81% just slightly less than the benchmark.

What do you think? Can analysing the fastest rising sector ETFs for gems be a solid investment strategy or am I following a pipe dream like trying to find the Lost Dutchman's mine somewhere in the Superstition Mountains of Arizona?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.   [more]

Recs

1

Mine for gems in sector ETFs

April 07, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: PEJ , HSN , SBUX

All investors search for the "Holy Grail" of investing: an investment strategy that just can't miss. I know, I've been looking for it for over 40 years and haven't found it yet. I've had to change my strategy several times. I had a new idea recently and decided to try it out. I'd like to share it with you and see what you think.

Here's my idea: Find the sector ETF that is currently having the highest relative strength and try to hand pick the best stocks from that portfolio. It's the Willie Sutton Theory. Willie was a famous bank robber and was asked:"Why do you rob banks?" His reply: "Because that's where the money is!"

If as a group, these are the stocks performing the best then why not search for the gems in the mother lode?

This week the sector ETF having the best relative strength is the Power Share Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ). The fund is a mixture of stocks from restaurants, cruise lines, time shares, to Expedia (EXP), Home Shopping Network (HSNI) and even the World Wrestling Federation Entertainment Inc. (WWE), a basket of discretionary income stocks. A real mixed bag and since they include the word "Dynamic" is guess this is an actively managed ETF.

I used Barchart to make up a sample portfolio of the top 25 stocks in the ETF to see how it would rate and to my surprise I had 22 buy, 1 hold and only 2 sell technical ratings. Every single stock had a positive price appreciation in the last 50 days.

The ETF had a 19.34% return in the last 50 days verses the S&P 500 return of 8.95%. 22 of the 25 stocks beat the Index. The best return was Home Shopping Network (HSNI) at 66.22% and the worst was Starbucks (SBUX) at 7.81% just slightly less than the benchmark.

What do you think? Can analysing the fastest rising sector ETFs for gems be a solid investment strategy or am I following a pipe dream like trying to find the Lost Dutchman's mine somewhere in the Superstition Mountains of Arizona?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.   [more]

Recs

1

Weekly Market Review

April 02, 2010 – Comments (0)

Ever weekend on Financial Tides we do a market wrap-up. It's not the weekend yet but since the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday my weekly market barometer report is a day early. I use the data on Barchart to find objectively what happened in the market. I use 3 different yard sticks because over the years I've found that no single indicator is 100% effective all the time but if you look at the market in several logical ways you might be able to look past all the headlines and figure out for yourself how to approach your investing in the future. Let's see what my yard sticks reveal.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30 -- Positive price momentum
1 - Up 3 days out of 4 for a net gain of 1.16% last week  [more]

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