In my last post on August 19, 2009, I stated that: [more]
How do people feel about Sirius now that some of the debt issues of 2008/2009 have essentially been resolved? Despite the dilution, if the stock recovers to $1.50 (essentially a triple from here) that would be an adjusted price of $3.00 prior to the dilution. Not crazy as long as they hold on to the subscribers they have.
I love this stock, seriously. Sirius is my largest holding (for better or worse). My average price is around $.65. I started buying north of $3.00 and continued buying at $.05. So what am I thinking about the recent run? I think we do this every time before a conference call. Shorts are scared about the POTENTIAL for good news and need to cover themselves just in case. Do I think we’re going to have a good conference call tomorrow? I doubt it. The economy is still in the tank. Cash for Clunkers is a great idea (and quite beneficial for Sirius) but won’t help the 2nd quarter numbers. So where does that leave us? My guess is Mel K is going to announce we lost 300k subs in the quarter. It’s going to be ugly and hurt. Mel K will announce that Sirius has recognized even more savings because of the merger (maybe $50 million) but that Sirius spent the money on marketing the Iphone Application. I know people are hoping that Sirius announces Howard Stern is coming to the Iphone Application. He’s not. Mel K shouldn’t bribe Stern either. Sirius needs to start moving away from Stern. Yes – I know that’s crazy speak. I got Sirius BECAUSE of Stern as did a lot of fans. But Stern is yesterday. Mel K needs to start creating value for tomorrow. I’ve heard a lot of whispers about what new technologies the recently launched satellites will provide Sirius. I only hope one of them works. I personally think if Sirius can offer a radio plus lo-jack option (don’t laugh) it would catapult the value of Sirius. If Sirius video is the wave of the future, let’s focus on it and start moving forward. A lot of stocks recently were trading for under $1 and have climbed back over. It’s time Sirius got some good news and joined the party. Hoping for that is like hoping for winning the lottery. Right now, I’ll just take some good news. Any good news. [more]