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Quick Thoughts on Netflix and Stand Alone HBO

October 16, 2014 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: NFLX , CMCSA

I red thumed Netflix for the second time probably a year or more ago under the premise that the real threat to Netflix came from the MPVD's (cable & telcos) who have orders of magnitude more money to spend on content than Netflix does. In short the MPVD's roughly split the subscription fee with premium content providers like HBO and Showtime. While Netflix is finacially equivalent to the premium content services they could not compete with the pocket books of the MPVD's should they (when they) decide to bypass these services and bid directly for content themselves. For a frame of reference Comcast video segment alone spent $5B on prgramming in 2013 which exceeded Netflix entire revenues of ~$4B for 2013. Imagine a combined Comcast, Time Warner in addition to already in the fold NBC and potentially licensing agreements with other MPVD's.   [more]

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O.T. MH370 Conspiracy Theory (They Know Where it is)

March 21, 2014 – Comments (9)

Let me start by stating I'm not a conspiracy buff; I think they found the remains of a weather balloon at Roswell, Oswald was a nut and killed Kennedy all by himself, Elvis is dead and Obama was born in Hawaii. I don't present my MH370 conspiracy lightly, however I think the implications of what we haven't been told but can figure out on our own, suggest investigators have to know where the plane is (but don't want the bad guys to know we know). The crux of my case comes down to my firm belief that anyone using high school geometry could plot the flight path and final destination of MH370 from the circles corresponding to possible places on earth that the plane could have been at each of the 7 satellite pings. The two big arcs that the media keeps mistaking for flight paths are just parts of one circle out of 7 as can be seen on the map in the middle of the story linked below.  [more]

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Is there anybody out there?

November 27, 2013 – Comments (1)

HBIO spun off it's HART unit a couple of weeks ago and I've used the contact feature on CAPS a couple of times since to alert them that it doesn't look like they've adjusted for this yet. It still doesn't appear to have been adjusted and I haven't heard anything from CAPS staff. They usually respond in a day or two. Did TMF officially orphan CAPS and I missed the announcement? Maybe 6 months ago or so there was a TMF staff member who posted about his own efforts working on a potential upgrade of CAPS to make it more relevant to investors. Did anything ever become of his efforts? I've put a lot of time into my CAPS portfolio and love the service. I'm hoping this isn't the beginning of the end of the service.  [more]

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Trading vs Investing

October 01, 2013 – Comments (2)

For the most part I try to stick to investing in companies that are undervalued. Once in a while I toy with the idea of trying to take advantage of a short term event that seems like it has a high probability of happening. I usually talk myself out of it; vacillating back and forth about potential outcomes. It didn't even occur to me to try to game a government shutdown however the aftermath so far confirms for me the futility of trying to out guess everyone else and the value of just trying to buy companies when they're cheap.  [more]

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