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April 2008

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9

Uh yeah, I'll take a quarter point cut with a side of dove and a diet misleading GDP

April 30, 2008 – Comments (12)

I enjoyed predicting what the Fed was going to do last meeting so much (see article: Step right up, place your bet...), that I've decided to do it again.  Like most people, I am looking for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter point in a couple of hours.  The key here is what its accompanying statement will be like.  In my opinion they should issue a dovish statement, or at least a truly neutral statement, which would be interpreted as being dovish anyhow.    [more]

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10

Observations from vacation: A great wolf, a rockin robin, Starsucks, and an amazing advance in sausage technology

April 29, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: WOLF , RRGB , SBUX

Greetings everyone.  I'm back from a two day vacation on which I forced myself not to use a computer.  I have a number of random investment thoughts that popped into my head during that time, here they are in a stream of consciousness format:  [more]

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11

Pain in the Bud?

April 25, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: BUD

Question, what U.S. company is the largest consumer of rice?   [more]

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14

Hilarious estimates, more pain for restaurants, & mmmmmmmmm beer

April 24, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: ABKFQ.DL , MBI , SBMRY.PK.DL

I normally don't pay much attention to what Wall Street analysts say, but some are better than others.  Goldman Sachs' stuff is usually pretty good, so I usually check out their "A.M. Headlines" when Charles Schwab e-mails them to me. 

At the top of each day's report Goldman posts any revisions that its analysts have made to their earnings estimates.  They usually change by a few cents here and there, but not today.  I laughed out loud when I saw Goldman's estimate changes for Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) this morning.  Here they are:  [more]

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11

Want tomorrow's financial headlines today? Read my blog.

April 24, 2008 – Comments (3)

Now I normally don't like to toot my own horn that much, but there has been some weird stuff going on that I have to mention.  Perhaps my crystal ball is just working really well lately.  I can't believe that financial journalists read my blog, but check out these amazing coincidences:  [more]

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13

The Government is inventing new ways to get your money. Time to short Amazon?

April 23, 2008 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: AMZN

Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) have been on quite a roll lately, surging from the low 60s at the end of February to today's close of $81 (with an eye-popping P/E ratio of 69).  I came across the following article this afternoon and it got me thinking about the future of on-line retailers: State tax man is taking on Amazon.com.  The premise of the article is that New York state is going to start charging sales tax on Internet purchases starting June 1st.  I hadn't heard this before, so I did some additional research on the subject and came up with this: Tax law may cause problems for online business.    [more]

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8

Deej's Top Pick Update: Philip Morris International reports great first quarter results

April 23, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MO

Philip Morris International's first quarter results, its first since being spun-off from Altria, look great. Its Q1 earnings rose 29.2% during the quarter to $0.89 per share, soundly beating the $0.77 per share that analysts were looking for. PM sold 2.2% more cigarettes last quarter than it did during the same period a year ago. The strength in PM's business was spread across all of its geographic segments, with each experiencing double-digit revenue and income growth. Currency benefits provided the company with a significant tailwind.

As if that news wasn't good enough, PM also raised its guidance for the year. It now espects its earnings for all of 2008 to rise by 14% to 16% to $3.18 to $3.24 per share.

In addition to talking about its results, Philip Morris International announced that it is purchasing several cigarette brands from Imperial Tobacco, including Bergerac, Interval, Picadura, and Van Nelle for $405 million.

Deej
Long PM   [more]

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8

Could the next bailout cost taxpayers trillions?

April 23, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: FNMA , FMCC

The Federal Reserve has already bailed out Bear Stearns.  One has to wonder if it will eventually have to bail out another financial institution and if so, who?  Could it be Fannie (FNM) and Freddy (FRE)?  S&P recently published an estimate that a bailout of them could potentially cost taxpayers $420 billion to $1.1 trillion!  (see article: The trillion-dollar mortgage time bomb).  This would dwarf the inflation-adjusted cost of $250 billion that the government spent to bail out the S&Ls...  [more]

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8

Time for Deej to refinance...the only question is when?

April 22, 2008 – Comments (4)

I've decided to tap the infinite wisdom of the CAPS community to take an informal poll to see when the best time to refinance my 6%+ mortgage into a 30-year-fixed zero point sub-six-percent mortgage will be.  I strongly believe that the time to do so is at some point in 2008.  The Fed has dramatically cut interest rates over the past year, but the problem is that banks have lost their appetite for risk resulting the lack of a corresponding move in mortgage rates.  I think that the Fed has got to be fairly close to being done cutting rates.  If I had to make an educated guess, I would say that they have another 50 basis points in cuts left in them for the rest of 2008, two 25 basis point moves.    [more]

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19

Saudi Arabia Said WHAT?!?!

April 21, 2008 – Comments (16)

It is an indisputable fact that global oil demand has been steadily rusing since the early 1980s.  If this trend continues, and I strongly suspect that it will, who will supply the necessary oil to meet this rising demand?  Let's take a look at some of top oil producing countries in the world to see if they are up to the task:  [more]

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9

Holy share dilution Batman!, Argentine strike to resume?, & an interesting ethanol buy (huh?)

April 21, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: PBR

I try to think of something interesting to write or rant about in my blog just about every day.  I haven't been having much trouble thinking of new ideas, but I'm just stuck today.  Perhaps it is the Azithromycin that I'm on and the tetanus shot that I had to get this morning as a result of getting a vampire-stake-like shard of wood stuck in the back of my leg this weekend (the word "splinter" doesn't do it justice).  Let's give it a shot so to speak (ouch).  [more]

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19

If you think ethanol stocks are bad now, wait until the other shoe drops

April 19, 2008 – Comments (7)

Here comes the pain!  If you think that stocks of ethanol producers have performed badly over the past year, you haven’t seen anything yet.  The other shoe may be about to drop.  As it stands, these companies are only profitable because the federal government requires ethanol’s use and because it provides them with massive subsities.  What if the government suspended the requirement that oil companies blend ethanol with gasoline.  Look out belooooooooooow. Impossible you say? Maybe not.  [more]

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19

Could the next oil boom be right here in the United States?

April 18, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: XTO , MRO

Last week, the United States Geological Survey published an estimate that the shale rock deposits called the Bakken Formation, which stretch from North Dakota to Montana, could hold as much as 3.7 billion barrels of oil (see article: Bakken Shale in US may hold 3.7 bln bbl oil - USGS).  If this estimate proves to be accurate, Bakken would be the largest single deposit of oil in the continental United States.  [more]

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12

What on Earth do automakers, airlines, & alternative energy have to do with "Foreclosure Prevention"?!?!?!

April 17, 2008 – Comments (2)

I've seen some complaints from people lately about blog posts on politics.  I find this interesting because few things have more impact upon the economy and in turn the stock market as the government can.  To bury your head in the sand while the government makes all sorts of absurd policy decisions is like giving away money.  Use them to your advantage in investing.  One can benefit from the government's mismanagement if they invest properly.  As long as the federal government keeps wasting our tax dollars and ringing up an ENORMOUS national debt, it is very likely that the U.S. dollar will continue to fall.  As you can see in the chart below, there have been lots of bear market rallies in the dollar over the past several years.  I suspect that we are due for another one at some point in the near future, but the trend is undeniable...DOWN.  [more]

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10

Watch out for those hurricanes

April 17, 2008 – Comments (3)

As I write this, natural gas is sitting at over $10.50 and oil is right around $115.  Their strength has basically been a function of increasing global demand, supply concerns with OPEC stating that it will not raise production for now while a plateau seems to have been reached in oil production in Russia and Mexico, and the falling dollar.  I haven't seen much talk about something that could really send oil and nat gas prices to the moon, a hurricane that hits the Gulf of Mexico.    [more]

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19

Sell Your Restaurant Stocks NOW!!!

April 16, 2008 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: BWLD

I actually am probably a little early on this call, so you don’t have to run out and sell your restaurant stocks immediately, but you probably should do so fairly soon.  Restaurant earnings might be pretty decent for the next quarter or two, but this sector is headed for a lot of pain in the relatively near future.  Why you ask?  Because a huge spike in meat prices is coming and consumer spending is going to slow. 

As everyone already knows, the prices of commodities, like corn and soybeans have exploded.  There is always a significant lag between an increase in feed cost and the subsequent increase in meat prices.  At least that is what happened the last time feed prices doubled in the 1970s.  When feed costs increase significantly as a result of a rally in corn and soybean prices, the first reaction of individual livestock feeders is to try to tough it out with the hope their competitors down the road will reduce production first.  It's sort of a game of chicken, so to speak.  When the industry at large fails to reduce production, individual livestock feeders begin to lose massive amounts of money and they are forced to begin to cut production. This "cut back" means the livestock producers will cull their sow (that's a female pig) herd and/or their cow herd.  In the short term, this will put more meat on the market, causing meat prices trade lower.  This is exactly what we have been seeing lately with meat prices.  [more]

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Barron’s is Wrong Series Post 4: New ethanol plants and declining oil production in major countries support the prices of food and oil

April 16, 2008 – Comments (2)

Man when I started saying that the Barron’s article that the prices of commodities are going to crash was wrong several weeks ago I had no idea that we would see such an explosive rise in prices so soon.  Oil and food prices have been going bananas lately (actually, I’m not sure exactly how much bananas cost right now, but I’m sure that they’re expensive).  I don’t know if we are due for some sort of short-term correction in prices, but long-term I have no doubt that food and oil prices are headed higher, much higher.  [more]

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31

Free CAPS Points, Get Yer Free CAPS Points

April 15, 2008 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: DCR

OK, I've given myself enough of a head start on this one.  I owe this one to the Bespoke Investment Group.  I am about to share some free CAPS points with everyone.  I only ask for a blog "rec" in exchange.  Pretty good deal right?  There's an ETF out there called MACROShares inverse oil, ticker symbol DCR.  As if being short oil wasn't a good enough investment these days, this ETF has a special twist.  If oil closes at over $111 for three straight days, this ETF basically ceases to exist.  That's right, at that point it will pay out investors its net asset value.  Because everyone is so bearish on oil right now, thanks Barron's for that, and because there are so few short vehicles to play the down side of it DCR currently trades at well above its net asset value, which at the time I heard about this trade was $3.83.  It is probably less than that now that oil has gone up even further.    [more]

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Crash your car? Turn that frown upside down, I’ve got an investment opportunity for you

April 15, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: LKQ

Lame title, I know, but I do have an interesting idea to write about so deal with it ;).  It’s funny how being OCD about investing changes your perspective on things.  I see the conversations that I have with people in a different light now than I used to, in a Peter Lynch sort of way.  Here’s a great example.  As some of you who have read my blog before know, during the day I work in a field that is related to the auto industry.  Yesterday I was speaking with the manager of a large dealership about how business is.  Not surprisingly, it’s pretty bad.  That’s not the interesting part of the conversation though.  What I found especially intriguing was when he told me that he has seen a significant up tick in auto parts sales to independent repair shops.  If this is a wide-spread phenomenon, it means that in tough economic times, like what we are currently experiencing, consumers are choosing to repair their vehicles to keep them on the road longer instead of buying something new.  Not only are they choosing to repair them, but they are doing so as cheaply as possible by going to independent repair shops rather than the more expensive dealership service departments.   [more]

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Largest Oil Discovery in 30 Years?!?

April 14, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: PBR

I'm surprised that this news hasn't received more press: Brazil may have new supergiant oil find.  Petrobras announced today that it may have found the world's largest oil discovery in 30 years off of the coast of Brazil. The new deepwater field, called Carioca, could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of oil equivalent. To put this in perspective, the Tupi offshore field was huge news when Petrobras announced its discovery last year. If reports of the size of the Carioca field are accurate, it would be five times the size of Tupi. For some reason, the Tupi find seemed like it received more press than this one.  Huh.  Shares of Petrobras soared today, up over 8%.   [more]

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Misleading headline of the day: Retail Sales Surprise with Gain of 0.2% in March

April 14, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BLOKA , CC.DL , GE

So we all woke up to the following headline this morning: “Retail Sales Surprise with Gain of 0.2% in March” (who am I kidding, I had been up for hours at that point, but you get the idea).  At first glance, one might think “Huh, that’s not too bad.  At least sales were up.”  This number is higher than the flat to down 0.1% retail sales number that analysts were looking for and the futures rallied after its announcement.  [more]

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Bernanke, an investment banker, and a taxpayer walk into a bar in China…

April 12, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: COST , WMT

Ben Bernanke, an investment banker, and a taxpayer walk into a bar in China.  The bartender strolls up to Bernanke and asks him what he wants.  Bernanke says, “I’ll have a beer, put it on taxpayer’s tab.”  The bartender serves him and then asks the investment banker what he’s drinking.  The investment banker says, “I’d like a bottle of your best champagne…you know what, make that twenty bottles for me and all of my friends here in the bar.  Put it on taxpayer’s tab.”  The bartender pours the drinks and then asks Mr. Taxpayer what he wants.  Taxpayer says, “I’d really love a drink, but I don’t have any money left.”  Bernanke turns to him and says “Don’t worry, I’ll just print more.”  The Chinese bartender overhears them and says, “Wait a second, you can just print this stuff whenever you want?  And it’s isn’t really backed by anything?  You’re all cut off.  Get out"  [more]

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Bernanke, an investment banker, and a taxpayer into a bar in China…

April 12, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: COST , WMT

Ben Bernanke, an investment banker, and a taxpayer walk into a bar in China.  The bartender strolls up to Bernanke and asks him what he wants.  Bernanke says, “I’ll have a beer, put it on taxpayer’s tab.”  The bartender serves him and then asks the investment banker what he’s drinking.  The investment banker says, “I’d like a bottle of your best champagne…you know what, make that twenty bottles for me and all of my friends here in the bar.  Put it on taxpayer’s tab.”  The bartender pours the drinks and then asks Mr. Taxpayer what he wants.  Taxpayer says, “I’d really love a drink, but I don’t have any money left.”  Bernanke turns to him and says “Don’t worry, I’ll just print more.”  The Chinese bartender overhears them and says, “Wait a second, you can just print this stuff whenever you want?  And it’s isn’t really backed by anything?  You’re all cut off.  Get out"  [more]

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GE's Results: The Market Hates 'Em, but I Love 'Em

April 11, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GE , CBI , FLR

I am not currently nor have I ever been a share holder of General Electric.  However, one can often learn a lot about how other companies' earnings results will look by checking out the results of monster companies, like Walmart, GE, etc...  The market obviously does not like the results of GE's first quarter, which it announced this morning.  Its stock is down more than 11% in pre-market trading as I write this.  I personally am not shocked that it had a rough quarter.  GE has the United States' seventh largest financial company in its stable of businesses.  Anyone who didn't know that financials had a rough Q1 has been living under a rock.  I guess that Mr. Market doesn't like the fact that GE missed even though it usually does a good job at hitting estimates.  Perhaps they should have pre-announced.  Who knows.  What I do know is that outside of financials, some of General Electric's other businesses are rocking.  [more]

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Barron's is Wrong Series Post 3: The latest news illustrates why the dollar has much further to fall

April 10, 2008 – Comments (7)

In my last post on why Barron's article stating that the prices of commodities like oil and grains are going to fall is wrong I focused on the increasing demand from emerging markets.  Today I am going to look more closely at another reason why the we are still in the early stages of the commodities boom, the falling dollar.  Most people who follow economics will agree that conventional wisdom states that large trade deficits, a high level of national debt, and low interest rates relative to other countries are all bad a currency.  For evidence that the U.S. dollar is going to continue to fall, one has to look no further than today's headlines:  [more]

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Transocean: The deeper they drill the higher their stock will go

April 09, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: RIG

Anyone who has ever read anything that I have written probably knows that I am very bullish on the price of oil long-term.  The much publicized collapse in commodities prices that Barron’s recently predicted has yet to materialize.  As I write this oil is sitting at over $112 per barrel.  Oil is becoming increasingly expensive for a number of reasons, including increased demand from emerging markets like China and India, the fact that there is a finite supply of it, the falling dollar, and most importantly for the purpose of this article because a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been picked.  Not only has a great deal of the easy to get at oil already been used up, but the higher oil prices that we have been seeing simply make going after it in places that were not economically viable in the past possible today.  One such place is deep down on the ocean floor, aka deepwater drilling.  Technically deepwater drilling is defined as any drilling activity that takes place at depths of 4,500 feet or greater.  I believe that deepwater drillers are poised to profit handsomely from the high price of oil that we are currently seeing.  [more]

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Transocean: The deeper they drill the higher their stock will go

April 09, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: RIG

Anyone who has ever read anything that I have written probably knows that I am very bullish on the price of oil long-term.  The much publicized collapse in commodities prices that Barron’s recently predicted has yet to materialize.  As I write this oil is sitting at over $112 per barrel.  Oil is becoming increasingly expensive for a number of reasons, including increased demand from emerging markets like China and India, the fact that there is a finite supply of it, the falling dollar, and most importantly for the purpose of this article because a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been picked.  Not only has a great deal of the easy to get at oil already been used up, but the higher oil prices that we have been seeing simply make going after it in places that were not economically viable in the past possible today.  One such place is deep down on the ocean floor, aka deepwater drilling.  Technically deepwater drilling is defined as any drilling activity that takes place at depths of 4,500 feet or greater.  I believe that deepwater drillers are poised to profit handsomely from the high price of oil that we are currently seeing.  [more]

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7

The solution to high food prices and matress manufacturers' woes

April 09, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: TPX , ZZ

Anyone who has followed the stocks of mattress manufacturers knows that they have been getting absolutely hammered lately as consumer spending has slowed and the housing market has fallen off of a cliff.  Well, I believe that I have found the answer to these companies’ problems.  Start marketing their products to a new audience…cows.  According to a recent article in the Cleveland Plain Dealer titled Waterbeds keep cows udderly content in Geauga County, cattle that sleep on waterbeds produce 20% more milk.  Think of the potential for this vast new market.  If companies like Tempur Pedic, Select Comfort, and Sealy could just tap a small percentage of the 98 million head of cattle in that currently live within the borders of the United States they could really juice their earnings.  This doesn't even get into the possibility of global expansion.  With a global population of an astonishing 1.53 billion cattle, a new bovine product line from conventional mattress manufacturers could produce an amazing windfall for investors.  Not only is there an enormous global market for this new product, but I don't see why it couldn't be expanded to eventually target sheep and goats.  Adding them into the mix would boost the potential market to 3.3 billion units.  Even if one takes the fact that some of these animals will likely share beds into account, we're talking huge numbers here.  As an added bonus, in addition to boosting these companies' earnings an inexpensive line of cow mattresses would perform a public service by helping to reduce the high milk prices that the government's absurd ethanol boondoggle has been forcing all of us to pay.  To me, this new product is a no brainer.  [more]

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Deej's Top Pick Update: The World's Top Investors are Juming into Philip Morris International

April 09, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: MO

According to a recent article in Forbes, tons of the best investors that its Marketocracy's M100 newsletter tracks the purchases of are "aggressively" buying shares of Philip Morris International (PM), putting more money into it than any other stock right now.  I have been closely following this stock since I did a full write up on it back in November, PMI / Altria: Poised to Smoke the Market, and I own shares of both PM and MO in real life and in CAPS.  Things are progressing as planned, since I did my extensive write-up on the company so I don't have a lot of new information to add right now.  If you don't mind investing in a company that sells tobacco products definitely make sure to check PM out.  I stongly believe that it will outperform the major indicies over the next several years.   [more]

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9

GM's Got Problems

April 08, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GM , F

Last week I wrote a piece on how terrible the auto industry is in the United States right now (Auto Industry Analyst: "current market for light vehicles in the U.S. is about as bad as I have seen it in the past decade.").  A number of interesting articles on the same subject have been published over the past several days.  I came across a good one in Fortune magazine this afternoon titled Rick Wagoner's worst nightmare.    [more]

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Watch the housing market collapse from the comfort of your own couch

April 07, 2008 – Comments (3)

A couple of years ago my wife and I stumbled across a television show on TLC called "Flip that House."  The show follows individuals as they purchase and fix homes with the intention of "flipping" them quickly to turn a profit.  The people that the show follows are usually located in the western United States, frequently in California.  I found it interesting, so I decided to use my DVR to always tape the last three episodes that have aired.  At first when I occationally tuned in to the show, most of the flippers...especially the professional ones who did this sort of thing for a living, usually made big bucks for their efforts.  Yet for some strange reason, whenever I watched I always found myself rooting against the flippers, absolutely loving it when they got crushed and either end up living in or renting out the home that they were planning on making a quick buck on.  Is is wrong for me to root for the flippers to get screwed?  Probably, but who cares I just can't help it.  It feels so good.  They had a large hand in creating the housing bubble which for years drove the price of housing up well beyond reach for hardworking people who just wanted a nice place for their families to live.     [more]

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It May be April, but Greenspan's not Fooling Me

April 07, 2008 – Comments (1)

Without getting into a debate about the merits of Keynesian economics and whether the Federal Reserve should have lowered rates to combat a recession, the fact is that under Alan Greenspan's watch the did Fed lower interest rates to an extremely low level for a longer than necessary period of time and then subsequently turned around and yanked the rug out from under everyone by engaging on a massive, rapid rate raising campaign (see my earlier rant on the subject here: Ben's Getting a Bum Rap, Blame Greenspan). I don't see how anyone can dispute that the low interest rates that the Federal Reserve provided helped to inflate the housing bubble.  Sure they were not the only cause, the loose lending standards that banks and brokers who were able to quickly turn around and securitize terrible loans to get them off of their books and the Wall Street machine that kept eating this terrible paper up are as much to blame as the Fed.  There's plenty of blame to go around.  But Greenspan cannot remain blameless.    [more]

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Nominate Your Favorite Book on Investing

April 06, 2008 – Comments (5)

Hi my name is Deej and I am an investment book addict.  I read everything that I can about investing and everything that is even remotely related to it.  I subscribe to Barron's, Smart Money, and Fortune.  To prove how lame I have become, I actually have a Borders' credit card ;).  I know, I need help, but reading as much as I can has helped me to become a much better investor.  I am always looking for books to add to my collection and I am seeking nominations from the intelligent CAPS community.  Here is a list of the best books that I have read recently and the ones that are on deck:  [more]

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11

Which Presidential Candidate is best for stocks?

April 06, 2008 – Comments (15)

As we rapidly approach this year's Presidential election in November, I have been debating with myself which candidate is the best for the stock market.  I figured that I'd share my thoughts on the subject with everyone and see what others think.    [more]

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Hello, Hello, Hello...Echo, Echo, Echo...

April 04, 2008 – Comments (8)

CNNMoney has a great article this afternoon that describes what is going on in the economy right now.  The piece echos a lot of what I have been saying about the economy lately.  It actually is pretty scary how much on the same page the author and I are.  I'm obviously not implying that the author has been reading my blog, just that he and I may be long lost cousins.  Hold on, I'll check who wrote it, I never look at authors' names.  Huh, Funny enough, I actually have spoken with and provided information to Chris Isidore a number of times in the past, though not in a couple of years.  He's a really nice guy and apparently we have the same view of where the economy is headed.  Here are a few quotes from the story that I completely agree with and in most cases have blogged about lately:  [more]

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How is the economy going to rebound when food and gas are so expensive and credit is so tight?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (3)

There has been a lot of optimism in the stock market lately, which I obviously welcome as someone who rarely shorts things in real life and who is usually fully invested in some sector of the market.  However, I just can't shake this pessimistic feeling that I have about things.  I'm trying to figure out why I am so down on the economy right now.  Part of if might stem from the fact that I work in a field that is related to the auto industry and that my wife first worked for a now defunct mortgage company and currently works in the corporate office of a major real estate company.  These industries are in rough shape.  An analyst who I highly respect, Dr. Stephen Leeb is very bullish on things right now (Market Update) and the Federal Reserve has injected an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the system.  Still, I can't shake the feeling that we are going to re-test the lows in the market before things are all said in done.  [more]

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Auto Industry Analyst: "current market for light vehicles in the U.S. is about as bad as I have seen it in the past decade."

April 03, 2008 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: GM , F , TM

While I love writing about stocks and learning about investing, it is not my main aka day job.  During the day I work as an analyst for the auto industry.  The above quote is something that I wrote about the U.S. auto market back in January.  Here's the full quote:  [more]

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Deej's Top Pick Updates: Sygenta, Chicago Bridge & Iron, and Philip Morris International

April 03, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SYT , CBI , MO

This morning I have a bunch of quick updates on the stocks that I have done write-ups on.  [more]

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The Government's Published Statistics Paint a Misleading Picture of the Economy

April 02, 2008 – Comments (9)

Let me begin by saying that I am not saying that the government is flat out lying to everyone, though that is probably closer to the truth than it should be.  To just make numbers up out of thin air would require too massive a conspiracy that would be next to impossible to keep a lid on because of the sheer number of people that would have to be involved.  What I am saying is that the government seems to be bending the statistics that it publishes and that they don't tell the whole story.  They often adjusts the methods that are used to calculate the numbers that they publish to serve their own purposes.    [more]

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Barron's is Wrong Series Post 2: Increasing Consumption from Emerging Markets

April 01, 2008 – Comments (10)

My first post about how wrong Barron's commodities bubble article is focused on how the U.S. ethanol boondlggle is going to force the price of corn to continue to rise over the next year:   [more]

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