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EverydayInvestor (< 20)

March 2007

Recs

2

Back in the 90s

March 16, 2007 – Comments (1)

Wow, my player score dropped to 70 at one point after my bad calls in the mortgage business. Time to pull myself back together. I'm back in the top 10%.

Recs

4

A better CAPS scoring system

March 16, 2007 – Comments (1)

Would be average score per pick per day divided by the daily standard deviation in pick score. This would give a risk-adjusted rating similar to a Sharpe Ratio. Why is this good? For one, it would reward less volatile strategies (such as my strategy of shorting bad ETFs trading above NAV) while being almost cheat proof.  [more]

Recs

2

USNA

March 16, 2007 – Comments (0)

Anyone remember ZZZZ Best? If not, google it. Its former founder and CEO is now a crusader against the type of fraud he used to do. He came out with a big report bashing USNA as basically a pyramid scheme. A similar company is Mannatech (MTEX).

Recs

2

When you're a quant you're a quant all the way . . .

March 14, 2007 – Comments (0)

My performance has fallen recently due to some big and bad bets in the subprime area (both bull and bear). I am not a trader and this is good evidence of why. I just added a bunch of stocks based on some quant strategies I use. My performance should go back up soon.

Recs

3

The joys of the pink sheets

March 13, 2007 – Comments (2)

OMG11111  [more]

Recs

2

Another microcap: Stormcat Energy (SCU)

March 12, 2007 – Comments (0)

On a fully diluted basis it is large enough for CAPS (thanks to a convertible offering), but CAPS doesn't count that. Although SCU looks very cheap, you have to have a good understanding of natural gas exploration to understand the company. Lot of risk there. One think I don't like is the president leaving for 'personal reasons'.

Recs

3

Too small

March 12, 2007 – Comments (1)

CAPS prohibits recs of stocks under $100 million market cap. Yet that is where the most misvalution is. I currently like a number of microcaps. Perhaps my favorite is Hastings (HAST). By any measure it is cheap--P/E, P/FCF, P/B. And it has a lot of room to improve profibability in the next couple years.

 

Recs

2

Yay AKZOY

March 12, 2007 – Comments (0)

14x EBITDA is a high price for Schering Plough to pay for Organon. Hopefully Akzo spends the cash wisely.

Recs

2

CNBC's million dollar challenge

March 09, 2007 – Comments (1)

I'm going to lose! The problem with CNBC's contest is there is no minimum number of picks and it is short term. In other words, the way to win is to bet big on a risky company and get lucky. My bet was NEW and so far that is not doing to well.

Recs

2

What's up today

March 08, 2007 – Comments (0)

All the crap I'm shorting is up big today. Ouch. OSTK still sucks and SUF is junk.

Recs

2

Woot!

March 05, 2007 – Comments (0)

I'm now ranked #278! Number 1, here I come! This despite my bad, bad call on FICC!

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