So, in the continual saga of me selling my house at a nice 20% loss from where I purchased it 3.8 years ago, I have been under contract, and the buyer had their inspection. And every single "action item" highlighted by the inspector that cost money to fix, they demanded that we fix. The most annoying part was that they demanded that we fix the garbage disposal, which is a top of the line model that did not work only because the safety cover had not been in place when the inspector tested it. I was not inclined to give in to their demands. My agent (who actually knows what he is doing and who earns his money) was annoyed by their demands as well. I was, however, leaning towards agreeing to fix one thing (besides the garbage disposal) in order to just close the deal. [more]
My bet is I give this up after a week; we'll see. This will mostly be my trading notes, small stuff that wouldn't make it on here or my real blog. Let me know what you think.
What do you get when you mix together an highly-priced OTC stock, where insiders are buying shares and the company is rapidly buying other companies using its shares, where 66 (100%) of CAPS members have panned the stock, and where a noted short seller of OTC stocks (me) has had an on-again off-again short position for the last 7 months? You get Tix Corp (OTC BB: TIXC.ob). [more]
Timothy Sykes, the boy wonder who turned $12,000 into $1.65 million while still a teenager, has abandoned his hedge fund Cilantro to re-create his day-trading achievement in full view of the internet on his new blog. Sykes is best described as young, brash, egotistical, and annoying. Of course, an impartial observer would describe me in much the same way. Timmay and I also share the preference for shorting stocks over buying them. But rather than being two peas in a pod, we are polar opposites: Tim is the quintessential short-term trader and I am the archetypal buy-and-hold value investor. [more]
If you are interested in signing up for Covestor, I have 5 invites available. Do to recent server troubles with Icarra, I decided to try out Covestor as a means of tracking my stock portfolio. I'll let you all know what I think of it.
Since so many of us CAPS players follow him, at least for CAPS shorting picks. You can find him at www.CitronResearch.com. Following are links to a few articles I wrote about him on my blog. [more]
They actually have bumper stickers that says "Kwame Killed My City" in Detroit. The annoyingly dumb mayor is now going down in scandal. Say "bye bye", Kwame. You are toast.
They are all negative. See Floyd Norris' post on this.
With apologies to Star Trek and the six trials a Klingon goes through prior to his marriage, here are the past and future trials in the US housing market. Unfortunately, we have only just gotten passed the first trial. [more]
And you thought Timmay Sykes was good ... [more]
In the grand scheme of things, the 20% stock market decline we have seen so far is very mild. Considering fairly high stock valuations (after correcting for cyclical peaks in earnings), the extent of the credit crisis, and the coming inflation, stocks could be headed for a Talespin. Of course, that could be rather amusing, so bring it on! [more]
Two women named Rose sounding a lot like the Indigo Girls in this cover of the Magnetic Fields song Book of Love: [more]
How do I know that the housing market does not suck? I have gotten my house (listed two weeks ago) under contract for just under 98% of my asking price. [more]
Seriously, how many hedge funds can one man blow up? Meriwether was a principal of LTCM, and his current fund is now down 24% on bond market woes.
Courtesy of F Wall Street. This is an awesome tool and is already saving me a ton of time.
See the nice synopsis on CXOAG investing blog.
Here's a chart for your perusal. Hmmm, which homebuilder seems overvalued?
Top 11, yay! Yeah, I'll be 13 again by close, but I'll take what I can get.
Can you guess the company? Today I bought XXXX, trading on the Naz. A small company, it has a market cap under $100m and is trading at a 40% discount to book. It fired its President last summer, despite him being the son of the founder. The company is operating right around breakeven.
A $100 donation to your favorite charity if you get this correct first.
One of the most egregiously overpriced stocks I have ever seen is MaxLife Fund Corp (MXFD.ob). I have been watching this for awhile, sitting on ever-growing losses in my real life and CAPS short position. With the stock up over 18-fold in under a year, there are two factors at play: touting or manipulation and momentum buyers. The problem is that neither of those sources of demand can continue indefinitely. One clue to the fall of such pumped up stocks is when volume disappears. While volume has always been erratic in this stock, the last week has seen continual low volume. [more]
See today's Forbes Informer, which has the following to say about Purple Beverage (PPBV.ob): [more]
Correctly predict the percentage change (and direction) of NROM.ob tomorrow, and maybe you should. If not, stay away from trading! I am normally very bad at predicting short term moves.
Disclosure: I may decide to have a position in NROM tomorrow, long or short.
Somebody at the SEC finally gets it. Punishment must be severe enough to deter future pump and dumpers. This fits the bill.
Emcore (EMKR) management hit a record for the vaguest and least informative rebuttal of criticisms of a company. In response to Citron Research's negative article about the Emcore, the company released the following press release: [more]
I've reached a new high CAPS ranking of 13. My goal is to be solidly in the top 10 by the middle of the summer. After that I'm gunning for Specbear. Because Specbear cannot--must not--continue to win at CAPS. Why is that? Because his name is Specbear. And because he has not updated his Top Fool saying in many months.
Punish the greedy, evil, and stupid lenders by taking your money out of weak banks. If enough people do this some of these banks (National City and WaMu, perhaps) will fail and we will adquately punish the investors and executives who ran these banks in unsound ways. [more]
I cannot figure out any way to do so NOT geared towards professional money managers, and their salespeople won't give me the time of day. I really want to have access to Carol Remond's articles but don't want to pay $1k per month (or more). Any suggestions?
My newest favorite penny stock pump: Purple Beverages (PPBV.ob). The company has one product, an acai berry juice drink. Amazingly no one has thought of that before. Oh wait, nevermind--they have. Overvalued, with few sales, assets, and negative earnings, the company does not deserve its $134 million market cap. PPBV is the weakest link. Goodebye. [more]
China Transinfo Technology (OTC BB: CTFO) has both a complicated structure and a complicated and not very good history. All info below from the most recent prospectus (announcing that owners of 25% of the shares outstanding are about to sell their holdings). [more]
Today's a good day! Our favorite short seller blasted Emcore Solar (EMKR) today and I decided to follow on his cottails. So far the stock is down 15% and it looks like its freefall could continue. [more]
Are you surprised that there are so many high-priced garbage stocks that people like me can short in CAPS for easy points? Don't be. The SEC does not take these pump and dump scams seriously. Here are a couple examples: [more]
If so, and if you like risk, why not short Bear Stearns (BSC) right now? Trading at $3.60, if it goes into bankruptcy or if the JP Morgan buyout goes through at $2 it will be a slam dunk. I just shorted a tiny bit IRL and on CAPS. This is not something I would do if I wasn't tracking the price during the day and I would not use very much money for it.
RMDX.ob has been a very pesky stock. It has no regard for the company's fundamentals. Finally today it crashed, down over 80% from its high. Speculators who bought it were finally rewarded for their foolishness. And foolish they were, because a few smart people (as well as a bunch more on CAPS) have hated the stock for a long time. [more]
I have many great things to say about Tracy Coenen, who is a blogger, author, and above all, a forensic accountant. I love her blog and I find her to be witty and intelligent. As a short seller I am also something of a fraud connoisseur, so I appreciate what she does. I eagerly anticipated her first book, Essentials of Corporate Fraud. She was kind enough to let me review before it was published, for which I thank her. [more]
Eliot Spitzer, governor of the state of New York, former NY attorney general and scourge of Wall Street, today announced his resignation. Mr. Holier Than Thou Anti-Corruption evidently had a thing for prostitutes. The sanctimonious bully fell upon his own sword, in more ways than one. [more]
The good thing about RSS is that you get the news as quickly as anyone. I read Sharesleuth's new article about China Fire and Security Group (CFSG) before the market open and thought about shorting the stock at the open. I held off because it was already down 20%. As of right now it is down 50%. Oops. [more]
Despite Exmocare (OTC BB: EXMA, formerly 1-900 JACKPOT) being a horridly overvalued useless piece of trash with no sales and no significant book value and no chance of ever being worth one-tenth of its market cap, its stock has gone up since I pledged the profits from my short position in the stock to charity. The 1st Annual GoodeValue.com Short-a-Thon was a failure and raised $0 for multiple sclerosis research after I closed out my short position at a loss. [more]
I love IBKR as a brokerage, but I would never own a stock with an ownership structure like this (see its prospectus from a year ago for details):
You can see it here. Priced to move at $169,847. For anyone else out there selling, it generally helps to price it right. My house has been on the market for one week and I have already had it shown 6 times and have one inadequate offer. [more]
Read it here.
Dow 10 million, here we come!
Thank you to Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) for now allowing buying Vanguard Mutual funds (with automatic DRIP) and bond trading. As you all may know, I am a big short seller, which is why I use IB. There are many other reasons to love them, such as a great platform, portfolio margin, access to many markets throughout the world (they just added Mexico), and cheap trades (I pay $1 to trade 200 shares). [more]
Exposing Small-Cap Fraud is an award winning series from a few years ago by the wonderful Carol S. Remond, an author for Dow Jones newswires that you should be reading. Read it online as a PDF. She has recently written about some of my favorite stocks, including Remote MDX and MaxLife Fund Corp. (Links are to copies of her articles on a stock bulletin board. Her articles are not generally available without subscribing to Dow Jones Newswires, an expensive service geared towards investment professionals). [more]
My February performance more than made up for a lackluster couple of months. March has already been pretty good to me as well. Go to Icarra to see more details on my performance. [more]
This maxim was proven correct today by the nice slide in Lighting Sciences Group Corporation (LSCG.ob). Like many speculative stocks, when it decided to go down, it went DOWN, and it is now down 60% in the last two weeks. [more]
Today I bought some MGV (Vanguard Mega-cap value ETF) and MUB (iShares Muni Bond ETF). MUB is the best mid- to long-term muni-bond ETF out there--reasonable fees (though still too high, at 30bp gross or temporarily 25bp net), good diversification, and good liquidity and tiny bid/ask. It definitely beats TFI, which has a significant bid/ask and is trading at a 1% premium to NAV.
Because I just picked GOOG as outperfom on CAPS. Yeah, deep value investor Michael likes the GOOG. Its valuation is now reasonable enough considering its potential for further growth.
I still wouldn't buy this in real life, but we'll see what happens.
Feel free to drop by my other blog for some self-congratulations about vanquishing Continental Fuels (OCT BB: CFUL). This was my first big kill as a short seller. I started shorting it around $2.70 and rode it down to $0.50 before leaving to find other targets. The stock is now at about $0.03 and it remains overvalued. [more]
Yeah, we're in a recession. Yeah, retail is not the place to be. But still, should a seriously fast-growing company in a great niche like DSW be trading at a trailing P/E of 10? I have followed this company since it went public, and I would be willing to own the company as it treads water while its competitors see huge declines in profitability. DSW is like the Target of shoes--trendy, cheap, and a lot more fun to go to than the competitors. Big box stores have dominated so many corners or retail, and it time for big box shoe stores to dominate. [more]
In my real life portfolio I added RZV (small cap value ETF), TFI, and SHM (both of which are municipal bond ETFs). For those in the highest two tax brackets, municipal bonds are looking like a great deal now, yielding above treasuries. With current market troubles it pays to be diversified, and those who may need to sell in the next few years should stay out of long-term muni bonds.
I went long Idearc (IAR) this morning (in CAPS only). It is way leveraged (yay 10 to 1 debt / equity ratio!), but it puts out plenty of cash flow. While yellow pages are a declining business, they will decline slowly, and the business will have plenty of time to pay off debt and pay nice dividends.
Please see my other blog, GoodeValue.com, for an informative post on a quantitative value-investing strategy based on the work of Joseph Piotroski. Feel free to comment here or there. [more]
So, in just about any other business, if you are buying electronic something electronically, with no human involvement, you would expect to receive it instantly or immediately after buying it. But someone forgot to tell the brokerages that. Stock trades still are not settled until 3 days after the trade, even though there are no longer any stock certificates to send across town. Huh? [more]