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Valyooo (46.21)

June 2013



Change the format of how threads slip to page 2

June 11, 2013 – Comments (7)

Am I the only one who wishes CAPS would be like other forums, and have the first blog on the page be the one most recently commented on? I often forget about blogs I commented on after they are off the front page, I dont want to have to click follow on every single one



Would the aggregate stock market rise with fixed money supply?

June 10, 2013 – Comments (12)

Before I start the question I am really getting to, let me post what I am not talking about
1) Yes, some stocks would go higher as they become better and better, while other stocks would go down because they have a bad business model
2) I know there would probably never be a fixed money supply.  There definitely is not with paper money, but even with gold as money, as the aggregate prices fell over time due to innovation and efficiency, the increase in the relative value of gold would make it more profitable to mine until it hit an equilibrium at a higher supply
3) I know the stock market and economy don't have to be the same thing.  Overall lower prices and increased velocity is good regardless of what the stock market did
4) Assume a fixed p/e and a fixed global outlook.  Obviously day to day, month to month, fluctuations would happen regardless.  P/e will change, drought and war would hurt prices, etc.  I am talking about over the very long term (25+ years)
So my question is, would the AGGREGATE MARKET rise in value over time?  Over time, prices of everything fall due to efficiency with a fixed money supply.  Input prices fall, but so do output prices. So profits should stay the same.  More goods will be produced, society would be better off....but would the overall level of earnings stay the same? (Assuming a fixed P/E)
Thanks in advance  [more]



Stocks vs high yield bonds

June 07, 2013 – Comments (72)

Not much to say, but I would like some peoples opinions on stocks vs high yield bonds?  [more]



"Healthy corrections"

June 07, 2013 – Comments (8)

Often times I here somebody say something like "the market needs a correction to fuel itself for the next leg up"  [more]



Earnings growth....long term, is the rest just all noise?

June 05, 2013 – Comments (26)

So often when people analyze financial statements and earning reports, there are many things that are looked at.  ROIC to see how well the company is employing capital.   Debt ratios to see liquidity.  Margins to see how the company would be able to handle a recession or inflation.Organic growth, book value, etc.  Then there are things besides the statements themselves, such as "I have used their product and it is fantastic".  Also, things like "the CEO pays himself too much and uses too much company money to buy stupid things like private jets, etc." My question is, long term, why does anything besides earning growth matter?  [more]



Long term increase in the monetary base?

June 04, 2013 – Comments (1)

Has does the monetary base increase long term?  When the fed expands the money supply it does so by buying treasuries.  When the treasuries mature, the government has to pay back the principal.  This should drain the money supply.  Now as long as the debt keeps expanding, I get how MB can stay expanded, but there have been decades where the MB expanded while debt decreased.  How can this be so?  Keep in mind I am talking about monetary base, not including bank credit  [more]

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