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alstry (35.36)

April 2008

Recs

13

GDP-Gross Distortion Please

April 30, 2008 – Comments (1)

GDP increased because of an inventory build?  [more]

Recs

6

SPF Concealing Earnings?

April 30, 2008 – Comments (2)

Traditionally, SPF announces in early April its Q1 earnings release date and CC for the end of April.  All public builders have announced dates so far.  NOT SPF!!!!  [more]

Recs

10

Bankruptcies Pouring In Now!!!!

April 29, 2008 – Comments (3)

LandSource bankruptcy filing expected in May as cash runs out

New York, April 29 (LCD) – LandSource Communities Development is expected to file for bankruptcy within two to three weeks, lenders said today following a private call. A filing would push the default rate in the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index to 1.25% by principal amount, and to 1.91% by number of issuers.   [more]

Recs

8

Wall Street HB Analysts Criminal???

April 29, 2008 – Comments (3)

Why are Wall Street Housing Analysts blatently deceiving manipulating projections?  Why is the SEC or  other regulatory body not stepping in and addressing this nonsense?  [more]

Recs

18

MTH-What a JOKE!!!

April 28, 2008 – Comments (2)

How does a company miss earnings expectations a few days after a public offering?  Don't you think the banks knew EXACTLY what earnings would be in order to file for the offering a few days ago?  How this game continues is beyond rational thinking.  [more]

Recs

15

Analysts REALLY Lying on RYL

April 28, 2008 – Comments (3)

Current analyst estimates for RYL's revenues next quarter is about $558 million or down only 24.6% from last year.  [more]

Recs

9

How Low Will The Banks Go?????

April 27, 2008 – Comments (1)

“The banks are so eager to unload repossessed houses that they’re discounting them at 40% to 60% below market value and selling them, generally speaking, in ‘as is’ condition.”  [more]

Recs

15

Will Most HBs go BK in 2008?

April 26, 2008 – Comments (14)

FloridaBuilder and I have a couple of side bets running.  One formally one informally.  The former is whether SPF or WCI will go BK first.  The latter whether most public HBs go BK or near BK in 2008?  [more]

Recs

9

CA Builder Defaults Exploding

April 25, 2008 – Comments (2)

First it was Kimball Hill that went BK.  Then Renyen and Bardis principal declares personal bankruptcy.  Now SunCal Cos. defauted on its $235 million dollar loan on its Bakersfield golf course community.  ALL IN ONE WEEK.  [more]

Recs

7

HBs at the Bank's Mercy

April 24, 2008 – Comments (0)

Moody’s says Homebuilders at the Mercy of their Banks

Several lower-rated homebuilders survived 2007 merely because of the leniency of their lending groups. As 2008 unfolds, these same homebuilding companies will once again find themselves at the mercy of their banks, according to Moody’s.  [more]

Recs

14

OUCH!!!!! S&P Blows smoke up investors' *** and RYL padding earnings????

April 23, 2008 – Comments (3)

Less than a week ago, S&P estimates RYL's revenues at $665 million.  We all know what I thought about that estimate......without RYL dumping a bunch of land, with 40% lower backlog and 50% fewer specs, it was impossible for RYL to generate anything close to S&P's 6% revenue decrease estimate.  [more]

Recs

9

Should S&P be prosecuted????

April 23, 2008 – Comments (1)

For intentionally putting out false guidance on RYL?    [more]

Recs

8

S&P vs. Alstry on RYL

April 19, 2008 – Comments (4)

S&P:  [more]

Recs

9

Are We Blind???? Time to OPEN your eyes!!!! No one else seems want to tell

April 19, 2008 – Comments (3)

Foreclosures exceeding sales in California.  Debt defaulting at an alarming rate.  Billions and Billions, Hundreds of Billions being written off by banks.  AND THE DEFAULTS ARE ACCELLERATING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   [more]

Recs

11

Analyzing the "Analysts" on Ryland

April 19, 2008 – Comments (2)

Last year RYL ended Q4 with about $1.3 Billion in backlog and twice as many specs as this year. In a better selling environment and twice as many specs, RYL generated about $700 million in revenues or converting something better than 55% of backlog.

This year, RYL ended the quarter with about $786 million of backlog and half the specs of last year in a much more difficult selling environment. With half the specs, if RYL were to convert a similar backlog percnetage, they would be lucky to generate $400 million in revenues.

Factoring the lower spec count and more difficult selling environment, it is more likely RYL will only be able to generate about $325 million in revenues at much lower margins(save material land sales).

Currently, consensus analyst estimate is about $458 million, or higher than last years conversion rate when the company had twice as many specs and a better selling environment?

What a joke that these guys get paid for this kind of work.   [more]

Recs

8

Unemployment Skyrocketing

April 18, 2008 – Comments (3)

For the past few weeks, I have diverged from HBs to job losses.  The two go hand in hand.  No Job no house.  [more]

Recs

9

No Credit No Spending No Jobs

April 17, 2008 – Comments (3)

Over the past seven years, banks loaned cities, businesses, and individuals trillions and trillions of dollars.  You think money supply grew, debt grew exponentially more.  Debt spends exactly the same as money.  If you don't believe me, just take your credit card to Target and see what you can buy.  [more]

Recs

11

New York in Trouble??????

April 17, 2008 – Comments (6)

Half of Bear Stearns workers likley to lose their jobs.  Merrill cuttng 10% of its workforce.  Citi announcing cutting 20% of ALL spend.  Estimates are for about 35% of Wall Street workers to lose their jobs.  [more]

Recs

8

Death Spiral Phase

April 17, 2008 – Comments (6)

We are now at the point in some markets that foreclosures are exceeding sales.  This is where things get really out of hand.  [more]

Recs

11

10% Unemployment Rate By Summer

April 17, 2008 – Comments (5)

Right now the unemployment rate is over 5%.    [more]

Recs

8

Amazing Quotes Today

April 17, 2008 – Comments (3)

"I've been in business in 39 years," [Chief Executive Mike Ullman] said. "I don't think I've seen anything as unpredictable. Our entire business is soft because of lack of traffic. We can't give much guidance because there's no visibility."  [more]

Recs

8

HB Meritage Wants Your $$$$

April 16, 2008 – Comments (7)

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., April 16, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH - News), a leading U.S. homebuilder, announced today that it will file a preliminary prospectus supplement for a proposed public offering of up to 4,000,000 shares of common stock. All shares are being offered by Meritage Homes. The Company will grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 600,000 shares to cover over-allotments, if any. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering. Meritage plans to use the proceeds received from this offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes.  [more]

Recs

9

IBM's Earnings Tonight

April 16, 2008 – Comments (6)

As you know, I have been beating the drums about financial institutions laying off people and governments being forced to make budget cuts due to declining tax revenues.  [more]

Recs

14

Worse Than The Great Depression

April 16, 2008 – Comments (5)

We now see pundits on TV, who were saying everything is fine a few months ago, comparing stats to the Great Depression to justify how much better off we are today.  Great!!!!  [more]

Recs

12

America's Economic Suicide

April 15, 2008 – Comments (16)

We stopped making things.  Out dot.com craze bloomed and passed.  We were stuck.  How to keep the engine running when there is no fuel?  Just loan money.  If you loan enough people money, they will spend enough to make everything boom.  And boy did we loan and so so many borrowed.  [more]

Recs

9

S&P vs. The Facts

April 15, 2008 – Comments (3)

The Facts:  [more]

Recs

9

So CA Home Sales Crash in March

April 15, 2008 – Comments (6)

Numbers from the Southern California Multiple Listing Service show that total proceeds from home sales last month amounted to just over half of what home sellers reaped in March 2007, the Pacific West Association of Realtors reports.  [more]

Recs

10

BUY BUY BUY sell?????

April 14, 2008 – Comments (2)

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. corporate earnings season got off to an ``awful'' start and stocks will continue to fall, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.   [more]

Recs

14

Wave II About to CRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

April 13, 2008 – Comments (4)

FloridaBuilder its about time to come out of retirement.  [more]

Recs

11

What is SPF's plan????

April 12, 2008 – Comments (3)

The only fact in evidence on March 21 regarding the departure to retirement of Stephen J. Scarborough from the CEO post at Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE:SPF) on March 20, and his replacement with independent director Jeffrey V. Peterson, was that the move was sudden....  [more]

Recs

19

What is anything worth???? Goldman recommends shorting

April 11, 2008 – Comments (9)

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded shares of General Electric Co. to ``neutral,'' saying the company's surprise first-quarter profit decline raises ``credibility concerns.''  [more]

Recs

10

The Beginning or End?

April 11, 2008 – Comments (1)

Three months ago Mr. Paulson said everything was great, now he says the economy is slowing rapidly.  Many say we face the worst financial crisis since The Great Depression.  [more]

Recs

8

Can Anyone Retire Anymore????

April 10, 2008 – Comments (8)

A confluence of adverse forces – notably falling wealth and rising inflation – is making many Americans less confident about their well-being in retirement.   [more]

Recs

17

Analysts SANDBAGGING Centex???

April 10, 2008 – Comments (5)

As this blog is written, current consensus estimate for CTX is a loss of $2.20 per share this quarter.  The low estimate is a loss of $3.70 per share.    [more]

Recs

11

35% Unemployment!!!!!

April 09, 2008 – Comments (8)

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Kenneth Moelis, the former president of UBS AG's investment bank, said Wall Street firms may have to eliminate as much as 35 percent of employees as leveraged lending dwindles and the pace of mergers and acquisitions slows.   [more]

Recs

14

HB Tax Rebate Great Idea!!!!

April 09, 2008 – Comments (6)

Only if every homebuilder executive rebates to the government every dime of bonus and stock profits made during the years of the effective rebates.  [more]

Recs

10

SHUT DOWN S&P!!!!!

April 08, 2008 – Comments (4)

The ratings agency that brought you AAA rated toxic debt now mathematically lies about it ratings on homebuilder SPF.  [more]

Recs

8

Centex Giving Away Land????

April 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

I just returned from a trip to Palm Coast, Florida.  It is a very nice golf course resort area North of Daytona Beach, FL where CTX has a significant presence(and shrinking rapidly as it appears that they are trying to get the heck out of Florida completely).  In one of their active communities, the promised pool is still an overgrown lot.  [more]

Recs

6

Is anyone hiring?

April 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

"And lastly WaMu said it will close all remaining standalone home loan centers and lay off 3,000 workers.....— WaMu has had a large campus in Irvine, as well as home loan centers and branches in various cities."  [more]

Recs

13

Our Government Lying????

April 08, 2008 – Comments (6)

April 7, 2008, 10:13 pmFDIC Chairwoman Calls for Activism

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair said Monday policy makers needed to consider a more “activist” government response to prevent an escalation of foreclosures even if such measures aren’t “politically popular.” In a speech to the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association at a Washington hotel, Ms. Bair said policy makers must be “honest” with the American people about the need for such a move, adding that it would likely include some federal spending.  [more]

Recs

10

Bye Bye Middle Class

April 07, 2008 – Comments (4)

MONROVIA - Pawnshop owners like Monrovia Mayor Rob Hammond are noticing the return of a regular harbinger of bad economic times - more white-collar workers in their stores.   [more]

Recs

10

Food Riots in America??????

April 07, 2008 – Comments (2)

October 2007  [more]

Recs

7

10% Unemployment well under way.......

April 07, 2008 – Comments (3)

CA cutting 10% of its budget.  Florida tax revenues evaporating.  NWA and American Airlines institute hiring freeze.  Four airlines shut down last week laying off all the workers.  ViCorp shutting down 50 restaurants laying off about 2000.  Retailers everywhere shutting down stores.  Strip mall vacancies hitting a ten year high.  Pharma companies cutting sales reps and management left and right.  Residential construction down 50%.  Now this:  [more]

Recs

10

Who is giving our president advice?

April 07, 2008 – Comments (4)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The recently enacted fiscal stimulus package will add 1.5% to the economy, President Bush said Monday. The stimulus package should be given a chance "to kick in," Bush said at a meeting with business leaders. He also acknowledged consumers are still hurting, citing worry about the cost of fuel in particular.  [more]

Recs

16

It's Income Fools

April 07, 2008 – Comments (1)

Does anyone really get it?  [more]

Recs

14

The MOTHER of ALL BUSTS

April 05, 2008 – Comments (4)

4 Airlines shut down in one week.  Aloha, ATA, Champion, and Sky Bus.  [more]

Recs

14

10% Umemployment?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (3)

Consumer credit delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2007 reached their highest levels since 1992, according to the American Bankers Association’s Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin. The composite ratio, which tracks eight closed-end installment loan categories, rose 21 basis points to 2.65 percent of all accounts in the fourth quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  [more]

Recs

8

What Builder Tax Break?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (0)

Homebuilders Get Breaks From Congress
Thursday April 3, 11:32 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer Builders, Mortgage Companies Get Additions, Subtractions They Asked for in Senate Housing Deal WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homebuilders and the mortgage industry are emerging as big victors in a bipartisan agreement reached by Senate leaders on legislation designed to limit the housing crisis.

The $15 billion Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008, expected to be debated Thursday afternoon on the Senate floor, is drawing fire from critics who say it would do little to actually prevent foreclosures. The bill contains a $6 billion emergency tax break that would let companies use losses from 2008 and 2009 to offset profits earned over the previous four years, instead of the usual two-year timeframe.  [more]

Recs

9

Why Die?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (2)

I see these signs driving along highways where there have been fatel accidents.  They are supposed to be reminders to drive carefully with your head up.  [more]

Recs

17

Lies and Analysts' Lies

April 02, 2008 – Comments (7)

First analysts valued public HBs at price times earnings.  When earnings were gone then analysts started using price to book value.    [more]

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