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alstry (35.03)

May 2008

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10

Is SPF's management LYING to raise money?

May 31, 2008 – Comments (5)

SPF is trying to sell hundreds of millions of dollars of its stock to shareholders and an investment fund.  It is trying to sell those shares at $3.05 while representing its bookvalue is around $10 per share.  [more]

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9

So where are we now---Really?

May 31, 2008 – Comments (7)

In looking at the market or government statistics everything seems fine.  Things seem to be chugging along.    [more]

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11

Inflation and Recession-What is the solution?

May 30, 2008 – Comments (5)

Wages falling for many.  [more]

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9

Silly Soros-Tricks are for kids

May 29, 2008 – Comments (8)

 "I think this is probably more serious than anything in our lifetime," he says. In short, his feeling is that the United States and Britain are facing a recession of a scale greater than the early-1990s, greater even than the 1970s.

"I think the dislocations will be greater because you also have the implications of the house price decline, which you didn't have in the 1970s - so you had stagflation and transfer of purchasing power to the oil producing countries, but here you also have the housing crisis in addition to that."   [more]

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9

Time for RISING intrest rates???

May 29, 2008 – Comments (5)

Inflation seemingly out of control.  [more]

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14

How bad will this get???

May 28, 2008 – Comments (12)

Consumers are supporting $7 Trillion more in debt than a few years ago.  [more]

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13

Do Analysts have ANY INTEGRITY!!!!

May 27, 2008 – Comments (4)

Some commentary on today's commentary off of Dow Jones:   [more]

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13

In interesting legal dilema for SPF

May 27, 2008 – Comments (11)

SPF annouced that they are raising more cash than many expected they needed.  In previous posts, I stated they needed at least $500 million.  The number that was announced was right about there.  [more]

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9

A little more commentary on the SPF deal

May 27, 2008 – Comments (1)

From the legal filing today(commentary in italics)........  [more]

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10

SPF's Dilutive Offering

May 27, 2008 – Comments (4)

MP Fund will buy $381 million of new preferred stock convertible into 125 million shares at $3.05 per share.  [more]

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11

Middle Class Hungry??? Marshmallow Fluff for 14 days!!!!!

May 26, 2008 – Comments (3)

FELLOW CAPS-I DON'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP!!!!!!   [more]

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8

An Investing Lesson Learned????

May 26, 2008 – Comments (12)

I have been accused and chastised on a number of issues this weekend.  Take the following quotes from Bellard and use then as a learning lesson.  [more]

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9

Weeds As Far As The Eye Can See

May 25, 2008 – Comments (2)

Yesterday, I drove north on Highways 5, 99 and 70 into that Yuba County growth frontier that offered such a great relief valve earlier this decade for people with jobs in Sacramento who couldn't afford to buy houses in Sacramento.

It had been a few years since I've seen the place - especially those giant master-planned communities of Edgewater and Plumas Lake that rose off the flat lands almost overnight. I am telling you: it is hard to overstate what a fall they have taken.

 I knew sales have been slowing for a couple of years up there as it became cheaper to live in Lincoln or elsewhere near Highway 65 and to skip the commute. Now, gasoline is so expensive - $4.19 yesterday at the Shell station on the exit ramp to Olivehurst's Edgewater - that people have to think hard and long about buying up there and driving 40 or 50 miles south every day.

What did I see? Obviously there are the thousands of houses built during the boom to start with. It's amazing how many people have moved up there. Thousands. You have to see it to believe it. Yuba County dreamed a big dream and everybody came.

But it was the abrupt end of it all that really got my attention. I don't think I saw more than 20 houses being built all day - and most of those were at a D.R. Horton project in Plumas Lake that I am sure they are trying to be done with and move on.

 Mostly, it was acres and acres of dead subdivisions that just jumped out at a driver touring this part of the state. In so many places the streets and sidewalks are in, the utility wires are sticking out of the ground, the street signs are up - and it's nothing but weeds almost as far as you can see.

It's also the houses still awaiting buyers: In Edgewater: A street of 20 houses built by Roseville's JMC Homes with only one house occupied.
 
 In Plumas Lake: a Ryland Homes subdivision called Thoroughbred Acres. Five lovely models and nothing else. Behind it a pile of Ryland flags and poles. I walked up to read the writing on the flags and a jackrabbit ran off. Down Arboga Road, another subdivision by Lakemont Homes. Even the models had dead lawns.   [more]

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9

Alstry Saves FloridaBuilder??? Bad Bad Analysts!!!!!

May 23, 2008 – Comments (8)

As many of you know SPF has been my whipping boy of homebuilder stocks.  The reason is that I believe its management has been the most negligent of all public homebuilders and potentially flat out misled shareholders about the current business conditions and outlook.  [more]

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7

Forget 10% Unemployment....Now 20%!!!!!!!

May 23, 2008 – Comments (9)

My earlier prediction was 10% umemployment by the end of summer.....we have already exceeded that number in a number of counties in CA and the situation is gettng much worse daily.  [more]

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12

Get Ready To Rumble!!!!

May 23, 2008 – Comments (9)

INFLATION, WHAT F...ING INFLATION WE STUPID AMERICANS????  [more]

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11

SPF mgt admits capital limited????

May 22, 2008 – Comments (6)

Excepts from SPF's 10Q:   [more]

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18

Your Choce:...Food, Clothing, Shelter

May 22, 2008 – Comments (9)

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- As nighttime temperatures plunged in Birmingham, Alabama, last October, Dora Bonner had a choice: either pay the gas bill so she could heat the home she shares with four grandchildren, or send the Birmingham Water Works a $250 check for her water and sewer bill.   [more]

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15

America's Middle Class Homeless

May 21, 2008 – Comments (9)

"The way the economy is going, it's just amazing the people that are becoming homeless. It's hit the middle class."  [more]

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19

FloridaBuilder's Financial Lesson

May 21, 2008 – Comments (6)

Let's get a few points out of the way.  First, there is no one more important to the CAPs blogs than FloridaBuilder.  Second, the reason I put his name in the title is I get AT LEAST twice as many hits and a few more recommendations.  Third, my posts are not primarily for popularity but  to simply make people think and not to necessarily agree with my position as socratic debate tends to lead to reasoned  results.  Finally, FloridaBuilder and I are conducting a friendly competition, so my pimping posts are intended to be no different than if we were playing poker and I was trying to throw him off his game or bluffing my brilliant hand.    [more]

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9

NYC Trouble???

May 20, 2008 – Comments (3)

"Imminent" recession may cost NYC 59,400 jobs: study
   [more]

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8

TARGET misses Target???

May 20, 2008 – Comments (3)

Target reported earnings this quarter of $0.74 vs. $0.75 last year.  It beat analysts estimates by a bit but this point will probably be missed:  [more]

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10

WOW!!!! Is it over?

May 19, 2008 – Comments (1)

Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements (Update1)

By Yalman Onaran  [more]

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9

Rumors...Oh My

May 19, 2008 – Comments (2)

Equity offering, sale, debt offering, the rumors about SPF keep flying.  They have even convinced FloridaBuilder to Green Thumb when I am betting on BK.  What a knob I must be!!!!!!!  [more]

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13

FloridaBuilder/Alstry Race Almost Over

May 18, 2008 – Comments (11)

As our horses, FB's WCI and Alstry's SPF, approach the finish line, FB gains new confidence as he just green thumbed SPF!!!  Based on FB's history, I should just go out on the track right now and shoot my horse.  [more]

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10

SPF's Close In Sale

May 18, 2008 – Comments (0)

Most builders have close out sales, not SPF.  [more]

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7

HB Absorbtion Rate.....What Absorbtion?

May 17, 2008 – Comments (0)

Aborbtion rate is the number of houses a builder sells per community.  [more]

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11

Something is SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

May 17, 2008 – Comments (10)

When May's sales at WalMart are flat after the government sends rebate checks and when many of the products(food and fuel) it sells are up 20%, 30% and more......SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!  [more]

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9

A Living Nightmare??? Home Values Down OVER 90%

May 17, 2008 – Comments (5)

For less than the price of a decent used car, you can buy a home in Atlanta today.  [more]

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11

If HOV subprime, what is SPF?

May 16, 2008 – Comments (2)

If HOV is forced to raise capital at 11 1/2% immediately following a $150 million dollar equity offering and its rating is Baa, how will SPF raise money with the downgrade tonight by S&P to CCC.  [more]

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10

How SubPrime is HOV?

May 16, 2008 – Comments (1)

After hours HOV reveals the following:  [more]

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12

Private Theft of a Public Company?

May 16, 2008 – Comments (7)

Today, HOV announced that it is commencing with a Private Placement to raise $600 million dollars to be secured by substantially all of the assets of the company.  The only assets that will have priority over this will be any debt to the revolver bankers.  Do you think the bankers would let anyone get above them?  [more]

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7

More HB Misleading Statements???

May 16, 2008 – Comments (4)

From  HOV's May 5th Press Release just before they sold millions of shares to the public:  [more]

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8

The Deadly Part of the Storm

May 15, 2008 – Comments (1)

Anyone who has ever been in a hurricane knows that second half, after the calm of the eye has passed, is the time when the storm causes the most damage.  [more]

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13

America Failing!?!?

May 15, 2008 – Comments (2)

America is a bunch of concentric systems that need to operate in order to allow our country to function properly.  If these system's fail, America fails.  I will slowly identify these systems out over the next few weeks and reveal their import on our society.  [more]

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12

Keep drinking the Kool Aid!!!!

May 14, 2008 – Comments (3)

When people buy condos, they expect their monthly fees will cover many of the responsibilities that they would otherwise have as single-family homeowners, like cutting the grass and paying the water bills. Now many find themselves nagging each other in the hallways to pay their assessments and adding special fees while haggling over chores. In Miami, Chicago and San Diego, condo owners are adjusting to the economic woes, sometimes by mowing themselves and working shifts for building security — all while lamenting their lost community.   [more]

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12

America's MISLEADING Headlines

May 14, 2008 – Comments (6)

In the past few weeks, I have read a bunch of stories how home sales rebounded in April.  Today, we find out why.....foreclosures up 65% from all ready high levels.  In CA, foreclosures accounted for 3/4 of all sales in April!!!!!!  [more]

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14

You think 1929 was BAD?

May 13, 2008 – Comments (11)

At the worst of The Great Depression, the housing market was never as bad as it is today.    [more]

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15

FloridaBuilder and Alstry neck and neck

May 13, 2008 – Comments (8)

Going into the home stretch....Alstry SPF is gaining some serious ground on WCI.  Alstry has pulled within seven lengths with only a short distance to go.  Can Alstry pull of the impossible?  FloridaBuilder has never been wrong on his BK calls.  Alstry has no contacts to give him that extra boost.  Can sheer determination beat out brains, beauty and brawn?

Its still a long shot but do you believe in miracles?

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7

SPF worth NEGATIVE $10 per share????

May 13, 2008 – Comments (1)

Right now SPF represents to shareholders and investors that its book value is about $13 per share.  Approx $2.9BB in assets and $2.1 BB in liabilities.  If you believe that number I have a suspension bridge I can sell you in any desert in the world.  [more]

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13

FloridaBuilder is CRACKED!!!!

May 12, 2008 – Comments (8)

First , I must precede this post with saying that I have the upmost respect for FloridaBuilder.  I think his presence on CAPS is a huge addition and without a doubt one of its most important players.  [more]

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11

They must think we are STUPID!!!

May 11, 2008 – Comments (1)

Here is the headline tonight:  [more]

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19

American Communities DESTROYED

May 11, 2008 – Comments (20)

“Hundreds of families have lost their homes to foreclosure since the beginning of last year, and in a sign of more to come, at least 1 out of every 16 households has received default notices.”  [more]

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6

Bankruptcies Getting Bigger and Bigger

May 11, 2008 – Comments (1)

First we had bankrupcies increase about 50% in April.  Then we had the largest city in CA to ever vote to file BK.  Now this:  [more]

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14

Sit about to hit the fan???

May 09, 2008 – Comments (3)

Gov. Phil Bredesen said Wednesday that state tax collections have been "deteriorating dramatically" in recent months, and it will be necessary to make another $468 million in budget cuts.

He said that will necessitate cutting 5 percent of state jobs - or 2,011.

Gov. Bredesen said he hopes to have the cuts made on a voluntary basis - with cash payouts used as a retirement incentive.

At a news conference in Nashville, he said April tax collections showed the largest drop since records began to be kept in 1961.

He said the first quarter was the third worst on record, and the second quarter "is certainly shaping up to be worse than that."  [more]

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20

Do You Believe In Miracles????

May 08, 2008 – Comments (3)

From FloridaBuilder's Blog Today:  [more]

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16

Are We Sheep?

May 08, 2008 – Comments (10)

Sometimes when I read the headlines or watch CNBC I think how stupid must the editors think we are?  [more]

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8

Giving Away the Store???

May 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

From MarketWatch in February:  [more]

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10

Banks Squeezing FloridaBuilder's WCI?

May 07, 2008 – Comments (5)

From today's earnings report:  [more]

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8

You Thought Subprime Was Big????

May 07, 2008 – Comments (3)

GET READY FOR THE MUNICIPAL DEFAULTS!!!!!!!!  [more]

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18

One For FloridaBuilder

May 06, 2008 – Comments (9)

FloridaBuilder and I have a bet on which homebuilder will declare bankruptcy first.  My choice is SPF...which was green thumbed by FB when I made my choice and his is WCI.  [more]

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9

How about 50% of workers let go!!!!!

May 05, 2008 – Comments (4)

First Marblehead Cuts Work Force In Half  [more]

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8

5% More Going Going Gone!!!!

May 05, 2008 – Comments (1)

Has anyone noticed layoffs are now being announced as a percentage of total workforce?????  [more]

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9

Another 10% of Employees Fired!!!!

May 04, 2008 – Comments (1)

We are getting closer to 10% unemployment every day!!!!  15% may not be too far off.  [more]

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11

The Mother of All Credit Crisis

May 04, 2008 – Comments (5)

States depend on sales and income taxes for about two-thirds of their revenue, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.  [more]

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9

Unemployment Falling?????

May 02, 2008 – Comments (1)

Last update: 8:09 a.m. EDT May 2, 2008  [more]

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10

When will the layoffs slow down?

May 01, 2008 – Comments (2)

HomeDepot Today:  [more]

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11

Concentric Contraction

May 01, 2008 – Comments (2)

This is a theory I developed a couple of years ago.  Basically a contraction in the economy to a core or center.  By the time we are done, the American Economy could shrink by as much as 50%.  Something we have never seen in our history and its effects will be very profound.  [more]

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