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alstry (35.03)

June 2008

Recs

22

Total Financial Meltdown...SOON??????

June 29, 2008 – Comments (23)

Three major European Banks have called for a financial meltdown in the U.S. in recent weeks.  The are Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays, and Fortis.  The CEO of Fortis said it could happen as early as the next few days to few weeks.  [more]

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12

The Tsunami has arrived

June 28, 2008 – Comments (2)

Some excerpts from a very interesting article:  [more]

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16

A WMD next week?

June 27, 2008 – Comments (5)

Autos report sales next week. J.D. Power is estimating that unit sales will come in around 12.5 million units vs. 16.3 million last year.   [more]

Recs

10

OVER 25,000 jobs cuts announced between three companies in two days

June 27, 2008 – Comments (3)

Siemens, CountryWide, and our buddies at Budwiser.  [more]

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10

Budwiser saying goodbye to 15% of its helpers

June 27, 2008 – Comments (5)

Anheuser-Busch to cut up to 15% of salaried jobs.....

 

When one company cuts 15%, it may be setting itself up for better results. 
When every company cuts 15%, we all lose.

Anyone else see 20% unemployment by the end of the year....we are already approaching 6%.

Recs

8

KB misses on Both Revenues and Losses

June 27, 2008 – Comments (0)

Prices are falling so fast and costs exploding so quickly that HBs simply can't keep up.   [more]

Recs

13

Why the recent HOUSING BULLS were WRONG!!!!

June 26, 2008 – Comments (3)

They failed to appreciate the impact of rising material costs.  Right now, for many of the components of building a house....costs are up 30%, 50% and more....just talk to a roofer.  [more]

Recs

12

Has it finally started????

June 26, 2008 – Comments (6)

Are we finally realizing that our free ride to the ATM credit machine is coming to an end?  [more]

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12

HB CEO's simply refusing to accept responsiblity????

June 26, 2008 – Comments (5)

A comment this morning from Lennar's CEO:  [more]

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8

Le Shot heard around the world

June 25, 2008 – Comments (4)

Tomorrow morning Lennar reports earnings.  It is the first HB to give a full perspective on the Spring selling season.  Analysts have tempered their expectations guiding clients that revenues will be down a whopping 62% to approximately 1.1 Billion dollars.  [more]

Recs

11

Food Crisis in America???

June 25, 2008 – Comments (5)

The chaos that erupted outside Milwaukee County's main welfare office Monday over disaster-related food aid had more to do with a weak economy and crushing poverty in parts of this community than the devastating floods that swept through the state earlier this month, local government and food relief officials said.  [more]

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12

Is the FED lying to us????????????????

June 25, 2008 – Comments (11)

THE FED:  [more]

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11

Le Nar's Revenues Down only 62%

June 25, 2008 – Comments (1)

Right now, according to analysts' consensus, Lennar's revenues are only estimated to drop 62% from last year at around $1.1 Billion.  [more]

Recs

11

Lennar's Revenues Going Le Down?

June 24, 2008 – Comments (2)

Right now average revenue estimates for Lennar's upcoming quarterly report on Thursday morning is $1.1 billion dollars.  Holy pimping wimp chimp batman, how can that be?  They only did that much last quarter when they were working with a much higher backlog log ($1.4 Billion vs. current $1.1 Billion) and most likely a much higher spec count from a bunch of cancellations in Q4.  [more]

Recs

8

Somebody please buy YHOO

June 24, 2008 – Comments (2)

It is my only true long position, not a green thumb short etf, and it is comtaminating my wonderfully consistent bear portfolio.  [more]

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7

HELP ME!!!!--Alstry needs HELP!!!!

June 24, 2008 – Comments (6)

Dow just announced today that they are raising prices 25% after raising prices 20% just a few weeks ago.  Dow makes a lot of stuff and input materials such as fertilizer, adhesives, plastics, and insulation.  Dow is only one of a number of companies that have announced extraordinary price increases in the past few weeks.  [more]

Recs

7

Dow Playing Poker with Prices

June 24, 2008 – Comments (0)

MIDLAND, Mich., June 24, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The Dow Chemical Companywill raise the price of its products by as much as an additional 25 percent in July in an effort to offset the continuing relentless rise in the cost of energy and hydrocarbon feedstocks.  [more]

Recs

11

To whom are banks lending $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

June 23, 2008 – Comments (4)

Airlines....nope they are shrinking and selling assets  [more]

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12

80 Years of Inventory?????

June 23, 2008 – Comments (4)

From today's Miami Herald:  [more]

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11

50% Contraction?

June 23, 2008 – Comments (4)

How much over capacity do we have in retail and banking.  My guess is about 50% too many stores and employees in both.   [more]

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9

Hungry Kids in California

June 23, 2008 – Comments (11)

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Turning dozens of hungry children away from a free meals program wasn't how Vince Harper wanted to start the summer.   [more]

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10

Is the value of Assets Crashing???

June 22, 2008 – Comments (7)

The value of an SUV when dealers no longer accept them as trade ins?  [more]

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12

The Nightmare Begins!!!!!

June 21, 2008 – Comments (9)

Retailers shutting down by the thousands.  Jobs being lost by the millions.  Assets crashing at speeds never seen before.  Prices for food going up up up.  Food riots all over the world.  Fuel prices going up even faster.  Who knows which jobs will be cut tomorrow.  [more]

Recs

7

The Answer in May-Bankruptcy Today?

June 21, 2008 – Comments (1)

...Steve & Barry's eagerly snapped up big-box sites vacated by consolidating chains like Macy's Inc. At a shopping-center conference in May, several mall owners said Steve & Barry's was one of the answers to the industry's problems filling vacant space....  [more]

Recs

12

Only A Chump would buy a Home Builder

June 20, 2008 – Comments (3)

Or should I say Chimp?  [more]

Recs

12

Why Alstry is All or None

June 20, 2008 – Comments (6)

This logic doesn't apply to all, but does apply to many individuals, businesses, and municipalities.  [more]

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14

You CAN'T force people to spend!!!!! $600 is NOT enough!

June 19, 2008 – Comments (4)

What if you owned a business and wasn't sure you were going to have any customers tomorrow?  What if you were an employee and wondered whether your turn was next on the chopping block?  What if you saw your assets, your perceived wealth,... crashing in value?  If you own a home, or shopping center, or office building, or bonds....or even stocks over the past year....your assets are likely falling in value....and materially.  Coupled with your assets falling in value, what if everything you spend money on was going up in price?    [more]

Recs

8

What we are all about to learn-THE HARD WAY!!!!

June 19, 2008 – Comments (6)

For the past seven years, bags and bags of money has been given to American individuals, businesses, and governments.  Some years, the hand outs totalled over 2 trillion dollars or over 15% of the GDP.  [more]

Recs

9

Sharp Slowing in June???

June 19, 2008 – Comments (7)

Industry-wide sales so far in June have been about 20% worse than Chrysler's expectations for the year, according to the memo....  [more]

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13

Public HomeBuilders HOSED!!!!!

June 18, 2008 – Comments (2)

From the WSJ:  [more]

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8

Mortgage Equivalent Rates 13%????

June 18, 2008 – Comments (2)

"The rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.57% last week, up from 6.24% the previous week...."  [more]

Recs

9

PNRA-Postive or Negative Updated Guidance

June 17, 2008 – Comments (3)

The first part of the release states:  [more]

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13

Economic Armageddon

June 16, 2008 – Comments (9)

America's dependance on cheap oil may be one of the least understood vulnerabilities of our society.  [more]

Recs

11

HB Cancellations from Backlog Skyrocketing????

June 16, 2008 – Comments (5)

SPF reported its order trends tonight.  Remember, and order is just that, an order....some builders call it a sale....but it does not become revenues until it closes.  [more]

Recs

9

20% Unemployment...In the Bag????

June 16, 2008 – Comments (10)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The McClatchy Company said Monday it plans to cut about 10% of its workforce, or 1,400 full-time equivalent employees, citing "today's difficult advertising market." In a separate statement, McClatchy also said it May total revenue fell 15.1% on year and its advertising revenue was down 16.6% on year. It added that the declines in print advertising were partially offset by a 12.9% gain in online advertising revenues in May 2008 compared to May 2007.  [more]

Recs

12

Is The Party Over?.....for a while

June 15, 2008 – Comments (12)

Think about how our economy grow over the past 7 years.....over 100% of job growth can be attributed to real estate and health care.  If you think about it, the process was pretty incredible.  Loan Trillions.  Build Millions of Homes and Condos.  Create Massive Big Box Shopping Destinations.  Hire millions of workers to build, sell, and loan to support the growth.  [more]

Recs

12

Rising Oil Prices Hitting Home Builders

June 14, 2008 – Comments (4)

Rising oil prices could be very material regarding materials and HB profits in the upcoming quarter.   [more]

Recs

8

Homes 50% OFF everywhere-Don't be a "chump"

June 14, 2008 – Comments (4)

Be careful of the crap Wall Street is peddling right now!!!!!!!   [more]

Recs

10

Postive Outlook?

June 14, 2008 – Comments (4)

Two years ago, I realized that a huge percentage of our economy was being supported by an unprecedented amount if new credit creation.  Crazy Mortgages, Home Equity Loans, Private Equity Debt, Municipal Debt, ect....  All this borrowing generated an amazing amount of spending which in turn brought the perception of properity to many.  [more]

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11

Why our economy must IMPLODE!!!!!!

June 14, 2008 – Comments (6)

The consumer makes up 2/3 of our economy.  [more]

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9

America Shrinking FAST!!!!

June 13, 2008 – Comments (3)

Real Estate are CRASHING in California!!!!!!  [more]

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12

Is Next Week The Crash????

June 13, 2008 – Comments (11)

From MarketWatch:  [more]

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12

The DANGER period

June 13, 2008 – Comments (12)

I am not sure people really understand the nature of the current problem.  To distill it to its essence, for the past seven years we built an economy based on borrowing.  After we borrowed a bunch, we borrowed more to keep up with our payments.  As long as we kept borrowing and the banks kept lending we kept growing......until debt became so high that the system couldn't lend anymore.  [more]

Recs

14

SPF Insiders Dumping Shares-Why?

June 13, 2008 – Comments (4)

Shortly after its CEO touted its recent offer as the foundation for SPF to grow in the future....   [more]

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11

America Shutting Down-Nobody Cares?

June 12, 2008 – Comments (9)

Auto Companies Shutting Down......Airlines Shutting Down.....Banks Shutting down....Construction Companies Shutting Down.....Mortgage Companies Shutting Down....Retailers Shutting Down......Restaurants Shutting Down  [more]

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12

Retail Sales Terrible!!!!!

June 12, 2008 – Comments (5)

From MarketWatch:  [more]

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9

Weed Infested New Home Communities

June 11, 2008 – Comments (2)

From the Modesto Bee:   [more]

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10

Will the SPF offer ever close????

June 11, 2008 – Comments (3)

Why would a sophisticated investment fund, who already owns a PRIVATE builder, commit to over $600 million investing in SPF's equity for simply majority ownership in a money losing and still very leveraged HB?  [more]

Recs

6

Builders Simply Shutting Down-Inventory Dumping ans Skyrocketing Foreclosures

June 11, 2008 – Comments (5)

 “But she said: ‘Certainly, anecdotally we are hearing from our members they have seen a good uptick in sales activity and that it is concentrated in the areas where you see the biggest decline in prices.’ The price declines, in turn, are most pronounced in the areas with the most foreclosures.”  [more]

Recs

11

10% Interest Rates or $10 Gasoline-You Pick

June 10, 2008 – Comments (2)

At some point we will have to admit inflation is out of control.  $3 Gas, $4 Gas, $5 Gas......who knows exactly what that point is where material changes will have to take place in our society?  [more]

Recs

11

Is a Depression the ONLY CHOICE

June 10, 2008 – Comments (8)

At this point, two choices.  [more]

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11

Time to THINK

June 09, 2008 – Comments (8)

Monday June 9, 9:26 pm ET
Bernanke: Danger of 'substantial downturn' has faded despite big jump in jobless rate   [more]

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11

Same Store Sales #'s-Be Careful

June 09, 2008 – Comments (3)

Headlines this morning:  [more]

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9

Home Builder Standard Pacific shutting down???

June 08, 2008 – Comments (3)

A few weeks ago, I blogged about SPF liquidating an entire community near Palm Springs at over 40% off.  It was a community of million plus homes where NOT A SINGLE home was sold since the community opened over a year ago.  The sale involved 5 models and 8 specs. The homes were liquidated at over 40% off and not a word was said to stakeholders.  [more]

Recs

9

The END of Public Home Builders-Kool-Aid Anyone?

June 07, 2008 – Comments (3)

Or at least the shriveling to a raisin.  [more]

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9

CAPS new HB top dogger blogger

June 07, 2008 – Comments (3)

There is a new sheriff in town and his name is DemonDoug.  [more]

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10

Who is going to be paying taxes????

June 05, 2008 – Comments (7)

Right now, 2008 is on track to be the largest government deficit in US History.  [more]

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8

DemonDoug-Alstry is MUCH MORE Bearish

June 05, 2008 – Comments (3)

Demon, I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried.  It is simply the facts and Alstry is all about facts and only the facts. And somepeople still want to build spec homes in CA??????  [more]

Recs

10

A Costco Analysis-Especially for DemonDoug

June 05, 2008 – Comments (6)

Demon,   [more]

Recs

7

Are we really Sheeple?

June 05, 2008 – Comments (4)

Gas and Food prices are up 20% and we are cheering a 5% WMT and COST same store sales rise.  We are simply witnessing the Costco/WalMart effect.  More and more consumers are concentrating their shopping behavior at those two stores because of cheap gas, clothes, and food.  [more]

Recs

18

Obama is our ONLY chance

June 04, 2008 – Comments (37)

Too many businesses are in too much distress.  Period.  [more]

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9

More SHUTTING DOWN????

June 04, 2008 – Comments (1)

From the WSJ:  [more]

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9

How Much House Can We Afford?

June 04, 2008 – Comments (1)

Wages between 2000 and today have been about stagnant for many and have even fallen for a number of Americans.  Recently, we have read about hundreds of thousands of layoffs and job reductions from companies going out of business or shutting down.  [more]

Recs

15

Where is this all going America????

June 03, 2008 – Comments (2)

Everyday we see another company shutting down, down sizing, or laying off workers.  Workers are being asked to take paycuts.  Revenues are contracting at business after business after business.  Now our local and state government are having to deal with less and less revenues.  [more]

Recs

7

Did TOL Really Beat??? Next Q could be ROUGH!!!

June 03, 2008 – Comments (2)

On May 13th, TOLL guided as follows:

``With conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead. We are still in the midst of finalizing our second-quarter impairment analysis; however, we currently estimate that pre-tax write-downs in FY 2008's second quarter will be between $225 million and $375 million.''

TOLL actually took

"After-tax write-downs totaled $174.6 million, or $1.06 per share diluted."

Which brings impairments in at the low end of the scale.........so on a pre impairment basis, it is very likely TOLL could have missed estimates. Further, before Toll's update, analysts were only expecting a $0.17 loss.   It will be interesting to see how analysts react to this impairment musical chairs.

The real problems now are going forward>>>>>

FY 2008 second-quarter net contracts (after cancellations) totaled 929 homes, or $496.5 million, which were lower by 44% in units and 58% in dollars than FY 2007's second-quarter results of 1,647 net contracts, or $1.17 billion.

As a result backlog is down 50%.

The effect of these cancellations, coupled with the factors above, was to reduce the average price of net contracts in FY 2008's second quarter to $534,000 per unit. This compared to $580,000 and $557,000, respectively, in FY 2008's first quarter and FY 2007's fourth quarter, and $710,000 in FY 2007's second quarter.

On a net basis, TOL's sales are now coming in at around $534K versus $710 last year.

Based on the relatively high backlog conversion, TOL did an excellent job liquidating specs this Spring selling season.

Going forward, with 50% less backlog and much fewer specs, there is little chance of TOL meeting analysts' estimates for revenue declines of only 35%.

With much lower backlog and less specs, coupled with the current trend for more expensive homes cancelling, it is more likely that TOL's revenues for next quarter will come in at least 55-60% below last year.

Do you think this could be a reason why Mr. Toll is worried about the downward spiral in home prices?

``We believe Congress should jump-start demand for new homes with an initiative that will bring buyers off the sidelines and into the market, and thereby stop the downward spiral of home prices."

Before Congress "jump-starts" the demand for new homes, do you think that existing home inventory needs to be cleared out first?

Again, until foreclosures slow, price declines will continue. This will serve to bring equilibrium pricing back sooner than later. Prices should and will settle out when they reach affordible levels for buyers. Plain and simple.

Instead of begging Congress to incentavize to build more homes, maybe Mr. Toll should just slow down for a while until balance comes back into the market. Once that balance comes back, maybe existing homesellers will be able to sell their homes to buy a brand new shiny Toll home.   [more]

Recs

8

Price Cutting Creating MORE Forclosures??

June 03, 2008 – Comments (1)

We have been hearing about a uptick in recent weeks for existing home sales.  Most of it can be attributed to some agressive price cutting by banks trying to decrease the growing REO inventory.  [more]

Recs

11

OIL- $300 per Barrel????

June 02, 2008 – Comments (6)

I promise I don't make this stuff up.................  [more]

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12

The Next Tsunami? Municipal Defaults

June 02, 2008 – Comments (8)

Think the Economy Is Bad? Wait Till the States Cut Back 
New York Times 
 
State and city governments have yet to shrink the economy; indeed, they have even managed to prop it up. They have quietly maintained their spending at pre-crisis levels even as they warn of numerous cutbacks forced on them by declining tax revenues. The cutbacks, however, are written into budgets for a fiscal year that begins on July 1, a month away. In the meantime the states and cities, often drawing on rainy-day savings, have carried their share of the load for the national economy.  [more]

Recs

7

A Paycut as a Bonus?

June 01, 2008 – Comments (1)

Does this sound like me?  [more]

Recs

7

Time to STOP Building??? Foreclosures are rising dummies!!!!

June 01, 2008 – Comments (0)

Many of us have been reading about rising foreclosures.  Many of us have been reading about record price declines.  Many of us are aware that as prices continue to decline, the liklihood of additional defaults increase as more and more homeowners fall underwater on their mortgages.  [more]

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