Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

Varchild2008 (85.27)

January 2010

Recs

5

DPS Q1 Sales might blow you away....

January 31, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

DISCLOSURE:  I own 526 shares of DPS and therefore biased since this is my retirement stock.

What I tell people and continue to tell people and will keep on doing it is no book, no website, no nothing is better than a paying a visit to the "Store."

And in the case of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group that means paying a visit to your local Grocery Store.
And since Walmart gets the vast majority of all grocery business where I reside...here in Michigan......  That means going to Walmart to do my grocery shopping while eyeballing what products are getting sold out.

Sooooooooooo.......

Imagine my pleasant surprise to see EVERY SINGLE  2 liter Dr. Pepper Snapple Group product except Country Time Lemonade and Crush in the Soft Drink Aisle sold out!!!!  100% sell out!

What was sitting on the shelf was just 1 bottle of Country Time Lemonade and some 2 liters of Crush Orange, Grape, etc. and 3 bottles of Diet 7UP Anti-Oxident.

The lone Country Time Lemonade 2 liter...well... I bought it:-)  So that actually became SOLD OUT.

A)  7UP                            SOLD OUT
B)  7UP Anti-Oxident         SOLD OUT (except for 3 bottles of the Diet Version)
C)  A&W Root Beer            SOLD OUT
D)  VERNORS                   SOLD OUT
E)  Reg and Diet  Dr. Pepper        SOLD OUT
F)  Dr. Pepper Cherry          SOLD OUT
G)  Canada Dry                  SOLD OUT
H)  SUNKIST                      SOLD OUT
I)   Country Time Lemonade (Pink and Regular flavors)          SOLD OUT   

There were still plenty of Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Mountain dew, Faygo on the shelves.... Plenty of that...

But.. you want a Dr. Pepper Snapple Group product.... You have to find it in a version less than 2-liter or you are out of luck at that Walmart store.

Talk about.....amazing:-)

I have to say... my personal experience means little in the investment world.... But, it is something that definitely acts as a convincer that maybe I should buy more shares of DPS while the share price remains oversold below $30.00 a share.

DPS should be trading in the 30s awhile ago.... It refuses to..... So this is an opportunity to jump on board a stock that pays 15 cents a share dividend at slightly higher than 2% yield for a possible gain of 3+ pts.

Don't take my word for it.... Just see for yourself which products are getting more attention....
PEPSI, COKE, or DPS?

DPS has made headwinds into Market Share Gains in 2008 and if I am not mistaken also 2009.
I think this trend continues stronger then ever in 2010....what with the Super Bowl Commercial coming up.  [more]

Recs

4

In Depth Analysis of Minimum Wage Law in Michigan

January 30, 2010 – Comments (5)

Using my home state of MICHIGAN.. I will show you how much of a difference it made when in the span of 4 years Michigan raised their minimum wage dramatically year after year.

In the end... I hope to persuade you that minimum wage laws are indeed a massive problem in our economy 

(NOTE: The type of business I will write about happens to have currently a 38% tax cut deal today....But I am not considering that in these calculations because non-media companys don't have this deal and this did not exist back in 2005-2007):

It is October 1st 2005 and you have just finished development of a small, 2-D video game.  You have about $50,000 in cash in your savings account.  Michigan is in a recession and so you found a brilliantly cheap rental for office space in a local office building to set up your Video Games business at $250 per month. 

Since you have ZERO marketing experience and your Web Design skills are poor you plan on hiring a Marketing Major with Web Design Talent for your company.  You send out an application seeking to hire someone for minimum wage.... $5.15 / hour.  Luck would have it in less than a month's time you find a perfect candidate whose willing to work for minimum wage given the promise of immediate pay raises if and when your sales of your video game start to take off.

You also made the agreement with the new hire that he/she would have part property rights for the game making the minimum wage offer even more tolerable.

Your goal for the Game is simple.... It's a POGO style game you plan to find a number of willing hosting company's to agree to buy an indefinite license of your game for their website.  The willing video game hosting sites would benefit in advertisement revenues as more video gamers play the game they licensed from you.

So you must get a lot of publicity and generate a fan base ahead of time to convince web hosts that your game is worth the license fee.  You plan to charge $5,000 for any web host to license your game indefinitely (doing it per year nets you only $500 per year at best and that's not enough to keep your business afloat.  So you giving your license to companys for indefinite use).

So getting your game on as many HOSTING sites as possible is your primary goal and your secondary goal is to keep developing more video games for more licensing revenue.
As your game ideas get more complicated, you'll need to hire more employees to program and do artwork and sound/music for your future titles. 

So you need to generate some cash beyond the $50,000 you have in your savings account!

Here's your expenditures by the end of YEAR 1:

Labor Cost for 1 employee for 1 year:  $19,776
Office Rental Space for 1 year:           $12,000
Marketing/Advertisement Costs:         $2,500
Total Expenditures:                           $34,276

Here's what you earned during your first year:
4 Web Hosting Agreements Signed:  $ 20,000

Your company's first year in business generates a LOSS of $14,276.
You now have $   35,274 left.

UH OH!!!!!!!!!    MINIMUM WAGE LAWS!!!!!!

October 1st, 2006 you now have to pay your single employee $6.95 / hour.

Labor Cost for 1 employee for 1 year:  $26,688
Office Rental Space for 1 year:           $12,000
Marketing/Advertisement Costs:         $2,500
Total Expenditures:                           $41,188

Luckilly you land another 4 hosting company's agreeing to license your game and you finish development of a 2nd video game....but only get the first 4 company's to agree to license that.

4 New Web Hosting Agreements Signed:       $20,000
4 Web Hosting Agreements for the New title:  $20,000

Your company's second year in business generates another LOSS!!! this time: $1,188.
Now you have left: $34,086

To top it off... you don't know how to get yourself in the black without hiring an additional employee in the third year to help with game development.  You need another property to sell or you are going to suffer another loss next year! So...  You hire a 2nd employee in your third year.

UH OH!!!!!!!!!    MINIMUM WAGE LAWS!!!!!!

You have to pay your 2 employees this year:  $7.15/hour

Labor Cost for 2 employees for 1 year:  $54,912
Office Rental Space for 1 year:           $12,000
Marketing/Advertisement Costs:         $2,500
Total Expenditures:                           $69,412

Luckilly you land another 4 hosting company's agreeing to license your 2 games and you finish development of a 3rd video game....but only get the first 4 company's to agree to license that.

4 New Web Hosting Agreements Signed for 2 game titles:       $40,000
4 Web Hosting Agreements for the New title:  $20,000

Your company's third year in business generates another LOSS!!! this time: $9,412
Now you have left: $24,674

And now you face extremely LOW employee morale because you promised wage increases for the 1st employee and the 2nd.... and after 3 years in business of not generating a profit you were unable to deliver on that promise.  Minimum Wage increases are not seen by employees as "Wage Increases" because you didn't increase the wage.... you were forced to increase the wage by the State.

Had  Michigan not raised wages by FORCE... your company could have been raising wages and liftng the spirits of your employees over the years.

So in the fourth year you only manage to convince 1 employee to stay with your company.
You'll have to hire another employee....To top it off it will take 2 years to finish development of your 4th video game title with just yourself + 1 employee doing the work on a sequal to your 1st title...in which video gamers are demanding better graphics, better gameplay, and so on.

UH OH!!!!!!!!!    MINIMUM WAGE LAWS!!!!!!

You have to pay your 2 employees this year:  $7.40/hour

Labor Cost for 2 employees for 1 year:  $56,832
Office Rental Space for 1 year:           $12,000
Marketing/Advertisement Costs:         $2,500
Total Expenditures:                           $71,332

Luckilly you land another 4 hosting company's agreeing to license your 3 games:

4 New Web Hosting Agreements Signed for 3 game titles:  $60,000

Had you completed the more complicated...technologically superior 4th video game you might have come away with a profit this year.... unfortunately, that title could not be developed without forking over an additonal $28,416 for hiring another employee.  That's money you simply do not have!!

You started the year with $24,674.  A far cry from being able to hire anyone.
So...In your 4th year you suffer another LOSS:  $11,332.

Look folks... It is simple math....  The difference in expenditures in 4 years time from FORCED Minimum Wage Increases by the State of Michigan requires that you generate enough profit to offset a LOSS of:

$8,640

And how exactly does a business PLAN to expect to lose $8,640 in 4 short years time from minimum wage increases?  No one can predict WHEN the increases occur and how much they will be increased to.  State Congress in Michigan did not assign October 1st of every year to raise minimum wage.

Minimum Wage was raised on a:  October 1st,  July 1st, July 1st

So there was less than a year's time before the 2nd wage hike occured and I did NOT factor that problem into the math here.  [more]

Recs

7

Mass Effect 1 & 2 selling like hot cakes at Gamestop

January 29, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

Still plenty of copies I suppose of Mass Effect 2 since stores have stocked up on that title big time and lots of people just plain pre-ordered it....

But.. interestingly... MASS EFFECT 1  is getting bought by those who ignored that title but have gotten excited over Mass Effect 2.  My local gamestop = sold out.  So I bought the first one online.

Therefore.... With this as a catalyst combined with Final Fantasy 13 in March....

And *maybe*  *feint possibility*  Singularity does release before the end of this quarter......

What you have is a No Excuse for Disappointing Investors situation.   GME hovering at $19.XX is a big opportunity...

Of course everytime I get excited over how cheap the stock is.... GME disappoints...

Nonetheless... if I wasn't rifling money straight into MTXX of late.... it would have gone to buy either GME or ERTS.  [more]

Recs

1

Let's Play! "U.S. Stock Market is Still Worth More Than..."

January 28, 2010 – Comments (0)

In light of the epic fail of Obama's recovery act creating a massive sell-off spree on the Stock Market, I figured I'd cheer up investors with a little game I call...

U.S. Stock Market is still worth more than..

1)  Curt Shilling's Blood Sock:     Ok! ok!  Not by much...not at all by much....but still!?

2)  Dan LaFever's Future NFL Potential:       What?  Don't know who he is?  He's the star quarterback of the champion Central Michigan Football team... Granted they play in a lesser league than the Wolverines and Buck Eyes....but still????

3)  The BING search engine:   Should you purchase the BING search engine you'd pay considerably less even STILL than the U.S. Stock Market despite the massive selling spree!

4)  President Obama's 2012 Presidential Primary Chances:   With rumors perculating that Hillary Clinton may throw up a Primary Fight...in 2012....That lowers President's Obama's primary chances lower than the value of the U.S. Stock Market! 

5) Any given Blog Post by Varchild2008:       Yes my blog posts are still cheaper...much cheaper than the U.S. Stock Market despite the DOW losing 700 pts in 2 weeks.

6) Rush Limbaugh's chances he'll switch to Sirius/XM:   That's right!  The chances of this are so slim.....that the Stock Market is worth more in value than betting that Rush will switch.

7) Dave and Tom Gardner's Politics:    That's right...when Dave and Tom Gardner got political asking investors to agree with them that the FEDs should buy ownership stakes in Banks with Taxpayer money.... Politics like that....is STILL...STILL....worth less than the Stock Market.

8)  A Cup of Instant Coffee at Starbucks:    Yes!  To buy a box of Instant starbucks you'll pay at least $10.00 before taxes....  And that's worth less...not by much....than the U.S. Stock Market.

9)  Any given Jim Cramer Recommendation:   As much as we value his recommendations...they still are worth less than the U.S. Stock Market during today's sell-off bonanza.

Finally!!!    The #1  reason why you should not panic over the Stock Market cause the Market is still worth more than.....

10)  Putting a PETA Commercial on during the SuperBowl)    You know where they select a random chick to say something dreadfully boring and stupid while stripping?   Well... The U.S. Stock Market is worth more than even that!  [more]

Recs

3

Toyota Motors Failure means buying....Sirius XM?

January 27, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SIRI

What do you think?

General Motors is ready to pounce on Toyota's recall failure and plant production freezes by issuing incentives to buy a GM vehicle.

And GM is partnered with Sirius/XM radio.   When GM went bankrupt the media reporters thought it was over for Sirius/XM asking if there was any life after GM?   

Well... Is there life after Toyota for Sirius/XM?  [more]

Recs

2

Is ERTS kicking ATVI's butt?

January 26, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: EA

The very fact that I am incensed over www.gamespot.com  giving Mass Effect 2  a 9.0 rating speaks volumes about something really important.... 

is ERTS kicking ATVI's butt?  And those invested in ATVI either need to add ERTS or sell ATVI and buy ERTS?  whatever?  I mean ERTS??? <-------

Ok let me make things quick and simple.

A)  I have yet to play Mass Effect much less Mass Effect 2.... but I am reading the reviews and seeing this title for what it is.... A PERFECT 10..  and nothing less.....

THIS IS HOW GREAT GAMES ARE MADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So wake the heck up GAMESPOT......  User Community has this at 9.5.....  anytime you see a stark contrast of .5 or more from a Gamespot editor's scoring..... guess what?  It means yet again the writers of GAMESPOT are absolutely out of touch.

I don't care ... that they gave the game an Editor's Choice Award.. and I do not care about the ratings JANUARY effect where a reviewer lacks the balls to give the first AAA title a PERFECT 10 because it's JANUARY.......

Get off your rear ends... and if you care at all about video gaming.... buy MASS EFFECT & MASS EFFECT 2.....

Cause you know what?   I am going to do just that this weekend.....

Forget PLAYFISH....  As long as ERTS  has BIOWARE.....   ERTS is *better* than ATVI.

It just is....

This is a CATALYST folks.... take ERTS's earnings outlook and flush it down the toilet.... Their own outlook for themselves smacks of absolute travesty...  I mean I heard of "promise low....deliver high" but ERTS is promising abyssmal sales.... and they have some truly OMG!!!!   titles....starting with this one!  and don't forget:

SIMS 3  expansion packs coming out starting in February!!

ERTS continues to take advantage of the iPHONE....

Flat out.... forget the horrible earnings numbers of past quarters.... ERTS is a must buy.  [more]

Recs

7

How to Invest in a SLURPEE stock

January 26, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: F , SVA

I'm coining a new Investment Phrase..... From now on any stock in the stock market that is "planning" to issue a secondary offering and a date has been set....even if a price has not...is a SLURPEE stock.

It works like this....  When you go to buy a Slurpee....a lot of unpleasantries occur before you can finally enjoy the slurpee...

A)  The flavor(s) you want almost always are nearly sold out.  So you have to bang the squirter as hard as you can to crank out enough of the good stuff into your cup.

B)  Then you locate the straw only to discover it packaged tightly in an ever annoying plastic material....rip, claw, bite, several hours later you manage to get the straw out only to stupidly put the thing into your slurpee the wrong side down. 

C) Now you fish out the straw, rotate it around, and plant it correctly....only to discover your hand is now gooey and covered in SLURPEE Sugar Goo...not to mention freezing from the cold gooey SLURPEE gunk.

D)  Then you have to fish out your wallet and pay an exhorbident price for your slurpee after waiting in line for next to forever behind an old lady complaining she can't get her gas pump to work.

E)  Finally!!  you can now enjoy your darn SLURPEE.


Compare that with a secondary offering of common shares to your beloved investment stock.
First the share price slowly dives...crumbles....then the price is revealed for TOMORROW's offering and you see your share price collapse downard....destroying hundreds if not thousands of dollars of VALUE in your stock.

Then....you face the same thing on the day the secondary offering is purchased as your share price matches or even falls below the secondary offering price.

The next trading day might be NEXT WEEK.. so all weekend long you are pulling your hair out crying about what happened to your precious investment like a little baby.

But...next week on Monday something magical happens.... the share offering madness is over and now your share price begins to quickly recover the losses...In fact..in a few short trading days/couple weeks....the share price may have even exceeded higher than where it was before your stock announced the decision by the Board to issue new COMMON SHARES....

Yes... you have a profit once again...post share dillution and can kick back enjoying the fact that your company is expanding their business greatly off the proceeds of the secondary sale.....totally more than offsetting the share dillution problem through increased earnings/revenue/profit.

And that's what happened when (F) Ford a stock I own had it's 2009 SLURPEE episode.

Now (SVA) is in SLURPEE mode.......shares will be issued out tomorrow...*sigh*
DISCLOSURE:  I own shares of SVA and FORD

P.S.  SLURPEE...  Because people/entities/funds will be SLURPING up the secondary offering of shares.
  [more]

Recs

21

Middle Class want JOBS not WELFARE Mr. President!!!!

January 25, 2010 – Comments (8)

Get a load of the crap President Obama wants to waste Taxpayer dollars on...

A) More pathetic "Tax Credits"

B) Double Child Tax Credits

C) Force Businesses to have some sort of workplace thingy...

uhm???????

I can not find anywhere any actual job growth creating policy in President Obama's plans.

Just more of the same..... Welfare...Welfare..Welfare....after more Welfare....

The only people that create jobs are Businesses...and mostly Small Businesses...run by Small Business Owners...

Not "Middle Class"

Instead of AIDING  (laugh laugh laugh) the Middle Class.....  How about some Job Creation you Sociopathic U.S. President from planet 666?  [more]

Recs

6

Buy or Sell (OBAMA) stock? (Using Gallup's #s)

January 23, 2010 – Comments (2)

Using Gallup (www.gallup.com) as the "Stock Market" per say for President Barack Obama:

(OBAMA)
         

SHARE PRICE:          $47.00. Down 4% YTD. Down 22% from 52-wk high, at 52-wk low.
Earnings per share = 1.00.        (since Job Creation is at positive 1)
P/E =                         47.00
Stock Analysts Bearish:  68%
Stock Analysts Bullish:   32%            (This number is based on the Economic Confidence #)  [more]

Recs

8

President Obama's Stock Market Selloff explained....by Varchild...

January 22, 2010 – Comments (4)

First...a Hypothetical.....  Do you think this sell-off is about the Economy + Obama's Speech on various Restrictions on the Banking Sector?  Not to mention the fact that he wants to campaign in 2010 by trying to make American people angry towards Private Sector Businesses rather than Big Government in order to save the Democratic Party from total defeat in November...

"It's The banks!!!!!!!  It's the Banks!!!!!!   We want our Money Back!!!!!!  We want our Money Back!!!!!!"

President Obama isn't an idiot.. he knows that if he rants and rails and does what he did in CHICAGO that he might make people suddenly supportive of his Anti-Business agenda so he can go back and destroy Ameica's Economy further.

But here's the thing.... This isn't about any one OBAMA speech on the Banks... or the fact that our Economy is Crashing....

This is about the fact that Americans now are seeing the President of the United States as a Nutcase.

No. I am not saying YOU SHOULD see President Obama that way...  I am just saying more and more people are seeing it that way... and as a Stock Market Investor... if you are on the wall street floors and you walk in after listening to Obama's Bank Speech.... Post - Scott Brown Election....

You can't but help have this sickening...awful....feeling in the pit of your stomache.. that the American People basically elected a Nutcase.

Do I think President Obama is a Nutcase?  A complete Wacked Out....Insane....Nutcase that can not be reasoned with???

Here's what I think........ I think he's seriously a Sociopath.  [more]

Recs

5

Eagle Bulk Shipping disappoints....so far...

January 21, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: EGLE

I got excited and voiced my excitement over (EGLE) eagle bulk shipping.

So far....*ugh*  It's a loss for anyone that agreed with me and put money down on the call...

So my bad... my apologies....  But, I am still bullish on EGLE......and the overall dry bulk shipping sector.. Unfortunately, my bullishness may have to be reserved for 2011.

The problem with 2010 is we are in the midst of a DOLLAR rally + a laughable economic recovery that NEVER WAS a recovery.... + President Obama and his endless crybaby, tantrums.....

A)  He is wining about the Death of McCain Feingold..... Wining like a baby over Big Oil.... Health Care companys...and in reality.... He's wining that the American People who run and work in these businesses now have gotten back their U.S. Constitutional Freedom to have a voice in politics through Donating Money to further political campaigns.

McCain Feingold was always unconstitutional B.S. and it was one BIG reason I never would have voted for John McCain if it weren't for Sara Palin on the ticket.

B)  Barack Obama is wining about Banks....about wanting to tax the Banks....Take away their profits....

C)  Barack Obama is still wining over his now destroyed Health Care Takeover plans.

D)  Barack Obama is looking to do as much damage to the U.S. Economy as he can in order to "CRASH" the System..... Luckilly, Massachussets voters came out loud and clear in favor of their Country still being a Freedom loving Country.

And now we have Commodity meltdown....dollar rally....massive economic slowdown in manufacturing....everything is crashing hard.....across the board.....

Under these crazy circumstances.... Kinda tough to put on a Smily Face this year in regards to Dry Bulk Shipping... My earlier optimism has to be pulled back....for now.

Should you *sell* your shares of whatever Dry Bulk you may have in your portfolio?
Well... that depends on your retirement scenario.... as I said.. 2011 is a possible good year for the sector....assuming things turn-a-round then.  [more]

Recs

27

Varchild2008 enjoying the BOSTON, MA, TEA PARTY TONIGHT!!!

January 19, 2010 – Comments (34) | RELATED TICKERS: PFE , UNH , JNJ

Hurray  *hic*  Scott Brown *hic*  has won!!!  It's over!!!!  It's over!!!!  OBAMACARE is over!!!!!!!!!!!

*Hic*  apolo *hic* too much wine...so *hic* typeso...typos...are going *hic* to be numerous....

But....*hic*  This is what happens when *hic* Nancy, Reid, Obama hit us.....*hic*  We just turn around *hic* and hit back twice as hard!

Recs

3

Jim Cramer is right... ERTS is a Strong Playfish buy!

January 13, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: EA , ATVI

ok.. I badly badly badly wanted to jump on the bandwagon and say "Jim Cramer is wrong.. see? ERTS went boom!"

However... I can't....    Despite how bleak ERTS looks given their lowered outlook and the sheer dominance that is Call of Duty... The fact of the matter is ERTS finally did something right.

Several months ago.... There was an article on www.gamespot.com  which was an interview between Gamespot Journalist and one of the heads of Blizzard Entertainment.  This interview was about 2 things:

1)  Games that are online, free, and make their money by selling small packages of content to enhance your gameplay and whether World of Warcraft would go that route.

and

2) Blizzard revealed that another MMO was being developed and it wasn't going to be anything like World of Warcraft, so that it would not compete with World of Warcraft.

That #2 revelation combined with #1 got my Spidey Speculative Senses tingling...  I said emphatically that the biggest problem with ATVI is that they do not have anything to appeal to the "Casual Gamers" and it is the "Casual Sector" of video gaming that has grown the most in recent years.   With Apple iPhones and POGO and FREESLOTS and gosh darn near TONS of Casual gaming sites out there.... So, I speculated the secret...secret...MMO is going to be something that will appeal greatly to the Casual Gaming Sector taking full advantage of the newly upgraded Battle.net features to support a robust Casual Gaming Platform.

Of course.. I was *guessing* but that is what Specualting means... pure guessing.

Now SINCE THAT article.... we have seen ERTS buy Playfish.... But guess what?  They aren't the only Video Gaming Stock on the market jumping on the Casual Gaming sector.

On Tuesday, SHANDA GAMES (GAME) made the announcement of their intent to buy Mochi Media.... This is another major player in the Casual Gaming Sector.

ERTS.... then GAME.......       Whose next?  Who cares....

I am extremely bullish on any STOCK in the Video Gaming Sector that jumps on the Casual Gaming Sector... Even if the only revenue you get is the sale of Advertising.... The fact that hundreds of millions could flock to your site tends to translate to a whole lot of $$$$$ revenue.

And in this troubled Video Gaming Sector Economy.....Macro....Casual Gaming is King!

However.. unlike JIM CRAMER... I do not recommend a "Pairs Trade" where you would buy GAME OR ERTS while SHORTING  ATVI.....  And that is because any press release coming out in which ATVI jumps on board the Casual Gaming Sector either through Blizzard's yet to be announced MMO or with Activision purchasing some other Casual Gaming Company.....  Your Shorts would have to cover.

Just like ERTS..... ATVI has a lot of cash on the balance sheet.... and a real smart C.E.O.
So no Pairs Trading....  Not that I ever get into Shorting anyhow.. I don't.... too risky... 

But.... Don't toss ERTS aside because of a  bleak outlook...eventually the benefits of Playfish will reveal themselves.

DISCLOSURE:
A) Varchild may be a Moron but he isn't one in the Video Gaming Sector....
B) Varchild2008 owns 688 shares of ATVI and 270 shares of GAME  [more]

Recs

4

The reverse cynicism strategy or why you buy the lies

January 13, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: TEX , MTW , HOV

The reverse cynicism strategy or why you buy the lies

What do I mean by reverse cynicism?  Well... If "Stimulus Package created/saved 2 million jobs" makes you cynical then you have to ask yourself....ok...why are you cynical?  Certainly it isn't because:

A) I just don't like Obama or I am disappointed in him...

or

B) I am a roid raging Tea Party Reagon Conesrvative...

Cause that's not a wall street line of thinking.... That ain't going to make you a 2010 super investment....

Which is why I am about to reveal an IDEA along with stocks to go LONG for 2010 if you buy into my idea....  Reverse Cynicism...

Whatever Pres. Barack Obama says.... Believe it.... I don't care if there's proof it is a lie...or a distortion... or exaggeration.....  Just pretend to believe it...

So.... What stock do you go LONG on if you believe the Stimulus Package is creating/saving millions of jobs?

How about:

A) The Housing Sector?

or

B)  The Construction Sector?

After all....Pres. Obama pumped his Stimulus plan as not just a Jobs Creator/Saver but one targeted for Construction Jobs..... and was partnered up with a Home Buyer's Tax Credit....

So....  Become Reverse Cynical actually believing in the Bull....that the Stimulus package works..

And what you have are a whole host of beaten down stocks at historic lows:

PHU) $11.20       was $40    5 year chart

SPF) $3.96          was $40   5 year chart

HOV) $4.14         was $60   5 year chart

Construction Stocks like (CAT) are already up quite a ways....  What about:

(MTW)  Manitowoc?

(TGB)  Minerals Mining Stock  Taseko?

(TEX)  Terex Corp  $23.56         WAS $80    5 year chart


So what is my point in all this?    2 sectors:  Housing + Construction/Mining  =  BIGGEST 2010 SECTORS in the STOCK MARKET.....  They are up Big today and up HUGE already this year!

Bottom line.....  Check your Cynicism at the door.... the Market is buying what you hate!  [more]

Recs

3

Top 4 Partnerships GAMESTOP should consider...

January 09, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GME , HOTT , SBUX

Can't compete with Amazon and Walmart??  Gamestop is done?  Put a fork in them it is over?
NAH.... Not after you see my List of Partnerships Gamestop should Consider:

4)  GME + BBI               If Gamestop partners with Blockbuster then they can have Video Game ordering on Television or through your Computer. I.E. compete with "STEAM" and "Cable DVR."

3)  GME + MICROSOFT         Speaking of On-Demand service... What about a monthly subscription fee that works exactly like ZUNE but now allows you to order video games for any of your CONOLE or PC/MAC systems? Also includes used games...

2)  GME + HOTT    Set it up by having GAMESTOP include HOT TOPIC merchandise, accessories, T-Shirts  and sell them while HOT TOPIC sells GAMESTOP video games, used games...Toy Action Figures of Final Fantasy 13 or Starcraft 2 characters?

1)  GME + STARBUCKS    $1.00 off Coupons for a Cup of Starbucks Coffee you pick the flavor when you purchase a Used Video Game from Gamestop and get $1.00 off coupons for Used Video Games at Gamestop when you buy a Cup of Coffee you pick the flavor at Starbucks?   Then create joint Starbucks stores with Gamestop Stores.  Why not?   [more]

Recs

1

You thought I wasn't going to comment on MTXX this week?

January 08, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: MTXX.DL

Welp.. You thought wrong!  (MTXX)......  Of course I'm going to talk about MTXX today.

No news....and yet the January effect has now boosted the stock to $4.67.  Afterhours market shows BID / ASK   $4.70 / $4.78.  Interesting.... but without fundamental positive news to support this rally.. it could be short lived.

What I do not see is:

A)  Insider buying.......  Instead we have some dude insider that sold about 1/3rd of his stake of ZICAM err I mean MTXX back in November.....  Hmm... Could it be.....CHRISTMAS SHOPPING?
Probably needed to fund his purchase of "Rock Band 2" or something...

Too bad he sold it for $4.00 a share when he now could have sold it for $4.68 (intraday high price).

Imagine how much more CASH the insider would have had had he not sold his shares at $4.00 a pop.

Granted... Earnings Report is coming up and you know I am not going to tell you that I am pessimistic on the ZICAM sales......CAUSE I'VE BEEN SAYING THE OPPOSITE for how long now?????

Of course I think Q4 was a great  quarter for MTXX.....  
I'm just kicking myself that I didn't buy more shares of MTXX.... *sigh*

My stake?  about 1975 <---      Which I guess means I gained over half a thousand dollars in today's share price action alone off of MTXX.   Not bad for a full days work right?? oops... I didn't actually WORK... all I did is sit on my butt and watch the share price do its thing.

*sigh*  the hard life of being a shareholder... you put in all these hours of doing NOTHING while the Zicam Company has to bust their butts doing everything....uhm.. and the shareholders get all the money?

The Employees....work hard...... and us Shareholders Profit?       Interesting trade-off...

Of course I jest.... The reality is I stock up on ZICAM and I have upgraded my purchases of ZICAM to 2 Boxes of ZICAM at home and 2 Boxes of ZICAM at work.

Employees work hard.... shareholders profit....shareholders buy more PRODUCT from the Company.....company earns more cash....and hopefully company gives employees better pay!

And I will upgrade my purchase behavior to include ULTRA XCID... that is if I can find it anywhere
:-(  *Sigh*

I don't want to order my drugs OTC  online... I want to walk into Walgreens and buy some Ultra Xcid...  if I don't find it... I ain't buying it.... So here's a tip.... Get Walgreens to stock some.

If not... then I guess I'll have to buy a crap load of ULTRA XCID online and store all of the extra bottles of the stuff in the basement.

P.S.  I take Prilosec and it works just fine... that is until I eat a greasy hamburger and fries and then I am like.. Where's my ULTRA XCID???? Oh that's right.... I went to Walmart AND Meijers and they didn't have it!!  :-(
  [more]

Recs

14

Top 10 Federal Agencies that should be abolished

January 07, 2010 – Comments (6)

10:  Dept. Education      :    Public School System versus Private/Charter Schools... Where would you send your kids if you had a choice between the two in terms of payment (versus being forced to fund the public school whether you're kids are there or not)?

9:  HUD  :   Just another agency looking to provide homes to those who can not afford to keep them....

8:  DHS:  Dept. of Homeland Security?  Has the "System Worked?" ever?

7:  TSA:   See above

6:  Border Patrol:  They aren't given the federal authority to do their jobs....ever....and thrown in prison when they DO their jobs right....So in the end...why keep them?  Seems Amnesty is unavoidable when Republicans AND Democrats are in favor of it.

5:  Antitrust:   They let the BUD INBEV deal happen.... They let Whirlpool take over Maytag.... And I am sure I can come up with plenty more Monopolies that have occured under the lax eye of the Antitrust office.  What.... now it is ok for COMCAST to control NBC Univ.?  I'm willing to bet Antitrust folds.

4:  Medicare/Medicaid/Soc. Security        Ponzi Schemes that are all in the red...insolvent....busted.

3.  SEC:    They are in part in charge of shutting down Ponzi Schemes.  How have they done so far?  MADOFF????  *oops*  Standard Federal Bank?  *oops*  And they refuse to go after the 3 biggest Ponzi Schemes in U.S. History to date.... Medicare/Medicaid/Soc. Sec.

2.  IRS:     This organization simply wouldn't exist if America had either a Flat Tax system or a National Sales Tax system to replace our current "Unfair Tax" system.

1:  EPA:    What exactly are they in charge of other than destroying America's Economy?
Save the environment?  What??? From what?? Carbon Dioxide which Humans breathe out? and is a requirement for plants/trees to survive?

We have an agency that wants to destroy the planet with their mind blowingly stupid ideas of saving it.  wrong minded Cultism reigns supreme here.... Of all the agencies that can KILL Human Kind...The E.P.A. is it... They do not care 1 whit about HUMAN BEINGs....  They only care about the dirt under your feat cause to them the dirt is worth more than you.  You are expendable.

P.S.  Obamacare when/if it happens would be #1 and EPA #2 and etc.  [more]

Recs

2

Go Against the Grain: Buy Gamestop

January 07, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

Disclosure:  Varchild = Moron.....  now moving on...

To not buy Gamestop off this 15+% dip is the wrong move.

Why?

Final Fantasy 13 in March + Singularity + a number of great titles are coming this quarter.

I plan to make my purchase of FF13 at Gamestop... pre-ordering this weekend in fact...

Look at it this way...  The numbers that came out showed that year over year sales were flat.
That's a complete polar opposite of the supposed "declines" analysts were expecting in December for Video Games.  Granted, same store sales droped over 8%.....  So the flat performance was a result of their being more Gamestops.

I think Gamestop got badly hurt in part NOT because video games are not selling....

But because Walmart slashed $10 off the most popular titles for sale this past Christmas Season.

So people went to Walmart... I did...  But, Gamestop can counter this by lowering prices themselves.

I strongly believe Video Games need to drop $10 in price anyhow...across the board.. in 2010.

Hopefully, Video Game Publishers will be willing to drop prices this year as analysts some analysts have wrote about....  Cut the prices.... and games will sell better...

But more importantly... the news that TONS of Wiis and Playstation 3s were sold in Christmas....That's plenty reason enough to buy GME and be bullish on GME....

The period of sales struggle will reverse itself at some point...the MACRO is improving as more and more people buy a CONSOLE.  [more]

Recs

4

The 2010 OMG! stock of the year?

January 06, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: EGLE

DISCLOSURE:  Varchild2008 is a moron and furthermore has done ZERO ZIP NADA research on the following stock.... So don't listen to Varchild2008 no matter what his opinion is... As that's not the point... the point is for YOU to do the research and see if you come to the same or different conclusion....

/ END OF DISCLOSURE


Eagle Bulk Shipping EGLE  <-----  Buy this ahead of Jobs Numbers on Friday.

Why?  What makes me drool at this stock? 

A:  Trades at 6.5 P/E  

B:  They recently took possession of their 27th vessel which is under their control in a profit sharing contract for 10 years with a $18,885 approx.  rate good through 2015.

Me thinks NOW is the time to gobble up Dry Bulk Shipping Sector Stocks.

Steel prices and commodities on the rise means big big big big sales for dry bulk... of course I know nothing about Dry Bulk.... I.E. I am a moron afterall..

But heck.. if you know something about the industry and the commodity inflation situation and so on.... then take a gander at this sector and if it is not in your portfolio and you think it should be then pick a Dry Bulk Stock today while they are still cheap!  [more]

Recs

3

FORD share price is worth more than....

January 06, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: F

FORD share price is worth more than....

1. Activision Blizzard  (ATVI)

2. Shanda Games (GAME)

3. Phulte Homes (PHM)

4. PALM    (PALM)

5. Sun Microsystems (JAVA)

6.  Marshall & Isley Bank,  Citigroup, ING, ETFC, MROE.

7.  Sprint  (S)

8.  AMD  (AMD)

9.  Broad Wind  (BWEN)

10.  Dry Ships  (DRYS)

11.  Martha Stewart's Omnimedia  (MSO)

12.  Force Protection (FRPT)

13.  Cott Corp.  (COT)

14. (PTEC)

15. American Axle (AXL)

16.  (GNA)

17.  THQ & TTWO 

Of course a share price doesn't tell you anything about Market Cap.  But, I am willing to bet without checking that FORD is bigger in Market Cap then all of the above.

Can you say......... overbought!??!?   Not that I care...up....down....same difference aight?

(F) RSI  Tracker:  85.41%     <----- Will it ever stop? Yo, I don't know... Check out the Ford while the Dealer Sells it.    (This stock is Vanilla ice on fire!)  [more]

Recs

2

Varchild's Dire Warnings regarding (F) Ford....

January 05, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Let's begin with the bad news:

1)  KIA's  UVO:    This is definitely the news article I was expecting to see at some point in time.  KIA is perhaps the first company to come out with a competitor product to FORD SYNCH.

Everyone's gonna hop on the bandwagon... Will Ford's Market Share still rise when the Japan automakers and everyone else have their own versions close to if not better than Ford Sync?

2)  Rising Dollar:    Not a big deal... but definitely a negative impact to FORD if the U.S. Dollar rises big in 2010.  This offsets some of the sales momentum Ford may still have in 2010 despite the lack of scrappage programs.

Rising Dollar makes overseas products costs more to buy.

3)  Higher Oil Prices:   Yes, they mean more sales of fuel efficient vehicles.....yes....if people can still afford them...  I don't like rising oil prices....as an investor... unless I am buying oil commodity or Chesepeak Oil or whatever.... 

Consumer Spending momentum will collapse if the price of Oil goes to $90+.  I think the negative impact to consumer spending is going to start soon already with Oil near $82 and Pump Prices set to be higher this weekend than they ever were in 2009.  Can you say $3.00+ a gallon again?

So don't tell me how Higher Oil Prices mean more sales of Electric Cars for FORD.... Not when we saw Peak Oil in 2008 and Ford Sales fall off a cliff until 2nd half of 2009.

What's next??? Back to triple digits oil??? weeee....fun!!!!  I'm gonna be a big buyer of vehicles when Natural Gas is $10.00 per BTU and OIL is $140 again.... woo-hoo!  /sarc. 

So... Don't go 100% full bore EUPHORIC over the January Effect this month.  It won't make you any money when things start to get sticky later on... Instead you'll whine, moan, cry, panic when we face harder times with higher inflation in commodities and unemployment that is still bleak..

All I am saying is reminding investors of (F) that you should do what I do.... Share price up?  Be Sad and Angry about it..... Share price down??? Celebrate!!!     

Do the opposite with your emotions which forces you to speculate against the flow of the direction of your investments...  When things are good try and discover obstacles that might negatively impact your stock.... when things are bad... try to find the light at the end of the long tunnel.  [more]

Recs

2

Prosperity defeats Liberalism and Pres. Obama any day

January 04, 2010 – Comments (4)

January 2009 I opened the year saying that the Conservatives like me who do not like Pres. Obama, must not contribute to making the economy worse...which would result in the passage of Obamacare, Cap and Tax, and ad nauseum.....  A bad and worsening economy acts as a justification for liberalism to exist and grow.

If everybody has a job and those who do not are well to do anyway..... then what is the point any more of a Socialist Welfare Society?  If no one in America needs welfare....why fund it?  How does a politician get elected if everyone is RICH??? and PROSPEROUS???

So I said in 2009 to SPEND SPEND SPEND like drunken giggalos....

Cause if you don't I will...and I have.... I more than tripled spending in 2009 over any year in my life...And I am set to outpace 2009 THIS YEAR...

SPEND your way to a better America for everyone..... Cause with a better economy....Conservatives NOT Liberals get elected....even if Pres. Obama takes the credit.

OF course if the Republican party refuses to run on a Conservative idealistic platform then that jeopardizes elections....and well...can't control that....  but the less there are of Welfare Needy in Society....then the less POWER  Democrat Liberal Socialists can wield...

Cause with Democrats screaming in anger over poor polling numbers at Rassmusen Reports website..... Blaming Scott Rasmussen rather than themselves..... What needs to happen is to start seeing equally bad polling numbers outside of Rasmussen...And that can't happen if more and more people are out of work.....cause we aren't spending....and consuming....

Put it this way..... Can't stop a giver from giving unless the receiver doesn't want any more gifts cause they do not need em anymore...

Spending isn't exclusive to buying more *stuff*...  It includes funding Charities you believe operate on conservative principles....which I do and did in 2009 and urge everyone to do so this year.

Let's replace the populating of impoverished with a population of ridiculously wealthy....tell a neighbor to INVEST their extra COIN especially if they just landed a job this year after being out of work in 2009.....  no sense letting your neighbors have false sense of job security...investing allows one to withstand and insulate themselves from recessions and job loss.  [more]

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement