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Varchild2008 (85.29)

January 2011

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10

Ethynol in your Drinking Water

January 31, 2011 – Comments (13)

The Good Ole EPA wants to force 15% Ethynol into your Car's gas tank even if you drive an early 2003, 2002, 2001 model vehicle (like I currently do).  [more]

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4

Fed Policy Burns Down the Middle East

January 30, 2011 – Comments (9)

http://biggovernment.com/cstreet/2011/01/30/fed-policy-burns-down-the-middle-east-whos-next/

Remember my call for Ben Bernanke to be fired!?!?    I've wanted him FIRED for several years now.
Read the above article for your reading pleasure on how FOOD Price Inflation is contributing to Middle East strife and chaos.

It's a good read regardless of your political leanings.  The article just happens to be my Breitbart's website "Big Government" so take that into consideration if you are a left leaner.

Yet the bumbling blowhard is going on the National Stage to talk to us about the wondrous virtues of Quantitative Easing and how QE2 is doing its job and everyone should be happy for Benny The B and his lame brained economic policy he put into place.....with of course President Obama pushing Benny The B to do QE2.

At a time in which our economy would greatly benefit with widespread DEFLATION, our financial expert is skyrocketing prices on food, metals, plastics (see (DPS) for an article on the rising costs of Plastic), Glass (see www.clickondetroit.com for an article on microbreweries abandoning glass bottles for small metal cans)...

Let's face it.... There is just a gigantic amount of materials, food, etc. out there whose prices are inflating beyond anyone's control....  Causing mass strife in the world....and starvation....And death...

Deflation is the solution and Benny and Obama want to do the opposite.  [more]

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7

Varchild's got this one for 5 straight years (F)

January 28, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Varchild is locked into holding (F) until 2015.

That does not mean I plan to sell all of my shares of FORD as soon as it is 2015 and I can proudly proclaim that I fulfilled Valuemoney's challenge (which is to hold the stock and don't even profit take it much less sell it for 5 straight years).

Pretty interesting times for FORD MOTOR COMPANY.... 

But it all boils down to this....

A)  Ford Motor Company didn't do so well in Europe in Q4.

*SHOCK*    *SHOCK*   *OMG!!!!*

except this was already known to be the case if you paid any attention to the Monthly Reports on Ford Sales in Europe which were reported to be down along with the company market share in that region.  This was NOT a surprise folks.  

B)  Ford Motor Company took a $960 Million hit to their earnings by paying off Debt!!!

*SHOCK*    *SHOCK*   *OMG!!!!*

except this was already known to be the case if you paid any attention to the Monthly Press Releases on Ford which reported on the $960 million charge.  This was NOT a surprise folks.  

C)  Ford Motor Company took a hit from rising Commodity Costs!!!!!!

*SHOCK*    *SHOCK*   *OMG!!!!*

except this was already known to be the case if you paid any attention to commodity prices on metals and copper and other raw materials costs.  This was NOT a surprise folks.  

D)  Ford Motor Company mislead everyone about their Q4 earnings!!!!

*SHOCK*    *SHOCK*   *OMG!!!!*

except then you would have to tell me with a straight face that you predicted 1400 on GOLD and all of the other big spikes in Commodities costs before the end of the year.

The only surprise here would be how PSYCHIC you are and not how FORD mislead anyone.

The earnings loss in Europe amounted to $51 million.   That's a very small loss in the scheme of things.  It's not like there was a gigantic gap here when Ford Motor Company was not expecting a big profit out of EUROPE, just some kind of profit.     But, given the economic situation in Europe kept on surprising economic experts and analysts for how bad it was (remember the recent 2010 Bailouts of GREECE and IRELAND and so on?).... The only issue here is why Analysts never down graded their EPS for FORD despite the Monthly reports on EUROPE sales for FORD.

Much of this was already known....   But after nearly 2 full years of EPS, bottom line beats, the analysts and the stock market investors all wanted to keep expecting the MOON.....

This is what happens when you have so many Wallstreeters treating (F) Ford as if it was some sort of *GOD* Stock.

Almighty Worshipful *GOD* stock.... Bow down and pray to all things *FORD MOTOR COMPANY* as Wall Street has now announced a new Religion...and that religion is *FORD*  

Ohmmmmmmmmmm

So..... We got a very exaggerated sell-off spree....and the panick may continue despite the fact that Edmunds and other Auto Sales analysts have already came out stating that we should expect double digit year over year growth from ALL 6 Car Companies.

So... Join with me in LAUGHING YOUR *BUTT OFF* as the stock tanks down to $14.00 or worse while Ford Motor Company continues to rake in the cash from their double digit North American Vehicle Sales Growth.  [more]

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4

Valuemoney is cheating....(F)

January 26, 2011 – Comments (19)

Just noticed....

Valuemoney challenged me to hold onto my shares of (FORD) for 5 years.....

I said fine if you hold your RED THUMB pick for 5 years....

But guess what?  Valuemoney has (F) Ford marked as a "Top Pick" and this means he's not taking any hits to his score....  A Top Pick means it has no affect on your score.

Does this sound like a fair challenge to you?

It sure doesn't to me.  [more]

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8

Is HANTZ GROUP bad for investors?

January 26, 2011 – Comments (0)

Hoo Boy.. Consider this a "get this off my chest" deal that will have to be written very carefully.. In fact, other than the heading I am not mentioning any companies in this....

Let me break it down for you.

A)  You have a 401K or IRA type investment vehicle for RETIREMENT.

B)  You may also have personal stock/bond/mutual fund/Commodity investment account to Build Cash for Large Future Purchases.

And you are looking for that special (C) option to really grease the gears of diversification strategy and build real long term wealth... the kind of wealth that can send your 12 kids to College.....

So what do you??? Where do you go?

Maybe you did lots of research on your own and you simply have just accumulated more questions than answers....

I know that no one has the time/energy to sit around accumulating knowledge on stock after stock after stock... just not possible.... JIM CRAMER doesn't know every stock there is to know.

But... What if it was YOUR JOB to know thousands of stocks and to keep track of those stocks individually?

Who does that for you?  Who opens the books up and says... You want to know how (MKSI) is doing??? Well...  *WHAM*  There's the information you need to know about their 5 year history track record and where the C.E.O. wants to take the company.

You want to know (AAPL)'s future by exploring their past?  *WHAM*  That's on page 112 through 125.

Wouldn't that be great?  Then you can take these VOLUMES of information with Bookmarks or Post-it notes to mark the Stocks you want to read about...take it all home...and pour through the findings....

And then you can make up your mind about what stocks to invest in based on a Treasure Trove of information and documents....all at your disposal....

That sure sounds great........ Unfortunately.... Companies like...uhm....ABSOLUTELY DO NOT OFFER THIS KIND OF THING...  [more]

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5

Put your Money where your Baked Potato is

January 25, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: WEN , F

Do you love a Baked Potato?  I know I do....  They never give me the kind of Heart Burn, Acid Reflux, that regular fried fries gives me.

You can spatter sour cream and chives and butter and and and and smothered with uhm..whatever I love Baked Potatos.

I also love Wendy's as a stock investment strategy.

Look at Wendy's the same way as Ford Motor Company was back in 2008.

By doing so you begin to get a picture of the Burger Joint that looks like this Comparison to Alan Mullaly:

A)  Ford dumped Volvo onto Geely as part of their comback, ONE FORD, strategy.

A)  WENDY's is seeking to sell off ARBY's as part of their ONE WENDY's, strategy.

B)  Ford loves to experiment with new innovations, technology to entice shoppers...

B)  Wendy's gives you several options besides FRIES when you order a burger... They have reported back in November that they are going to revamp their entire menu!

http://www.nj.com/shopping/index.ssf/2010/11/will_new_changes_to_wendys_men.html

How's that for constantly looking to innovate one's offerings rather than serving BIG MACs and QUARTER POUNDERs for the 1 Quadrillionth time?

C)  Ford seeks to reduce debt, clean up their balance sheet.

C)  Wendy's Cash per share exceeds their debt levels but cash flow does not.  They have negative pre-tax margins.... Much of which is having to do with ARBY's pulling WENDY's earnings down.  ARBY's has been a complete money loser.

When WENDY's gets rid of ARBY's....earnings will automatically start to look much better and their balance sheet will immediately be in the healing stages.

D) FORD still in realtive infancy in the International Growth Stage of a multi-national corporation.

D) WENDY's is also still in a relative infancy phase of its overall international growth strategy....Dealing with ARBY's is the first big step to ramping up their growth overseas.


I'm sorry... Did you say...... DId you say..... Fundamentals of WENDY's are awful?  Sure, you can cite tons of issues with WENDY's balance sheet.... and medicore quarterly EPS results as well...

There's a lot to HATE about WENDY's as an investment and you really don't have to bore me to death with your issues you have....  Cause I already know the reasons NOT to invest in (WEN)...

You already told me those reasons not to invest in WENDY's (WEN), back in 2008 when you said FORD (F) was not a good long term investment strategy.  [more]

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2

Boycotting the SOTU

January 25, 2011 – Comments (1)

Due to the Republican/Democratic Party Prom Night Boondoggle.... I am not going to watch the SOTU.

However, I might make fun of it as I live blog on Michelle Malkin's website.  Of course, I don't have an account to actually do any posting but I can follow along while downing a Heineken.

Speaking of reasons to get drunk....

How about (F) (DPS) (GAME) my portfolio being an extreme FLOP-tastic mess job yesterday....and then today... DPS trades up nicely but (F) and (GAME) flop again like a fish out of water.

Some interesting news is available though for Shanda Games as I have been posting em up on Yahoo Finance Forum for your reading pleasure!
  [more]

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9

Jim Cramer, You're Fired! (BAC)

January 21, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC

Gee, I wonder what Jim Cramer will say on tonight's Mad Money?
Afterall he was extremely bullish on BAC near the beginning of this year saying not to worry so much about the Mortgage writedowns....

Now it appears that it could be all the way to 2012 before the Mortgage Writedowns stop bleeding the heck out BAC's earnings.  That coupled with the ongoing Foreclosure mess that is still in the Court System could limit any real returns until 2012.   Varchild2008 believes JIM 1 year too early with a BULLISH call on BAC.

DISCLAIMER:  I actually enjoy watching Jim Cramer and he has had some advice that has helped me in the past.  So, this is just meant as a harmless joke!

TOP 10 things Jim Cramer will do on tonight's Mad Money in Varchild's opinion.

10)   Not bother to mention Bank of America's earnings report.....

9)  Completely ignore the C.E.O's statements about future writedowns on the Mortgages, and talk up the C.E.O's statements about the "Core Business" improving outside of Mortgages.

8)  Claim that the Stock traded higher at least in the early part of the day so therefore that has to mean something...or something..

7)  Shrug shoulders...claim he made a minor mistake....and march on to talking up Natural Gas Vehicles as the next big investment boondoggle.

6)  Proclaim that somehow this earnings mess means that Jim Cramer's JUNE 2009  Bottom Call for the Housing Market has once again been proven correct.

5)  Proclaim it is the year of Natural Gas....at least the kind Jim Cramer provides each day he misses a call.

4)  Explain poorly how massive writedowns are actually a good thing to right-size BAC's ship....and that therefore the messier the Earnings Reports get for Bank of America, the more share of stock you should buy on the dips.

3)  Tell everyone to stop whining already cause the stock only lost 2% on a day the Nasdaq slipped.

2)  Start rattling off Calls he made in 2010 that worked as an excuse for missing this one.

AND!!!!!!!     THE #1 MOST LIKELY THING JIM CRAMER WILL SAY on MAD MONEY in DEFENSE OF HIS BAC CALL!!!!!!!!!

Drum Rolll.......  Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrum  Crash!

1)  It's Sarah Palin's Fault!  [more]

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5

This stock got slammed for no reason at all (CBOU)

January 19, 2011 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: CBOU.DL

(CBOU)  down 45 cents?  Back to a 9 handle?

Either their breakfast sandwiches are that bad.... or investors are that stupid.

I am willing to bet on the latter and say CBOU has now enterred strong buy territory if someone wanted my ignorant opinion.   Cause CBOU unlike SBUX has Keurig K-CUPs.

And I bought a box of K-CUPs last quarter...

DISCLOSURE:  I owned CBOU shares and sold them for a nice profit in 2010.  I currently own ZERO shares of CBOU and don't have plans to jump back in yet.  [more]

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4

Cup and Handle Pattern: Shanda Games?

January 18, 2011 – Comments (4)

DISCLOSURE:  Varchild2008 owns 1704 shares of (GAME)    But seriously?  Just check my profile for disclosures on what stocks I own with real money.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money right now is talking about (SLB)'s Cup and Handle Pattern.

He describes it as:

1)  A BIG!!!  dip   (the cup)

2)  Then Rally!!!!

3)  Then a slight dip to sideways trading activity

4)  Then the start of a new Rally higher!!

So... Take a look at your stocks in your portfolio and take a look at 1 of my stocks in my portfolio.

Is (GAME) experiencing a Cup and Handle Pattern?

The reason I ask is not to suggest you should buy or sell short this stock.    Rather, I just want to be told by some expert Techie person that I am correct to think like (SLB),  (GAME) is in Cup and Handle Pattern.

Is it?  Would help me greatly here to affirm that it is so I know that I can accurately spot patterns here.

In the meantime.....  I agree with the recent Motely Fool article concerning (NTES).   I wouldn't *yet* be concerned about the new online video games from all sorts of China Video Game companies that are going to surface this year as competitors to World of Warcraft.

The WOW story is not over yet in China, regardless of the success of future new video games from NTES competition.

(PWRD)  is releasing new stuff this year
(GAME)  is releasing new stuff....
(CYOU) same thing....
(GA)  Same thing..

Last year was a year of slow growth compared to what I think the online games market will do in China this year as so many new games come out of Beta/Alpha testing.  [more]

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4

Debt Levels impact P/E Valuations

January 12, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: NIVS , DPS

My Hypothesis is that Debt Levels exceeding Cash usually result in ridiculously cheap P/E, as compared to the historic P/E that company carries when Cash exceeds Debt..... Or against Industry Peer's P/E.

That's my hypothesis and I am being labeled as spouting off pure nonsense..... Really?

" Varchild - I do not care what ScottTrade says about NIVS or any other stock. I'm saying that your statement:  "Whenever Debt Exceeds Cash, the P/E is ridiculously low." is not true. "

Well, one would have to go through 1,000 stocks at random and check their Debt to Cash ratios and their P/E against Peer/Industry P/Es to prove or disprove this.

Labeling my statement as pure nonsense is completely wrong.

(F) Ford Motor Company  and (NIV) carry ridiculously cheap P/E ratios while their Debt exceeds cash levels.

And it does make sense as a Debt level that exceeds Cash usually signals the business is struggling in some way... Either spending too much money on administrative expenses, or other expenditures (hurting their profit/gross margins), or their sales took a dive.

(DPS) Dr. Pepper Snapple Group is also another excellent example proving my point.

When that Stock debuted on the stock market it carried a share price of around $25.50.  Today it is around $36 per share.

As the company's sales helped lower the company's debt, the P/E multiple increased dramatically for Dr. Pepper Snapple Group.

Investors panicked on (DPS) in the beginning punishing the stock to  March 2009 low price of less than $12.00 on intraday basis.

How in the heck is DEBT not a factor to how Wall Street Investors view a Stock's P/E multiple valuation?   The big money players are the ones that can Walk a stock up... They are the ones that can push a stock to a higher P/E.  They are also the ones that tend to abandon/avoid a stock that has too much debt.  [more]

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1

Why is PIMA County Arizona Website Pages Down?

January 10, 2011 – Comments (3)

LET ME EMPHASIZE!!!!!!!!!!!     I have no clue why I get nothing here when I clicked the hyperlink.    I HAVE NO IDEA.....

But...  What I do know is I have no idea if anyone has the previously Cached version of this particular page. 

I'd like to see the previously cached copy page of:

http://www.pima.gov/images/zparks.jpg

Because right now the web page is utterly WHITE SPACE through and through  except for the Heading "Parks, Recreation, and tourism."

Given the spreading rumor today around Sherrif Dupnik from a questionable blogger like source, it would be anyone's interest to know if:

A)  There actually is someone called Amy Loughner that is related to the maniac, lunatic, serial killer Jared Loughner...

and

B)  That she does indeed work at Parks, Recreation, and tourism for Pima County Arizona.

Rumors are being spread by this hyperlink:

http://thechollajumps.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/jared-loughner-is-a-product-of-sheriff-dupniks-office/

A silly wordpress blog... makes several assertions that has gotten lots of buzz over the internet.

Right now all the assertions are meaningless rumor and conjecture with absolutely no evidence that I have seen to make anything up with.....

But.... Given that I am pretty sure my Conservative Ideology isn't responsible for the horrible tragedy in Arizona..... I would really appreciate it if the Journalists would cease blaming Sarah Palin, take a deep breath, and ask themselves a simple question:

If Jared Loughner had 5 run-ins with the law + was well known by professors and students to have mental issues, then why is it that the Police Department under Sherrif Dupnik never referred Jared Loughner to the Mental Health organizations in Arizona?

(GME) remains a strong buy in my view....
  [more]

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2

Is PIMA County Arizona Scrubbing Their Website?

January 10, 2011 – Comments (0)

LET ME EMPHASIZE!!!!!!!!!!!     I have no clue why I get nothing here when I clicked the hyperlink.    I HAVE NO IDEA.....

But...  What I do know is I have no idea if anyone has the previously Cached version of this particular page. 

I'd like to see the previously cached copy page of:

http://www.pima.gov/images/zparks.jpg

Because right now the web page is utterly WHITE SPACE through and through  except for the Heading "Parks, Recreation, and tourism."

Given the spreading rumor today around Sherrif Dupnik from a questionable blogger like source, it would be anyone's interest to know if:

A)  There actually is someone called Amy Loughner that is related to the maniac, lunatic, serial killer Jared Loughner...

and

B)  That she does indeed work at Parks, Recreation, and tourism for Pima County Arizona.

Rumors are being spread by this hyperlink:

http://thechollajumps.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/jared-loughner-is-a-product-of-sheriff-dupniks-office/

A silly wordpress blog... makes several assertions that has gotten lots of buzz over the internet.

Right now all the assertions are meaningless rumor and conjecture with absolutely no evidence that I have seen to make anything up with.....

But.... Given that I am pretty sure my Conservative Ideology isn't responsible for the horrible tragedy in Arizona..... I would really appreciate it if the Journalists would cease blaming Sarah Palin, take a deep breath, and ask themselves a simple question:

If Jared Loughner had 5 run-ins with the law + was well known by professors and students to have mental issues, then why is it that the Police Department under Sherrif Dupnik never referred Jared Loughner to the Mental Health organizations in Arizona?

(GME) remains a strong buy in my view....

  [more]

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3

Why Gamestop IS the best Retail Stock

January 06, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

From the single digit P/E, the ongoing laugh fest that is how the stock market treats the stock (punishing the Stock for producing 3.4% same store growth?)

Hello?  McFly?  Huge reason for the growth besides Black Ops is Kinect.   Why some may shrug off Kinect as just another *game accessory* it is in fact much more than that.  If Microsoft and 3rd party developers produce top quality games with excellent control (Uncaged Fighter ain't it...stay away from that one) then there will be a treasure trove of Gaming Goodness that people will tap.

Kinect should be looked as if Microsoft just released XBOX 580.... or XBOX 360 II... or whatever.  It is another Gaming Console....that just needs the XBOX 360 gaming console to operate on.

Remember Sega CD?  Sega CD was a Gaming Console system, first of its kind to use CD-ROM full motion video gaming.   Yet, you had to own a Sega Genesis in order to play Sega CD games because the Sega CD unit straps on top of Sega Genesis system.

So guess what folks?

Those video gamers that never migrated over to the Sega Genesis but were notivated to want to buy the SEGA CD...... Guess what they did?  They bought the Sega Genesis...and then the Sega CD.

Erhm?  Get where I am going with this?

Video Gamers that are Playstation or Nintendo WII  FanBoys/Girls may be motivated enough by the KINECT  full body motion device that they will buy an XBOX 360 + KINECT.

And where do you think they will go to buy the XBOX 360 gaming console + Kinect?

BEST BUY?????

WALMART????

They don't have hardly anything when it comes to saving money.....  Video Games are expensive!!!

Video Gamers will go to (GAMESTOP)  (GME)  for the XBOX 360 + Kinect... so they can stock up on Used Kinect Video Games.

And guess when all this happens?  Q1 and Q2 2011  when people start spending their Gift Cards.

  [more]

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4

Pulling Sarah Palin Pledge

January 05, 2011 – Comments (2)

Drats....Something happened.... Makes no sense to keep a $1,000 pledge for Sarah Palin should she decide to run for President of the United States when I may end up not voting for her in the primaries... There's some rumors circulating about various politicians possibly entering the race. 
One of which intrigued me enough to pull the $1,000 pledge.

In short... The money won't go to a canddiate that I am not planning on voting for.....

With that out of the way...

I am extremely thrilled to see MKSI skyrocket from when I recommended the stock and put it on my Green Thumb Caps Pick. 

Stocks like MKSI that are clearly cheap, have tons of cash on the balance sheet, and are producing excellent earnings reports.....and are NOT large caps....and have REALLY LOW volume levels....

Those are the stocks that tend to do the best.  Those are the "Hidden Gems" of Wall Street.  [more]

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