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Varchild2008 (84.05)

February 2010



Why Won't the U.S. Stock Market PLUMMET BIG!?

February 25, 2010 – Comments (8)

Why Won't the U.S. Stock Market PLUMMET BIG!?

Answer:  The U.S. Stock Market is the U.S. Savings Account.

What common theme does Alstry mention over and over on his CAPS blog if you pay attention to Alstry?  It is that the Government + Banks control the nation's $$$$$.

Welllllll.......  If that's going on in the minds of Americans since the 2008 Bank Bailout schemes what do you think is going on in people's savings accounts at banks???

It's simple....  People are pulling cash out of their BANKS and stuffing it into the U.S. Stock Market....  There..... If Government and Government's bank bailouts are the culprit.... And no one feels safe leaving their cash in Banks.... They pour it into the U.S. Stock Market...

What about unemployment?  Shouldn't that damage the U.S. Stock Market?  


The amount one gets from a Unemployment Check + heavy reductions in spending  is indeed enough money to stuff a portion of those checks into the U.S. Stock Market.

Look at it this way:


At $32,000 per year of receiving every bit of Government Assistance you can most certainly invest a portion of the Government Assistance money and still get by raising your small family.

Believe it or not.......  The Stock Market's "Plunge Protection Team" exists..... They are the SCARED and ANGRY  American Public that is out of work and the only game in town is the U.S. Stock Market.

The Stock Market is becoming America's only employer..... unless you have a Government job.




Obama IMPEACH-O-METER spikes to ........9????

February 23, 2010 – Comments (4)

May just be a temporary blip but I have to raise the OBAMA IMPEACH-O-METER  to a 9! today.

It appears that are not 1 but SEVERAL instances of "Pay for Play" going on in the Obama White House.   The Democrat running against Arlen Spector in the primaries for Senator has already reported that he was solicited for a job.   Now we have the above article showing a 2nd case of Pay for Play...

And..... that's not all... we have a 3rd pay for play example reported by Michelle Malkin:

You have to balance that against the mental state of someone who says, "I'd rather be a successful 1 term president than a miserable 2 term president."

If he is dead set on being just a 1 term president that means he is set to do anything legal or illegal he pleases because in the end...... he doesn't care anymore... if ever did care....

This just goes back to my Gut Feeling that the guy is a "Sociopath."   He finds no joy in anything and every smile or laugh he makes seems me....

So... we have a 9 out of IMPEACH-O-METER shortly after I lowered it to a 3...... 

As I learn more about President Obama's manipulations into the 2010 election cycle and analyze the upcoming Health Care Debacle Summit.....  I will seek to lower the IMPEACH-O-METER back down because I think it is waaaaaay to early for it to be at a 9.   But given the news...and his recent statements.... given everything I know.... It is most definitely deservedly so... a 9!!!!  [more]



FOX NEWS: Granholm's $1.2 million for 42,000 jobs saved

February 21, 2010 – Comments (1)

Did I hear this correctly?  Governor Jennifer Granholm was just on Fox News this evening during the 6:00 - 7:00 pm. hour regarding Michigan and Mississippi's impact from the Stimulus funds.

No brainer that Governor Jennifer Granholm is giggling like a school girl in favor of the Stimulus package.

But... Let's put things into perspective....  She was talking about 42,000 jobs having been created in Michigan from all of the Stimulus investments done last year as being a sign that the Stimulus Package was a success....

Hmm.. What exactly is the cost of all of the stimulus as it relates to Michigan?

$50 Billion =  General Motors  /  Chrysler - Fiat    Rescue
$1.3 Billion Battery Grants =  Split among GM, Chrysler, Ford.

Now if you forget about the $50 billion and just zero in on the $1.3 billion you get:

$30952.38   per job.

Sounds reasonable.... but what about the $50 billion rescue package to General Motors?
Now we have $1.2 million per job for that $50 billion....

Another way to look at it is right here:

Regardless of how many jobs "Saved or Created" from these 2 big billion dollars investments....
The fact is that the employment situation dipped from November - December by only .4% statewide.

And the real KICKER is much of the improvement in employment centered around the BIG 3 that were recipients of the BILLIONS.    Check out the Detroit - Warren - Livonia chart in my above hyperlink.  Then scroll down to FLYNY, Grand Rapids, etc.

Notice a pattern?    November to December 2009 showed a net INCREASE in unemployment in many areas of the State of Michigan..... while the big 3 getting stuffed with Billions of Taxpayer money experienced some job hiring...

End result is a net +4.4% unemployment versus December 2008  (year over year) and litterally no improvement month to month in the employment picture for Michigan except as it relates to the
BIG 3 automotive counties.

And Governor Jennifer Granholm calls this a success??????  he he he giggle giggle he he he???  [more]



The Reason for Optimism: DOW 15,000 Prediction

February 21, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: F , WHR , PEP

THE REASON FOR OPTIMISM:  DOW 15,000 as BUY and HOLD lives on!

Beacuse of the article above explaining most of my thoughts, I am going to release this BLOG POST I had planned to do after the February 25th showdown with Pres. Barack Obama and the Republicans. 

I have sensed that there are plenty of Motley Fool Pessimists raving against any notion of economic recovery.   I hate to burst your bubble but the economy IS RECOVERING.   Let me ease those thoughts out there with the following chart from GALLUP on Job Creation in February:

46%  not hiring/laying off
26%  hiring
22%  laying off

22% laying off against 72% that are not!!!  and 26% of which are hiring...  How is this not a sign of a recovery is brewing?

"BUY and HOLD"  sorta imploded in 2007 through beginning of 2009.  It became more about "personal survival" and "panic."    Now that the market bottomed in 2009, the mood has shifted away from Day Traders and straight into the hands of buy and hold investors.

A lot of examples are out there for stocks like (WHR)....(F).....(KO)....(PEP)......(MTL)...showing a chart from the market bottom that trends UP long term inspite of short term dips or short term sideways trading.  Just check the charts on a number of stocks...large cap or small cap... There will be some losers but most of the company's have charts with long term gains staring at you in the face.

On March 9th we bottomed in 2009.  So we are close to our 1st "Thank God We Bottomed" Anniversary.  What are you doing ahead of this??  Panicking in and out of Stocks???
Selling out of equities like crazy???

I sure ain't....  Which is why I laughed and laughed when I heard not 1 but 2 radio commercials from 2 different company's talking about how investors should SELL out of their equities!!!

One such company that sure sounded like they were trying to tell people to sell off their shares of stock and instead buy their mutual funds was...........THE MUTUAL FUND STORE.

ADAM BOLD's radio commercial is evidence of the *fear* mutual fund company's would have if more and more of us individuals decide BUYING and HOLDING onto individual stocks was better than any mutual fund Adam Bold could offer you:

Your average investor today is a BUY and HOLD investor and not a DAY TRADER because of this phenomenon.....Also... Mutual Funds are losing favor versus Individual Stocks.

If Mutual Funds were not out of favor or becoming out of favor, why do you suppose then a company like the MUTUAL FUND STORE is asking people to dump their stocks and buy their mutual funds instead?

It's simple......  BUYING and HOLDING  stocks generates the best gains for an investment out of any mutual fund out there by a long shot.  No mutual fund can beat the average stock market investor..... not 1.....

From About.Com article shown above,

"Mutual funds are great vehicles for funding retirement plans and you’ll find them in your 401(k) or other retirement plan at work. They also work for the investor that simply doesn’t have the time or energy to consider individual stocks."

So a 9.2% plunge in the S&P 500  has failed to generate a Bear Market despite countless analysts and so called "ECONOMIC EXPERTS" predicting DOOM and GLOOM.....  And ADAM BOLD's radio commercial. 

Once again a pull back becomes a BUYING opportunity and not a PANIC indused SELL-A-THON.

So get a grip out there....  The world isn't coming to an end... and yet you would think it was reading the following articles:




The reason the U.S. economy is on a path of recovery is because a lot of positive things are going to happen on our way up:

If more businesses lay off then the Unemploymet Tax skyrockets upward....
Once businesses stop laying off and start hiring then the Unemployment Tax plummets.

The upcoming election cycle may be enough to push enough Republicans into power that believe in cutting taxes for small businesses and keeping our country competitive that we simply have TOO MUCH GOOD to look forward to.....

And who knows?  Maybe the $15 billion slush fund known as the "JOBS BILL" will have an actual tax cut in it or something useful for generating job growth long term versus short term stimulus slush fund spending.

Then there's the whole business out there related to the 3 free trade agreements.  One of which happens to be with Korea and deals with South Korea's automotive sector that could possibly generate plenty of jobs in MICHIGAN / DETROIT.... that are much needed jobs.

Of course... I choose to speculate positively on these free trade agreements being a boost for us if and when they actually occur.

If the Republicans take over the Governorship of Michigan.... then again...we can expect Tax Cuts for small businesses to generate even more economic growth in America's worst state for employment.

heck?  Feeling OPTIMISTIC on America SHOULD START with Michigan!  

Check out the ideas for boosting Michigan economy penned by Rick Snyder to see what COULD happen should any of his ideas get adopted by the next Governor or if Rick himself becomes the next Governor of Michigan:

There is TOO MUCH POSITIVE NEWS that looks like it will happen.... too much..... to sit there and stew over 1 thing over another.  Sovereign debt?  Dollar Crisis???   Sure maybe....but I say maybe not!    Prepare for a new brand of HOPE and CHANGE!

In conclusion:   The Naysayers still expecting our economy to crumble and the stock market to go with it are completely forgetting about the American Individual Spirit to survive and grow our economy and be competitive.....  Certain factors can knock us down for awhile....but we can and will rise to become stronger than ever before.

So....  I have my DOW 11,000  prediction in place for 2010.    
How about this???     DOW 15,000  JUNE 2012.    I'll take this prediction to the bank litteraly.  [more]



Varchild Lowers Obama Impeach-O-Meter to 3 out of 10

February 18, 2010 – Comments (5)

I am lowering my "Obama Impeach-O-Meter" to 3 out of 10.  This is the meter that if it strikes 10 then I would be saying it is a 100% guarantee he gets impeached.

Now why am I lowering it?   I consider it optimism that anything truly extreme/impeachable by way of social agenda, political agenda, Obamacare..... Isn't going to happen.

Sure.. many are pointing to reconcilliation and that the Democrats are salivating over how awesomely awesome is going to happen on or near Feb. a TRAP for the Republicans.....

Confusing stuff.....  But the reality is even with reconciliation the Republicans have at least 1 known way to stop it..... That way is to introduce a never ending stream of amendments, forcing the Democrats to get bogged down with having to enact a RULES change through the RULES committee.

By the time they get their RULES change through the RULES committee... I believe it will be far too close to November Elections for Democrats to have the voting power to pass reconciliation.

In short... Signs are pointing to something truly amazing.....

If you knew what I believe is going to happen you would freak out.....probably think I was nutz.....

But let me just say this.....  DO NOT BAIL on the U.S. Stock Market......    I strongly believe listening to these crazy T.V. / Radio Commercials telling you that "All Hope is Lost" and that you should SELL off your shares of Stock and invest in GOLD or something else....

That's bunk!!!!!           Something breathtaking is going to occur fairly soon.   
I'll explain what that is in a few weeks from now.

P.S.   Obama chances for re-election are actually inching higher....unfortunately....but imperceptibly higher.  [more]



Balancing Risk with Reward: 1 TIP for NEWBIEs

February 16, 2010 – Comments (5)

Since I made plenty of my share of mistakes in 2008....I think there is a theme to why I made those mistakes and why I no longer make them today.


If you tell me you are investing in  X stock... or Y stock...  I will say why?
And if you tell me.."'s undervalued... share price is low.... low P/E....."

I will say.... wait wait... What is the reward for you buying shares of this stock?

And you might reply, "Well...share price will eventually trade higher!  much higher!  This one's got plenty of growth!!  Look how cheap the stock price is!"

And I'll tell you that you are completely off base....  That attitude was Varchild2008 and it was wrong!!

Varchild2010  believes the Reward is not "Share Price will go up."

The Reward is actually..."Balance sheet Debt will go away due to recent acquisition that the company made along with progress in their most recent earnings reports in increasing income/profit/revenue."

BINGO!!                   The reward is  a return to a ZERO DEBT  Balance Sheet because of the acquisiton the company made.... and because of improved management performance.

I don't care about the stupid share prices anyhow....  I care about about the health of the company going forward and the recent track history report.... 

The whole business of "SHARE PRICE WILL GO UP"  will just make you sell off your shares when it doesn't happen....and you may be selling a winner out of sheer frustration and impatience.

Sometimes share prices go sideways inspite of the fact the company's underlying business is going WAAAY up.

Great example in my own portfolio is a stock that bottomed in Q4 and basically traded sideways...highly undervalued... then finally an earnings report comes out and share price jumps up BIG.... Stock is trading up 10-13% year to date.

Look at (F) Ford...  <------

Is Investing in FORD like I am invested in FORD.....  Simply because you think the share price will go up?????  Is that really the REWARD here?

Not for me.... I invest in FORD because of the Ford Fiesta, Ford Taurus, excellent management team and progress towards a ZERO DEBT Balance Sheet that was made in 2009.

Simply put... whatever the share price is TODAY is completely irrelevant to where it might be tomorrow...  Stop focusing on what tomorrow will look like in terms of share price and focus instead on how their latest products are shaping up.

Best way to invest is "CHANNEL CHECKING" your investments by visiting the location of your company's products or business or dealerships or whatever...see if customers are just as excited about your company as you are investing in it.  [more]



Varchild's Roadmap Strategy to 50% Returns

February 13, 2010 – Comments (4)

I am not going to STOCK PICK your way to 50% returns.... Instead... I am going to assume you have a portfolio of about 5-10 stocks.   I have 6 stocks.

GOAL:  By the end of the year achieve a 50% return or better on your portfolio.


1)  Calculate your portfolio's year to date returns both on an individual stock basis and an overall percentage.....

Example:  A1 = 10% UP year to date.   While D1 is DOWN 12%  in my fictional portfolio.
My overall percentage in my fictional portfolio is UP 8% year to date.

2)  Now I can set up my game plan by first identifying which one of my stocks are the weakest year to date performers and which ones are the strongest: 

STRONGEST:  (A1)  &  (B1)
WEAKEST:   (C1)  & (D1)

3)  Now do homework on stocks C1 and D1 to determine whether the share price weakness makes any sense given the past performance of the stock, MACRO economic picture in where their business is....etc.

A1 and B1 are making lots of money for you ALREADY this year....  Homework for these should be significantly less than C1 and D1.

Determine:   Are C1 and D1 worth keeping around?   If not then dump them and pour the cash into A1 stock and B1 stock.

However, if they are worth keeping...  Then NEW MONEY goes straight into C1 & D1 stocks with most if not all of it targeting the weaker of the two.

4)  In my situation I have such a significantly weak stock that it makes no sense for me to put new money into anything else BUT that stock.   So I would be 100% into D1 stock until I saw the share price start to pair the significant year to date loss it has.

5)  You know the saying "Sell in May and go away?"   How about do all of your buying before May and Let it Ride?

I'm up 8% already in my fictional portfolio (my real life one is much better).

If my strategy doesn't work.. then I should not see 50% returns... however... I think this strategy is basically what all smart investors do anyhow....  But NEWBIES need to know this stuff so they can see how investor behavior works.

6)  Why not pour money out of a bad stock and into a NEW stock?

Cause then you are gambling..... even if you go into the same sector you may be faced with a stock that is performing so much better than yours year to date that it in fact is OVERPRICED!

Plus... if you stick with the 5-10 stocks you have already chosen.... then you are more well versed in those stocks...  Your strongest performers year to date are that way for a reason....  So why waste time learning a new stock versus dumping your bad stocks into your best performers?

A Bad Performing Stock is either because it is a BAD company...or a company in a BAD sector....or the catalysts are not until late 2010 versus Q1/Q2 2010.  Your best performing stocks probably have catalysts justifying the share price growth happening in 1st half of 2010.

Ok.. Here's what I mean:

STOCK                        CATALYST
(F)            =                   FIESTA

(EGY)       =             Nat Gas / Oil  Wells program that may take ALL YEAR to learn their fate.

F is a good performing stock this year....

EGY is a bad one..... 

Which Catalyst is more Transparent and will arrive sooner?  (F)
Which Catalyst is less transparent and may take all year to understand if their is going to be a big payout for shareholders?  (EGY)

You put money into a stock like EGY as a gamble that LONG TERM their 2009 oil well strategy will pay out.  Or you DUMP  EGY in favor of a more transparent stock with quicker catalysts.

In a 50% returns strategy you want quicker catalysts with TONS of TRANSPARENCY.....
I'd want an (F) stock instead of a (EGY) stock in order to achieve the 50% returns goal.

I love Small Caps... don't get me wrong....  But even with Small Caps same thing applies.  I want to see an obvious reason to invest in a (GLUU) versus a (GME) or whatever...

DISCLOSURE:  I own shares of F.... No Shares of GLUU, GME, or EGY.  [more]



Starbucks is the next Skechers Strong Buy

February 13, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SBUX

WARNING:  This Blog is TYPO and Accuracy Challenged and is not written by someone with an TM or F in front of their names... Nor am I some Professional Analyst... Think of me as just a MORON that simply talks about stocks......

With that said....  I am absolutely amazed so far this year at Starbucks....  The stores are absolutely RIDICULOUSLY packed..... here in MICHIGAN!!!!<--- land of the 14+% Unemployment.

Starbucks and Carribou Coffee located in Royal Oak Michigan seem to both get lots of traffic everytime I "channel check" the stores....  Of course, I prefer Carribou over Starbucks when I get a coffee....  But at the same time I probably spent more money on Starbucks Coffee this quarter than at any point in time in my entire life.

I just absolutely am benefited in having a starbucks place located exactly where I work....
If there was a Carribou where I worked then I'd go there instead... There isn't.... So my money goes to Starbucks...

In short...  I look at SBUX   Starbucks as a stock that you have to Blindfold yourself when it comes to P/E Ratios and 52-Week High/Lows.... You have to just GRIT YOUR TEETH......and Throw money at the stock at whatever share price it so happens to be trading at....

HOWEVER:  I am with JIM CRAMER in the WIDE BUY approach....  When opening a position I spend a tiny amount of cash....  then I wait a week or two to see if share price pulls back.... Then I pounce on the stock with twice as much cash as before....repeat...rinse...wash....when share price starts going up I simply kick back and watch the action.   

If share price gets way out of hand upward like crazy then I may sell some shares or all of my shares especially if I have been eyeballing something more undervalued.  [more]



NYT continues to get hammered...

February 12, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: NYT

When an All Star CAPS player red thumbed NYT... I quickly jumped on board.  The recent price hike made no sense giving the fundamentals of NYT going forward and the existing debt...

Pay for Online NYT content???  I practically get that for free just watching FOX NEWS or any number of conservative blog sites make fun of NYT.

NYT's credibility is ZERO and they haven't changed in decades....they remain heavily in the tank for the Democratic Party.....and for America's Enemies when they reveal U.S. Secrets.

What section of NYT are you fluid in? about SHORTING?  That's where the money is on NYT in the past few weeks.

I'm up over 16 pts now on this red thumb.

If CBS/NBC   are struggling for viewership to watch their FREE news content then how is NYT going to survive forcing people to PAY?

Believe it or not.... Rupert Murdoch was thinking of turning  into a PAY site.
Hopefully he never will... Because I am not paying for content.. And I am a Turbaconduckan Conservative!

So a diehard Conservative like me won't pay for FOXNEWS content....  Think Diehard Liberals will pay for NYT content.... in a massive recession?

Stay away from company's with poor fundamentals no matter what the share price did....share prices tend to get unhindged from reality for very short periods of time before coming back down to EARTH.

That's why JIM CRAMER put out a warning on GARMIN and I put out my RED THUMB on that stock.  [more]



The Irony: 2 Loud mouthes reveal PEAK and TROUGH of the recession

February 11, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: CRTX.DL , EGY


I find it ironic that we have JIM CRAMER as loud mouthe #1 that basically pinpointed the PEAK of the market with his rant....

And then at the absolute bottom in March of 2009... Loud Mouthe #2 shouts at the absolute TROUGH ... BOTTOM....of the market....  Rick Santelli.

Which goes to show that while I like FOX BUSINESS and BLOOMBERG.... CNBC is miles ahead of their competition right now.

As FOX NEWS is to CBS/NBC......  CNBC is to FOX Business / Bloomberg.

No this isn't a advertisement to watch CNBC....  just a reflection...

Oh.. and Loud Mouthe #3  Varchild2008 <-----  Still predicts DOW 11,000 is coming...  believe the rally while others are screaming "Sucker's Rally" cause we are going higher!

Interesting Stocks to Put on Watchlist Tomorrow

1)  QNST:        
  The company cut their share price IPO by 20% and investors closed the share price below that price today.   They are a technology consultation and website design company.. Basically they work with a corporation to improve their sales and marketing and cut costs.

              -------  This is one of them *boring stocks* that could surprise....too early to tell though so watch list this until we have an earnings report.

2)  CRTX:     ---- Respiratory BIOTECH stock that looking at the chart....seems to have bottomed. Earnings report is  March 22nd....  if I am correct that this is a bottom...then tomorrow could be a good time to get into CRTX for that earnings release...  Stock was $10.00+-   1 year ago from today and it sits just above $5.00.   

HOWEVER....  Being the idiot that I am... I haven't exactly done any fundamental research...
This is just based on eyeballing a chart.... So do the fundamentals check first before figuring out if it is a buy/sell here.... Nonetheless it remains on my watchlist...

3)  EGY:     Has this OIL/NAT Gas play bottomed?  Will this ever do anything for investors?  It's a 5 star CAPS stock for years and the share price since 2008 has gone SIDEWAYS!!!!  with a short term $8.00 spike upward....    What's the deal here???  [more]



ATVI: What a Difference a Dividend Makes!

February 10, 2010 – Comments (28) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS , ATVI

Dividend????  Did someone say Dividend????  Oh right... I am well aware of just how shockingly there are lots of investors out there that don't get excited and happy over a company announcing any kind of Dividend payment for the first time.

There seriously is a group out there that thinks.... "Once a company introduces a dividend, that means there is no more growth in the company's business."

But?  What a difference a Dividend Makes when a stock like (ATVI) not only introduces a dividend... but makes it exactly priced the same as (DPS).

(DPS) ==  My Biggest Investment in my Portfolio in terms of $$$$s.

(ATVI) ==   Third Biggest Investment in terms of $$$$s.

Can you guess what will happen now that ATVI has a dividend?  

Well....  Take a look at the share price difference in those 2 stocks above.... Same dividend amount but based on a drastically different PRICE to pay for it...

And therein lies the real TRUTH behind the power of Dividend Investment versus NON-Dividend Paying Companys.

If you are a long term BUY and HOLDER like me....  ( and that does not mean 100% buy/hold as I reserve some cash for trading in and out of other stocks)...

Then what you will do is you will pour your money into whatever stock you have that has the highest dividend yield.

DPS dividend yield is 2.24%    @ over $26.00 per share.

ATVI dividend yield is roughly 5%   @  just under $10.00 a share.

The money goes to ATVI..... all of my money will now be targeted in accumulating ATVI shares.

It will it will it will....... because I get more DIVIDEND bang for my buck with ATVI...versus DPS.

And that's why... Dividend is far better than Share Repurchase programs.  FAR BETTER!

And NO!!!   If introducing a dividend spells DOOM to a company's growth potential then why didn't Coca-Cola get rid of their Dividend a decade ago?

DISCLOSURE:  I own DPS shares and ATVI shares.... I do not own Coca-Cola shares.  [more]



11,000: See? I told you so!!

February 09, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: EA

See?? I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!         DOW 11,000 is going to be achieved and it wasn't just Varchild2008 that made the prediction that:

A:  The Saints will win the Super Bowl


B:  DOW will reach 11,000 by year end..

Now here's why DOW is up 200+ points...

It is simple.....  All of the negativity that pushed the DOW below 10,000 was completely unhindged from reality in terms of 4th Quarter 2009 earnings!!!    Vast majority of stocks....In fact every single sector (but perhaps not subsector) has seen an earnings GROWTH in Q4 2009.

So.......oooooo.......Face the facts!!   Even I was far too bearish at the beginning of the year....

The DOW going up to 10,700 wasn't unhindged from reality.... It was the DOW pull back to 9800 that was completely wrong!!!

The safer less riskier direction in this market is still UP.    The greater risk is DOWN!


All produced an EPS beat!

Oh and anyone that *buys* the ERTS doom and gloom on forward earnings or this laughable "We do not have a blockbuster title in the near future" business....

DO NOT BUY that ERTS EARNINGS are anything but super bullish!

I value ERTS going forward just as highly if not even more so than ATVI.

Consider the following:

A:  The Sims 3  expansion packs are coming!!
B:  Bioware's Mass Effect 2 shipped over 2 million copies after the 1st month!
C:  Dragon Age Origins expansion pack coming soon!!!
D: NFL strike/walk out  may destroy plans for a John Madden Football Game this year... This isn't a bad thing as it will mean 2 years of production time instead of 1 to put out a blockbuster football game.  (this is PURE guess making speculation on my part).

E:  Playfish will be a growth story this year and next...
F:  Sequal to DEAD SPACE  (again speculation)  Apologize for not being 100% sure if this is an ERTS title... but a sequal to DEAD SPACE should valued nearly as highly as BIOSHOCK 2.  [more]



Varchild2008 stands behind prediction: DOW 11,000

February 05, 2010 – Comments (2)

What?  I didn't predict this on Motley Fool Website?  No bigee.. I predicted it nontheless... So, may as well voice it on my blog.  (My prediction was DOW 11,000 before the end of this year, but I am going to update the prediction now).

Revised PREDICTION:  [more]



What to Pay Attention to in ATVI Conference Call...

February 04, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

The following should be on your mind in the upcoming conference call for Activision Blizzard:

1)  When exactly is Singularity going to release?  has this listed as Q2 2010.
Which means it has been delayed a 2nd time now...

    The SINGULARITY issue is a problem here cause if ATVI share price drops on Earnings Report day it will be because there litterally isn't anything for ATVI this Q1.     The other anticipated video game is BLUR and that is set to release April 1st 2010.  Again.... Titles are getting shifted to what appears to be an awfully crowded Q2.

So in terms of forward looking statements.... I'd ignore Q1 statements in favor of Q2 and beyond.

If ATVI plummets on negative statements for Q1 earnings....then that's just ignorance.  I don't expect anything out of ATVI Q1... really... nothing....  The real stuff doesn't start till FOOL's DAY.
And for us investors of ATVI.....  we shall call April 1st.... MOTELY FOOL's DAY.

2)  Starcraft 2  -  Preorders  and release date....   

Need to know if a solid release date will be available for Starcraft 2 and need some transparency here on Pre-orders today.   

Seriously... if I find out that I am the only one in America that has preordered Starcraft 2 to date then I am no longer an ATVI investor.

3) update  <----   Again... need clue on release date and more details of what this could mean for future Blizzard Titles beyond Starcraft 2 & Diablo III

4)  DIABLO III  release date

Need to know if 2010 is still possible for Diablo III release.

5)  WOW Cataclysm  Preoders  <-----  How are these looking?

6) MOBILE Internet Tsunami  <-------   What is Activision Blizzard planning in terms of the ever expanding and ever more complicated Mobile Video Gaming Market... What with the IPAD coming out in March.

Does ATVI see the iPAD as a video gaming console like Analysts are speculating?

7) CHINA  <----      I'd like to know what ATVI thinks about CHINA in general...  When will China get Cataclysm?  [more]



Barack Obama's Symphony of Destruction

February 04, 2010 – Comments (6)

Symphony of Destruction  - Megadeath  - Revised by Varchild2008 to reflect today's jobless reality.

You take a community organizer,
And put him in control,
Watch him become a GOD!!!,
As jobless claims begin to roll!
to ROLL!!!!    to Roooooooooolllll!!!

Unlike former President Bush,
Barack will hike all your taxes,
We dance like street corner bums,
Swaying to Barack's Symphony.... Of DESTRUCTION!!!

Acting like a Robot,
The Democratic Congress Folds,
You warn them with a Phone Call..
They ignore as the debt explodes!
explodes!    EXPLOOOOOODDESSSS!!!!!

Unlike former President Bush,
Barack will hike all your taxes,
We dance like street corner bums,
Swaying to Barack's Symphony.... Of DESTRUCTION!!!

Moody's and S&P start to rumble...
As World Powers Fall,
Loan Defaults Stretch to the Heavens,
But the Tea Party Still Stands Tall!!
Stands Tall!!    Stands Taaaaaaaallllllllll!

Unlike former President Bush,
Barack will hike all your taxes,
We dance like street corner bums,
Swaying to Brack's Symphony.... Of DESTRUCTION!!!  [more]



KO and PEP gone global does not equal growth

February 01, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

Let's put to rest this silliness that a stock like (KO) and (PEP) deserve a P/E of 18 or greater....
Because they are GLOBAL!!!!  And DPS only gets a 14 P/E?????

1st Three Earnings Quarters 2009 over 2008:

(KO)        Negative 12 cents
(PEP)                    2 cents

And Here's NOT GLOBAL (DPS):                8 cents!

That's infinitely superior to Coca-Cola and quadruple the growth of Pepsi.

Look.....   (HANS)  P/E  is around 18 if you assume the stock just MEETS analyst expectations for Q4.

(DPS) isn't being treated with a P/E that is even remotely fair.....  DOES NOT MAKE SENSE!!!

How does a stock like DPS get a 14 P/E today??   4 earnings beats in a row???

A:  They will have their major bottling center in California open in March...

B:  They will have finished the roll-out of Dr. Pepper Fountain Drinks at McDonalds by year's end

C:  They released HyDrive Chew at stores last year...

D:  They expanded last year the CRUSH branded beverage...

It's simple....

GLOBAL  isn't some Investor GOD SEND...  and anything that is NOT GLOBAL deserves to be punished and shunned.....

Global is meaningless compared to Product Quality.... and Quantity of Quality Products.

I contest... that my DPS stock has far more Quantity of Quality Products than HANS, KO, or PEP.

I also contest..... I also challenge to you NON DPS investors out there....this....

Isn't expansion of your company's beverage portfolio far more Growth Orientated than expansion of distribution of existing drinks?

By that I mean... would you rather see Coca-Cola providing the Coca Cola drink to one more Country they have not already done so...... Or would you want to see Coca-Cola produce another Smash Hit beverage product outside of the Soda Brands....Say a TEA or JUICE....that is instantly popular????

PRODUCT trumps mere Location Expansion any day.  

Otherwise General Motors should never have gone Bankrupt.  [more]

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